Le PC est mort. Vive le PC!

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Présentation prospective sur l'avenir du poste de travail informatique et du PC à travers les tendances technologiques et sociétales présentes et à venir.

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Le PC est mort. Vive le PC!

  1. 1. Principales conclusions■ Les tendances de linformatique client ont changé le marché dune focalisationsur les ordinateurs personnels à une perspective plus large qui comprendsmartphones, les tablettes et d’autres appareils grand public.■ Les services émergents du Cloud relient par le réseau des différents appareilsque les utilisateurs choisissent à différents moments de leur vie quotidienne.■ Lère du Cloud personnel marquera un changement de point d’équilibre desappareils vers les services.■ Les applications et les appareils deviennent plus simples à utiliser en premierabord par les utilisateurs. Toute les interfaces avec une courbe dapprentissageforte resteront réservées aux experts et ne seront que difficilement acceptésmassivement. 1
  2. 2. Dans la plupart des secteurs les organisations sont confrontées à des ruptures venant detechnologies émergentes, de lenvironnement politique et légal, de modèles économiquesnouveaux ou encore de changements sociaux et culturels. La prospective stratégique et laveille stratégique essaient didentifier, danticiper et de gérer ces ruptures ainsi que de sepréparer à agir dans ce futur incertain.Nous fournissons des ateliers, des présentations, des rapports et des méthodes permettant demieux cerner limpact des changements de technologie et de société. Citons comme exemple ledomaine du e-Gouvernement avec des éléments tels que le Référentiel e-Société ou le rapportAdministration Demain.Nous sommes aussi acteurs dans la stratégie des SI de lÉtat de Genève pour y apporter uneaide active dans la rédaction et lanimation, ainsi que des valeurs centrales comme: la technologieau service de la société, louverture vers les citoyens et les entreprises, linformation commeressource stratégique et la maîtrise des systèmes dinformation. Lobjectif étant bien entendu depouvoir tendre vers un écosystème dinformation ouvert qui soit flexible, efficace et résilient.Concepts clé:•Veille sociétale et technologique•Prospective stratégique•Conseil stratégique à lÉtat de Genève au niveau des technologies, des métiers deladministration publique et du changement de société•Partenariat actif avec des organisations internes, para-étatiques externes et internationales•Journée de rencontre: Réseaux de personnes et dobjets, Villes numériques, Données publiquesouvertes, Innovation dans le service public, Confiance à lère du numérique, etc. 2
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  4. 4. Lévolution de linformatique et des systèmes dinformation se relit à travers desgrandes époques relativement rapides denviron 10 ans. Les systèmes de chaqueépoque connaissent de acteurs dominants qui innovent et provoquent généralementle basculement vers un nouveau paradigme. Les nouvelles technologies ne balayentpas de façon drastique celles préexistantes, mais celles-ci se stratifient. Cesnouvelles technologies sont souvent en rupture par rapport aux précédentes et lessous-tendent aussi parfois. 4
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  8. 8. Les géants deviennent minuscules.Suspects: microprocesseur, ordinateur quantique.Disque dur, Processeur, Mémoire (Gordon Moore)Les grand ordinateurs mastodontes nés au milieu du 20e siècle on vu leur taillese réduire jusquà devenir invisibles à lœil humain tandis que leursperformances, leur mémoire, leur vitesse ne cessaient de croître de manièreexponentielle.UNIVAC (1952) – 13 tons – 5200 Vaccuum tubes – 1000 word of 12 characters –2000 operations per second 2.25 MHz clockIBM PC XT (1983) 128 KB Mem – 360 KB Floppy disk 5 ¼ in – 10 MB Hard disk– Intel 8088 4.77 Mhz (8087 math co-proc)FXI Cotton Candy (2012) – Packed inside its tiny little frame is a 1GHz ARMCortex-A9 processor built by Samsung, along with an ARM Mali-400 GPU. It alsopacks HDMI-out, WiFi and a Micro USB port— and comes with Android orUbuntu pre-loaded as the OS. It also handles MPEG-4 and H.264 video formats,so you could plug it into a TV and use it as a rudimentary media PC. 8
  9. 9. Lordinateur se dérobe.Suspect: informatique ubiquitaire.Design (Steve Jobs)Peu à peu lordinateur se cache. Devenu esthétique grâce au soin apporté à sondesign, il se fond dans le décor. Il se dissimule dans les objets de tous les jourset dans lenvironnement domestique. Il devient calculatrice, machine à écrire,téléphone portable, télévision.Exemples: Roomba iRobot, Nabaztag, Nabaztag/tag, Karotz 9
  10. 10. Linformatique nest plus quun souvenir.Oubli: Réalité augmentée, GPS, ImmersionLes progrès en informatique graphique ont ouvert la voie à dautres dimensionsplongeant lutilisateur dans des mondes imaginaire et symboliques. Aujourdhuiles techniques de communication mettent en relation quasi physique lescorrespondants éloignés faisant oublier comment sopère ce miracle. Le mélangeentre réalité et éléments fictifs achève de brouiller les pistes.Suspects: réalité virtuelle et réalité augmentée.Exemples: Layar, Tango, SixthSense, WordLens, Google Earth, ConditionONE 10
  11. 11. Linformatique se dématérialise.Internet, Web, Cloud (Vint Cerf, Tim Berners Lee) – l’informatique sedématérialise.Les premiers ordinateurs ont été reliés à des terminaux, eux-mêmes bientôtremplacés par des micro-ordinateurs. Ces derniers ont été connectés entre euxpar des réseaux, puis par des réseaux de réseaux. Tel un morceau de sucre quise dissout dans une tasse de thé, lordinateur se dématérialise dans un nuageinformatique.Suspect: Internet.Exemples: Computer lab 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 11
  12. 12. Lordinateur se prend pour lhomme.Principaux suspects: intelligence artificielle, hybridation homme machine.Intuitivité, Simplicité, Interface, Intelligence artificielle (Joseph Weizenbaum –>Judea Pearl)Lhomme commence par dialoguer avec lordinateur par le biais de langages deplus en plus évolués. Plus tard la machine reconnaît sa voix et la synthétise. Puiselle interagit avec lhomme par lintermédiaire dinterfaces et accroît sesperceptions par le biais dimplants. Désormais elle rivalise avec lintelligencehumaine.Exemples: Doug Engelbart (1968), Xerox Alto (1973), Deep Blue v Kasparov(1997), IBM Watson (2011) , Asimo (2000), Microsoft Clippy (1998), WolframAlpha (2009), Apple Siri (2011) 12
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  15. 15. IBM a annoncé Blue Cloud, un service basé sur Linux, Hadoop, Xen et PowerVM. RightScaleet 3Tera offrent des outils dadministration pour gérer facilement des machines basées dansdes centres de calculs différents; opsource offre également un service similaire.Google App Engine a été présenté en avril 2008 et permet à des applications web en Pythondêtre déployées sur linfrastructure de Google.Microsoft a annoncé récemment Windows Azure et Azure Services Platform, une offresimilaire dinfrastructure de Cloud Computing.Rackspace propose aussi une plateforme de Cloud computing sous la marque Mosso, quiinclut Cloud Sites, Cloud Files et Cloud Servers tandis que ServePath fait de même sous lamarque GoGrid.Des compagnies comme RightScale fournissent un interface pour gérer et accéder plussimplement la plateforme de Cloud Computing de Amazon Web Services.Five Refining Attributes of Public and Private Cloud Computing, Gartner, ID:G00167182, 5May 2009. http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1035013The NIST Definition of Cloud Computing, Recommendations of the National Instituteof Standards and Technology, Peter Mell, Timothy Grance, Special Publication (800-145),September 2011. http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/PubsSPs.html#800-145Stratégie Cloud Computing des autorités suisses, Version pour consultation, USIC, 14novembre 2011. http://www.isb.admin.ch/themen/strategien/00071/01452/index.html?lang=fr 17
  16. 16. D’après le National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) les caractéristiquesprincipales de ce type de service sont qu’il est (1) à la demande, (2) accessible depuis leréseau, (3) concentrateur de ressources, (4) grandement élastique, (5) offre un servicemesuré. Dans ce contexte, trois types des services sont proposés (1) Software as a Service(SaaS), (2) Platform as a Service (PaaS) et (3) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). Lesmodèles de déploiement peuvent être publics, privés, réservés à une communauté ouhybrides. Voir le site NIST Cloud Computing http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/cloud-computing/index.htmlPlusieurs solutions sont offertes par les fournisseurs comme Google, Amazon, IBM ouMicrosoft, mais certaines solutions open source permettent aussi d’expérimenter l’usage deClouds privés comme par exemple Eucalyptus utilisé notamment par la NASA sur Nebula.D’autres offres sont certainement en préparation dans ce domaine.http://open.eucalyptus.com/wiki/Documentationhttp://nebula.nasa.gov/about/Le sujet du Cloud Computing est largement couvert par les médias, les fournisseurs et lesconsultances et se trouve au sommet des attentes exagérées d’après Gartner. Toutefoisl’avancement de cette technologie semble rapide car sa phase de maturité sera atteinte dans2 à 5 ans. 18
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  19. 19. The Mobility Shift — Wherever and Whenever You WantThe march of computing and communications over time has been governed by a series of so-called laws.Moores Law and Metcalfes Law have led to the mobile environment we have today. One important resulthas been the race to ever smaller, more portable and power-efficient electronic devices. What filled adesktop a decade ago now fits in your pocket — only with much more capability. This plays on anothertruism — people like to move around. Users dont want technology dictating where and when they canaccess information, talk to someone or play a game. They want it whenever and wherever they happen tobe.The reality is that many of the traditional form factors for computing simply do not lend themselves to thesekinds of computing needs. In the past, we made excuses about tradeoffs in processing power or weight, buttoday mobile devices combined with the cloud can fulfill most computing tasks, and any tradeoffs areoutweighed in the minds of the user by the convenience and flexibility provided by the mobile devices.One area where smaller has not always been better has been in user interaction.Small devices mean small buttons and difficult-to-use interfaces. While keyboards and mice have beenessential to bringing computing to the masses, they now serve to hold back computing by tying us to ourdesks. However, the emergence of more natural user interface experiences is making mobility practical.Touch- and gesture-based user experiences, coupled with speech and contextual awareness, are enablingrich interaction with devices and a much greater level of freedom. The addition of sensors is making thedevices richer platforms for applications, and is enabling locationspecific or context-specific operation.While mobile devices arent killing the PC, they are shifting the focus for developers and users. Mobilityraises new concerns about security.While, technically, "companion" is a great term for these newer devices, the term has been imbued with aconnation that the devices "need" the PC to be truly useful. This is certainly not the case at all. Thesesystems are fully useful on their own. They do not require using a PC to sync with user data (stored in thecloud) or complete any transaction. These devices are full peers. At any point in time, and depending on thescenario, any given device will take on the role of the users primary device — the one at the center of theusers constellation of devices. 21
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  25. 25. "App-ification" — From Applications to AppsThe Apple App Store was the first app distribution service which set the standard and continues to do so for the otherapp distribution services, it opened on July 10, 2008, and as of January 2011, reported over 10 billion downloads. UntilJune 6, 2011, there are 425,000 third-party apps available, which are downloaded by 200 million iOS users. DuringApples 2012 Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple CEO Tim Cook announced that the App Store has 650,000available apps to download as well as "an astounding 30 billion apps" downloaded from the app store until that date.The ultimate goal of all IT is to deliver some service or application to a user. Users run applications, not operatingsystems or even devices — those are just a means to an end. When the way that applications are designed, deliveredand consumed by users changes, it has a dramatic impact on all other aspects of the market. There is an applicationmetamorphosis under way:■ Changing packaging — Bite-sized, narrowly focused chunks rather than large, all encompassing systems. We willalways need big applications for certain things, but increasingly small, cost-effective targeted applets will cover manyusers needs and provide more flexibility.■ Changing price model — Users have come to expect software at much lower prices, even free. App stores havebecome the equivalent of the dollar store, offering low-cost goods of acceptable quality to those who just need to get atask done.■ Changing delivery models — Today, the vast majority of user-facing application development is Web based.Microsofts new Metro-style applications for Windows 8 will be Web based andwill use HTML5, JavaScript and CSS. Even when applications are not totally Web-based, they often leverage thesecross-platform tools to provide a wider audience.These changes will have a profound impact on how applications are written and managed in corporate environments.They also raise the prospect of greater cross-platform portability as small user experience (UX) apps are used to adjust aserver- or cloud-resident application to the unique characteristics of a specific device or scenario. One application cannow be exposed in multiple ways and used in varying situations by the user.On the downside, there is the real possibility of incompatibility between tools as various users select different apps to dosimilar functions and discover they cant effectively share data. Of course, there is also the ever-present specter ofsecurity issues as applications move and store corporate data in potentially unknown locations hosted by organizationsof unknown stability or means. Companies will have to get ahead of these issues or spend the next decade unravelingthe problems that will crop up. 28
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  32. 32. Eric Schmidt (PDG Google): "Every 2 Days We Create As Much Information AsWe Did Up To 2003" 35
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  37. 37. Consumerization — You Aint Seen Nothing Yet■ Users are more technologically savvy and have very different expectations of technology. Users may notunderstand the details of how technology works, but they certainly understand what technology can do.■ Internet and social media have empowered and emboldened users. Today, consumers provide instantfeedback on what they like to anyone who happens to be listening. They no longer rely on just a small groupof specialist intermediaries to tell them what and how things are, but rather can chose their own unique setof information channels.■ The rise of powerful, affordable mobile devices changes the equation for users. They now have thetechnology in their hands — devices that are truly portable and powerful enough to do real work. However,to appeal to the consumerist masses and get the kind of broad adoption they need, vendors have beenforced to simplify how these devices work.■ Users have become innovators. New devices and applications have become the basic building blocks ofa new wave of innovation. Users are familiar with discovering a new gadget and turning it into a tool —sometimes playful, sometimes useful. Corporate data is making its way onto devices and into applicationsdictated by users, and there may be no way to stop it. Consumerization is leading to a whole new wave ofunexpected consequences.■ The democratization of technology, as users of all types and status within organizations can now havesimilar technology available to them. Organizations that today rely on high-end concierge services for seniorexecutives are being forced to expand those services to all users and, therefore, must rethink how tosupport this managed diversity.Not all aspects of consumerization are positive when viewed through a corporate lens. Users arent verygood at dealing with the details of keeping technology working and secure. They are easily frustrated whensomething breaks or is difficult to use, and they dont like when something they want to use doesnt live up totheir expectations. Consumers are also easily swayed by style and fads, rather than function, and this canlead to disappointment. Whats hot today may be forgotten tomorrow. While this may be fine for individuals,this could prove devastatingly expensive for enterprises. Furthermore, it reinforces a culture in whichmanufacturers are more interested in selling the next device than supporting the last one, resulting in acontinual churn of features and capabilities. This makes it tough for IT planners to build around specificdevices with any level of confidence. Further, supporting and optimizing around the churn adds cost andcomplexity to nearly every IT function. 40
  38. 38. This new personal cloud supports the characteristics demanded by users, such as:■ Being highly mobile.■ Being always available.■ Being user directed — the user is in control of what he or she uses, how he or she uses it, and what he orshe shares with others.■ Embracing multiple experiences and device classes — the device becomes secondary to the service: ■ The user can switch between devices based on situation and need. ■ No device can be considered essential all the time.■ Providing rich interactions and content.■ Providing a seamless shift between computing and communicating.■ Supporting both private and public clouds, thus providing resources when a user needs it, not when ITcan get around to delivering it. The personal cloud will be a federated blending of different services andcloud offerings, presented to the user as a single environment.■ Providing contextual awareness to deliver the services and content to users that are appropriate to theirsituation or immediate needs, rather than overwhelming them.■ Providing operationally obvious computing — no training required: ■ Well-designed, straightforward UXs are respected and craved by users. ■ Simple, task-focused, bite-sized applets. ■ The learning curve is dead. If it takes training, it will be relegated to the specialists andnot be broadly adopted. 41
  39. 39. Recommendations for EnterprisesFaced with these major changes, enterprises must take the following steps to ensure they are not caughtoff-guard as user expectations and demands shift:■ Stop building for physical environments — Select techniques and designs that will support multipleoperating environments. This includes developing expertise with desktop virtualization technologies, butextends to application design and operations. Ensure that user-focused operations embrace the concept ofmanaged diversity (see "Use Managed Diversity to Support the Growing Variety of Endpoint Devices").■ Get ahead of the curve on "bring your own devices" (BYODs) — Users will increasingly be using devicesnot provided by the enterprise to assist them in their daily work. Catching up to and, ultimately, gettingahead of the users in this area is critical if IT is to provide any leadership in the user area. Companies needto establish a BYOD program, including policies and processes (see "Gartners View on Bring Your Own inClient Computing").■ Embrace a self-service culture for users — Where possible, enable users to make their own decisionsabout technology in order to gain a higher level of self-sufficiency without the need for unnecessary hand-holding by IT personnel. Where it isnt possible, work to make it possible. While the IT organization willalways play a role in directing users, providing them guidance and assistance with technology decisions,users are increasingly capable of dealing with many dayto-day needs on their own.■ Look for ways to abstract and secure applications and data, not devices (see "How Will Users Access thePC Apps They Need on Their Alternative Devices?").■ Move corporate resources to a secure cloud — A move to a secure corporate cloud (either internallymanaged or leveraging public cloud services) makes applications and services available to users across theorganization and from multiple locations and devices. This doesnt mean a free-for-all approach to corporatedata or services. Restrictions will always be necessary for certain types of sensitive data. For example,access to customer credit card or patient data must be tightly controlled.■ Adopt browser-based applications with local assistance — the "app" model. While not every app lendsitself to decomposition into smaller chunks or delivery through the browser, companies need to get awayfrom device-dependent, locally-installed applications. At the same time, companies should look for newdelivery techniques to ease the burden of administration (for example, moving away from applicationinstallation by using App-V or other techniques to eliminate the need to store or manage devices). 42

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