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مشاريع صغيرة ناجحة في السعودية - نادي المشاريع الصغيرة
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  1. 1. 47/1201 148 Technical and Economic feasibility study of producing chicken meat project in the province of Anbar . / )٤٠٨( )300( . . )2،7()31(% )35،6(%)25(% )10_50(% . Abstract Poultry meat is the best alternative to red meat, the volume of demand has increased due to population increase and improve the level of income and relatively high prices of red meat, but that domestic production is unable to meet the increasing demand, forcing the state to allow for importing a large quantities of these goods, the annual demand rate for this commodity has been estimated for the next five years up to (408000) tons per year and estimated the size of the gap between expected consumption and domestic production is expected only (300000) tons per year, which requires increased investments in this area to ensure the needs of citizens of the local production instead of importing them from abroad . therefore , we have conducted a study of technical and economic feasibility for a project in the production of poultry meat to be placed in the hands of farmers and investors to take advantage of them and encourage them to invest in this area. I have shown the evaluation criteria from the standpoints of business profitability and profitability of national feasibility of investment and the weakness of the risk, it reached the payback period (2,7) years, and the simple rate of return is (31%) and internal rate of return (35.6%) and social rate of return is (25%) and sensitivity analysis showed that the degree of risk is weak , since increasing the values of the factors affecting the project by the (10-50%) or decline the same percentage does not
  2. 2. 47/1201 149 have a great impact ,so that the evaluation criteria and in particular the net present value of the project to be a negative value , which indicates that the projects produce white meat has high profitability and low risk , and this project is very important and we should encourage to investment in it. : . . . . : : 1()2016 – 2012. ( 2( . : . . : : .
  3. 3. 47/1201 150 .)2009:27( .)1978:63( . ).( )( . : /: )) .(()2009:59.( : 1. . 2.. 3.. 4. . 5.. : 1(: . .
  4. 4. 47/1201 151 . . 2() :1996:100( )(. . . 3(: : .: Y = a + bxi : Y=)( X=)( a= B= )Y()X(ab : a = b = )Y() :2004:28( Y = a + b ( t - t- ) T=. T- =. :)Y( )X.( : Y = a + bx )a()B(: B = a = Y- - bx- x- =xY- =Y y∑ n yx∑ X-2 ∑ x y) - ∑x ∑y∑n ( X2 i) – (∑x)2 ∑n (
  5. 5. 47/1201 152 :) :2005:102( r = ( n √ - 1 ) x 100 :: ) .:101( ) ::2008:63( 1.. 2.. 3.. 4.).( 5.. 6.. 7. )(. :: ).( )(. .... )( )(. :: . )1993:282.( .)( : 1.. P 1 P 0
  6. 6. 47/1201 153 2.. 3.. 4.. 5.. ).( . : 1.. 2.. 3.. 1(: : ()pp(Pay Back period ) .2002:170(: = =+. ) .petty,2002,274( ()SRR(Rate of ReturnSimple )2006: 179( =×100 . ‫م‬.‫ي‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ر‬ ‫ﺱ‬ ‫ا‬ .
  7. 7. 47/1201 154 ()NPV(Net Present Value . )()( )NPV) .(Defusco,2004:29( : OK=NPV :CF r n . ()IRR(Internal Rate of Return ) 2009:54( . :)Ayyub, 2003:343( IRR = r1 + : IRR r 1 r 2 NPV1 NPV2 (/)BCR( . . BcR = CFn (1+ r)n n t = o (r 2 – r 1) NPV1 (NPV1 – NPV2) Pv (cost) PV (benefit)
  8. 8. 47/1201 155 2(: )(: . . : : : . . .)2008:144( : . ) :2008:146( = ):( : ):( . : =
  9. 9. 47/1201 156 : : = : ().( (. : : =NSAVP RS )SR(Social Return : SR = 3(: : )2003:296( .: = . :) :Brigham, 1986:479( = (1+ Rs)n NSAV NSAVP – WPV K –
  10. 10. 47/1201 157 =– : =×100 (: ) ()NPVIRR.( ).Couper j,2003:157( ) ::219.( )S1(= . .)19(%)17(% )18.7) .(%1984:29.( . . .
  11. 11. 47/1201 158 )75( : /: : 1.3% . 2.. 3.. 4. . . : 110/ 216/ 36/ 49/ ) :205( . 1981)2,1.( . : 1(. 2(. 1:
  12. 12. 47/1201 159 )1998 – 1981(11 )1( )2016 – 2012()2.( : 2012378000 2013387000 2014396000 2015404000 2016413000 )300000( )3000( )100(. )1( )1()2()3()4( )( )5( 1981215741366914116 19822821781411510420 1983205129145867614 1984223184150773915 1985249190155855916 1986235198161103715 1987259201163355816 1988255210168824515 1989326260174266619 1990246170178907614 199115112184191398 199214128189491137 199314126194781157 19941257200071186 19951519205361427 1996142-21124-7 199741-22046-2 199845-22702-2 11/ :1(2-1362 2()3(2009
  13. 13. 47/1201 160 3(5-4. 4()1998 – 1996( )2(1999–2016 )1( )2()3()4( 19992338281.2257.2176.0 20002408699.4265165.6 200124813120.3273152.7 200225565168.0281113.0 20032634074.2290215.8 20042713964.7299234.3 20052796394.3307212.7 200628810112.4317204.6 20072968294.7326231.3 20083189584.8351266.2 20093210585.2353267.8 20103283185.6361275.4 20113361986.03370283.9 20123440686.46378291.5 20133519386.9387300.1 20143598187.3396308.7 20153676887.7404316.3 20163755688.1413324.9 1(2016 – 2010 Y = 23382 +787.43X. 2(111998 – 1981 2016 – 1999. 3(2016 – 2009 r = ( n √ - 1 ) x 100 2(: ) :1999:122( 1.. 2.. ) .:28( P 1 P 0
  14. 14. 47/1201 161 : 1)2016 – 2010( : Y = a + bt : Y = 38305.73 + 2767.029 t 2)2016 – 2010(: Y = 23382 + 787.43 t 3)2016 – 2010( : Y = 248.7926 + 0.000674 X1 + 0.003139 X2 : X1= X2= )3.( )3()2016 – 2012( 19994177123382331 20004235824086337 20014333524816343 20024034425565348 20032699026340354 20044160727139360 20054343827963365 20064785128810370 20074804629682377 20085000031895382 20095700032105388 20105767532831391 20116044233619395 20126320934406399 20136597635139404 20146874335981408 20157151036768412 20167427737556417
  15. 15. 47/1201 162 . /: 1(: – .. 2(: )50()1.5( )4( )4( 6% 1/1–12/242100006009400 1/3–12/442100006009400 1/5–12/642100006009400 1/9–12/1042100006009400 1/11–12/1242100006009400 50000300047000 3(: 10002 10000 . )5( 1)0.40×0.50×220(4433000132 2 )0.50×0.50×220( 5531500008250 3 )0.40×220( 180310000018000 4661303550007150
  16. 16. 47/1201 163 5 1:2:3 64340000025600 6 )1×1.2( 351250004375 72×343000001200 84_125 9100023000030000 10 )220×2( 4402120005280 11100021500015000 121002200002000 13__2000 14__1000 120112 : 4(: 2002 1002 )50K.VA. : 1750750 21231501800 35831005800 4 )1×2( 3175525 5)1×3(5175875 6)60×80(2510
  17. 17. 47/1201 164 71835009000 82502153750 91802152700 10802201600 11)3×4(27502750 1213 81251000 30560 5(: : 1750000750000 2123 1500001800000 3583 1000005800000 4 )1×2( 3175000525000 5)1×2(5175000875000 6)60×80(250000100000 7 1:2:4 183 5000009000000 82502 150003750000 91802 150002700000 10 1:2:4 802 200001600000 1113 2125000250000 12100000100000 13250000100000 1418000080000 1525000001000000 1620000002000000
  18. 18. 47/1201 165 30430000 6(: : 113500 215000 3K.V.A5016500 43003000 5300600 610006 7101000 8102000 952500 10202000 32100 7(: : .: )12(: *1 *1 *1 *2 *2 *2 .):( )50()10( )40( )750(.
  19. 19. 47/1201 166 .: )4( ) .1983:80( )10()40( )200( )120(. )60–75(%. )1999:189.( .: )6()300( . .: )810( ) .1987:313( .: )30(. )6300(/.. 30*42*5=6300 . 34 . :: 1.: )212602( )6(.
  20. 20. 47/1201 167 )6( 1181102 223000 35500 43000 212602 2.: : (: )7( 118009600 215006000 316007200 4250012000 523508400 623007200 50400 (: )4(. : 4×50000=200 =600 : 200×600=120000/. (:)8(:
  21. 21. 47/1201 168 )8()( 11811025%9055 22300010%2300 3550020%1100 4300020%600 13055 ():( )10000()50000( )40000()6(% )750(. (: )6300(. )9( )9()( 1300002040050400300002040050400 21200001200009700097000 33500350028002800 4)(37500375003000030000 5)(1000100010001000 65200520046004600 71004001500110012001300 8200200200200 9800800800800 1013055130551305513055 4515518800023315545155156000201155
  22. 22. 47/1201 169 3(: : 160004700028200038000228000 2 25000064160005012400 298000240400 : 1(: : 16484539245 22.74.0 331%18% 4282447125142 535.6%22.8% 61.21.1 )NPV( )IRR( . )4-1(.
  23. 23. 47/1201 170 2(: )( : 1673417528752 20.250.18 30.760.69 45.554.44 . . . . 3(: ) .( : .. .. .: : = ==30103 ==62.7% – 45155 4.5 – 6 30103 48000
  24. 24. 47/1201 171 =48000–30103=17897 ==37.3% . .: )NPV.( )50 – 10%()NPV.( : 50%530060176146390067188881 40%480550197406372392205204 30%431039218666353131222705 20%381528239927331772241224 10%332017261187308240261118 0%282447282447282447282447 10-%232995303707235965305225 20-%183486324967202935329793 30-%133974346228166538356089 40-%84463367488126575384468 50-%3495238874882639415049 : = : 17897 48000 _ +
  25. 25. 47/1201 172 11.75 20.75 31.4 40.69 )NPV( 50 – 10%. . : 1( . 2( )2016 – 2012()400( . 3( . : 1( . 2( . 3( .
  26. 26. 47/1201 173 : 1(2006– . 2(2007 . 3(19992 . 4(2004 . 5(1999. 6(1978 . 7(1999. 8(2009 . 9(1987 21. 10(1984 2534. 11(2009. 12(1996 . 13( . 14(2005 . 15(1983 1224. 16(1993. 17(2003 .
  27. 27. 47/1201 174 18(1986. 19(2008. 20(2002. 21()1979( . : 1- Ayyub B.M.( 2003),Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Chapmpan and Hall /CRC, Florida, USA. 2- Brigham. Eugene F. ( 1986 ) , Fundamentals of Financial Management ,Fourth Edition. 3- Couper J. (2003 ) .process Engineering Economics, Marcel Dekker Inc, New York . USA. 4- Dofasco R. ( 2004 ) , Quantitative methods for Investment Analysis ,CFA , Institute, USA. 5- Petty and others , ( 2002 ) Fnancial management Principles and Applications , Ninth Edtion , Prentice Hall , USA.
  28. 28. 47/1201 175 )1( )( 10% 002126021.0-212602 12980002201000.909270882200071 22980002201000.826246148181803 32980002201000.751223798165295 42980002201000.683203534150328 52980002201000.621185058136682 62980002201000.564168072124136 72980002201000.513152874112911 82980002201000.467139166102787 92980002201000.42412635293322 103405202201000.38613144084959 18473251564896 )2( )( 002126021.00212602 12404001881000.909218524170983 22404001881000.826198570155371 32404001881000.751180540141263 42404001881000.683164193128472 52404001881000.621149288116810 62404001881000.564135586106088 72404001881000.51312332596495 82404001881000.46711226787843 92404001881000.42410193079754 102829201881000.38610920772607 14934301368288
  29. 29. 47/1201 176 )3( 10%36% 10%36% 0(212602)1.01.0(212602)(212602) 1779000.9090.7357081157257 2779000.8260.5416434542140 3779000.7510.3975850330926 4779000.6830.2925320622747 5779000.6210.2154837616749 6779000.5640.1584393612308 7779000.5130.116399639036 8779000.4670.085363976622 9779000.4240.063330304908 101204200.3860.046464825539 NPV282447(4370) )4( )(IRR= % 35.6 10%25% 10%25% 0(212602)1.01.0(212602)(212602) 1523000.9090.8004754141840 2523000.8260.6404320033472 3523000.7510.5123927726778 4523000.6830.4093572121391 5523000.6210.3273247817102 6523000.5640.2622949713703 7523000.5130.2102683010983 8523000.4670.168244248786 9523000.4240.134221757008 10948200.3860.1073660110145 125142(21394)
  30. 30. 47/1201 177 )5( )()(12% 1116745504000.89310425345007 2116745504000.7979304640169 3116745504000.7128312235885 4116745504000.6367425032054 5116745504000.5676619428577 6116745504000.5075919025553 7116745504000.4525276922781 8116745504000.4044716520362 9116745504000.3614214518194 10159265504000.3225128316229 673417284811 )6( )( )()(12% 191145504000.8938139245007 291145504000.7977264340169 391145504000.7126489535885 491145504000.6365796832054 591145504000.5675167928577 691145504000.5074621125553 791145504000.4524119822781 891145504000.4043682320362 991145504000.3613290318194 10133665504000.3224304016229 528752284811
  31. 31. 47/1201 178 )7( )( 10% 002126021.00212602 11920002201000.909174528200071 21920002201000.826158592181803 31920002201000.751144192165295 41920002201000.683131136150328 51920002201000.621119232136682 61920002201000.564108288124136 71920002201000.51398496112911 81920002201000.46789664102787 91920002201000.4248140893322 101920002201000.3867411284959 11796481564896 )8( )( 10% 002126021.00212602 11536001881000.909139622170983 21536001881000.826126874155371 31536001881000.751115354141263 41536001881000.683104909128472 51536001881000.62195386116810 61536001881000.56486630106088 71536001881000.5137879796495 81536001881000.4677173187843 91536001881000.4246512679754 101536001881000.3865929072607 9437191368288
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