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Challenges & future scenario of steel industry 1
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Power point copy of Presentation made by me on "Challenges & Future Scenario of Steel "Industry in Reliance General Insurance (RGICL's) National Conference on "Latest Trends & Practices in Steel Sector" held at Mumbai on 17-18 Jan 2014
2. Executive Summary
Globally, steel players have been operating in a challenging environment with rising input
costs and persistent lower capacity utilization. This is driven by Low demand growth in
developed markets, accompanied by a structural shift in the global steel industry to
developing countries like China and India.
Over the last decade, Indian steel companies have consistently achieved higher earnings
before interest depreciation taxes and amortization (EBIDTA) margins as compared to their
global peers and have delivered steady growth despite external challenges.
Having established quality assets, Indian steel companies are now well poised to take
advantage of expansion and growth opportunities in India. However, six long-term
challenges are confronting the Indian steel industry’s growth aspirations
1/17/2014 11:29:07 AM
Prepared by Gsdhir
2
3. •Volatile domestic iron ore supply is forcing Indian steel companies to pay higher prices or
import this key raw material thereby exposing them to global iron ore price volatility.
•Flat products supply will exceed demand, leading to an overcapacity situation. This
coupled with the muted demand growth will put significant pressure on margins.
• Customers are maturing and increasingly demanding value-added products and services.
•Existing supply chains are stretched in order to cope with the wide range of customers and
product specifications— original equipment manufacturers (OEM) at one end, to the rural
retail markets at the other—which impact service levels.
•In the race to maintain market share, incumbents have taken on Greenfield and brownfield
expansion plans at a pace and scale unprecedented in the Past. Skill gaps and other
challenges have led to cost and time over-runs on these projects, putting further stress on the
already stretched balance sheets.
•Investments in management processes, systems and people capabilities have not kept
pace with the investments in assets and the changing market place. This is increasingly
becoming a bottleneck for growth.
4. Key Capabilities to become game
changers
Resource acquisition, development and operations
The pursuit of raw material security has led Indian steel companies to seek mining leases and
assets globally. The capability to acquire, develop and operate these assets has become a
key strategic imperative. These assets provide a natural hedge at the raw material portfolio
level, and are also important for overcoming the short-term domestic challenges.
Efficient capital project management
TheIndian steel companies are increasingly undertaking larger, more complex and riskier
projects to meet their capacity goals. Their ability to successfully execute these projects is
hindered by regulatory challenges, limited talent pools, contractors and construction labour
constraints, increasing infrastructure requirements, and expectations of compliance with
superior safety and environmental norms. Capital investments have not been accompanied
by a commensurate investment in enhancing capability to plan and execute these projects.
1/17/2014 11:29:08 AM
Prepared by Gsdhir
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5.
Customer-Centric Sales and Marketing
As Indian steel companies expand, they are increasingly facing an overlap in their market
and product footprint. This coupled with a lower demand growth has led to increased price
competition and pressure on margins. In this scenario, increased customer centricity will
differentiate the high performers.
Differentiated Supply Chains
Global trends are driving increased product and distribution complexity, as diverse and
digitally-empowered customers demand ever-more tailored products and services. To
remain competitive, companies across industries must embrace this growing complexity
while maintaining the benefits of simple, streamlined supply chains to deliver their aspirations
of growth, cost, working capital and sustainability.
Human capital management
India steel companies’ ability to manage and leverage its human capital will become a key
differentiator and will play a key role in enabling their growth aspirations. We believe Indian
steel companies will need to address the 4 D’s of managing talent.
Define Discover Develop Deploy
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Prepared by Gsdhir
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6. Current state of Indian Steel Industry
The Indian steel industry has entered into a new era of development since 2007-08, riding high
on the resurgent economy and robust demand for steel. Rapid rise in production has resulted in
India becoming the 4th largest producer of crude steel and the largest producer of sponge iron
in the world.
Domestic steel demand to remain muted during FY2012–17 on account of a weak macro
economic environment The demand for longs is expected to increase by 19 million ton (MT) at
a CAGR of 9 percent and for flats by 16 MT at a CAGR of 8 percent between FY2012 and
FY2017 . This is due to relatively weaker growth prospects of flats end-user industries (such as
automotive and consumer durables) than those for longs.
Increased domestic competition Incumbents and challengers have announced 71 million ton
per annum (MTPA) of steel capacity addition between FY2012 and FY2017 through both
brownfield and greenfield routes. However, there is considerable uncertainty on the actual
capacity addition as many projects are yet to achieve financial closure due to delays or lack of
regulatory clearances.
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Prepared by Gsdhir
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7. Based on our bottom-up assessment of the announced capacity additions,
projects aggregating to 35 MTPA of crude steel capacity have already achieved
financial closure. Hence, we expect a minimum aggregate capacity of 122 MTPA
to be commissioned by FY2017.
This capacity addition will lead to two structural changes. First, the concentration in
the longs segment will increase by 5–7 percent in the medium term, deepening the
sustainability challenge for secondary producers. Second, it will shift the current flatslongs capacity split of 50:50 to 60:40 by FY2017, if all the announced projects are
commissioned. As a result, one can expect oversupply in flats and a capacity shortfall
in longs.
8. Major steel producing countries 2012:
China (716.5mt)
Japan (107.2mt)
United States (88.7mt)
India (77.6mt)
Russia (70.4mt)
Major Exporter of steel according to 2012:
China (54.8mt)
European Union (47.1mt)
Japan (41.5mt)
Russia (26.7mt)
India 17th place (8.2mt)
9. Major Importer of steel according to 2012:
United States (31.5mt)
European Union (29.5mt)
Germany (22.9mt)
South Korea (20.4mt)
India 13th place (9.3mt)
List of Top Steel Companies in India:
TATA steel (20%) - Mumbai
SAIL (10%)- New Delhi
JSW steel (8%)- Mumbai
Visa steel (5%)- Jaipur
Bhushan steel (3%)- New Delhi
10. Market share of steel by countries in 2012
50
45.5
45
40
35
30
23.6
25
20
15
10
7
5.6
5
4.7
4.5
4.5
2.3
2.3
Ukraine
Brazil
0
China
1/17/2014 11:29:08 AM
Japan
US
India
Russia
Prepared by Gsdhir
South
Korea
ROW
10
11. •
Steel production in India has increased at a CAGR of 7.7 per cent over 2005–12. The
country is slated to become the second-largest steel producer by 2015 as large public and
private sector players strengthen steel production capacity in view of rising demand
•
Huge scope for growth is offered by India‟s comparatively low per capita steel
consumption and the expected rise in consumption due to increased infrastructure
construction and the thriving automobile and railways sectors
Technological
advancements
•
Increased government and corporate sector focus on using innovative production
techniques for enhancing operational as well as financial performance is a positive
Rising domestic and
international
investments
•
Domestic players‟ investments in expanding and upgrading manufacturing facilities are
expected to reduce reliance on imports. In addition, the entry of international players*
would provide benefits in terms of capital resources, technical know-how and more
competitive industry dynamics
Fourth-largest producer
of crude steel
Strong growth
opportunities
Notes: * - Arcelor Mittal and POSCO
12. 1993–2012
1973–1992
1954–1964
•
1923–1948
•
•
1907–1918
•
•
•
•
Production of
steel started in
India (TISCO
was setup in
1907)
IISC was set up
in 1918 to
compete with
TISCO
Mysore Iron and
Steel Company
was set up in 1923
According to the
new Industrial
Policy Statement
(1948), new
ventures were only
undertaken by the
central government
•
•
Hindustan Steel Ltd
and Bokaro Steel Ltd
were setup in 1954
and 1964,
respectively
In the early 1990s,
the public sector
dominated steel
production
Private players were
in downstream
production mainly
producing finished
steel using crude
steel products
•
•
SAIL was created
in 1973 as a
holding company
to oversee most
of India's iron and
steel production
In 1989, SAIL
acquired
Vivesvata Iron
and Steel Ltd
In 1993, the
government set
plans in motion to
partially privatise
SAIL
•
•
•
•
Foreign players
began entering the
Indian steel market
No license
requirement for
capacity creation
Imposition of export
duty on iron ore, to
focus more on
catering growing
domestic demand
Decontrol of domestic
steel prices
Launch of Scheme for
promotion of
Research and
Development in Iron
& Steel sector
Notes: TISCO - Tata Iron and Steel Company; IISC - Indian Iron & Steel Company; SAIL - Steel Authority of India Ltd
13. Steel
Form
Liquid steel
Composition
Crude steel
Finished steel
End use
Non-alloy
steel
Alloy
Structural
steel
Stainless
Ingots
Semis
Low carbon
steel
Construction
steel
Silicon
electrical
Medium
carbon steel
Rail steel
Flat
Non-flat
High speed
High carbon
steel
Source: Report on Indian steel
industry by Competition Commission
of India, Aranca Research
14. Total crude steel production rose at a CAGR of 6.6 per cent over FY08–11 to 69.6 MT; production in the first nine months
of FY12 was a little more than three-fourth of FY11 levels
Finished steel production stood at 66.0 MT in FY11, recording a CAGR of 4.2 per cent during FY08–11; analysts expect
production figures to improve rapidly over the next five years with the Ministry of Steel forecasting production levels at
115.3 MT by FY17
T
otal crude steel production (million tonnes)
T
otal finished steel production (million tonnes)
52.9
52.6
47.6
42.6
49.1
44.5
43.4
42.1
36.8
17.1
FY08
41.1
16.4
FY09
16.7
FY10
Public sector
17.0
FY11*
Private sector
12.3
FY12* (April Dec)
13.5
12.7
13.0
13.1
8.6
FY08
FY09
FY10
Public sector
FY11*
Private sector
FY12* (April Dec)
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research;
Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April – March); MT - Million Tonnes, * - Provisional; CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
15. SAIL is the leading player in India‟s steel sector; in the first nine months of FY12, the company accounted for 18.7 per cent
of the country‟s crude steel production and had a 13.5 per cent share in finished steel production
Tata Steel, another household name in the country, leads private sector activity in the steel sector; during April– December
2011, the firm accounted for 9.9 per cent of crude steel production and 7.8 per cent of finished steel production
India crude steel market share by production - FY12* (Apr-Dec)
9.9%
India finished steel market share by production
- FY12* (Apr-Dec)
7.8%
Tata Steel
Tata Steel
13.5%
18.7%
SAIL
SAIL
4.0%
4.3%
RINL
RINL
67.1%
Other
74.7%
Other
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research;
Notes: RINL - Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited, * - Provisional
16. Market value of the Indian steel sector
(USD billion)
In 2011, the Indian steel sector‟s total market value was
USD57.8 billion
The sector has benefitted from rises in price and
CAGR: 17.7%
millennium
46.8
43.0
Over 2007–11, the sector‟s market value is estimated to
have posted a strong CAGR of 17.7 per cent
36.5
30.1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Datamonitor, Aranca Research
Note: E - Estimates
17. Consumption of steel (in million tonnes)
Total consumption of steel exceeded production and grew
to 70.9 MT in FY12 as against 66.4 MT in FY11; over
cent
CAGR: 8.7%
66.4
70.9
59.3
Driven by rising infrastructure development and growing
demand for automotives, steel consumption is expected to
grow at an average rate of 6.8 per cent, reaching 104 MT by
2017
52.1
51.9
FY08
FY09
46.8
FY07
FY10
FY11
FY12*
Source: Ministry of Steel, Indian Steel Markets Conference,
Datamonitor, BMI, Aranca Research
Notes: FY12* - Data for FY12 is provisional, MT - Million Tonnes
18. With steel‟s demand growth outpacing growth in domestic production over the last few years, import dependency has
increased
Imports have increased at a CAGR of 6.8 per cent over FY07–12
In FY12, total imports stood at about 6.8 MT
Steel demand and production (in million tonnes)
67
55 53
55 55
64
Steel exports and imports (in million tonnes)
7.4
7.0
71 69
6.8
6.8
60 57
5.8
50 50
4.9 5.2
5.1
4.4
3.5
4.0
3.3
2007
2008
2009
Demand
2010
Production
2011
2012
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Imports
FY11
FY12*
Exports
Source: Ministry of Steel, JSPL presentation, Aranca Research
Notes: FY - Indian Financial Year (April - March), * - Data for FY12 is provisional
19. Infrastructure is India‟s largest steel consumer, accounting
for 63 per cent of total consumption in FY11
Sector-wise steel consumption FY12
2%
3%
0
This is not surprising given the heavy use of steel in
this sector and soaring construction and
infrastructure activity in the country over the past
decade
Engineering and fabrication is the next largest consumer,
with 22 per cent of total consumption
Infrastructure
10%
Engineering and
fabrication
Autos
22%
63%
Packaging
Transportation
Source: JSPL May 2013 presentation, Aranca Research
20. Company
Products
Tata Steel Ltd
Finished steel (non-alloy steel)
SAIL
Finished steel (non-alloy steel)
JSW Steel Ltd
Hot-rolled coils, strips and sheets
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
Iron and steel
Ispat Industries Ltd
Hot-rolled coils, strips and sheets
Welspun-Gujarat Stahl Rohren Ltd
Tubes and pipes
Bhushan Steel Ltd
Cold-rolled coils, strips and sheets
Source: Aranca Research
21. •
Growing investments
SAIL has modernised and expanded its integrated steel plants in Bhilai, Bokaro, Rourkela,
Durgapur, Burnpur and Salem
• The company is in the process of expanding its crude steel production capacity to 21.4
MTPA by 2013
• Completed mega expansion of Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL) to more than double
capacity of plant (from 2.9 MT to 6.3 MT) from 2013-14
•
Strategic alliances
International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd, comprising SAIL, RINL, CIL, NTPC and NMDC, has
been set up for acquisition of coal mines overseas
• The consortium of SAIL and National Fertiliser Limited (NFL) has been nominated for
revival of Sindri Unit of the Fertiliser Corporation of India Limited
• RINL, Vishakhapatnam Steel Plant and the Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd
(POWERGRID) signed an MoU to set up a joint venture company to manufacture
transmission line towers and tower parts including R&D of new high-end products
•
Entry of international
companies
Attracted by the growth potential of the Indian steel industry, several global steel players
have been planning to enter the market
• National Mineral Development Corporation (NMDC) has signed an MoU with Russia‟s
third-largest steelmaker, Severstal, for a greenfield steel plant in Karnataka
• Posco Steel to invest USD12 billion in setting up a 12 MT project in India
Source: Ministry of Railways, Aranca Research
Notes: MOUs - Memorandum of Understanding, MT - Million Tonnes
22. •
Increased emphasis on
technological
innovations
Indian steel companies have now started benchmarking their facilities and processes
against global standards, to enhance productivity
• These steps are expected to help Indian companies improve raw material and energy
consumption as well as improve compliance with environmental and pollution yardsticks
• Companies are attempting coal gasification and gas-based direct-reduced iron (DRI)
production. Other alternative technologies such as Hlsmelt, Finex and ITmk3 being
adopted to produce hot metal
Source: Aranca Research
23. Steel integrated plants under
SAIL (Bhilai, Rourkela,
Bokaro, Durgapur and
Burnpur)
Tata Steel‟s largest steel
plant, based in Jamshedpur
Alloy and special steel
plants under SAIL
(Bhadrawati and Salem)
RINL steel plant in
Vishakhapatnam
Source: Company websites, Aranca Research
24. Growing demand
Policy support
Growing demand in
the construction
industry
Increasing investments
Rising investments
from domestic and
foreign players
100 per cent FDI in
the steel sector
Inviting
Resulting in
Growing demand in
the automotives
sector
Encouragement of
sector-based R&D
activities by the
government
Increasing number
of MoUs signed to
boost investment in
steel
Rising demand for
consumer durables
and capital goods
Reduced custom
duty and other
favourable
measures
Foreign investment
of nearly USD40
billion committed in
the steel sector
Note: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment
25. Investment in infrastructure by the Planning Commission is
expected to expand at a CAGR of 14.5 per cent over FY12–
17
Projected values of investment in infrastructure
(USD billion)
191.4
investment to be USD1 trillion in the 12th Five-Year Plan
(2012–17), from USD428 billion in the 11th Plan
This increase in infrastructure investment is set to raise
steel demand by roughly 40 MTPA during FY13–17
CAGR: 14.5%
169.0
149.1
114.1
131.2
FY13
FY14
97.3
FY12
FY15
FY16
FY17
Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research
Notes: MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum
26. Over FY03-FY11, consumer durables has grown at a CAGR of 12.2 per cent as growth in disposable income resulted rise
in their demand
Capital goods and consumer durables are expected to grow at a 7.5 per cent to 8.8 per cent over 2012-2021
Automotives production expanded at a CAGR of 22.2 per cent over FY09–12
Commercial vehicles are the fastest growing segment with a CAGR of 29.8 per cent over the same period
Over FY12-FY21, the automotive sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent
Consumer durables market size (USD billion)
30.2
T
otal production of automobiles in India
(million units)
7.3
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
14.2
5.1
9.7
Passenger vehicles
Three wheelers & two wheelers
FY12
2.4
FY11
3.1
0.9
3.0
0.8
2.4
0.6
FY10
1.4
FY09
FY03
11.1
4.2
8.9
3.2
3.8
1.8
0.4
2.9
3.5
16.3
5.2
4.7
21.0
6.3
CAGR: 12.2%
FY16E
FY21E
Commercial vehicles
Source: SIAM, JSPL May 2013 presentation, Corporate Catalyst India, Aranca Research
Notes: E - Estimate; FY - Indian Financial Year (April - March)
27. •
National Steel Policy
2012
In view of the sector‟s changed dynamics, globally as well as domestically, the Ministry of
Steel has initiated the process of drafting a new National Steel Policy to replace the
existing National Steel Policy of 2005
• The government has set up a committee headed by the Steel Secretary to monitor the
formulation of the new National Steel Policy
• Four task forces have been constituted to study, analyses, consult and formulate draft
policy documents on different aspects of the policy
• The current policy draft proposes allotment of captive iron ore mines to producers through
open bidding and putting some mines in the general category
A new scheme, „The scheme for the promotion of R&D in the iron and steel sector‟, has
been approved with budgetary provision of USD24.6 million to initiate and implement the
provisions of the scheme as per the 11th Five-Year Plan
• USD10.7 million had been spent under the scheme up to December 2012
• The development of technology for cold-rolled grain oriented (CRGO) steel sheets and
other value-added products is also included under the policy purview and is allocated
USD6.7 million
•
R&D and innovation
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research
28. Foreign Direct
Investment
Rise in export duty on
iron ore
•
100 per cent FDI through the automatic route is allowed in the Indian steel sector
•
The government hiked the export duty on iron ore to 30 per cent ad valorem on all
varieties of iron ore* (except pellets)
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research
Notes: * - w.e.f. 30th December 2011
29. •
Export duty on iron ore has been increased to 30
per cent ad valorem on all varieties of iron ore
(except pellets), to preserve iron ore resources for
domestic use
•
As per the government‟s decision, the Government
of India‟s 51 per cent shareholding in Eastern
Investments Company Limited (EIL), under Bird
Group of Companies, was transferred to RINL
•
•
New Research and Development policy for the
steel sector have been finalised/adopted for
implementation
New techno-economic benchmarks have been
evolved on international patterns to improve
performance of steel PSUs; implementation is
being monitored closely
•
Under the Ministry, the Joint Plant Committee
(JPC) studied 300 districts, 1,500 villages, 4,500
manufactures and 8,000 retailers spread over
India‟s 28 states and 7 union territories to assess
steel demand in the rural areas and examine the
potential to increase steel consumption levels
•
The Ministry of Steel set up the Steel Innovation
Council to promote innovative ideas in the steel
sector
•
The New National Steel Policy for the forthcoming
years is under finalisation
•
In April 2013, the Ministry of Steel signed a Letter
of Intent (LoI) with the Tanzanian Government to
strengthen cooperation in steel and mining
activities
Source: Ministry of Steel, Aranca Research
Notes: W.E.F - With Effect From 30th December, 2011
30. Developer
Location
Product
Viraj Profiles Ltd
Thane, Maharashtra
Stainless steel engineering
products
Jindal Steel Ltd
Kalinganagar
Stainless steel
Salem, Tamil Nadu
Steel
Jajpur, Orissa
Metallurgical-based engineering
and ancillary/downstream industry
SAIL Salem SEZ Pvt Ltd
Orissa Industrial Infrastructure
Development Corporation
Source: Formal approvals granted in the Board of Approvals after the SEZ rules coming into force,”
Special Economic Zones in India website, www.sezindia.nic.in
31. M&A scenario – details
Period: 1 January 2012 to 21 June 2013
Deal type
Number of deals
Largest deal (USD million)
Inbound
2
-
Outbound
1
-
Domestic
3
232.6
Cumulative FDI inflows
Period: April 2000 to March 2013
Sector
Metallurgical industries
USD7.5 billion
Per cent of total FDI
inflow
3.9
Source: Thomson ONE Banker, “Fact Sheet On Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)”, Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion
32. State
MoUs signed (2011)
Capacity addition (MTPA)
Orissa
63
81.2
Jharkhand
49
105.1
Chhattisgarh
76
60.0
West Bengal
16
39.4
Karnataka
57
173.0
Andhra Pradesh
18
11.8
Other states
22
18.2*
301
488.6
Total
Capacity addition plans 2012
Company
Plans
SAIL
SAIL plans to invest USD27.3 billion in increasing capacity from 21.4 MTPA to 45 MTPA. In
its recent expansion plan, the company modernised and expanded its integrated steel
plants at Bhilai, Bokaro, Rourkela, Durgapur, Burnpur and a special plant at Salem
NMDC
NMDC is setting up a greenfield integrated steel plant of 3 MTPA capacity in Nagarnar,
Chhattisgarh at an estimated cost of about USD3.2 billion
Source: Ministry of Steel, Annual Report 2011-12; Note: MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum, * - Estimated figures
33. Jindal Steel and Power Limited
Incorporated in 1979, Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL)
is an integrated steel producer and the largest coal-based
sponge iron manufacturer in the world. The company has an
installed steel production capacity of 3 MTPA. JSPL is
engaged in manufacturing long products and is specialised
in producing long rails for railways and large sized H-beams
as well as columns for the infrastructure and construction
sector
Projected crude steel capacity in the 12th Plan
(million tonnes)
11.5
10.0
8.0
CAGR: 25.1%
7.0
4.5
3.0
3.0
JSPL also has significant presence across the mining, power
generation and infrastructure sectors
•
Achievements:
•
•
2011 – Ranked third in the Metals category of
Business World‟s Most Respected Companies
Survey, 2011
2010 – Rated the World‟s Second-Largest Value
Creator by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
and the World‟s Largest Value Creator in the
Mining and Materials category
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Source: Company website (www.jindalsteelpower.com),
Planning Commission, Aranca Research
35. Strong diversified
customer base of
2,758 customers
TMT Re-bars
Expansion in
international
markets
Wire rods
Foray into the oil &
gas and cement
sectors as a part of
diversification
FY 13–14
Steel capacity to
rise from
3.5MTPA to
7.0MTPA
Plate and coils
Organic growth
through capacity
additions
Column sections
FY08
ISO
9001:2008
accreditation
Hot-rolled parallel
flange beams
The iron and steel
segment continues
to be a major
contributor (~75%)
1991
Commenced
operations
Long track rails
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2002
2006
2010
2012
36. Bhushan Steel Limited
Projected crude steel capacity in the 12th Plan
(million tonnes)
Established in 1983, Bhushan Steel Limited (BSL) is the
third-largest secondary steel producer in India. The company
has an existing steel production capacity of 2.5 MTPA. It
primarily manufactures flat steel products for the automobile
industry
Products – Cold-rolled closed annealed coils, galvanised
coils and sheets, high tensile steel strapping, colour coated
coils, galume sheets and coils, hardened and tempered steel
strips, billets, sponge iron, precision tubes and wire rods
•
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
4.5
2.2
2.5
Milestones:
•
2004 – Commissioned secondary steel production at
Khapoli, Maharashtra
•
2006 – Commissioned primary steel production at
Meramandali, Odisha
•
2006 – Commissioned secondary steel production at
Sahibabad, Uttar Pradesh
FY11
FY12
FY13
Source: Company website (www.bhushansteel.com),
Planning Commission, Aranca Research
38. Technological
upgradation and
further capacity
addition
Other
developed products
Capacity
expansion
(0.9 MT to 2.5 MT)
S on kin ron
Ironpmage ig and
castings
Partnership with
Japanese steel
producer,
Sumitomo
Alloy billets
Alloy steel
Color coated tiles
Wheel, pipes
and tyre and
FY06
Primary steel
production in
Odisha
Organic growth in
steel and flat
products
axle plant (railways)
Galvanised
FY12
USD2.5 billion
turnover
1989
Secondary
steel
production in
UP
Strong diversified
customer base of
3,300 customers
Cold-rolled
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2002
2006
2010
2012
39. T Steel Limited
ata
Projected crude steel capacity in the 12th Plan
(million tonnes)
Established in 1907 by the visionary founder – JN Tata, Tata
Steel is among the top ten global steel companies with an
annual crude steel capacity of over 28 MTPA
20.0
17.5
The company caters to sectors such as automotive,
construction, consumer goods, engineering, packaging,
energy & power, ship building, rail and defense & security
•
Milestones:
•
2007 – Tata Steel and Corus were integrated at
USD12 billion, making Tata Steel one of the top ten
global steel producers
11.0
9.2
6.8
7.6
2009 – Tata Ryerson and HMPCL merge with Tata
Steel
•
CAGR: 19.7%
15.1
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
Source: Company website (www.tatasteel.com),
Planning Commission, Aranca Research
40. Financial growth (USD million)
Production and sales of steel division (million tonnes)
7.9 7.5
6.7 6.4 7.0 6.6
6.4
7.1
7.2
5.9
5.6
5.8
6.2
4.9 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.4
4.6 4.4
4.5
5.2
3.9
0.8
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Production
FY11
Sales
FY12
FY13
FY06
0.9
FY07
1.2
1.1
1.1
FY08
FY09
NPAT
FY10
1.5
1.4
FY11
FY12
Gross revenue
Source: Company website (www.tatasteel.com), Aranca Research
Notes: NPAT - Net Profit After Tax
41. Developed products
Technological
upgradation
Iron making and
Capacity
expansion
(3 MT)
castings
Diversification
(coal injection
unit)
Alloy steel
Wheel, tyre and
axle plant (railways)
Pig iron and
steel ingots
FY13
USD7.0
billion
turnover*
M&A
(Tata-Corus)
Organic growth in
steel
1912
Production
capacity (1.6
lakh tonnes)
FY06
USD3,625
million
turnover
Announced plans
to merge Tata
Metaliks Ltd and
Tata Metaliks
Kuboto Pipes Ltd
with itself in April
2013
Blast furnace
1912 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company website (www.tatasteel.com), Aranca Research, * - Revenues from Indian operations
Note: M&A - Mergers and Acquisitions
42. JSW Steel
Projected crude steel capacity in the 12th Plan
(million tonnes)
Established in 1994, JSW Steel Ltd manufactures iron and
steel products in India and abroad
Products – Hot-rolled coils, plates and sheets; cold-rolled
coils and sheets; galvanised sheets and coils; pre-painted
galvanised coils, sheets and galvanised sheets
•
17.6
CAGR: 8.8%
13.23
14.3
14.3
14.3
FY13
FY14
FY15
18.4
11.1
Achievements:
•
2011 – National Sustainability Award by the Indian
Institute of Metals
•
2009 – Gold Award in the Metal and Mining sector
•
2008 – National Energy Management Award
instituted by CII
FY11
FY12
FY16
FY17
Source: Company website (www.jsw.in),
Planning Commission, Aranca Research
44. Hot-rolled
Capacity
addition 7.8 MT
Cold-rolled
JV formed to
explore, develop &
mine iron ore with
MML
Wire rods
TMT Re-bars
Organic growth
and integration
1994
ISO
accreditations
Galvanised
product
Special steel bars
FY06
USD1,417
million
turnover
1994
Production
capacity
(1.25 MTPA)
FY 13
USD7.1
billion
turnover
FY 14
Saleablesteel
sales to rea h
c
9.75 million
tonnes
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Notes: JV - Joint Venture, TMT - Thermo Mechanically Treated, MML - Mysore Minerals Limited, MTPA - Million Tonnes Per Annum
45. Automotive
• The
automotives
industry is forecasted
to grow in size by
USD122–159 billion
by 2016
Capital goods
•
• With
increasing
capacity addition in
the
automotive
industry, demand for
steel from the sector
is expected to be
robust
•
Infrastructure
The capital goods
sector accounts for
11 per cent of steel
consumption,
and
has the potential to
increase in tonnage
and market share
• The government aims
Corporate
India‟s
capex is expected to
grow and generate
greater demand for
steel
• Due to such a huge
to
increase
infrastructure
spending from 8.4
per cent of GDP in
FY11 to 10.7 per cent
by FY17
investment
in
infrastructure
the
demand for long steel
products
would
increase in the years
ahead
Airports
• More
and
more
modern and private
airports are expected
to be set up
• Development of Tier-
II city airports would
sustain consumption
growth
• Estimated
steel
consumption
in
airport building is
likely to grow more
than 20 per cent over
next few years
Note: Capex – Capital Expenditure
46. Railways
• The
dedicated rail
freight
corridor
network
(DRFC)
expansion would be
enhanced in future
• Gauge
conversion,
setting up of new lines
and
electrification
would
drive
steel
demand
Oil and gas
Power
Rural India
liquid
fuel
transportation pipeline
network is likely to
grow from the present
16,800 km to 22,000
km in 2014
• The government aims
• This would lead to an
• Both generation and
increase in demand of
steel tubes and pipes,
providing a lucrative
opportunity to the
steel industry
transmission
capacities would be
enhanced,
thereby
raising steel demand
from the sector
• The
•
Rural
India,
accounting for 70 per
cent
of
Indian
population has low
steel
per
capita
which
consumption
provides huge scope
for growth
•
Policies like Bharat
Nirman and Rajiv
Gandhi Awaaz Yojna
are driving growing
demand
for
construction steel in
rural India
to
add
71,000–
1,07,500 MW (Mega
Watt)
of
capacity
during the 12th FiveYear Plan
Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research
47. Current state of Global Steel Industry
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47
48. Steel Capacity Outgrows Demand Growth
During 2000~2012, global crude steel capacity ∆ 1,013 Mt to reach
2,063 Mt, whereas crude steel production ∆ 683 MT to 1,532 Mt
Chinese capacity ∆ 771Mt to 921 Mt, production ∆ 602 Mt to 731 Mt
After the global economic crisis, capacity expansion momentum slows,
but the emerging economies continue to seek expansion
Steed Demand vs Capacity (2000=100)
Apparent steel use, crude steel equivalent
Capacity, crude steel
2000=100
220
200
180
160
140
120
1/17/2014 11:29:09 AM
Prepared by Gsdhir
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
100
48
49. Return of Overcapacity
While world steel demand continues to grow, capacity utilization ratio
trends down
No easy solutions to overcapacity in sight
100%
World crude steel capacity utilisation
Jun-08
92.7%
90%
Apr-10
84.5%
Apr-11
83.4%
Sep-13
79.3%
80%
Aug-10
74.2%
70%
Dec-12
71.5%
60%
Dec-08
59.9%
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Prepared by Gsdhir
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
50%
49
50. Raw Materials Side Adds to Adversity
Value chain profits has been shifting away from the steel industry
Volatility and uncertainty in raw materials prices since departure from
the benchmarking pricing system
value chain profit pool split evolution
100%=
Iron ore
Coking
coal
54
8
11
23
125
156
17
44
7
81
135
15
42
46
22
Steel
making
(HRC)
230
22
78
28
32
61
35
27
26
1995
2000
2005
10
2011
2017
Source: McKinsey & Company
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50
51. Steel Industry Performances
Steel vs Raw materials prices
Index 2005=100
1/17/2014 11:29:09 AM
Steel industry stocks vs Dow Jones
Index 2005=100
Prepared by Gsdhir
51
53. Demand Forecasts for selected countries
Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO October 2013)
Mt
%
2012
2013
2014
12/11
13/12
14/13
2014 as %
of 2007
1,430.3
1,475.1
1,523.2
2.0
3.1
3.3
125.0
96.2
96.9
99.8
7.8
0.7
3.0
92.2
140.2
134.9
137.8
-9.5
-3.8
2.1
69.1
63.9
64.0
63.0
-0.2
0.1
-1.6
77.6
660.1
699.7
720.7
2.9
6.0
3.0
172.2
71.6
74.0
78.2
2.6
3.4
5.6
151.8
25.2
26.0
27.0
0.6
3.2
3.8
122.3
54.8
57.3
60.4
12.8
4.6
5.4
149.7
63.2
64.3
69.0
2.2
1.7
7.3
127.2
Developed Economies
390.2
384.1
390.5
-1.7
-1.6
1.7
82.4
Emerging & Developing
Economies excl China
World excl. China
380.0
391.4
412.1
4.2
3.0
5.3
126.0
770.2
775.4
802.6
1.1
0.7
3.5
100.3
World
United States
European Union (27)
Japan
China
India
Brazil
ASEAN (5)
MENA
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53
54. Key Trends in Post-Crisis Period Steel Demand
Multi-speed recovery continues driven by emerging economies, but
weakening growth in the emerging world
Eurozone stabilizes and finally positive growth expected in 2014
China moves into slower growth phase
Key emerging economies struggling with structural issues
Multi-Speed Recovery of Steel Demand
180
2007=100
World
China
Developed Economies
Em. & Dev Economies excl. China
.
160
140
120
100
80
60
2007
1/17/2014 11:29:09 AM
2008
2009
2010
201
1
Prepared by Gsdhir
2012
2013
2014
54
55. Regional Share in World Steel Demand
Apparent Steel Use, finished steel (SRO October 2013)
Emerging & Developing Economies
Developed Economies
China
2000
2001
41.5%
58.5%
16.4%
2002
2003
53.9%
20.5%
46.1%
2004
2005
2006
51.5%
23.3%
48.5%
2007
2008
2009
47.8%
27.4%
52.2%
2010
2011
47.0%
28.3%
53.0%
2012
2013
2014
41.7%
33.3%
33.1%
1/17/2014 11:29:09 AM
58.3%
58.4%
Prepared by Gsdhir
41.6%
11
55
56. China Entering a New Phase of Development
After soft landing, renewed focus on rebalancing of the economy
Less steel intensive growth to come, implying steel demand growth will
underperform GDP growth
Future focus will be on capacity closures, environmental performance
and upgrading
Growth trend of China’s steel use
1/17/2014 11:29:09 AM
Steel intensity (ASU/GDP)
Prepared by Gsdhir
56
57. Economic Growth and Steel Demand
S-Curve of different countries
Thailand
China
Indonesia
United States
Japan
South Korea
India
Per Capita Steel Use
finished steel, kg, 2012
ASU per capita, ASU, crude steel equivalent per capita, kg
1 400
488 506
1 200
1 000
305
279
222
Japan
220
127
600
40
57
400
Africa
United States
India
200
Brazil
Middle United EU (27) China
East States
Japan
World
0
0
10
20
30
GDP per capita, 2005 PPP$,
1/17/2014 11:29:09 AM
40
50
thousands USD
Prepared by Gsdhir
57
58. How Far Will Chinese Steel Demand Grow?
Positive
Further room for urbanization and
Industrialization
Low level of development in the West
Negative
Condensed growth, high share of
investment in GDP
Environmental regulations, resource
constraints
Manufacturing relocation out of China
Speed and mode of development in the West
China provincial steel use per capita (2011, kg/per, crude steel equiv )
China (2012) US (1973)
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Japan (1973)
Prepared by Gsdhir
58
59. End of the China Effect, Next Growth Engine?
Evolution of Steel Demand (1950-2014, crude steel equiv)
Mt
CAGR 2007-2014
3.1%
1 800
1 600
RoW
CAGR 2000-2007
6.6%
1 400
1 200
China
CAGR 1975-2000
1.1%
1 000
former USSR
CAGR 1950-1975
5.0%
800
600
US, EU, Japan
400
200
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
0
Contribution to Apparent Steel Demand Growth( ∆ Mt)
World
Developed
China
Other Emerging
1992-2000
142.6
84.1
51.1
7.4
2000-2007
480.3
74.2
297.8
108.4
2007-2014
320.2
-85.5
314.8
90.9
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59
61. Environmental Challenges
Energy use reduction efforts in developed world already at theoretical limit
and limited progress in Break-Through technologies. Pressure on costs
and also negative impact on steel demand growth
However. steel has been successful in providing solutions to the
sustainability - lighter vehicles, renewable energy, etc …
Energy Intensity of steel production
(NAmerica+Japan +EU27)
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Energy intensity of iron and steel
production (GJ/t of crude steel)
Prepared by Gsdhir
61
62. Steel as Solution to Sustainable Future
Innovative use of steel saves six times as much CO2 as is caused by
the production of the steel → LCA approach
Case study
1
2
Energy
industry
3
4
Traffic
HH, ind.,
CTS1
5
6
Emissions in the
steel production3
Net CO2 reduction potential
Efficient fossil fuel PPs
29.5
Wind power plants
0.03
1.9
14 : 1
1.3 : 1
8.4
11.2
0.9
1.1 : 1
1.0
1.0
9:1
9.2
Combined heat/power
0
3:1
0.7
Weight reduction cars
7
~ 200 : 1
0.1
2.1
Weight reduction trucks
32 : 1
0.4
5.0
Other renewables2
Efficient e-motors
~ 400 : 1
<0.1
14.2
Efficient transformers
Ratio between CO2
reduction/emission4
5
10
30
0
Mt
8
1
9
10
11
Mt
6:1
1.HH = households; CTS = commerce, trade, and service 2. Geothermal, biomass, hydro 3. CO 2 expenditure for other materials not examined;
values are rounded 4. Ratio relates exclusively to the emissions
Source: BCG analysis
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62
63. Long Term View on Steel Demand
Global steel demand could reach 2.2~3.0 billion in 2050
Long T
erm Evolution of World Steel Demand
Years
1970
589
1975
640
1980
713
1985
719
1990
773
1995
743
2000
846
2005
1 139
2010
Mt
Mt
1 404
2012
1 542
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
*apparent steel use, crude steel equivalent
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63
64. Conclusion
Despite current difficulties, future scenarios for the steel industry have
optimistic starting point: Urbanization and population growth will support
industry growth for considerable time
Surplus capacity in the industry will be difficult to reduce quickly, but can
be absorbed in long term
Steel industry will continue to provide the basis for sustainability of the
modern society through innovation
But the industry is facing formidable challenges ahead
Changing position in value chain through expanding product mix,
development of new applications becomes crucial for steel industry
Sustainable development and, in particular, Life Cycle Assessment
focus provides interesting challenges to the steel industry
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64
65. Technological Developments in Iron and
Steel Industry
Emerging Energy-efficiency and Carbon Dioxide Emissions-reduction technologies
for the Iron and Steel Industry
Iron and steel manufacturing is among the most energy-intensive industries and accounts for the largest share,
approximately 27 percent, of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the manufacturing sector. The ongoing
increase in world steel demand means that this industry’s energy use and CO2 emissions continue to grow, so there is
significant incentive to develop, commercialize and adopt emerging energy-efficiency and CO2 emissions-reduction
technologies for steel production. Although studies from around the world have identified a wide range of energyefficiency technologies applicable to the steel industry that have already been commercialized, information is limited
and/or scattered regarding emerging or advanced energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies that are not yet
commercialized. This report consolidates available information on 56 emerging iron and steel industry technologies,
with the intent of providing a well-structured database of information on these technologies for engineers, researchers,
investors, steel companies, policy makers, and other interested parties. For each technology included, we provide
information on energy savings and environmental and other benefits, costs, and commercialization status; we also
identify references for more information.
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65
66. Category of steel:
Carbon Steels- contain trace amounts of alloying elements and account for
90% of total steel production
Low Carbon Steels/Mild Steels contain up to 0.3% carbon
Medium Carbon Steels contain 0.3 – 0.6% carbon
High Carbon Steels contain more than 0.6% carbon
Alloy Steels- contain alloying elements (e.g. manganese,
silicon, nickel, titanium, copper, chromium and aluminum)
Stainless Steels- contain between 10-20% chromium
Tool Steels- contain tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt and vanadium in varying
quantities
67. No.
Report Section/Technology Name
Commercialization status
3.1. Emerging Agglomeration Technologies
1
3.1.1. Use of Biomass in the Sintering Process
Demonstration
3.2. Emerging Coke-making Technologies
2
3.2.1. Single-chamber-system Coking Reactors
Demonstration
3
3.2.2. Battery Under-firing with Advance Diagnostics and Control
Development
3.3. Emerging Technologies for Ironmaking Using Blast Furnace
4
Pilot
5
3.3.2. Blast Furnace Optimization by Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling
Demonstration
6
3.3.3. Blast Furnace Optimization by Using X-ray Diffraction Analytical Technique
Demonstration
7
3.3.4. Blast Furnace Heat Recuperation
Demonstration
8
3.3.5. Plasma Blast Furnace
Development
9
10
3.3.1. Hot Oxygen Injection
3.3.6. Blast Furnace Slag Heat Recovery
Pilot/ Development
3.4.7. Charging Carbon Composite Agglomerates
Demonstration
3.4. Alternative Ironmaking Technologies
11
3.4.1. COREX® Process
Commercial with very low adoption rate
12
3.4.2. FINEX® Process
Commercial with very low adoption rate
13
3.4.3. Tecnored
Pilot
14
3.4.4. ITmk3 Ironmaking Process
Demonstration
15
3.4.5. Paired Straight Hearth Furnace
Development
16
3.4.6. Coal-Based HYL Process- A Syngas based DRI Plant
Commercial with very low adoption rate
17
3.4.7. Coal-Based MIDREX Process
Demonstration
18
3.4.8. Fine Ore Reduction in the Circulating Fluidized Bed (Circored® and Circofer®)
Demonstration/Pilot
19
3.4.9. Cyclone Converter Furnace
Pilot
20
3.4.10. Producing Iron by Electrolysis of Iron Ore (Molten Oxide Electrolysis)
Research/Development
21
3.4.11. Suspension Hydrogen Reduction of Iron Oxide Concentrate
Research/Development
22
3.4.12. Ironmaking using Biomass and Waste Oxides
Research
3.5. Emerging Technologies for Steelmaking Shops
23
3.5.1. Sensible Heat Recovery from Electric Arc Furnace Off Gases
Commercial with very low adoption rate/ Pilot
24
3.5.2. Electrochemical Removal of Zinc from Steel Scrap
Demonstration
25
3.5.3. Continuous Horizontal Sidewall Scrap Charging
Pilot
26
3.5.4. New Scrap-Based Steelmaking Process Predominantly Using Primary Energy
Development
27
3.5.5. ECOARCTM
Demonstration
28
3.5.6. Optimization of Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace Post Combustion Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling
Pilot
29
3.5.7. Improving the Energy Efficiency of Electric Arc Furnaces through Laser-
Pilot
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68. No.
30
31
32
33
34
35
Report Section/Technology Name
based Optimization of Post Combustion
3.5.8. Model-based Steel Temperature Measurement for Electric Arc Furnaces
3.5.9. In-Situ Real-Time Measurement of Melt Constituents
3.9.10. Injection of plastic waste in Blast Furnaces
3.9.11. Injection of Plastic Waste in the Electric Arc Furnace
3.9.12. Use of Waste Tires in EAF
Commercialization status
Development
Development
Demonstration
Pilot
Commercial with very low adoption rate
3.6.4. Continuous Steelmaking for Electric Arc Furnace
3.6. Emerging Casting Technologies
3.6.1. Near-net-shape Casting/Strip Casting
Research
37
3.6.2. Continuous Temperature Monitoring and Control in Continuous Casting
3.7. Emerging Rolling and Finishing Technologies
Development
38
3.7.1. High-Temperature Membrane Module for Oxygen Enrichment of Combustion Air for Fuel-Fired Industrial Furnaces
Pilot
39
40
41
3.7.2. Next-generation System for Scale-Free Steel Reheating
3.7.3. Thermochemical Recuperation for Steel Reheating Furnaces
3.7.4. Hot Strip Mill Model
Research
Research
Commercial with very low adoption rate
42
3.7.5. Innovative Reheating Furnace Management Using a Continuous Burn-Out Measuring System
Pilot
43
44
3.7.6. Oxygen-rich Furnace System for reduced CO2 and NOx emissions
3.6.2. HotEye® Steel Surface Inspection System
Development
Commercial with very low adoption rate/
Development
45
3.7.7. NOx Emission Reduction by Oscillating Combustion
3.8. Emerging Recycling and Waste Reduction Technologies
3.8.1. Recycling Basic Oxygen Furnace Slag
3.8.2. Rotary Hearth Furnace Dust Recycling System
3.8.3. Recycling of Stainless Steel Dust by Injection into Electric Arc Furnace
3.8.4. Regeneration of Hydrochloric Acid Pickling Liquor
3.8.5. Recycling of Waste Oxides in Steelmaking Furnace
Pilot
36
46
47
48
49
50
Commercial with very low adoption rate
Development
Demonstration
Pilot
Pilot
Pilot
3.9. Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies for the Iron and Steel industry
51
52
53
54
55
3.9.1. Top-gas Recycling in Blast Furnaces with Carbon Capture and Storage
3.9.2. Advanced Direct Reduction with Carbon Capture and Storage (ULCORED)
3.9.3. HIsarna with Carbon Capture and Storage
3.9.4. Post-combustion Carbon Capture Using Chemical Absorption Technologies
3.9.5. Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide Using Basic Oxygen Furnace and Electric Arc Furnace Slag
Pilot
Development
Pilot
Development
Research
56
3.9.6. Integrating Steel Production with Mineral Sequestration
Research
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