2. Epicentre for share loss for a leading brand was the Private channel within the South region
Sales tracker for enabling a real time understanding of
the business performance to help identify outages in a
timely manner and ensure immediate course-correction
measures.
Below is an example of how a leading alco-bev
manufacture in India is tracking sales performance for
all key states by regions/channels/outlets. The report
helped the client identify epicenter of share loss for one
of its leading brand in one of the top salient markets.
Break-up of our brand’s overall 5% share loss in by Regions Break-up of our brand’s 3.2% share loss in South Region by Channels
SKU 1 is driving the share loss in South Region Pvt. channel
• Most of the share loss
was coming from their
leading SKU in the South
region in the Private
channel. We also
highlighted the top
salient outlets that
needed to be addressed
on priority basis.
• Based on this, the client
was able to draft out the
counter strategy for the
priority outlets.
Benefits to the Business
Sales report & trend analysis
3. Evaluate growth pillars for the category (regions, sub-categories) based on historic & forecasted growth trend
Sales tracker for enabling a real time understanding of
the business performance to help identify outages in a
timely manner and ensure immediate course-correction
measures.
Below is an example of a leading OTC player is looking
at drafting their annual strategic plan for all their core
categories based on historic performance across
markets and forecasted growth.
Sales report & trend analysis
across markets
4. Marketelligent PRISM calculates the incremental sales
lift (µ) because of various in-store promotions without
building a predictive model.
It is a real-time tool that provides continuous
monitoring and evaluation of promotion effectiveness.
Marketelligent PRISM for measuring sales lift from streaming sales data
Framework for continuous monitoring and evaluation of trade and marketing programs
Streaming sales data
(Weekly or Monthly)
Sales and Marketing
promotion calendar
Sales and Marketing
promotion Spends
Weekly trends of promotional
activity
• Lift
• Incremental sales
After activity reports
• Total lift
• Total incremental sales
• ROI
Quarterly Reports
• Cross Category / Channel /
Geography summaries
INPUT OUTPUT
Continuous monitoring
& evaluation
Learnings fed back for future
planning
µ Display
µ Feature
µ Consumer
µ TPR
Decomposed Lift (µ)
.
.
.
Streaming sales data fed
weekly or monthly as is
available
Promotion calendar fed into the
system periodically
Marketelligent
PRISM
Marketelligent PRISM
6. A good demand forecast helps improve sales volume,
cash flow and hence the profitability, by optimizing
inventory and by minimizing out-of-stock. Besides
considering historical data, external factors like
promotion, seasonality, price changes, macro-
economic conditions are also considered for more
accurate forecasts.
Different statistical techniques used for sales forecasting:
Sales Forecasting
Forecasting sales for a leading alco-bev manufacturer
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 Actual Sales Forecasted Sales Base Line Sales
ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average) Holt-Winters Forecasting
Year on Year Growth Rate model
• Inventory Control
• Minimizing Out of Stock
• Improving product
freshness & warehouse
efficiency
• Maximizing warehouse
space utilization
• Capitalizing on peak
sales weeks
Benefits to the Business
7. The SKU Rationalization study evaluated factors such
as overall revenue contribution, growth rates and
profile of customers buying a particular segment.
These metrics were compared with overall style group
and color customer preferences YoY, and a comparison
of reactivation behavior of returning customers whose
SKUs were discontinued post 2010 v/s those whose
SKUs were not. We helped the client arrive at a
strategy that rationalized 30-40% of SKUs in various
segments with no risk of a revenue impact.
• Color and style group preferences consistent YoY; safe to rationalize non performing categories
• Reactivation levels for discontinued v/s continued SKU customers
• Customer sub segments further analysed to exclude any SKUs from rationalization that may impact revenues
Secondary Analysis
• Segmentation
of top 80%
style groups,
80-98% style
groups and
bottom 2%
• Cap for top
colors in top
80% style
Primary analysis
SKU Rationalization
8. Trade Promotion Optimization (TPO) uses advanced
econometric modeling techniques to help
manufacturers refine their trade promotion strategies.
The optimizer measures the impact of the various
sales promotions across channels , categories and
helps the sales team reallocate the promotional
spends to maximize the sales lift from promotions.
The model below was used to optimize the trade
spends of a large CPG company.
5 step framework for optimizing trade budgets
Simulator used to re-allocate trade spends across brands and activities
• The simulator was used
by the sales operations
team to allocate/ decide
promotions across
channels and categories
• The simulator could be
used to predict the
business impact of the
various trade
promotions
• The simulator could also
be used to decide
promotional slabs to
achieve a desired
volume
Benefits to the Business
Trade Promotion Optimization
9. Week1
Week2
Week3
Week4
Week5
Week6
Week7
Week8
Week9
Week10
Week11
Week12
Week13
Week14
Week15
Week16
Week17
Week18
Week19
Week21
Week22
Week23
Week24
Week25
Volume decomposed by media and base volume
Magazines are gaining importance in driving incremental sales
Market mix modeling is a predictive modeling
technique used to understand the impact of various
marketing vehicles in driving incremental sales. It is
then used to plan future marketing budget allocation
by optimizing spends while generating a higher ROI.
The case study below is for a leading manufacturer in
the anti-ageing category. The analysis indicated that
sales loss was because of internal cannibalization and
could have been arrested if the media spends on
magazine was not reduce d
Volume,‘000units
Mediaspend,‘000US$
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Baseline sales Magazine incr. sales TV incr. sales Daily incr. sales
Magazine spend TV spend Dailies spend
1.58%
-0.30%
-2.47%
-1.88%
2.78%
-6.23%
-6.51%
-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00%
Incremental
Drivers
-1.18%
Base
Drivers
-5.33%
Cannibalization by new product
There is one point increase in
Wtd. distribution
Marginal increase in avg. price
36% Decrease in spends
24% Decrease in spends
42% Increase in spends
Total volume change
Wtd. distribution
Magazine
Brand Y product launch
Base price
Daily
TV
Brand X source of sales decline 2011 vs. 2010
• Brand Y launch has cannibalized Brand X volumes
• The decline could have been restricted if the magazine spends was not reduced
Market Mix Modeling
10. Marketelligent provides data analytics based
consulting and outsourcing services that help you
make smarter business decisions. The firm is backed
by senior professionals with experience across
Consumer focused industries - Retail Banking,
Consumer Packaged Goods, Retail, Telecom and
Media. We offer an affordable global delivery model
leveraging the best of domain expertise and analytic
capabilities.
Reporting and Dashboard Custom Analysis Modeling
• Sales and Market Share tracking
• KPI reporting
• Category / Channel Trends
• Web based dashboards
• Market Structure Analysis
• Meta analysis / Data Integration
• Global opportunity mapping
• Marketing Mix Optimization
• Trade Spend Optimization
• Structural Equation Modeling
• Pricing analytics
• Sales forecasting
Offerings in CPG Analytics :
MANAGEMENT TEAM
GLOBAL EXPERIENCE.
PROVEN RESULTS.
Roy K. Cherian
CEO
Roy has over 20 years of rich experience in marketing, advertising and media
in organizations like Nestle India, United Breweries, FCB and Feedback
Ventures. He holds an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad.
Anunay Gupta, PhD
COO & Head of Analytics
Anunay has over 15 years of experience, with a significant portion focused
on Analytics in Consumer Finance. In his last assignment at Citigroup, he was
responsible for all Decision Management functions for the US Cards
portfolio of Citigroup, covering approx $150B in assets. Anunay holds an
MBA in Finance from NYU Stern School of Business.
Greg Ferdinand
EVP, Business Development
Greg has over 20 years of experience in global marketing, strategic planning,
business development and analytics at Dell, Capital One and AT&T. He has
successfully developed and embedded analytic-driven programs into a
variety of go-to-market, customer and operational functions. Greg holds an
MBA from NYU Stern School of Business
Kakul Paul
Business Head, CPG
Kakul has over 8 years of experience within the CPG industry. She was
previously part of the Analytics practice as WNS, leading analytic initiatives
for top Fortune 50 clients globally. She has extensive experience in what
drives Consumer purchase behavior, market mix modeling, pricing &
promotion analytics, etc. Kakul has an MBA from IIM Ahmedabad.
MARKETELLIGENT, INC.
80 Broad Street, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10004
1.212.837.7827 (o) 1.208.439.5551 (fax) info@marketelligent.com
CONTACT www.marketelligent.com
About Marketelligent
