INEVITABLETHE NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY IS THAT MOST OF ITS FORCES ARE INEVTABLE.WE CAN SHAPE TECHNOLOGY - BUT WE CAN’T STOP IT.
Thrusday 22nd February 2018

a“If we think about the dependency we have on this
other technology, called the alphabet, and writing,
we are totally dependent, it has transformed culture.
We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet
and writing.” - Kevin Kelly

“A REVOLUTION
DOESN’T HAPPEN
WHEN SOCIETYADOPTS
NEWTOOLS IT HAPPENS
WHEN SOCIETYADOPTS
NEW BEHAVIORS.”
THE FUTURE IS ONLY COMPLEX IF WE
FAIL TO SEE IT FROM THE POINT OF VIEW
OF WHAT IS DRIVING THE CHANGE.
- CLAY SHIRKY, US NOW
HYPOTHESIS:

.growing complexity
PART 1
PART1A:GrowingComplexity
Image by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on flickr.com

MERCANTILE
CAPITALISM
Venetian merchants and
Dutch traders
PROPRIETARY
CAPITALISM
Factory and workshops of
the British Empire
MANAGERIAL
CAPITALISM
American modelled mass
consumption
DISTRIBUTED
CAPITALISM
Apple, Alphebeth,
Facebook, Amazon
2000 -190018001600-1700
THE CHANGING
«the specific kinds of business models and practices that create wealth in any given era»
CONTENT OF CAPITALISM
CONTENT =
- Shoshana Zuboff -

Every century or so,
fundamental changes in the
nature of consumption create
new demand patterns that
existing enterprises can’t
meet.
- Shoshana Zuboff -

«PEOPLE HAVE CHANGED
MORE THAN THE BUSINESS
ORGANIZATIONS THEY
MUST DEPEND UPON FOR
CONSUMPTION AND FOR
EMPLOYMENT»- Shoshana Zuboff

EARLY CONSUMERS
PROPRIETARY CAPITALISM
MASS CONSUMERS
MANAGERIAL CAPITALISM
NEW SOCIETY OF INDIVIDUALS
DISTRIBUTED CAPITALISM
ZONE OF
INNOVATION
1890 2005
1915 2020
2050
ZONE OF
INNOVATION
MIGRATION
PATH
MIGRATION
PATH
ZONE OF
MUTATION
ZONE OF
MUTATION
ELECTRICITY
INTERNET
MOBILE
BIG DATA
IOT
CLOUD
+
+
COMBUSTION ENGINE
Zero marginal cost
Photo by adrian on Unsplash
- SHOSHANA ZUBOFF -
THE PREMIUM PUZZLE

IDENTITY“They built a boat to put my life on, then
they gave me a crew and made me the
captain and told me i could sail
wherever i want.”
Photo by Siddharth Bhogra on Unsplash - Shoshana Zuboff
#1

http://www.180360720.no/?p=5227
We are living in the age of mass individualization. No
two people get the same Google search result, see
the same products on amazon.com, have the same
Facebook feed or iTunes catalogue. Every smartphone
is unique two minutes after its first boot.
We are living in an age where the new mega industries have all become personal services industries and the old
incumbents are still struggling to put out a mass product at almost no margin or cost (e.g. digital news media, insurance,
banks, bikes, cars, tooth picks etc.).
INDIVIDUALIZATION#2

mass
standardization
identity
individualization
from:
to:
«the specific kinds of business models and practices that create wealth in any given era» - Shoshana Zuboff
CHAPTERS OF CAPITALISM
increases the willingness to pay a premium
unleashes new markets and wealth

discuss:
Is there a premium puzzle in our
industry? What is it?
In pairs of two for three minutes:

PEOPLE ORGANIZE IN MULTIPLE
IMMEDIATE, DECENTRALIZED
NETWORKS. Lasting from seconds
to months or years. These networks
are distributed, they don’t have a
plan and only react when input hits
them.
#3
“They are by their very nature unpredictable. They react to input variables as
opposed to a predictable system, … a distributed network doesn’t know
what it’s going to do until input hits it. And when you [the company] are the
input variable…”
- Chris Fussell, McChrystal Group

#4 MUTATION IS THE CONVERGENCE OF INDUSTRIES
INDUSTRY IS NOTHING MORE THAN A MENTAL CONCEPT SUFFOCATING THE IMAGINATION OF ORGANIZATIONS

«TO GET THE BEST POSSIBLE
OUTCOME FROM WHAT WE PUT IN»
Farmers get up every morning because they have a job to solve:

EARLY CONSUMERS
PROPRIETARY CAPITALISM
MASS CONSUMERS
MANAGERIAL CAPITALISM
NEW SOCIETY OF INDIVIDUALS
DISTRIBUTED CAPITALISM
ZONE OF
INNOVATION
1890 2005
1915 2020
2050
ZONE OF
INNOVATION
MIGRATION
PATH
MIGRATION
PATH
ZONE OF
MUTATION
ZONE OF
MUTATION
ELECTRICITY
INTERNET
MOBILE
BIG DATA
IOT
CLOUD
+
+
COMBUSTION ENGINE
Zero marginal cost
- SHOSHANA ZUBOFF -
Historically, mutations have superseded innovations when fundamental shifts in what people want require a new approach to enterprise: new
purposes, new methods, new outcomes.
INNOVATIONS IMPROVE THE FRAMEWORK
IN WHICH ENTERPRISES PRODUCE AND
DELIVER GOODS AND SERVICES.
MUTATIONS CREATE NEW FRAMEWORKS;
THEY ARE NOT SIMPLY NEW TECHNOLOGIES,
THOUGH THEY DO LEVERAGE
TECHNOLOGIES TO DO NEW THINGS.
A MUTATION IN CAPITALISM ITSELF

discuss:
Is the industry challenged by
innovation or mutation?
In pairs of two for three minutes:

ARE WE PREPARED FOR THIS?

«CUSTOMERS ARE DEVELOPING NEW
DEMAND PATTERNS OUR CURRENT
BUSINESS ORGANIZATIONS CAN’T MEET»- Shoshana Zuboff
15/365 - 2017
VALUE
What customers find valuable
to pay for is changing. We are
moving away from being able
to charge a premium for
access and simplicity. Now the
premium is for identity. And
individualization of services is
opening massive new markets.
NETWORKS
People organize in multiple
immediate networks, lasting from
seconds to months or years. These
networks are distributed, they
don’t have a plan and only react
when input hits them. Companies
provide input variables.
MUTATION
Technology is changing
consumer behavior due to a
mutation of processes
(e.g. SMS and payments
become the same process)

FREEDOM OF CHOICE:
THE FUTURE IS ONLY COMPLICATED IF YOU FAILTO SEE IT FROM WHAT IS DRIVING THE CHANGE
CHOICE:NO REAL CHOICE: CHOICE:NO REAL CHOICE:
THE PRODUCT IS JUSTATEMPORARY OUTPUT
THERE IS NO SUSTAINABLE ADVANTAGE
STUCK ON THEIR CORE BUSINESS MODELS
WHEN THE CORE TECHNOLOGY BECOMES STRETCHABLE
- GARY HAMEL -
- RITA MCGRATH -
- CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN -

Competition will be asynchronous -
your worst competition is not
necessarily another pharma company
MUTATION:

“Let me give you an example of how
expensive that can be. A decade ago four
of the most powerful technology
companies in the world were Intel, Dell,
HP and Microsoft. And yet all four of
them completely missed the single biggest
shift in the generation in their industry.
And that was the shift to wireless. The
mobile opportunity was not an existential
threat to their core business.”
- Gary Hamel
CORE TECHNOLOGY & BUSINESS MODEL

COMPANIES DON’T DIE THEY SUFFOCATE

WHEN AN INDUSTRY
BREAKS WE REALIZE
THAT CUSTOMERS’
OPPORTUNITIES
ARE NOT BOUNDED
TO INDUSTRY OR
LIMITED TO
PROCESS — BUT
ENDLESS.
- HELGE TENNØ

What happens when
DATAbecomes as valuable to some customers as medication?
What happens when
ENGINEERINGbecomes as valuable to pharma as science?
TWO QUESTIONS?

THE FUTURE IS ONLY COMPLEX
IF WE FAIL TO SEE IT FROM THE
POINT OF VIEW OF WHAT IS DRIVING
THE CHANGE.
PART 2

Fuel + Hardware & OSGovernance, Management,Teams,Talent, Coordination, Strategy, Decisions etc.Data, Experience, Information, Insight

OUR IMAGINATION IS LIMITED BY THE TOOLS WE USE TO UNDERSTAND THE WORLD
PREMISE:

WE ARE USING OLD MODELS TO COLLECT NEW DATA ABOUTTHE WORLD - BUT BECAUSE WE ARE USING OLD
MODELS AND METHODS WE ARE ONLY PICKING OUR DATA FROM THE SAME POOLS OF EXPERIENCE AND
INFORMATION - SERVING US THE SAME PERSPECTIVE OF THE WORLD AS WE ARE USED TO SEEING

"In the old model things didn't change very fast, it was predictable and so you
built for predictability. It was like saying; 'go find this object in a well lit room’."
- Aaron Dignan -
A Well Lit Room
It used to be…

Dark Room
or
- Quote by Aaron Dignan -
A Well Lit Room
Are we in a

Companies are designed to
out!
customers
keep
VIA CHUCK COKER ON FLICKR.COM

COMPANIES CARE ABOUT
EFFICIENCY&
STANDARDIZATION

«Companies get fixed on measuring their solution, not
the job they’re being hired to help solve..»
- Des Traynor, CEO Intercom -
- https://blog.intercom.com/your-product-is-already-obsolete/

.OUTCOME
.EFFICIENCY
.RATIO
- Clayton Christensen -
PHOTO BY DANIEL LEONE ON UNSPLASH
COMPANIES SHYAWAY FROM CUSTOMER DATA BECAUSE IT’S TOO COMPLEX - ORGANIZATIONS ARE EFFICIENCY MACHINES
MEANING IF IT’S NOT MEASURABLE AND IT DOESN’T FIT INTO AN EXCEL SPREADSHEET CELLWE ARE NOT GOING TO USE IT

«Companies end up using
their data to fit customers
to their product, not the
other way around»
- Helge Tennø -
Unintentional consequence:
12/365 - 2017
26/365 - 2017
ILLUSTRATION BY PAT HAYES ON FLICKR.COM

A TAXleadership has to pay in order to argue
they were doing the right thing
old, slow, static formats, not distributed, not in a system of action, promotes einstellung,
avoids outliers, creative opinions and is infested with the Hawthorne effect.
Our imagination is taken hostage by our old code
The current insight industry is designed to fit customers to company’s problems to prove that what you are already doing is the right thing
SOURCE: HTTPS://OPENCLIPART.ORG/
Customer insights has become

New technology invites companies to find new processes
creating new behaviors for people
Slow moving societal change like
the increase in higher education,
standards of living, social
complexity and longevity etc.
changes people’s mind in regard
to what they find valuable
Not who the are but what
they are doing, and why
How we need to understand our customers
CUSTOMER GOALPROCESS BEHAVIOR
TECHNOLOGY
PROGRESS
STRUGGLE

PROGRESS
STRUGGLE
QUESTION
What is the future of your industry?
CUSTOMER GOALPROCESS BEHAVIOR
TECHNOLOGY

IOT + External Data + Behavioral data
We don’t know what this data will do to organizations
Exponential data volume + Machine learning
Sensors
Processing power
(Doubles every 12 months)
Data Volume
(Doubles every 18 months)
Systemix
Compexity
Big Data allows evidence-
based decision-making
SOURCE: DIGITAL GROWTH. SOURCE: DIRK HELBING
“Most of our future data won’t be our own” - IBM Watson

Photo by Josh Calabrese on Unsplash
NEW MODELS AND METHODOLOGIES THATARE ABLE TO FUELT H E N E W S Y S T E M - AT IT’S PACE
THE FORCES OF TECHNOLOGY ARE
INEVITABLEBUTTO UNDERSTAND THEIR IMPACTWE MUSTTRAIN OURSELVES THROUGH

Today companies need insight to make decisions that
challenge their assumptions, their core technology,
vector, processes and core business models.
Insight that challenge their customers own perception
of what they want.And in a format and through a system
that distributes this knowledge to every talent and team
empowering them to make their own decisions in their
interactions with the customer.
All in real-time
- Helge Tennø -
IT’S NOT A QUESTION OF TECHNOLOGY
THANKYOU