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  1. 1. Homeland Security and Policing: Opportunities and Challenges of Accelerating Change FBI Futures Working Group 2005 John Smart, President, ASF (accelerating.org/slides.html)
  2. 2. Presentation Outline <ul><li>Futures Quiz </li></ul><ul><li>Present Paradigm </li></ul><ul><li>World Security and the Non-Integrating Gap </li></ul><ul><li>Big Picture Future </li></ul><ul><li>Homeland Security and Policing </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  3. 3. I. Futures Quiz
  4. 4. Futures Quiz <ul><li>Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states? </li></ul>
  5. 5. Futures Quiz <ul><li>Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states? </li></ul><ul><li>51 MNC’s and 49 Nations. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Futures Quiz <ul><li>Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________? </li></ul>
  7. 7. Futures Quiz <ul><li>Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________? </li></ul><ul><li>Once every three minutes for Disney. Once every twenty minutes for Sony. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Futures Quiz <ul><li>Q: How much of Hewlett Packard’s revenue comes from products launched in the last year? </li></ul>
  9. 9. Futures Quiz <ul><li>Q: How much of Hewlett Packard’s revenue comes from products launched in the last year? </li></ul><ul><li>70% </li></ul>Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005
  10. 10. Acceleration Awareness <ul><li>What do you see accelerating around you? </li></ul><ul><li>What do you see remaining constant? </li></ul>
  11. 11. Many Accelerations are Underwhelming <ul><li>Some Modest Exponentials: </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr) </li></ul><ul><li>Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years . </li></ul><ul><li>Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002). </li></ul><ul><li>Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002) </li></ul>BusinessWeek , 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
  12. 12. II. Present Paradigm
  13. 13. Moore’s Law <ul><li>Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. </li></ul><ul><li>This is one of several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions. Others relate to speed (the signals have less distance to travel) and computational power (speed × density). </li></ul>
  14. 14. The Extraordinary Present <ul><li>“ There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Gail Carr Feldman </li></ul>
  15. 15. The Future is Already Here <ul><li>We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and a paralyzing adherence to the status quo. </li></ul><ul><li> - David Brin (paraphrased) </li></ul><ul><li>We have two options: Future Shock or Future Shaping </li></ul>
  16. 16. Big Picture <ul><li>Outer Space 2025: Sustainability, Transitioning to Nuclear, Hydrogen and Solar </li></ul><ul><li>Human Space 2025: Advanced Globalization, Transparency, Early Symbiotic Age, Linguistic User Interface, Early Valuecosm </li></ul><ul><li>Inner Space 2025: Synthetic and Computational Biology, Early Technocellular Substrate (Silicon Photonics, Spintronics, Nuclear Energy, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>Cyber Space 2025: GPS/LPS, Local Search, Persistent and Mirror Worlds, Early Artificial Life and Hyperreality </li></ul><ul><li>Hyper Space 2025: Bio-Inspired Computing, Early Personality Capture/DT </li></ul>
  17. 17. America’s Greatest Strategic Interest Today: Managing Globalization <ul><li>“ America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is a role from which America dare not shrink. It is our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first, the one that comes up with the most coherent, credible, and imaginative platform for pursuing it is the party that will own the real bridge to the future.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000). </li></ul>
  18. 18. Globalization Eras <ul><li>Globalization I: 1800’s – WWI </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanism: </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial Revolution, cheap transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Backlash Ideologies: </li></ul><ul><li>Communism, Socialism, Fascism </li></ul>
  19. 19. Globalization Eras <ul><li>Globalization II: 1980’s – Present </li></ul><ul><li>Mechanism: </li></ul><ul><li>Information Revolution, cheap communications </li></ul><ul><li>Backlash Ideologies: </li></ul><ul><li>Fundamentalism, nationalism, civil disobedience, eco-extremism, white collar crime </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: Sem Teto, Hugo Chavez </li></ul>
  20. 20. Globalization Eras <ul><li>These forces have to be kept in check by </li></ul><ul><li>global economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>accountability </li></ul><ul><li>transparency </li></ul><ul><li>fair policies </li></ul><ul><li>minimal government. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Revisit 1929 <ul><li>Business Week’s First Edition: </li></ul><ul><li>IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.” </li></ul><ul><li>PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered factories in San Francisco. </li></ul><ul><li>Could we have predicted that one of these technologies would sustain a relentless, profound, accelerating transformation while another would (on the surface) stay unchanged? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we predict this now? </li></ul>
  22. 22. Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 <ul><li>“ The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain) </li></ul><ul><li>Materials Science (“Substrates”) </li></ul><ul><li>Synthetic Materials </li></ul><ul><li>Transistor (Bell Labs, 1948) </li></ul><ul><li>Microprocessor </li></ul><ul><li>Fiber Optics </li></ul><ul><li>Lasers and Optoelectronics </li></ul><ul><li>Wired and Wireless Networks </li></ul><ul><li>Quantum Wells, Wires, and Dots </li></ul><ul><li>Exotic Condensed Matter </li></ul>BusinessWeek , 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
  23. 23. Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 <ul><li>“ The Microcosm” (the “ICT” domain) </li></ul><ul><li>Systems and Software </li></ul><ul><li>Television (1940’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Mainframes (1950’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Minicomputers (1970’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Personal Computers (1980’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Cellphones/Laptops/PDAs (1990’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Embedded/Distributed Systems (2000’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Pervasive/Ubiquitous Systems (2010’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Cable TV, Satellites, Consumer, Enterprise, Technical Software, Middleware, Web Services, Email, CMS, Early Semantic Web, Search, KM, AI, NLP… </li></ul>BusinessWeek , 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
  24. 24. Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 <ul><li>“ The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) </li></ul><ul><li>Defense and Space (“Security-oriented human-ICT”) </li></ul><ul><li>Aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, ICBMs, cruise missiles, lunar landers, nuclear powered submarines... (theme:major open problems (security)) </li></ul><ul><li>Manufacturing (“Engineering-oriented human-ICT”) </li></ul><ul><li>Lean manufacturing, supply-chain management, process automation, big-box retailing, robotics… (major open problems (theme: rich-poor divide)) </li></ul>BusinessWeek , 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
  25. 25. Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 <ul><li>“ The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) </li></ul><ul><li>Social and Legal (“Fairness-oriented human-ICT”) </li></ul><ul><li>Civil rights, social security, fair labor standards, ADA, EOE, tort reform, class actions, Miranda rights, zoning, DMV code, alimony, palimony, criminal law reform, penal reform, education reform, privacy law, feminism, minority power, spousal rights, gay civil unions... (“accelerating refinements” (vs. disruptive changes), consider E.U. vs. U.S. vs China.) </li></ul>BusinessWeek , 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004
  26. 26. Areas of Accelerating Innovation, 1929-2004 <ul><li>“ The Macrocosm” (the “human-ICT” domain) </li></ul><ul><li>Agrotech/Biotech/Health Care (“Bio-oriented human-ICT”) </li></ul><ul><li>Green revolution, antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, transplants, medical imaging, prosthetics, microsurgery, genomics, proteomics, combinatorial chem, bioinformatics… (“accelerating regulation”) </li></ul><ul><li>Finance (“Capital-oriented human-ICT”) </li></ul><ul><li>Venture capital (American R&D, 1946), credit cards (Bank of America, 1958), mortgage derivs (1970’s), mutual and hedge funds, prog. trading, microcredit… </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation and Energy (“Infrastructure human-ICT”) </li></ul><ul><li>Jet aircraft, helicopters, radar, containerized shipping </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear power, solar energy, gas-powered turbines, </li></ul><ul><li>hydrogen (“accelerating efficiencies (vs. change)”) </li></ul>
  27. 27. Human ICT vs. Microcosmic ICT <ul><li>1. Entertain this radical proposition: “Human ICT” domains are saturating. “Microcosmic ICT” are not. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Defense, security, space, finance, social, legal, agrotech, biotech, health care, finance, transportation, energy and envirotech all will look surprisingly similar in 2030, but with major ICT extensions. </li></ul><ul><li>3. Condensed matter physics, the nanoworld and cosmology continue to surprise us. </li></ul><ul><li>4. ICT (sensors, storage, communication, connectivity, simulation, interface) now look and feel very different. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Physical Space: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth &quot;No one can deny that a  world network of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively .&quot; - Teilhard de Chardin, 1954 “ Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition ”
  29. 29. Our Generation’s Theme <ul><li>First World Saturating, </li></ul><ul><li>Third World Uplifting. </li></ul>
  30. 30. Taiwan’s Example <ul><li>Taiwan requires all university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies. </li></ul><ul><li>Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction). </li></ul><ul><li>Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world. </li></ul><ul><li>Taiwan is the new leader in innovation outsourcing (Quanta, Compal, HTC, Premier = 10,000 R&D Staff) </li></ul><ul><li>Taiwan has the highest degree of economic creative destruction in the world. </li></ul>
  31. 31. Creative Destruction: Creating a Legal and Social Culture of Innovation <ul><li>Of the top 25 companies in each country 25 years ago, how many are still the same? </li></ul><ul><li>France, Germany, Japan: Almost all </li></ul><ul><li>Europe: Most </li></ul><ul><li>United States: Roughly half </li></ul><ul><li>Taiwan, Hong Kong: Very few </li></ul>Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, 2000
  32. 32. III. World Security and the Non-Integrating Gap
  33. 33. The Pentagon’s New Map <ul><li>A New Global Defense Paradigm </li></ul>
  34. 34. Shrinking the Disconnected Gap <ul><li>The Computational “Ozone Hole” </li></ul>
  35. 35. The Disconnected Gap: Our Planetary Ozone Hole <ul><li>Global Polarization (Core vs. Gap) </li></ul><ul><li>“ Disconnectedness (tech, economic, cultural) defines danger.” (Thomas Barnett, Pentagon’s New Map ) </li></ul><ul><li>Strategy: Encircle the Gap, Support the Seam States </li></ul><ul><li>-- Plant resources in “supportive soil.” </li></ul><ul><li>-- Greatest comparative advantage for shrinking the hole (eg. Koreas). </li></ul><ul><li>Strategy: Don’t Stir Up the Ant’s Nest </li></ul><ul><li>-- This is difficult, as due to differential immunity , our cultural memes (materialism, democracy, etc.) are as powerful as the germs that wiped out up to 90% of the less immunologically complex cultures (Rome: 1-200AD, Europe: 1300, America: 1492-1600) </li></ul>
  36. 36. Why the Gap Shrinks <ul><li>“ He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Col. John Boyd, Military Strategist (OODA loop) </li></ul><ul><li>Time compression is one form of MEST compression. </li></ul><ul><li>Why Eurasia won the sociopolitical, technological, military, and germ development race (Largest East-West Axis, earliest domestication of animals, Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel ). </li></ul><ul><li>Why Europeans decimated the Americas and Pacific Islanders with a host of crowd infectious diseases, and not the other way around. </li></ul><ul><li>Why the Gap will shrink to next-to-nothing as we create a transparent global society this century. </li></ul>
  37. 37. Connectivity is a Developmental Attractor <ul><li>Francis Fukuyama ( The End of History ), Thomas Friedmann ( The Lexus and the Olive Branch ), Robert Kagan ( Of Power and Paradise ) Thomas Barnett ( The Pentagon’s New Map ) and Samuel Huntington ( The Clash of Civilizations ) are all mostly right. </li></ul><ul><li>The developmental destination for nation states is becoming clear. But the evolutionary path is bottom up, and so must be culturally unique. </li></ul><ul><li>Our job is to facilitate this one-way transition as uniquely and as measurably as possible. </li></ul><ul><li>These two goals sometimes conflict. </li></ul>
  38. 38. Unconscious Gap Strategy: Measurable Exponential Value (MEV) <ul><li>Culture-appropriate determination of needs </li></ul><ul><li>Invited solutions, two way communication, feedback, local customization </li></ul><ul><li>Subsidize the solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Measure the growth rate (exponentiation) </li></ul><ul><li>Bottom up marketing </li></ul><ul><li>A mix of self sufficiency and philanthropy (development) </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t see exponential adoption, intervention will not be perceived as a comparative advantage. Adapt and iterate. </li></ul>
  39. 39. The Psychology of Exponential Growth <ul><li>Exponential growth keeps people satisfied. </li></ul><ul><li>Benefits are self-reinforcing. </li></ul><ul><li>People maintain behavior on non-zero sum interactions, where the size of the pie and your absolute return grows even as your percentage decreases annually (Robert Wright, Non-Zero , 2000) </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens turn toward personal and local development, much less toward nationalism and ideology (Ron Inglehart, The Silent Revolution , 1976; Modernization and Postmodernization , 2002) </li></ul><ul><li>We can measure this (census and other surveys). </li></ul>
  40. 40. “ Broken Windows” Policies: A Precondition to MEV <ul><li>Broken Windows theory of political scientist James Wilson and criminologist George Kelling ( The Atlantic Monthly , March 1982) </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid response to and repair of the visibly &quot;broken&quot; aspects of a local community increases sense of control, ownership, initiative and vigilance against crime. </li></ul><ul><li>Billboards with easy reporting phone numbers and list of the top acts people should report. Giving statistics and trends. Enlisting the collective in simple vigilance. </li></ul>
  41. 41. Examples: Iraq <ul><li>Communications (cellphones) </li></ul><ul><li>Lighting (digital solid state) </li></ul><ul><li>Energy (centralized economies of scale, subsidized deflationary prices; decentralized storage and generation) </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Donkey cart generators </li></ul><ul><li>Security (networked cameras; camera traps) </li></ul><ul><li>Culturally-dependent: Britain vs. S. Africa vs. U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>Portable CD Players/local music ($10 at Wal-Mart) </li></ul><ul><li>Public access radio and TV stations </li></ul><ul><li>Food storage, culinary, and women’s needs </li></ul><ul><li>Sports / Youth Fads </li></ul>
  42. 42. IDAP Technology Processes <ul><li>Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Diffusion </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Policy </li></ul><ul><li>“ The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet.” – William Gibson </li></ul><ul><li>First to third world diffusion is arguably the greatest gap. But culture-appropriate assessment processes, sensitive policymaking, and fostering cultures of innovation are also important. </li></ul>
  43. 43. The Key Strategic Question with any Gap Intervention <ul><li>Not whether we could have been liked better, won more “hearts and minds” (in Iraq or among our allies). </li></ul><ul><li>The key question is the degree to which new exponential ecologies (technological, economic, social) are adopted and persist in the community. </li></ul><ul><li>-- Tools, Markets, Rules </li></ul><ul><li>We can measure this (operations research). </li></ul>
  44. 44. The Say-Do Development Gap <ul><li>2,600 Iraqi Development Projects Promised </li></ul><ul><li>160 under way presently. ( Time, July 2004) </li></ul><ul><li>Of all of these, communications projects have been our biggest shortcoming. </li></ul><ul><li>We wired ourselves superbly (CPOF) but we never wired in to the populace, or even helped them to wire themselves, in exponential fashion. </li></ul><ul><li>Example: DARPA/USC ICT Tactical Language project. Top-down thinking. “A.I.” vs. Persistent Worlds. </li></ul><ul><li>We could have had scores of Iraqi/Arabic youth teaching our incoming soldiers tactical culture in massively multiplayer online worlds, and using those worlds for their own benefit as well. A tipping point among the youth (like Satellite Television in India, etc.). </li></ul>
  45. 45. Immune Recognition vs. Rejection <ul><li>The phenomenon of immune recognition (and immune tolerance) vs. rejection. </li></ul><ul><li>The honeymoon period. </li></ul><ul><li>Rejection, if no measurable exponential value within the host network. </li></ul><ul><li>We did not pass this test (in fairness, we may never have passed). </li></ul><ul><li>Nevertheless, there were many missed opportunities for deploying MEV strategy. </li></ul>
  46. 46. Tech Immune Systems Example: Cellphones <ul><li>Cellphones are an intrinsically defensive asset. </li></ul><ul><li>-- Monitorable (location and content) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Strengthen personal networks </li></ul><ul><li>-- The mean can self-police the extremes (report scofflaws) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Granular privileges (given and revoked) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Can be built robustly (dynamo, shoe batts) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Chip provides superior ID (address books) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Hot button to security radio band </li></ul>
  47. 47. Tech Immune Systems Example: Firearms for Police <ul><li>Networked weapons are an intrinsically defensive asset. </li></ul><ul><li>-- Single shot magazines (deterrence) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Cameras and microphones (“Black Box”) </li></ul><ul><li>-- Cellphone to CENTCOM when safety off </li></ul><ul><li>-- The best training possible (on the job) </li></ul><ul><li>-- The inevitable future (worldwide buyback of all non-networked lethals except antiques (eg. Australia) the emergence of networked non-lethals. </li></ul>
  48. 48. What is our ‘control’ study? <ul><li>How do we know providing Measurable Exponential Value would have worked in Iraq? </li></ul><ul><li>What’s our ‘control’ for the connectivity doctrine? The Gap’s own history: </li></ul><ul><li>Maoist China, Kampuchea, Afghanistan. </li></ul><ul><li>Every example of swings away from connectivity has been unsustainable in space and time. </li></ul>
  49. 49. U.S. Army: Development Challenges and Opportunities <ul><li>Security Leader </li></ul><ul><li>Development Follower </li></ul><ul><li>This makes institutional sense. A natural constraint. </li></ul><ul><li>Many development capability options: </li></ul><ul><li>Specialization (Corps of Engineers, etc.). </li></ul><ul><li>Unique Capacities (Fire and weather mgmt, FLEs) </li></ul><ul><li>Competition (Cross services bidding) </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives if under budget and before deadline with quality (ex: Kowloon Tunnel (Hong Kong), Human Genome Project, etc.)) </li></ul><ul><li>Networks ( America’s Army : worldwide devel. recruits) </li></ul><ul><li>Partnerships. Most obvious: USAID (long term optimists). Many others as well (bottom up). </li></ul>
  50. 50. IV. Big Picture Future
  51. 51. Systems Theory <ul><li>Systems Theorists Make Things Simple </li></ul><ul><li>(sometimes too simple!) </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>— Albert Einstein </li></ul>
  52. 52. Smart’s Laws of Technology <ul><li>1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). </li></ul><ul><li>2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. </li></ul><ul><li>(Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a proprietary or open source development) </li></ul><ul><li>3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers). </li></ul>
  53. 53. Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)
  54. 54. The Technological Singularity: 2 nd Order “Envelope of S-Curves”? Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own S-shaped “capability curve.” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.
  55. 55. Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change <ul><li>Technological (dominant since 1950!) </li></ul><ul><li>“ It’s all about the technology ” (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed) </li></ul><ul><li>Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now) </li></ul><ul><li>“ It’s all about the money ” (who has it, control they gain with it) </li></ul><ul><li>Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) </li></ul><ul><li>“ It’s all about the power ” (who has it, control they gain with it) </li></ul><ul><li>Developmental Trends: </li></ul><ul><li>1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.” </li></ul><ul><li>2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. </li></ul><ul><li>Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of media, tort law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. </li></ul>
  56. 56. Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles? <ul><li>A 30-year cycle , from 1990-2020 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1st gen &quot;stupid net &quot; /early IA, weak nano, 2nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A 20-year cycle , from 2020-2040 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LUI network , Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A 10-year cycle , from 2040-2050 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2050: Era of Strong Autonomy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric. </li></ul></ul>
  57. 57. Henry Adams, 1909: The First Singularity Theorist The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter &quot;bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities.&quot; Wild speculation or computational reality? Still too early to tell, at present.
  58. 58. Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” ( Φ ) : A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Free Energy Rate Density Substrate (ergs/second/gram) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 (“counterintuitive”) Planets (Early) 75 Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000( 10^4 ) Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5) Int. Comb. Engines (10^6) Jets (10^8) Pentium Chips ( 10^11 ) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution , 2001 Ф time
  59. 59. Understanding MEST Compression MEST compression/Time The Finite Universe Box Six Billion Years Ago We End Up Here An Upper Complexity Bound? A Forward Time Bound? Calculations per second/ Model complexity/Intelligence
  60. 60. MEST Compression: Managing Technological Development <ul><li>Since the birth of civilization, humanity has been learning to build special types of technological systems that are progressively able to do more for us, in a more networked and resilient fashion, using less resources (matter, energy, space, time, human and economic capital) to deliver any fixed amount of complexity, productivity, or capability. </li></ul><ul><li>We are faced daily with many possible evolutionary choices in which to invest our precious time, energy, and resources, but only a few optimal developmental pathways will clearly &quot;do more, and better, with less.&quot; </li></ul>
  61. 61. The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Complex Environmental Interaction Selection & Convergence “ Convergent Selection” Emergence,Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Replication & Variation “ Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Right Hand Left Hand Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization New Computat’l Phase Space Opening
  62. 62. Cambrian Explosion Complex Environmental Interaction Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.” Invertebrates Vertebrates Bacteria  Insects Multicellularity Discovered
  63. 63. Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development) The marbles ( systems ) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable ( evolutionary ) paths. But the paths predictably converge ( development ) on low points ( MEST compression ), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.
  64. 64. How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? <ul><li>Evolution tried this experiment. </li></ul><ul><li>Development calculated an operational optimum. </li></ul><ul><li>Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks ) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye. </li></ul>
  65. 65. How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile? <ul><li>Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity. </li></ul>
  66. 66. Physical Space: A Transparent Society (“Panopticon”) Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency David Brin, The Transparent Society , 1998
  67. 67. Stratellites: A Developmental Attractor? <ul><li>Border monitoring (low altitude drug flights) </li></ul><ul><li>City monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Early warning radar </li></ul><ul><li>Urban broadband </li></ul>Inventor: Hokan Colting 21stCenturyAirships.com 180 feet diameter. Autonomous. 60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles) Permanent geosynch. location. Onboard solar and navigation. A “quarter sized” receiver dish. Why are satellites presently losing against the wired world? Latency, bandwidth, and launch costs. MEST compression always wins. Don’t bet against it!
  68. 68. Physical Space: Is Biotech a Saturated Substrate? <ul><li>21 st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t accelerate biological complexity! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Most complex structure in the known universe” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>We’ll learn a lot, not biologically “redesign humans” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Biologically inspired computing. “Structural mimicry.” </li></ul></ul>
  69. 69. Virtual Space: Is Inner Space the Final Frontier? <ul><li>Mirror Worlds , David Gelernter, 1998. Real structures in spacetime (very large and very small) are: </li></ul><ul><li>Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent) </li></ul><ul><li>A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development </li></ul><ul><li>Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science </li></ul><ul><li>A “ rear view mirror ” on the developmental trajectory of emergence of universal intelligence? </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li> versus </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain
  70. 70. Interface: Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) <ul><li>Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators. </li></ul>
  71. 71. Interface: Understanding Process Automation <ul><li>Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”). </li></ul><ul><li>Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” </li></ul><ul><li>Human contribution ( 20%? ) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education </li></ul><ul><li>Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). </li></ul><ul><li>Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. </li></ul>Termite Mound
  72. 72. An ICT Attractor: The Linguistic User Interface <ul><li>Google’s cache (2002) </li></ul><ul><li>Watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020… </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech </li></ul>
  73. 73. <ul><li>In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. </li></ul><ul><li>No other credible long term futures have been proposed. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) </li></ul>Personality Capture
  74. 74. Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org “ I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “ I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological will feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way.
  75. 75. V. Homeland Security and Policing
  76. 76. FBI Mission <ul><li>To protect and defend the United States against terrorist and foreign intelligence threats , </li></ul><ul><li>To uphold and enforce the criminal laws of the United States </li></ul><ul><li>To provide leadership and criminal justice services to federal, state, municipal, and international agencies and partners. </li></ul>
  77. 77. FBI Priorities <ul><li>1. Protect the United States from terrorist attack. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Protect the United States against foreign intelligence operations and espionage. </li></ul><ul><li>3. Protect the United States against cyber-based attacks and high-technology crimes. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Combat public corruption at all levels. </li></ul><ul><li>5. Protect civil rights. </li></ul><ul><li>6. Combat transnational and national criminal organizations and enterprises. </li></ul><ul><li>7. Combat major white-collar crime. </li></ul><ul><li>8. Combat significant violent crime. </li></ul><ul><li>9. Support federal, state, county, municipal, and international partners. </li></ul><ul><li>10. Upgrade technology to successfully perform the FBI’s mission. </li></ul><ul><li>Major priority transitions are rare. The FBI is in one now. This is a unique time of opportunity and responsibility. </li></ul>
  78. 78. FBI FWG Mission <ul><li>“The Futures Working Group will identify and promote innovation for the future of policing.” </li></ul><ul><li>Implicit message: </li></ul><ul><li>Leadership in innovation promotion. </li></ul>
  79. 79. Branches of Government <ul><li>Executive Branch (enforces the law) </li></ul><ul><li>Legislative Branch (makes the law) </li></ul><ul><li>Judicial Branch (interprets the law) The executive branch (DoJ, etc.) also forms new policy and leads the country. How do we cultivate a greater leadership, policy-forming, and executive culture (e.g. a culture of innovation and calculated risk-taking) in the FBI? </li></ul>
  80. 80. Tools for Shaping the Future <ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Literacy / Scanning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Technological </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social/Political </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Culture of Foresight </li></ul><ul><li>Culture of Innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Culture of Competition </li></ul><ul><li>Local Commitment </li></ul><ul><li>Global Perspective </li></ul>
  81. 81. National Innovation Initiative Recommendations (sample) Innovate America , NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004 Our Biggest Opportunity: Innovation partnerships with the 3 billion new workers who weren’t in the global economy ten years ago. Improved IP, tort law, intangible disclosure law. Reward ten regional “innovation hotspots” with 5 yrs of funding Matching funds for postsecondary MS programs in tech and innovation National innovation scorecard, prizes. Better patent office. Develop “services science” as a new academic discipline Portable graduate tech fellowships similar to NSF fellowships New innovation metrics, national innovation agenda 3% of DoD budget must go back to sci-tech, 20% of this at U’s National sci-tech scholarship fund, tax credits to contributors Cabinet-level or NEC interagency group 3% of federal R&D for “innov. accel.” grants Expedited, expanded sci-tech immigration Politics Investment Talent
  82. 82. U.S. Innovation/Competitiveness/Acceleration has flagged in recent years <ul><li>China surpassed the U.S. this year as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2002, US Corporate R&D declined by $8 billion, largest percentage drop since 1950. </li></ul><ul><li>Five countries (Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Finland, Israel) spend more GDP on R&D than the U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign owned companies and foreign born inventors now count for nearly half of all U.S. patents, with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan accounting for more than one fourth. </li></ul><ul><li>Federal R&D funding is now 1/2 of its 1960's peak of 2% of GDP. </li></ul><ul><li>Total scientific papers by American authors peaked in 1992 and have been flat ever since. </li></ul><ul><li>Services are the fastest growing sector of many technology companies, yet much of our service sector, now more than half the U.S. economy, traditionally does little R&D on business process design, organization, and management. </li></ul>Innovate America , NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004
  83. 83. Innovation/Competitiveness/Acceleration vs. Efficiency/Cooperation/Sustainability <ul><li>The first of these macro processes of change is in our control (evo), second is less so (devo). </li></ul><ul><li>Ideally each must be equally prioritized, in general (yet not in specific contexts). </li></ul><ul><li>Asia presently overweighted to the former, Europe is overweighted to the latter. </li></ul><ul><li>The U.S. has fallen behind in the former in recent years. </li></ul>Innovate America , National Innovation Initiative, Council on Competitiveness, 2004
  84. 84. Solutions: Education and Civics <ul><li>How do we educate our youth (and criminal justice undergrads) to have a futures perspective? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we help youth understand how to create a better individual future through collective action? </li></ul><ul><li>Show them scenarios of various community futures, utopian and dystopian . </li></ul>
  85. 85. Solutions: Networks and Feedback <ul><li>How do we maximize the value of citizen security suggestions on 311 and other forums? Cell phones increase citizen empowerment and reporting of scofflaws. How can these be used in homeland security? </li></ul><ul><li>When IPTV comes, every city will have its own channel. How can citizens use phone cams to decrease violence and vandalism? Example: Trap TV, reporting of citizen-submitted candid camera footage of vandalizers and law-breakers asking for citizen help to identify the perps. </li></ul>
  86. 86. Solutions: Neighborhood Involvement <ul><li>Neighborhood watch and citizen networks, crime tip billboards, posted rewards, and local police that are trusted confidants. </li></ul><ul><li>Community-oriented and problem solving policing. Personalized and localized security solutions by law enforcement personnel who know the residents of their community. </li></ul>
  87. 87. Solutions: Auto Safety, Automated and Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems <ul><li>- How much would it cost to add remote kill switches to new model cars? Perhaps in combination with LoJacks (vehicle locators). This would eventually end high-speed chases, a significant source of officer fatalities. </li></ul><ul><li>- Is law enforcement ready to advocate for increasingly automated vehicle navigation? </li></ul><ul><li>Thirty years from now, Automated Highway Systems (AHS) may save half of the 42,000 auto fatalities a year in the US, perhaps one third of the 1.3 million auto annually fatalities worldwide. Consider the law enforcement resources that will be freed up from auto-related activities in this transition. </li></ul><ul><li>In the interim, Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) can have increasing impact, and should be advocated for. </li></ul>
  88. 88. Solutions: Simulation Games <ul><li>America’s Army has been a great armed forces simulation and recruiting tool. When can we expect America’s Justice ? America’s FBI ? </li></ul><ul><li>Will Wright, creator of The Sims , would probably jump at the chance to produce an appropriately funded and sanctioned law enforcement simulation. </li></ul>
  89. 89. Solutions: Virtual Crime Maps <ul><li>When can we bring America’s Most Wanted into the virtual space? </li></ul><ul><li>A universally accessible virtual police blotter for crime in a major metro area would: </li></ul><ul><li>make people more aware of community crime </li></ul><ul><li>allow them to see law enforcement in action </li></ul><ul><li>make crime solving and cold cases more transparent </li></ul><ul><li>make high income cities more willing to fund crime prevention programs in adjacent low-income, high-crime cities. </li></ul>
  90. 90. Solutions: Financial Innovation <ul><li>How do we securitize the safety of a community? </li></ul><ul><li>Key Idea: Why don’t cities issue bonds with interest rates keyed to public safety and security indicators? </li></ul><ul><li>If traded publicly, there would be an incentive to raise their value by lowering crime indicators further. </li></ul>
  91. 91. Solutions: Law Enforcement Partnership with Private Legal Groups <ul><li>Southern Poverty Law Center </li></ul><ul><li>Hate speech, racial intolerance, patriot groups. How can law enforcement help their cause? </li></ul><ul><li>Who is the counterpart to the Electronic Frontier Foundation? Cyber freedoms come with cyber responsibilities. Can law enforcement ask NGOs to engage in security activism? </li></ul><ul><li>Who is suing the authors of Hacking: The Art of Exploitation , 2004 for incitement? How do we minimize incitement? Laws? Conduct codes? Civics? </li></ul><ul><li>One Model: “hate speech” codes of conduct at U.S. universities. </li></ul>
  92. 92. Problems: Cyber Crime <ul><li>US street crime is trending down since 1994 (Internet?). Cyber crime is increasing. Identity theft is the number one cyber crime. Old crime, powerful new venue. </li></ul>
  93. 93. Solutions: Law Enforcement Advocating for a Transparent Internet <ul><li>Someone needs to advocate for an internet immune system, a secure digital identity. This legal and technological innovation will solve a host of security problems. </li></ul><ul><li>Question: Law enforcement has a unique ability to paint the true cost of identity theft and other cyber crime. Is there an activist role for short term administrative leaders or retiring officers here? Unseen strategic partnerships? </li></ul><ul><li>When will cyberspace move out of the wild west? </li></ul>
  94. 94. Problems: Labor Unions and Innovation <ul><li>Technologies that improve productivity necessarily displace labor (robots, voicemail, etc.). </li></ul><ul><li>From 1983 to 2002, workers in protective service occupations including police officers had the highest union membership rate (37% in 2002) of any broad occupation group in every year. (BLS) </li></ul>
  95. 95. Solutions: Labor Stratification (Temps vs. Permanent) <ul><li>Does your union acknowledge the necessity for temp and contract workers and job retraining in an age of constant productivity innovation? </li></ul><ul><li>Do you have a set of permanent staff who get extra pay and privileges for being beta testers of a wide array of products and services (from small and large businesses?) </li></ul>
  96. 96. Problem: Metropolitan Staff Redundancy <ul><li>Massive departmental duplication of law enforcement staff function in adjacent cities. How much money could be saved on a gradual phase out of this system in every city over 1 million population? </li></ul>
  97. 97. Solution: Integrated Metro Model <ul><li>Kaiser Permanente (HMO) has an integration model that is working in medicine. One great advantage, besides cost savings: more super-and sub-specialist functions can now be afforded. What super- and sub-specialists would we want to see in law enforcement? </li></ul>
  98. 98. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Crime-ridden inner cities </li></ul>
  99. 99. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Crime-ridden inner cities </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: Subsidized front-lawn cameras (camera traps) photographing all neighborhood activity, car drive-bys, people, etc. </li></ul>
  100. 100. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Inadequate gun control </li></ul>
  101. 101. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Inadequate gun control </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: Networked legal and non-legal weapons. Lojacked weapons (stings). Approved database of networked weapon manufacturers. </li></ul>
  102. 102. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Widening income gaps, loss of middle class weakens democracy </li></ul>
  103. 103. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Widening income gaps, loss of middle class weakens democracy </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: This dynamic is pendular. There was no middle class 100 years ago, maximum middle class 50 years ago. How do we reverse the current trend? </li></ul>
  104. 104. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Underfunded, archaic, and over-regulated public schools </li></ul>
  105. 105. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Underfunded, archaic, and over-regulated public schools </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: Digital kids. More online education. Home schooling resources. Young teacher recruitment. Technology internships. </li></ul>
  106. 106. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Culture of litigation </li></ul>
  107. 107. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Culture of litigation </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: Another pendular dynamic. Do we have the right balance? </li></ul>
  108. 108. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Overly consumerist culture </li></ul>
  109. 109. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Overly consumerist culture </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: Media reform, access to alternative views. Public education on individual and social costs of consumption. IPTV and intelligent internet are coming. </li></ul>
  110. 110. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Lax campaign finance laws, plutocratic politics. </li></ul>
  111. 111. U.S. Problems & Solutions <ul><li>Problem: Lax campaign finance laws, plutocratic politics. </li></ul><ul><li>Solution: Plutocracy is pendular. What kind of corporate and special interest excess will it take to bring back a democratizing President? (e.g. Teddy or Franklin Delano Roosevelt?) </li></ul>
  112. 112. VI. Conclusions
  113. 113. Conclusions <ul><li>We live in a world in a world of accelerating technological capacities. </li></ul><ul><li>There is an increasing opportunity gap between potential and applied solutions. </li></ul><ul><li>Futures studies, innovation studies, and leadership can help us prioritize and bridge this gap. </li></ul><ul><li>The FBI, as a member of the executive branch of the world’s leading democracy, has a unique leadership responsibilty. </li></ul><ul><li>Applying futures and innovation to the department first, and the community second, will allow effective leadership by example. </li></ul>
  114. 114. In Appreciation <ul><li>Thank you for inviting me. </li></ul><ul><li>The ASF would be honored to serve the FBI Futures Working Group in achieving its 21 st century goals. </li></ul>

Notes de l'éditeur

  • Smile!  David Brin: positive attitude, readily admitting what we don’t know.
  • MNC’s benefit even more than nation states in the era of globalization. There are only 280 nation states and an unlimited number of MNC’s.
  • In the automation economy, consumer products are as easy to make as information. Consumer education and laws that attribute the true cost to each product can “rationalize” a consumer economy.
  • (this may be an anomaly) The more powerful innovation becomes, the more the public expects the latest offerings to be the best solution. What private sector security and community development companies and products have this dynamic?
  • Our accelerating world adds regular surprise to the mix. If you aren’t surprised (perhaps even astonished) at least once a day, you aren’t looking closely enough.
  • We have two options: Future Shock or Future Shaping . Never has the lever of technology been so powerful. Never have so few had so much impact, and unrealized potential for impact.
  • With no skills to take modern jobs, they steal what they need. Supermarkets, trucks, even bank heists. Anti-globalization populists like Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. Al Qaedas and Zapatistas want global disconnection.
  • (Human pop. flatlines in 2050. “First World effect” 2nd order deriv. of world energy demand is negative. ICT acceleration continues.) We see evolutionarily more and better of the above, but now global, not local.
  • Compare US to Taiwan, and also to more stagnant economies like Europe, and copycats like Japan.
  • Leadership is also mentioned in the FBI’
  • How about a simulation of a real-world Watts where you get points for cleaning up the graffiti and gangs with a very limited budget?
  • Many of the greatest innovations of the 20th century have been financial innovations, specifically securitization innovations (making a market liquid). As crime rates go down, this increases community investment and revenues. Perhaps only residents could hold these bonds initially. State and feds should be willing to subsidize these in problem states and cities. They would generate an investor attitude among the underprivileged, could be distributed to high school grads, civil servants, volunteers. They would be like stocks in that they would be instruments with highly variable dividends. Branding would recall the 1940’s wartime “Buy Bonds” billboards.
  • Why is it that when new IT becomes available some countries (US) and companies (Dell) adopt them quickly and others do not? Labor laws and ease of hiring and firing are key to institutional technology adoption. Relationships between industry and unions are rate-limiting for change. What percentage of temp workers does your industry employ? In the recent hockey strike, unions of owners collectively bargained with unions of players. How would the protective service employers be “unionized”? How important is it for the FBI to lead innovation standards in protective services?