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Prospects for  Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective     Nigeria: The Next Generation First Meeting of the Task Force   Abuja, Nigeria   December 4-5, 2009
Structure of the presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Nigeria’s economy has stagnated: No growth in income per capita Source: World Development Indicators, 2008
Indonesia and Pakistan have seen economic growth Source: World Development Indicators, 2008
Nigeria’s economy  compared with world regions Source: World Development Indicators, 2008
Comparing economic growth rates Source: World Development Indicators, 2008 average annual growth rate of GDP/capita (PPP), 1980 - 2006
Nigeria’s population has grown rapidly Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Nigeria’s fertility rate has started to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The infant mortality rate has fallen,  but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Life expectancy has risen,  but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Crude birth and death rates are falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Population growth has been rapid Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people has been pretty steady Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Changing age structure, 1950-2010: A 3-dimensional view Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
Education level varies by population group ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Employment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Marriage, first birth, and contraception ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fertility varies by population group ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What we’ve seen so far ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Average annual growth rate of  GDP per capita, 1975-2005 Source: World Bank,  World Development Indicators 2008
Changing age structure, 1960-2005 Source: UN, World Population Prospects
The Demographic Transition Population   growth rate time Death rate Birth rate
Population age structure is a robust and powerful predictor of economic growth  ,[object Object],One third (about 2 percentage points) of the growth of income per capita in East Asia during 1965-90 is attributable to the independent influence of changes in age structure.   Income
Reaping the demographic dividend is not automatic, and may not be permanent ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Complementary policies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
Nigeria’s population is set to soar Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The fertility rate is expected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The infant mortality rate is projected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Life expectancy will continue to rise Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Crude birth and death rates will continue to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Population growth rate will decline substantially Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people is set to increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Growth of the working-age to non-working-age ratio, 1960-2050 ( under 3 UN fertility scenarios) Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
The bottom line:  demographic change can lead to  economic growth
Comparing the growth rates of the working-age and non-working-age population Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Changing age structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with Indonesia and Pakistan Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
Changing age structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with East Asia Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
The size of the 60+ population  will increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
Reaping the demographic dividend: cautionary points regarding Nigeria ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Take-home messages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria – a demographic perspective

  • 1. Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective Nigeria: The Next Generation First Meeting of the Task Force Abuja, Nigeria December 4-5, 2009
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  • 4. Nigeria’s economy has stagnated: No growth in income per capita Source: World Development Indicators, 2008
  • 5. Indonesia and Pakistan have seen economic growth Source: World Development Indicators, 2008
  • 6. Nigeria’s economy compared with world regions Source: World Development Indicators, 2008
  • 7. Comparing economic growth rates Source: World Development Indicators, 2008 average annual growth rate of GDP/capita (PPP), 1980 - 2006
  • 8. Nigeria’s population has grown rapidly Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 9. Nigeria’s fertility rate has started to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 10. The infant mortality rate has fallen, but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 11. Life expectancy has risen, but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 12. Crude birth and death rates are falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 13. Population growth has been rapid Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 14. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people has been pretty steady Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 15. Changing age structure, 1950-2010: A 3-dimensional view Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
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  • 22. Average annual growth rate of GDP per capita, 1975-2005 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008
  • 23. Changing age structure, 1960-2005 Source: UN, World Population Prospects
  • 24. The Demographic Transition Population growth rate time Death rate Birth rate
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  • 29. Nigeria’s population is set to soar Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 30. The fertility rate is expected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 31. The infant mortality rate is projected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 32. Life expectancy will continue to rise Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 33. Crude birth and death rates will continue to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 34. Population growth rate will decline substantially Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 35. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people is set to increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 36. Growth of the working-age to non-working-age ratio, 1960-2050 ( under 3 UN fertility scenarios) Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
  • 37. The bottom line: demographic change can lead to economic growth
  • 38. Comparing the growth rates of the working-age and non-working-age population Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
  • 39. Changing age structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with Indonesia and Pakistan Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
  • 40. Changing age structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with East Asia Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008
  • 41. The size of the 60+ population will increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008
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