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Finding the Next Facebook

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GSV's perspective on growth economy dynamics.

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Finding the Next Facebook

  1. Michael Moe, CFA Founder, GSV Asset Management @michaelmoe Finding the Next Facebook
  2. Every day in America 1,100 new businesses are formed. Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau
  3. Every day in America 1,300 businesses fail. Source: Gallup, U.S. Census Bureau
  4. In 2014, Venture Capitalists invested in 4,356 companies. Source: NVCA, PwC
  5. In 2014, just 115 venture- backed companies went public…. Source: Thomson Reuters, NVCA
  6. …and that was the best year since 2000. Source: Dow Jones Venture Source, Fenwick & West
  7. 20% Chance Company Survives First 3 Years
  8. What kind of nut would start a business?
  9. Name that “Nut”
  10. Lost job in ’32
  11. Defeated in race for State Legislature in ’32
  12. Failed in business ‘33
  13. He had a nervous breakdown in ’41
  14. Defeated in races for: Congress in ‘43 Senate in ‘55 Vice President in ‘56 Senate in ‘58
  15. And the answer is…
  16. Teachers told him he was “too stupid to learn anything”
  17. Fired from his first two jobs for lack of productivity
  18. Thomas Edison
  19. $272 Billion Market Cap
  20. He was fired by a newspaper editor because he "lacked imagination and had no good ideas"
  21. Launched film studios in 1920 and 1921… both went bankrupt
  22. $195 Billion Market Cap
  23. $233 Billion Market Cap
  24. “In order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must be feasible.” -Yale professor response to a paper he submitted in 1965
  25. Whatever it Takes
  26. Wilson turned FedEx’s last $5,000 into $27,000 at the Black Jack table
  27. $49 Billion Market Cap
  28. Howard Schultz CEO, Starbucks
  29. $82 Billion Market Cap
  30. Dyslexic
  31. Turned down by 53 banks for a business loan
  32. Founded 8 Billion Dollar Businesses
  33. The Power of Growth
  34. Top 25 Stocks 2005 - 2015
  35. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  36. 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
  37. Median Stock CAGR 31% Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
  38. Median EPS CAGR 39% Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
  39. Median P/E, 2005 36x Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
  40. Median Market Cap, 2005 $361 million Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
  41. Conclusion 1) Focus on Companies with the Highest Growth, not the Bargain Basement
  42. Conclusion 2 2) Focus on Small Companies — SIZE FORGES AN ANCHOR
  43. “People may bet on hourly wiggles of the market but it’s the earnings that waggle the wiggle long term.” -Peter Lynch
  44. $0.00$ $1.00$ $2.00$ $3.00$ $4.00$ $5.00$ $6.00$ $7.00$ $8.00$ $0$ $20$ $40$ $60$ $80$ $100$ $120$ $140$ Feb00102005$ Aug00102005$ Feb00102006$ Aug00102006$ Feb00102007$ Aug00102007$ Feb00102008$ Aug00102008$ Feb00102009$ Aug00102009$ Feb00102010$ Aug00102010$ Feb00102011$ Aug00102011$ Feb00102012$ Aug00102012$ Feb00102013$ Aug00102013$ Feb00102014$ Aug00102014$ Feb00102015$ Apple 2005-2015 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance Stock Price CAGR: 36% EPS CAGR: 55% StockPrice EPS
  45. $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Dec-31-2004 Jun-30-2005 Dec-31-2005 Jun-30-2006 Dec-31-2006 Jun-30-2007 Dec-31-2007 Jun-30-2008 Dec-31-2008 Jun-30-2009 Dec-31-2009 Jun-30-2010 Dec-31-2010 Jun-30-2011 Dec-31-2011 Jun-30-2012 Dec-31-2012 Jun-30-2013 Dec-31-2013 Jun-30-2014 Dec-31-2014 Monster 2005-2015 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance Stock Price CAGR: 47% EPS CAGR: 37% StockPrice EPS
  46. $0.00$ $0.50$ $1.00$ $1.50$ $2.00$ $2.50$ $3.00$ $3.50$ $4.00$ $4.50$ $5.00$ $0$ $100$ $200$ $300$ $400$ $500$ $600$ Dec-31-2004 Jun-30-2005 Dec-31-2005 Jun-30-2006 Dec-31-2006 Jun-30-2007 Dec-31-2007 Jun-30-2008 Dec-31-2008 Jun-30-2009 Dec-31-2009 Jun-30-2010 Dec-31-2010 Jun-30-2011 Dec-31-2011 Jun-30-2012 Dec-31-2012 Jun-30-2013 Dec-31-2013 Jun-30-2014 Dec-31-2014 Netflix 2005-2015 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance Stock Price CAGR: 39% EPS CAGR: 35% StockPrice EPS
  47. $0.00$ $5.00$ $10.00$ $15.00$ $20.00$ $25.00$ $30.00$ $35.00$ $40.00$ $0$ $200$ $400$ $600$ $800$ $1,000$ $1,200$ $1,400$ $1,600$ Dec03102004$ Jun03002005$ Dec03102005$ Jun03002006$ Dec03102006$ Jun03002007$ Dec03102007$ Jun03002008$ Dec03102008$ Jun03002009$ Dec03102009$ Jun03002010$ Dec03102010$ Jun03002011$ Dec03102011$ Jun03002012$ Dec03102012$ Jun03002013$ Dec03102013$ Jun03002014$ Dec03102014$ Priceline 2005-2015 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance Stock Price CAGR: 47% EPS CAGR: 54% StockPrice EPS
  48. Growth Double-Edged Sword
  49. Where would you rather invest $100K?
  50. High Octane Fund Year 1 Up 100% Year 2 Down 30%
  51. Steady Eddy Fund Year 1 Up 20% Year 2 Up 20%
  52. YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% Steady Eddy 20% Start $100K
  53. YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K Steady Eddy 20% $120K Start $100K
  54. YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K (30%) Steady Eddy 20% $120K 20% Start $100K
  55. YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K (30%) $140K Steady Eddy 20% $120K 20% Start $100K
  56. YEAR 1 YEAR 2 Return Value Return Value High Octane 100% $200K (30%) $140K Steady Eddy 20% $120K 20% $144K Start $100K
  57. Down To Break Even -10% 11% -30% 43% -50% 100% -70% 333% -90% 1000% Breaking Even
  58. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1/2/90 1/2/91 1/2/92 1/2/93 1/2/94 1/2/95 1/2/96 1/2/97 1/2/98 1/2/99 1/2/00 1/2/01 1/2/02 1/2/03 1/2/04 1/2/05 1/2/06 1/2/07 1/2/08 1/2/09 1/2/10 1/2/11 1/2/12 1/2/13 1/2/14 1/2/15 NASDAQ 2000: 5,000 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 1
  59. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1/2/90 1/2/91 1/2/92 1/2/93 1/2/94 1/2/95 1/2/96 1/2/97 1/2/98 1/2/99 1/2/00 1/2/01 1/2/02 1/2/03 1/2/04 1/2/05 1/2/06 1/2/07 1/2/08 1/2/09 1/2/10 1/2/11 1/2/12 1/2/13 1/2/14 1/2/15 NASDAQ 2000: 1,200 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 2 1 -76%
  60. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1/2/90 1/2/91 1/2/92 1/2/93 1/2/94 1/2/95 1/2/96 1/2/97 1/2/98 1/2/99 1/2/00 1/2/01 1/2/02 1/2/03 1/2/04 1/2/05 1/2/06 1/2/07 1/2/08 1/2/09 1/2/10 1/2/11 1/2/12 1/2/13 1/2/14 1/2/15 NASDAQ Today: 5,000 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance 3 2 +417% 1
  61. If you were a consultant for a month, how would you prefer to be paid?
  62. $10,000 per week…
  63. …or 1 PENNY on day 1, doubling every day?
  64. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31 $10,000 $0 $10K ¢1 Day 1
  65. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31 $10,000$10,000 $0$0 ¢31 $10K Day 5
  66. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31 $20,000 $10,000$10,000 $10$0$0 $10 $20K Day 10
  67. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31 $20,000$20,000 $10,000$10,000 $328$10$0$0 $328 $20K Day 15
  68. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31 $30,000 $20,000$20,000 $10,000$10,000 $21,000 $328$10$0$0 $21K $30K Day 21
  69. $0 $5,250,000 $10,500,000 $15,750,000 $21,000,000 Day 1 Day 5 Day 10 Day 15 Day 21 Day 31 $40,000$30,000$20,000$20,000$10,000$10,000 $21,474,836 $21,000$328$10$0$0 $40K $21 millionDay 31
  70. Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.
  71. He who understands it, earns it…
  72. …he who doesn’t, pays it.
  73. Rule of 72
  74. Interest Rate Years to Double $1 in 30 Years 3% 24 $2.43 6% 12 $5.74 9% 8 $13.27 12% 6 $29.96 15% 5 $66.21 25% 3 $807.79 Rule of 72
  75. Island of Manhattan, 1626
  76. Island of Manhattan, 1626 Bought for $24… Good deal?
  77. Island of Manhattan, 1626 Value Today at 5% Annual Return $4 billion
  78. Island of Manhattan, 1626 Value Today at 7.5% Annual Return $36.9 trillion
  79. Island of Manhattan, 1626 Value Today at 10% Annual Return $275 quadrillion
  80. 2000 2015 $0.04 $7.03 Cost of Computing (per MM transistors) Source: Deloitte
  81. 2000 2015 $0.02 $4.77 Cost of Storage (per GB) Source: Deloitte
  82. 1990: $20K Today: $1 Source: Deloitte
  83. Moore’s Law Source: Intel
  84. Global Internet Users (billions) 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 21% CAGR Source: Internet Live Stats
  85. 2.1B Smart Phone Users Source: Strategy Analytics
  86. 2012 2013 2014 (P) 2015 (P) 2016 (P) 2017 (P) 270 225 180 140 100 70 Android and iOS App Downloads (billions) Source: Gartner 31% CAGR
  87. Human Genome Project 1990
  88. Cost to Map Genome in 2003: $100M Source: NIH
  89. Cost to Map Genome in 2015: $100 Source: NIH, 23andMe, GSV Asset Management
  90. $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 Moore’s Law in Solar - Swanson’s Law Costs decline has enabled solar to reach grid parity Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  91. Source: Facebook, World Bank Population Size 1.4B 1.24B1.35B
  92. Market Cap: $245 Billion
  93. Tweets per Day 500M Source: Statistic Brain, GSV Asset Management
  94. Source: Google 1 Billion Viewers Watching 6 Billion Hours Per Month
  95. 586 Million Minutes Talking Per Day Source: Wall Street Journal
  96. Total Number of Twitter Accounts [INSERT]Source: Facebook 64 Billion WhatsApp Messages per Day
  97. Total Number of Twitter Accounts [INSERT] 700 Million Snaps per Day Source: SnapChat
  98. None of These Companies Existed Before 9/11
  99. Total Unicorns, 2000: 1 Source: Fortune
  100. Total Unicorns, Today: 97 Source: Wall Street Journal
  101. UBERcorns… $10B+ Source: Wall Street Journal
  102. Bubble vs. Boom
  103. NASDAQ Top 10: 2000 Company P/E Microsoft 57x Cisco 127x Intel 43x Oracle 103x Sun Microsystems 85x Dell 57x MCI Worldcom 22x Chartered Semiconductor 53x Qualcomm 123x Yahoo! 418x Source: Barron’s
  104. NASDAQ 100 P/E 2000: 105x Source: CNN Money
  105. NASDAQ Top 10: 2015 Company P/E Apple 15x Google 19x Microsoft 16x Facebook 30x Amazon NM Intel 14x Gilead Sciences 11x Cisco 13x Comcast 17x Amgen 17x Source: Barron’s
  106. NASDAQ 100 P/E 2015: 19x Source: GSV Asset Management
  107. Median Time to IPO Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 3 Years
  108. Median Time to IPO Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 3 Years Today: 7 Years
  109. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: $18M Median Annual Revenue at IPO
  110. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: $18M Median Annual Revenue at IPO Today: $68M
  111. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 370 million (6%) Internet Access
  112. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 370 million (6%) Internet Access Today: 3.1 billion (43%)
  113. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 60 million (1%) Broadband Access
  114. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 60 million (6%) Today: 2.3 billion (32%) Broadband Access
  115. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 180 million (3%) PC Penetration
  116. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 180 million (3%) PC Penetration Today: 1.4 billion (20%)
  117. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 740 million (12%) Mobile Phone Penetration
  118. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 740 million (12%) Mobile Phone Penetration Today: 5.2 billion (73%)
  119. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Smart Phone Penetration 2000: 0
  120. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune Today: 2.1 billion (28%) Smart Phone Penetration 2000: 0
  121. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 0 App Downloads
  122. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 0 Today: 140+ billion App Downloads
  123. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 6% Digital Natives in Workforce
  124. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 6% Digital Natives in Workforce Today: 35%
  125. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 1.4 billion Global Middle Class
  126. Source: National Venture Capital Association, PwC, WilmerHale, Fortune 2000: 1.4 billion Global Middle Class Today: 2.5 billion
  127. Old Global Innovation Map
  128. London “Risk isn’t my cup of tea.”
  129. New York City “If it’s such a good idea, why hasn’t it been done already.”
  130. Minneapolis “Looks promising… Let’s test it.”
  131. San Francisco “Can I write you a check?”
  132. Shanghai “Great idea. Now it’s my idea.”
  133. New Global Innovation Map
  134. Austin
  135. Boston
  136. Chicago
  137. Sao Paulo
  138. Mumbai
  139. Shanghai
  140. Dubai
  141. Global Silicon Valley
  142. ImagiNation
  143. Blackberry Apple $70$70 2007 Market Cap: Apple vs. Blackberry Source: Capital IQ, GSV Asset Management
  144. Blackberry Apple $730 $5 2015 Market Cap: Apple vs. Blackberry Source: Capital IQ, GSV Asset Management
  145. Founded: 1921
  146. Founded: 2009
  147. Market Value: $41 Billion
  148. St. Peter ’s Sq uare : 2 0 0 5
  149. St. Peter ’s Sq uare : 2 0 1 3
  150. Founded: 1888
  151. Market Value: Bankrupt
  152. Founded: 2011
  153. Market Value: $16 Billion
  154. Founded: 1957
  155. Market Cap: $8 Billion
  156. Founded: 2008
  157. Market Value: $13 Billion++
  158. Megatrends Social-Mobile Cloud+BigData Marketplaces Sustainability EducationTechnology Investment Themes
  159. PEOPLE PRODUCT POTENTIALPREDICTABILITY
  160. Megatrends EvaluationOwnership 4Ps DCF, P/S Datapoints + Milestones Growth Drives Enterprise Value Themes Ranking of Companies Underwriting Investment Confirmation, On Track Megawinners Industry Ten Commandments Company Valuation Short Term Long Term Identifying and Investing in the Stars of Tomorrow

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