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End of inflation webinar slides

HL inflation webinar

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End of inflation webinar slides

  1. 1. The End of Inflation? 30 September 2015 War Room
  2. 2. HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation deck Product UpdatesScenario Updates
  3. 3. Market Update Inflation Trends: US vs World Deflation Risk Factors + Impact on Fed Scenarios: End of Inflation The End of Inflation?
  4. 4. HiddenLevers MARKET UPDATE
  5. 5. No Rate Hike = Fed Losing Credibility Market Update sources: HiddenLevers, Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, CNN Money, NY Times, Forbes, 1 Goldman says 20usd Oil – Seriously? Biotech Bubble Bursting spring 2008 goose egg 2 3
  6. 6. BRICS Divergence due to Oil Crash 4 sources: HiddenLevers 1 2 CURRENCIES MARKETS M B I C I C B R
  7. 7. Hello Rate Hike: HiddenLevers quite helpful Research + Content + Functionality
  9. 9. INFLATION TRENDS: USA sources: Advisor Perspectives, HiddenLevers PCE personal consumption (Fed’s Inflation Measure) CPI conventional inflation metric Both below 2% target. CPI fell to 0.0% in 2015 (includes Food + Energy)
  10. 10. INFLATION TRENDS: USA FALLING INCOMES sources: FiveThirtyEight Why do Americans feel poor? Inflation – NO Falling Wages - YES
  11. 11. INFLATION TRENDS: EMERGING MARKETS sources: Trading Economics China: 2% Inflation. Reverting Recent Fall India: 4% Now Falling
  12. 12. INFLATION TRENDS: Japan sources: Trading Economics Japan QE Japan’s 0% Returns Deflation Posterchild 0 0
  13. 13. INFLATION TRENDS: EUROPE sources: Trading Economics 0 0 Euro Area: 2000s 2% Stability Now: 0%
  15. 15. RISK FACTOR 1: Baby Bust + Consumer Shift source: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Huffington Post, Time Magazine Largest Generation Aging + Birthrates Slowing more whites dying than being born sharing economy for all Latino birthrate decreasing youth buys experiences not stuff
  16. 16. RISK FACTOR 2: Robot Takeover reduces commodities demand Technology + Automation render humans jobless source: HiddenLevers, Forbes, Business Insider, Zero Hedge more jobs eliminated than created professional services now under attack less jobs = less consumption tech only gets cheaper
  17. 17. RISK FACTOR 3: Commodities Perfect Storm bumper crops last two years source: HiddenLevers, EIA, DOT, Business Insider, less China demand for metals Crude Oil + Food Prices + Metals Goin’ Down oil production approaching 1970 peak oil demand 15% below peak secular stagnation
  18. 18. HiddenLevers SCENARIOS: END OF INFLATION
  19. 19. Scenario Complete – Hello Rate Hike Scenario Updates due to Fed (in)action Scenario Updates InflationGlobal Deflation Fed Delays Super Tantrum Fed Pops Bubble
  20. 20. Scenario: Global Deflation Good Flat CPI + Growth Neutral US Treads Water Ugly US Turning Japanese CPI -3 S&P -33% CPI 0 S&P -9% CPI 0.2 S&P 15% Global QE coupled with modest growth might enable bull market to continue Drop in inflation and global growth fears lead to mild bear market (including S&P correction to date) If deflation grips all first world economies, drop in demand leads to significant equity correction, but bond market rallies strongly Good Flat CPI + Growth Neutral US Treads Water Ugly US Turning Japanese
  21. 21. Scenario: Inflation If US economic growth propels inflation, the Fed can start its rate hike schedule and begin normalization An unexpected burst of inflation could force the Fed to move faster than expected, leading to equity market declines. A strong inflationary surge could lead to a mild recession, causing a deeper market correction Good Fed Target Hit Neutral Rapidly Rising Prices Ugly Stagflation CPI 4.0 S&P -20% CPI 3.0 S&P -10% CPI 2.0 S&P 10%
  22. 22. The End of Inflation? – Take Aways Inflation tanks are empty across the first world – 0.0 Primary causes of deflation are tech + demographic shift Global QE has not beat back deflationary forces Technology has broken normal commodities cycle
  23. 23. Client Screen Product Update Print Blank Risk Questionnaire Loss Tolerance Capture INTEGRATION Riskalyze