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Adios QE
24 Sept 2014
War Room
HiddenLevers War Room
Open Q + A
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Archived webinars
CE Credit
Idea Generation
Presentation deck
Product UpdatesScenario Updates
Market Update
Fed Hijinks Scenarios
Past Fed Action
QE MythBusters
Adios QE
HiddenLevers
MARKET UPDATE
Market Update
Syria Airstrikes
Manufacturing = 5y high
New Era for Chindia
sources: HiddenLevers, MarketWatch, BusinessWeek, Huff Post, Washington Post, Reuters
Gas = 3 bucks
Macro Snapshot
Jobless claims at 2006 levels
Are jobless claims signaling a peak? Commodities suffer despite industrial rebound
(hint: it’s the dollar) – meanwhile S&P is middle of the pack among global indices.
FED HIJINKS SCENARIOS
HiddenLevers
Review: End of QE Scenarios
Not Sure
Easy Money,
No Hangover
Good
Economy
Back on Track
Bad
Deflation
Strikes Back
WHAT REALLY
HAPPENED
66% priced in based
on SPX at 2200. This
becomes the GOOD
scenario now.
Scenario priced in
10y target = 3%
S&P target = 1900
10y = 2.54% headed
down. Commodities
in deflation, Equities
+ GDP not so much.
GOOD: Steady as She Goes
source: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Bloomberg, NY Times
Fed raises rates in mid-2015 as stated
EU rate cut
gives Fed
breathing room
US
manufacturing
hitting its stride
Fed has kept its
word on
2014 QE taper
Low inflation
means no need
for rate squeeze
Fed balance
sheet still
bloated
until 2020
BAD: Rate Hike Postponed
Weak economic
growth might
force Fed to
postpone
Equities caught
between easy
money and bad
growth
Poor global
growth +
deflation are
catalysts
Fed waits until 2016 due to economic malaise
source: HiddenLevers, NELP, New Yorker, MarketWatch
Rates continue
downward drift
of 2014
Yellen watching
labor market
like a hawk
UGLY: Fed Pops Bubble
Yellen said Fed is
prepared to use
rates to pop
bubbles
Low VIX and
corporate bond
spreads
worrisome
Worry is
more about junk
bonds than
equities
Failure of labor
market recovery
makes this
unlikely
sources: HiddenLevers, USA Today, NY Times, ThinkAdvisor, SeekingAlpha
QE withdrawal or pre-emptive rate hike backfires
Goldman thinks
impact begins
when taper ends
Acknowledged
that low rates
led to housing
bubble
Acknowledged
froth in
tech/biotech
sectors
Scenario: Fed Hijinks
Good
Steady as
She Goes
Bad
Rate Hike
Postponed
Ugly
Fed Pops
Bubble
If economic
recovery continues,
the Fed can stay the
course and the
present rally may
continue into 2015.
If poor economic
growth causes the
Fed to postpone
hikes, weak growth
and continued
easing might offset
each other.
Investor sentiment
might shift if the
Fed acts more
rapidly. Stocks,
bonds, and real
estate could suffer
in a bubble pop.
HiddenLevers
FED ACTION
$
2014 QE Wind Down Plan
Step 1
Remove last $15B of QE
next month
sources: Federal Reserve Releases, Yellen Conference Transcript
Key Takeaway
No Fed governor sees
rates reaching old 5%
levels … ever
Step 2
Rate hike mid 2015
(1.27% fed funds target)
Step 3
Normalize Fed Balance
Sheet “by end of decade”
Past Fed Action: Reaction
UGLY scenario:
Fed Pops bubble
Period Fed Funds Change
(bps)
S&P Change
(%)
12/65 – 12/66 +165 -12.2%
8/67 – 9/69 +540 -0.5%
4/71 – 9/71 +185 -9.35%
3/72 – 9/73 +749 -2.75%
3/74 – 9/74 +304 -32.39%
2/77 – 5/80 +1300 +11.44%
8/80 – 7/81 +1007 +0.34%
1/82 – 3/82 +241 -7.01%
3/83 – 9/84 +294 +8.97%
2/87 – 11/87 +133 -18.97%
4/88 – 4/89 +323 +18.49%
2/94 – 3/95 +300 +7.19%
4/97 – 5/97 +19 +10.46%
7/99 – 7/00 +174 +8.23%
6/04 – 8/06 + 425 +14.66%
S&P reaction
Max Drawdown:
-32.39%
Max Rise:
+18.49%
Average Change: -0.22%
source: Business Insider
similarities differences
Correct Analogue = Feb – Nov 1987
sources: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve, St. Louis Fed, Time Magazine
dramatic increase in program
trading, now called HFT
market spooked by interest
rate hike rumors (1984-85)
brand new fed chair in office
overvalued stock market (P/E)
Then - rates rising globally
Now – nope
Then - USD declining
Now – USD rising
Then - inflation concerns
Now - nope
Then - Fed Funds rate 7.3
Now – 0.0
P/E ratios
1987: 18
2014: 26
technical resistance
HiddenLevers
QE MYTHBUSTERS
QE Myth:USD is getting weaker
sources: HiddenLevers Charts
Despite a steady rise in the US money supply, the dollar is getting stronger. Falling
velocity of money means new money doesn’t cause deflation or devaluation.
Reality: USD is getting stronger
QE Myth: Rates are Rising
sources: HiddenLevers
QE 1
QE
2
QE 2.5
(Twist) +
QE3
Reality: Rates dropped Post-QE 1, 2 and in 2014
QE Myth: QE is Ending
sources: Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal
Info on ECB QE and Rates
Bank Deposit rates reduced to -0.1% in
June 2014.
Further cut to -0.2% in September
ECB new asset purchases will increase
balance sheet 700 B to 2.7 trillion Euros
ECB likely to expand QE
Info on BOJ QE program
First case of QE done by Japan to fight
deflation in early 2000s.
Recent QE began April 2013 and
expected to double money supply.
In addition to bonds, domestic ETFs also
purchased (1 B USD) beginning Aug 2014
Reality: QE outsourced to Japan + Europa
Adios QE – Recap
S&P rising + Lower rates
make an odd couple
INTEREST RATES ARE NOT RISING
1987 analogy is about rate cycle, not
just stock market crash
Global factors have given
Fed breathing room
HiddenLevers Use Cases
data center
10y/CPI/PMI
scenario
Global
Deflation
Adios QE
macro theme
Strong Dollar
scenario
Fed Action
Product Update
I just love
these guys
Dude,
check out that
new look
New site coming in early October

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Adios QE War Room Slides

  • 1. Adios QE 24 Sept 2014 War Room
  • 2. HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation deck Product UpdatesScenario Updates
  • 3. Market Update Fed Hijinks Scenarios Past Fed Action QE MythBusters Adios QE
  • 5. Market Update Syria Airstrikes Manufacturing = 5y high New Era for Chindia sources: HiddenLevers, MarketWatch, BusinessWeek, Huff Post, Washington Post, Reuters Gas = 3 bucks
  • 6. Macro Snapshot Jobless claims at 2006 levels Are jobless claims signaling a peak? Commodities suffer despite industrial rebound (hint: it’s the dollar) – meanwhile S&P is middle of the pack among global indices.
  • 8. Review: End of QE Scenarios Not Sure Easy Money, No Hangover Good Economy Back on Track Bad Deflation Strikes Back WHAT REALLY HAPPENED 66% priced in based on SPX at 2200. This becomes the GOOD scenario now. Scenario priced in 10y target = 3% S&P target = 1900 10y = 2.54% headed down. Commodities in deflation, Equities + GDP not so much.
  • 9. GOOD: Steady as She Goes source: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Bloomberg, NY Times Fed raises rates in mid-2015 as stated EU rate cut gives Fed breathing room US manufacturing hitting its stride Fed has kept its word on 2014 QE taper Low inflation means no need for rate squeeze Fed balance sheet still bloated until 2020
  • 10. BAD: Rate Hike Postponed Weak economic growth might force Fed to postpone Equities caught between easy money and bad growth Poor global growth + deflation are catalysts Fed waits until 2016 due to economic malaise source: HiddenLevers, NELP, New Yorker, MarketWatch Rates continue downward drift of 2014 Yellen watching labor market like a hawk
  • 11. UGLY: Fed Pops Bubble Yellen said Fed is prepared to use rates to pop bubbles Low VIX and corporate bond spreads worrisome Worry is more about junk bonds than equities Failure of labor market recovery makes this unlikely sources: HiddenLevers, USA Today, NY Times, ThinkAdvisor, SeekingAlpha QE withdrawal or pre-emptive rate hike backfires Goldman thinks impact begins when taper ends Acknowledged that low rates led to housing bubble Acknowledged froth in tech/biotech sectors
  • 12. Scenario: Fed Hijinks Good Steady as She Goes Bad Rate Hike Postponed Ugly Fed Pops Bubble If economic recovery continues, the Fed can stay the course and the present rally may continue into 2015. If poor economic growth causes the Fed to postpone hikes, weak growth and continued easing might offset each other. Investor sentiment might shift if the Fed acts more rapidly. Stocks, bonds, and real estate could suffer in a bubble pop.
  • 14. 2014 QE Wind Down Plan Step 1 Remove last $15B of QE next month sources: Federal Reserve Releases, Yellen Conference Transcript Key Takeaway No Fed governor sees rates reaching old 5% levels … ever Step 2 Rate hike mid 2015 (1.27% fed funds target) Step 3 Normalize Fed Balance Sheet “by end of decade”
  • 15. Past Fed Action: Reaction UGLY scenario: Fed Pops bubble Period Fed Funds Change (bps) S&P Change (%) 12/65 – 12/66 +165 -12.2% 8/67 – 9/69 +540 -0.5% 4/71 – 9/71 +185 -9.35% 3/72 – 9/73 +749 -2.75% 3/74 – 9/74 +304 -32.39% 2/77 – 5/80 +1300 +11.44% 8/80 – 7/81 +1007 +0.34% 1/82 – 3/82 +241 -7.01% 3/83 – 9/84 +294 +8.97% 2/87 – 11/87 +133 -18.97% 4/88 – 4/89 +323 +18.49% 2/94 – 3/95 +300 +7.19% 4/97 – 5/97 +19 +10.46% 7/99 – 7/00 +174 +8.23% 6/04 – 8/06 + 425 +14.66% S&P reaction Max Drawdown: -32.39% Max Rise: +18.49% Average Change: -0.22% source: Business Insider
  • 16. similarities differences Correct Analogue = Feb – Nov 1987 sources: HiddenLevers, Federal Reserve, St. Louis Fed, Time Magazine dramatic increase in program trading, now called HFT market spooked by interest rate hike rumors (1984-85) brand new fed chair in office overvalued stock market (P/E) Then - rates rising globally Now – nope Then - USD declining Now – USD rising Then - inflation concerns Now - nope Then - Fed Funds rate 7.3 Now – 0.0 P/E ratios 1987: 18 2014: 26 technical resistance
  • 18. QE Myth:USD is getting weaker sources: HiddenLevers Charts Despite a steady rise in the US money supply, the dollar is getting stronger. Falling velocity of money means new money doesn’t cause deflation or devaluation. Reality: USD is getting stronger
  • 19. QE Myth: Rates are Rising sources: HiddenLevers QE 1 QE 2 QE 2.5 (Twist) + QE3 Reality: Rates dropped Post-QE 1, 2 and in 2014
  • 20. QE Myth: QE is Ending sources: Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal Info on ECB QE and Rates Bank Deposit rates reduced to -0.1% in June 2014. Further cut to -0.2% in September ECB new asset purchases will increase balance sheet 700 B to 2.7 trillion Euros ECB likely to expand QE Info on BOJ QE program First case of QE done by Japan to fight deflation in early 2000s. Recent QE began April 2013 and expected to double money supply. In addition to bonds, domestic ETFs also purchased (1 B USD) beginning Aug 2014 Reality: QE outsourced to Japan + Europa
  • 21. Adios QE – Recap S&P rising + Lower rates make an odd couple INTEREST RATES ARE NOT RISING 1987 analogy is about rate cycle, not just stock market crash Global factors have given Fed breathing room
  • 22. HiddenLevers Use Cases data center 10y/CPI/PMI scenario Global Deflation Adios QE macro theme Strong Dollar scenario Fed Action
  • 23. Product Update I just love these guys Dude, check out that new look New site coming in early October