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2 global idmp overview stefanski

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2 global idmp overview stefanski

  1. 1. 1 World Meteorological Organization United Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water resources and related environmental issues. 191 Members from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) – Newest Member South Sudan (Dec 2012) 10 major scientific & technical programmes (Secretariat) 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide activities of programmes (Experts) 6 Regional Associations involved in implementation
  2. 2. Integrated Drought Management Programme - Background Launched by WMO and GWP in 2013 at High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies (HMNDP) to support implementation of the HMNDP outcomes [Excerpt of HMNDP final declaration, emphasis added] • Develop proactive drought impact mitigation, preventive and planning measures, risk management, fostering of science, appropriate technology and innovation, public outreach and resource management as key elements of effective national drought policy • Promote greater collaboration to enhance the quality of local/national/regional/global observation networks and delivery systems • Improve public awareness of drought risk and preparedness for drought • Consider, where possible [...]risk reduction, risk sharing and risk transfer tools in drought management plans • Link drought management plans to local/national development policies
  3. 3. Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Distribution of (a) number of reported disasters, (b) reported deaths and (c) reported economic losses (1970–2012) (a) (b) (c) Global 44% 6% 35% 6% 5% 4% Total = 8 835 disasters (1970−2012) 14% 2% 41% 35% 9% Total = 1 944 653 deaths (1970−2012) 34% 52% 8% 4% 3% Total = US$ 2 390.7 billion (1970−2012) (in US$ billion, adjusted to 2012)
  4. 4. 1971−1980 1981−1990 1991−2000 2001−2010 Number of reported deaths by decade by hazard type (1971−2010) 241 748 658 905 329 597 387 957 0 200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main Global Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123
  5. 5. MainWMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123 Regional Intercomparisons AFR SAM NCA PAC EURASIA
  6. 6.  Proactive rather than Reactive  Horizontal Integration  Vertical Integration  Knowledge Sharing  Demonstration Projects  Develop Capacities Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) - Approach
  7. 7. The Cycle of Disaster Management Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
  8. 8. Organization that confirmed their interest to participate in IDMP (Status November 2014) •Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) •United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) •Australian Bureau of Meteorology •Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) •International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) •International Commission for Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) •International Water Management Institute (IWMI) •Joint Research Centre (JRC) •Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA) •Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) •U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) •UNDP Cap-Net •United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP) •United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) •United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) •United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) •University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for Food Institute •University of Southern Queensland •UN-Water Decade Programme on Capacity Development •World Bank
  9. 9. 10 IDMP is part of the Global Framework for Climate Services GFCS Goal: ◦ Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. GFCS Priority Areas: ◦ Agriculture; Disaster risk reduction; Water; Health
  10. 10. IDMP at the Regional and National Level www.droughtmanagement.info/idmp-activities/
  11. 11. IDMP Regional Programmes and Initiatives Support action and implementation on the ground, adding to existing efforts the strength of IDMP and its partners Central and Eastern Europe (2013): Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine Horn of Africa (2014): Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. West Africa (2014): First in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, and then share lessons learned with other neighbouring countries through the WMO partners, GWP Country Water Partnerships and other partners. South Asia Drought Monitoring System (2014) with IWMI in Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Central America (2013) Regional workshop leading to training on SPI and assessment of current drought. South America (tbc 2015) Regional workshop in Bolivia potentially leading to follow-up activities with partners.
  12. 12. IDMP National Initiatives - PRONACOSE Mexico: National Program against Drought (PRONACOSE) slated to run for the next 6 years in Mexico’s 26 basin councils. IDMP will provide technical advice, capacity building, project management and links to international expertise and platforms. Work Programme has been developed as part of the WMO/CONAGUA PREMIA project. - Support to Turkish Government: In line with the recommendations of the High- Level Meeting on National Drought Policy held in March 2013, the Government of Turkey through the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) started a process to formulate a national policy on drought management. IDMP was requested to provide guidance and international expertise to this process and is contributing with technical guidance and experiences from the Mexican PRONACOSE and the IDMP Central and Eastern Europe.
  13. 13. Framework of IDMP work on Drought Policies: National Drought Management Policy Guidelines • Adapting of 10-step process by Don Wilhite (National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln) • Response to need articulated at High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) • Template that can be adapted to national realities and needs • Building on existing risk management capacities
  14. 14. Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project To improve forecast skill and understanding on the sub- seasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high- impact weather events To promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services
  15. 15. Sub-Seasonal forecasts of precipitation 18
  16. 16. Operational Extended-range forecasts are improving!
  17. 17. Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts 3 weeks behind real-time Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree) Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture/temperature Archived in GRIB2 – NETCDF conversion available Database to open in early 2015, initially with 3 models (ECMWF, NCEP and JMA) www.s2sprediction.net S2S Database Description
  18. 18. For further information please visit www.droughtmanagement.info idmp@wmo.int