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GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




The long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environment
Mike Stephenson and Jonathan Pearce
British Geological Survey/Nottingham Centre for CCS



WWW.GLOBALCCSINSTITUTE.COM
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                       MIKE STEPHENSON

                       Head of Science (Energy) at the British
                       Geological Survey (BGS)
                       - Professor Stephenson runs the Energy
                       Programme at BGS including carbon
                       capture and storage, hydrocarbons,
                       renewables and unconventional energy
                       - Director of the Nottingham Centre for
                       Carbon Capture and Storage, a joint venture
                       between the BGS and the University of
                       Nottingham.
                       - Mike earned a BSc, MSc and PhD from
                       the University of Sheffield and Imperial
                       College, London as well as various
                       postgraduate teaching qualifications.




                                                                     1
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                       JONATHAN PEARCE

                        Job Title at Organisation

                        -Jonathan Pearce, over 24 years experience
                        with BGS.
                        -Involved in CO2 storage research since the
                        early 1990s and has led a number of
                        research projects on long-term geochemical
                        processes and the development of shallow
                        monitoring tools in CO2 Storage.
                        -His research has allowed him to collaborate
                        with other researchers globally including in
                        China, Australia, Canada, South Africa and
                        widely across Europe.




                                                                       2
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                       THE LONG TERM
                       FATE OF CO2 IN
                       THE
                       SUBSURFACE
                       ENVIRONMENT
                         Mike Stephenson
                         Jonathan Pearce




                                           M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




  RELEVANT TO


        • Regulation
        • Public confidence
        • Investment




                              M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE

        Regulation and public confidence
      VERY IMPORTANT



    Building the three-dimensional static geological earth model
    Using the data collected in Step 1, a three-dimensional static geological earth model, or a set of such models, of
          the candidate storage complex, including the caprock and the hydraulically connected areas and fluids shall
          be built using computer reservoir simulators. The static geological earth model(s) shall characterise the
          complex in terms of:
    (a) geological structure of the physical trap;
    (b) geomechanical, geochemical and flow properties of the reservoir overburden (caprock, seals, porous and
          permeable horizons) and surrounding formations;
    (c) fracture system characterisation and presence of any human-made pathways;
    (d) areal and vertical extent of the storage complex;
    (e) pore space volume (including porosity distribution);
    (f) baseline fluid distribution;
    (g) any other relevant characteristics.


                                                                                                                         J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                       BASICS OF
                       STORAGE



                                   M
Basics of long term storage
  GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                              M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE
                       Basics of long term storage




                                                     M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




       STORAGE AND
       TIME

                       M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



Storage and time

                        „Free CO2‟      Physical trap

                                                          Time =?
 TIME                   Dissolved CO2   Solubility trap

                                                          Time =?

                 Carbonate minerals       Mineral trap




                                                                M
Storage CCS INSTITUTE
   GLOBAL
          and time

                              Physical trap




                        CO2




                                        M
Storage CCS INSTITUTE
   GLOBAL
          and time



Physical trap: pressure in a closed system




                         CO2




                                             M
Physical trapping: simulation
 GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                                Storage and time M
Storage CCS INSTITUTE
   GLOBAL
          and time


The first 50 years
After 3 power stations per year (30mt/yr) for 50 years.




                                                          CO2
                                                                M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



The first 50 years




        Pressure – open system   M
Storage CCS INSTITUTE
   GLOBAL
          and time




                 PRESSURE: ‘CLOSED’ SYSTEM
                                             M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



The first 1780 years: free CO2




                        free CO2




                         CO2 injection starts




                                                Storage and time   M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



   Solubility trapping : Sleipner, the next 275 years



                          free CO2                       CO2 in solution




       2070 (20 Mt) Second ceases of reservoir. First repeat survey
       2270 (2.3
       1999          CO2 reaches top
       2001 (4.3Mt) Injectionrepeat survey
       2020

Storage and time: effects of impurities on solubility?        [courtesy Erik Lindeberg, SINTEF]   J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



                       Lab dissolution experiment

                                 Free CO2




                                Saline water




                       195ss
                        90
                        150
                       255sss
                        0135
                          s
                        105
                        120
                        60



[BGS Hydrothermal Laboratory]                  Storage and time   J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




HOW COULD WE DEFINE „LONG TERM‟?
                                                  When...?

                                                 Complete dissolution


                                                  Stabilisation




•   Approaches to defining appropriate time scales of post-closure:
     – When complete dissolution of CO2 occurs?
     – When stability of CO2 migration is reached? (creation of CO2 reservoir)
     – When a “new” THMC equilibrium is reached? (steady- state regime)
                                        20
                                                                                 J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



 CONFORMITY WITH MODELS
• Any assessment of permanency will rely on models
   – Hence the validity of static and dynamic models is critical
• Validity and robustness is tested by comparing model predictions with
  past monitoring data (so-called history-matching)
• Suggested tests:
   – A model matches historical flow/pressure data to within x% of the
      actual measured data.
   – If a static model has not been revised over e.g. 5 years, and still
      adequately enables predictions to match monitored performance,
      then the static model may be considered robust and representative.
• Key issues are:
   – What is adequate? (e.g. within 5% or 10%?)
   – The acceptable range deemed to meet measurements will vary with
      parameter and is likely to be specified as a condition of the storage
      permit
   – What if there is more than one unique solution?
   – Updates to models should be expected as more data is obtained          J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




 CONFORMITY WITH MODELS

  • Models used to predict future performance
    should be those that have been used during site
    characterisation and development of monitoring
    plan (subject to approved revisions)
  • The regulator might want to review the changes
    undertaken to models during the project




                          22
                                                      J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




Things go
down....

CO2
mineralises..




                       Dissolution?   mineralisation   J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE



 DEMONSTRATING LONG-TERM
 STABILITY
  • Model scenarios should be conservative –
    parameters should be far from expected values
    (e.g. 2δ)
  • Define acceptable % deviation from stable value
    (5-10%)
  • Models predict eventual stability of the plume
    with no evidence of potential future leakage
  • Key monitored parameters should be within a
    predetermined range to the future stable values


                                                      J
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




  CONCLUSIONS

• Key trapping mechanisms are:
   – Physical containment
   – Residual trapping
   – CO2 dissolution
   – Mineral trapping
• Demonstrating long-term performance is
  fundamental to transferring long-term liability to the
  State.
• Storage risk goes down with time
                                                           M
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
  Sam Holloway (BGS)
  Andy Chadwick (BGS)
  Mercedes Maroto-Valer (NCCCS)
  Sarah Mackintosh (NCCCS)
  Antony Benham (NCCCS)
  Sarah Hannis (BGS)
  John Williams (BGS)
  Andy Newell (BGS)
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




  QUESTIONS
   You can submit questions
   to us simply by typing
   your question directly into
   the GoToWebinar control
   Panel.




                                 27
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




  Mike Stephenson, Kathy Hill, Jonathon Pearce




                                                 28
GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE




                  www.globalccsinstitute.com
                                               29

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British Geological Survey/NCCCS – The long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environment

  • 1. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE The long-term fate of CO2 in the subsurface environment Mike Stephenson and Jonathan Pearce British Geological Survey/Nottingham Centre for CCS WWW.GLOBALCCSINSTITUTE.COM
  • 2. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE MIKE STEPHENSON Head of Science (Energy) at the British Geological Survey (BGS) - Professor Stephenson runs the Energy Programme at BGS including carbon capture and storage, hydrocarbons, renewables and unconventional energy - Director of the Nottingham Centre for Carbon Capture and Storage, a joint venture between the BGS and the University of Nottingham. - Mike earned a BSc, MSc and PhD from the University of Sheffield and Imperial College, London as well as various postgraduate teaching qualifications. 1
  • 3. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE JONATHAN PEARCE Job Title at Organisation -Jonathan Pearce, over 24 years experience with BGS. -Involved in CO2 storage research since the early 1990s and has led a number of research projects on long-term geochemical processes and the development of shallow monitoring tools in CO2 Storage. -His research has allowed him to collaborate with other researchers globally including in China, Australia, Canada, South Africa and widely across Europe. 2
  • 4. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE THE LONG TERM FATE OF CO2 IN THE SUBSURFACE ENVIRONMENT Mike Stephenson Jonathan Pearce M
  • 5. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE RELEVANT TO • Regulation • Public confidence • Investment M
  • 6. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Regulation and public confidence VERY IMPORTANT Building the three-dimensional static geological earth model Using the data collected in Step 1, a three-dimensional static geological earth model, or a set of such models, of the candidate storage complex, including the caprock and the hydraulically connected areas and fluids shall be built using computer reservoir simulators. The static geological earth model(s) shall characterise the complex in terms of: (a) geological structure of the physical trap; (b) geomechanical, geochemical and flow properties of the reservoir overburden (caprock, seals, porous and permeable horizons) and surrounding formations; (c) fracture system characterisation and presence of any human-made pathways; (d) areal and vertical extent of the storage complex; (e) pore space volume (including porosity distribution); (f) baseline fluid distribution; (g) any other relevant characteristics. J
  • 7. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE BASICS OF STORAGE M
  • 8. Basics of long term storage GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE M
  • 9. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Basics of long term storage M
  • 10. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE STORAGE AND TIME M
  • 11. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Storage and time „Free CO2‟ Physical trap Time =? TIME Dissolved CO2 Solubility trap Time =? Carbonate minerals Mineral trap M
  • 12. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and time Physical trap CO2 M
  • 13. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and time Physical trap: pressure in a closed system CO2 M
  • 14. Physical trapping: simulation GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Storage and time M
  • 15. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and time The first 50 years After 3 power stations per year (30mt/yr) for 50 years. CO2 M
  • 16. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE The first 50 years Pressure – open system M
  • 17. Storage CCS INSTITUTE GLOBAL and time PRESSURE: ‘CLOSED’ SYSTEM M
  • 18. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE The first 1780 years: free CO2 free CO2 CO2 injection starts Storage and time M
  • 19. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Solubility trapping : Sleipner, the next 275 years free CO2 CO2 in solution 2070 (20 Mt) Second ceases of reservoir. First repeat survey 2270 (2.3 1999 CO2 reaches top 2001 (4.3Mt) Injectionrepeat survey 2020 Storage and time: effects of impurities on solubility? [courtesy Erik Lindeberg, SINTEF] J
  • 20. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Lab dissolution experiment Free CO2 Saline water 195ss 90 150 255sss 0135 s 105 120 60 [BGS Hydrothermal Laboratory] Storage and time J
  • 21. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE HOW COULD WE DEFINE „LONG TERM‟? When...? Complete dissolution Stabilisation • Approaches to defining appropriate time scales of post-closure: – When complete dissolution of CO2 occurs? – When stability of CO2 migration is reached? (creation of CO2 reservoir) – When a “new” THMC equilibrium is reached? (steady- state regime) 20 J
  • 22. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CONFORMITY WITH MODELS • Any assessment of permanency will rely on models – Hence the validity of static and dynamic models is critical • Validity and robustness is tested by comparing model predictions with past monitoring data (so-called history-matching) • Suggested tests: – A model matches historical flow/pressure data to within x% of the actual measured data. – If a static model has not been revised over e.g. 5 years, and still adequately enables predictions to match monitored performance, then the static model may be considered robust and representative. • Key issues are: – What is adequate? (e.g. within 5% or 10%?) – The acceptable range deemed to meet measurements will vary with parameter and is likely to be specified as a condition of the storage permit – What if there is more than one unique solution? – Updates to models should be expected as more data is obtained J
  • 23. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CONFORMITY WITH MODELS • Models used to predict future performance should be those that have been used during site characterisation and development of monitoring plan (subject to approved revisions) • The regulator might want to review the changes undertaken to models during the project 22 J
  • 24. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Things go down.... CO2 mineralises.. Dissolution? mineralisation J
  • 25. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE DEMONSTRATING LONG-TERM STABILITY • Model scenarios should be conservative – parameters should be far from expected values (e.g. 2δ) • Define acceptable % deviation from stable value (5-10%) • Models predict eventual stability of the plume with no evidence of potential future leakage • Key monitored parameters should be within a predetermined range to the future stable values J
  • 26. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE CONCLUSIONS • Key trapping mechanisms are: – Physical containment – Residual trapping – CO2 dissolution – Mineral trapping • Demonstrating long-term performance is fundamental to transferring long-term liability to the State. • Storage risk goes down with time M
  • 27. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Sam Holloway (BGS) Andy Chadwick (BGS) Mercedes Maroto-Valer (NCCCS) Sarah Mackintosh (NCCCS) Antony Benham (NCCCS) Sarah Hannis (BGS) John Williams (BGS) Andy Newell (BGS)
  • 28. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE QUESTIONS You can submit questions to us simply by typing your question directly into the GoToWebinar control Panel. 27
  • 29. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE Mike Stephenson, Kathy Hill, Jonathon Pearce 28
  • 30. GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE www.globalccsinstitute.com 29