Berry Climate Change Projections And Implication

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Presentation at "The River, the Bay and the Strait" public forum, 5 October, 2008, Hervey Bay

Technology News & Politics

Climate Change Projections and Implication The River, the Bay and the Strait Forum

Up Front ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Problems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

SimCLIM Family Tree VANDACLIM ( island version ) Source: CLIMsystems BDCLIM ( Bangladesh ) VANDACLIM ( fictitious country ) OZCLIM (CSIRO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CLIMPACTS CHAMP (New Zealand ) CANCLIM ( Canada ) SimCLIM SriLankaCLIM HOTSPOTS (NZ) TopoCLIM Hard-wired Open-system DryCLIM COMMERCIAL VERSION

Climate Modelling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Emission Scenarios Source: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm

2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny

Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm): 1374.0 – 1550.6 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 2100 1727.2 – 1903.8 1197.5 – 1374.0 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 2020 1550.6 - 1727.2 1727.2 – 1903.8 Maleny 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kenilworth 1020.9 – 1197.5 1020.9 – 1197.5 Imbil 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kandanga 2050 2008

Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm/year): 535 702 Monto 550 725 Gayndah 612 790 Kingaroy 955 1185 Gympie 920 1148 Maryborough 840 1060 Bundaberg 2100 1990

2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny

Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change ( 0 C) : 29.1 – 30.4 29.1 – 30.4 31.7 – 33.0 31.7 – 33.0 2100 22.7 – 24.0 24.0 – 25.3 25.3 – 26.6 25.3 – 26.6 2020 24.0 – 25.3 21.5 – 22.7 Maleny 25.3 – 26.6 22.7 – 24.0 Kenilworth 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Imbil 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Kandanga 2050 2008

Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change: 30.71 - 34.66 27.33 Monto 30.98 - 34.95 27.59 Gayndah 28.21 - 32.19 24.82 Kingaroy 28.82 - 32.38 25.78 Gympie 29.49 - 32.99 26.50 Maryborough 29.71 - 33.31 26.63 Bundaberg 2100 1990

Number of days over 35 0 C /year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 72 2100 45 20 12 7 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008

Number of days over 40 0 C / year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 14 2100 6 1.7 0.7 0.1 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008

Number of days over 35 0 C / year 164 118 62 28 19 Monto 193 140 77 33 22 Gayndah 108 65 24 7 4 Kingaroy 91 114 123 2100 59 30 14 10 Gympie 66 37 5 3 Maryborough 59 10 2 1 Bundaberg 2075 2050 2020 1990

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Future Research ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Berry Climate Change Projections And Implication

1. Climate Change Projections and Implication The River, the Bay and the Strait Forum

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4. SimCLIM Family Tree VANDACLIM ( island version ) Source: CLIMsystems BDCLIM ( Bangladesh ) VANDACLIM ( fictitious country ) OZCLIM (CSIRO) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CLIMPACTS CHAMP (New Zealand ) CANCLIM ( Canada ) SimCLIM SriLankaCLIM HOTSPOTS (NZ) TopoCLIM Hard-wired Open-system DryCLIM COMMERCIAL VERSION

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7. Emission Scenarios Source: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm

8. 2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny

9. Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm): 1374.0 – 1550.6 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 844.3 – 1020.9 2100 1727.2 – 1903.8 1197.5 – 1374.0 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 2020 1550.6 - 1727.2 1727.2 – 1903.8 Maleny 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kenilworth 1020.9 – 1197.5 1020.9 – 1197.5 Imbil 1020.9 – 1197.5 1197.5 – 1374.0 Kandanga 2050 2008

10. Annual Average Change in Precipitation (mm/year): 535 702 Monto 550 725 Gayndah 612 790 Kingaroy 955 1185 Gympie 920 1148 Maryborough 840 1060 Bundaberg 2100 1990

11. 2008 2020 2050 2100 Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny Kandanga Imbil Kenilworth Maleny

12. Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change ( 0 C) : 29.1 – 30.4 29.1 – 30.4 31.7 – 33.0 31.7 – 33.0 2100 22.7 – 24.0 24.0 – 25.3 25.3 – 26.6 25.3 – 26.6 2020 24.0 – 25.3 21.5 – 22.7 Maleny 25.3 – 26.6 22.7 – 24.0 Kenilworth 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Imbil 26.6 – 27.9 24.0 – 25.3 Kandanga 2050 2008

13. Annual Average Maximum Temperature Change: 30.71 - 34.66 27.33 Monto 30.98 - 34.95 27.59 Gayndah 28.21 - 32.19 24.82 Kingaroy 28.82 - 32.38 25.78 Gympie 29.49 - 32.99 26.50 Maryborough 29.71 - 33.31 26.63 Bundaberg 2100 1990

14. Number of days over 35 0 C /year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 72 2100 45 20 12 7 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008

15. Number of days over 40 0 C / year Kandanga, Cooroy, Kenilworth and Maleny – no temperature data recorded. 14 2100 6 1.7 0.7 0.1 Imbil 2075 2050 2030 2008

16. Number of days over 35 0 C / year 164 118 62 28 19 Monto 193 140 77 33 22 Gayndah 108 65 24 7 4 Kingaroy 91 114 123 2100 59 30 14 10 Gympie 66 37 5 3 Maryborough 59 10 2 1 Bundaberg 2075 2050 2020 1990

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