Wie geht es weiter mit der Energiepolitik nach der Wahl? Hill+Knowlton Strategies vergleicht die Wahlprogramme und wagt den Ausblick.

1.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies
CDU/CSU, SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, DIE LINKE and FDP
Comparison of Proposed
Policy Programs for 2017
General Election:
Energy
August 2017

2.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies2
IN BRIEF
On September 24, German citizens will be
summoned to the ballots to elect a new
federal parliament. The next government
coalition is still up for debate but will most
likely be led by Angela Merkel‘s CDU
(favored by about 40% of the voters). The
new coalition will determine Germany‘s
policy agenda in the years to come – also
with regard to energy and climate issues.
Despite a substantial increase of
renewable energy in the power sector,
Germany‘s climate footprint has grown
larger in the past years. To tackle this
issue, the next government will have to
leverage efficiencies by coupling the
heating, the transport and the power
sector, speed up grid expansion and build
reliable storage systems.
This document contrasts the energy policy
proposals of the most relevant parties –
CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, the Green and the
Left Party – as stated in their election
programs. It goes on to illustrate current
election polls and sheds light on possible
coalition outcomes and their potential
impact on energy and climate policy.

3.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies3
THE MAIN CATEGORIES FOR COMPARISON
NUCLEAR
ENERGY
ENERGY
MIX v
CLIMATE
PROTECTION
SUBSIDIES
POWER GRID ENERGY
STORAGE
TECHNO-
LOGIES
ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
ENERGY
MARKET
HEATING
MARKET

4.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies4
ENERGY PROGRAM OF THE CDU/CSU
 ENERGY MIX: long-term replacement of fossil fuels with renewables;
long-term phase-out of coal
 NUCLEAR ENERGY: German nuclear phase-out by 2023
 ENERGY MARKET: favour market solutions for the energy sector;
renewables to be incorporated into the energy system in a market-compatible way
 POWER GRID: accelerate extension of the grid; unified national electricity price zone;
electricity must remain affordable for everyone
 ENERGY STORAGE: promotion of modern electricity storage technology; establishment of
a national battery cell production
 HEATING MARKET: tax supported renovations of buildings
 TECHNOLOGIES: potential of coupling of sectors to be leveraged
 CLIMATE PROTECTION: committed to Paris Agreement and national climate protection
targets (Climate Action Plan 2050); modern technologies to support climate protection efforts

5.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies5
ENERGY PROGRAM OF THE SPD
ÜBERBLICK
 ENERGY MIX: fossil fuels to complement renewables; support the
expansion of renewables; gas important for energy production; support
a largely GHG-neutral energy production by 2050
 NUCLEAR ENERGY: German nuclear phase-out by 2022; EU to end
subsidies for new nuclear power plants to drive global phase-out
 POWER GRID: favour the expansion of a cross-border grid infrastructure for distribution-
and transmission-level
 TECHNOLOGIES / HEATING MARKET: support the expansion of CHP plants; leverage
potential of sector coupling in a way open to all technologies; evolving measures to improve
energy efficiency
 CLIMATE PROTECTION: further development of the Climate Action Plan 2050 in
accordance with Paris Agreement; support of technology neutrality; implementation of
national climate action legislation by reviewing subsidies; evolvement of EU ETS system or
entering negotiations for the coordination of minimum CO2 prices at European level

6.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies6
ENERGY PROGRAM OF THE LEFT PARTY
ÜBERBLICK
 ENERGY MIX: coal phase-out by 2035; electricity consumption to be 100%
renewable by 2040; set goals for share of renewables in heating market
 NUCLEAR ENERGY: nuclear power plants to be shut down immediately,
support of global nuclear phase-out
 ENERGY MARKET: stricter competition/antitrust laws for electricity, gas and
mineral oil conglomerates; national control over power and heating network
 POWER GRID: unified electricity prize zone for all voltage levels; decentralised power supply and
the expansion of storage systems will require only small network expansions
 ENERGY STORAGE: investors to include local communities in development of storage systems
 SUBSIDIES: increase subsidies for renewables; abolish industrial discounts within eco-tax, EEG
levy, grid charges and emissions trading; decrease electricity tax for private consumers
 TECHNOLOGIES / ENERGY EFFICIENCY: permanently ban carbon capture and storage; increase
expansion and support of CHP power plants (aim: 25% of electricity production by 2020); increase
energy efficiency efforts
 CLIMATE PROTECTION: update Climate Action Plan 2050 to comply with Paris Agreement; three
billion surplus CO2 certificates from the EU ETS to be cancelled

7.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies7
ENERGY PROGRAM OF THE GREEN PARTY
ÜBERBLICK
 ENERGY MARKET: favour a strong climate and EU energy union; advance
decentralised power system
 ENERGY MIX: coal exit by 2030; fossil-fuel phase-out to be initiated now to result
in 100% renewable electricity by 2030; increase expansion goals for renewables;
energy supply for buildings, mobility and process heat exclusively from renewable
energies by 2050
 NUCLEAR ENERGY: support an European nuclear phase-out and an end to nuclear energy subsidies
and a reintroduction of a nuclear fuel-rod tax
 SUBSIDIES: decrease industrial discounts for electricity, predicating them on efficiency measures, abolish
electricity tax, decrease EEG levy and increase incentives for the modernization of buildings
 POWER GRID: focus on underground cables; usage-related regional price zones; strengthening of EU
power network
 TECHNOLOGY: favour the coupling of sectors to use excessive electricity output
 CLIMATE PROTECTION: establish a national climate action law and climate goals for the relevant
sectors; increase annual targets in climate agreements; European targets to be adapted to the Paris
Agreement (obligatory CO2 reduction of at least 95% compared to 1990); demand a reform of the EU ETS
system, the cancellation of excess CO2 certificates and a minimum price for CO2

8.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies8
ENERGY PROGRAM OF THE FDP
ÜBERBLICK
 ENERGY MIX: promote a diverse mix with new technologies including
fossil fuels
 ENERGY MARKET: favour the strengthening and liberalisation of the
EU internal energy market; electricity production to be outsourced to
cost-effective locations
 DISMANTLING OF SUBSIDIES: favour abolition of EEG and a reform
of the power grid financing system and lower electricity tax
 POWER GRID: more responsibility for grid stability for all energy producers (polluter liability)
 TECHNOLOGIES / HEATING MARKET: potential of sector coupling to be exploited (incl.
power-to-x technology); storage and controlling technology for heating systems
 CLIMATE PROTECTION: focus on international climate goals rather than national; EU ETS
system to be strengthened and applied to other sectors; support entrepreneurial flexibility in
the trading of CO2 certificates; interventions in the carbon pricing market and restrictive
regulation rejected; all types of technology supported for climate protection efforts

9.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies9
CONCLUSION
ÜBERBLICK
NO MORE NUCLEAR ENERGY & FOSSIL FUELS
Most parties support the phase-out of nuclear energy and fossil fuels. Only the FDP
promotes an energy mix open to all technologies.
PACE IS THE KEY
The distinguishing feature within their policy programs is the pace in which this exit is going
to be conducted and how it is going to be executed.
AMBITIOUS PROGRAMS
Some parties place much more importance to energy issues than others – moderate
energy policy proposals are facing very ambitious policy programs. To find a common
ground in this field of topic might be one of the main challenges to overcome in the next
coalition talks.

10.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies10
CURRENT POLLS

11.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies11
CURRENT POLLS
ÜBERBLICK
37
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Greens
AFD
FDP
Left
SPD
CDU/CSU
Current Polls 27/07- 23/08
37 – 41%
21 – 25%
8 – 10%
7 – 10%
7 – 10%
6 – 9%
*
*Source: Forsa, Infratest Dimap, TNS Emnid, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Allensbach, GMS, INSA

12.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies12
LIKELY COALITIONS

13.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies13
LIKELY COALITIONS
ÜBERBLICK

14.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies14
POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF
COALITION TALKS

15.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies15
POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF COALITION TALKS
ÜBERBLICK
1. CDU/CSU + SPD
The „grand“ coalition has been the constellation of two recent legislative periods (2005–2009 and 2013-2017). As the
main topics and opinions of the two major parties in Germany have not been too far apart in recent years, this coalition
might not face as many obstacles in coalition talks as other cooperations and continue its work regarding energy policy
like before. Next actions are likely to include more concrete climate action plans. However, the SPD base feels very
uncomfortable regarding a continuation of the ‘grand’ coalition, as it is seen by many as eroding the SPD’s position in the
long run.
2. CDU/CSU + FDP
A coalition between the CDU/CSU and the FDP would be the most friendly one towards conventional energy sources.
This cooperation would be unlikely to result in a quick coal phase-out or an exit from nuclear energy by the envisioned
end date 2022, as the FDP would use the slow grid expansion and the lack of energy storage options to make the case
for conventional energies. Industry-friendly reforms of energy taxes and levies are likely, while climate efforts will focus
on tech-friendly market solutions and the potential from the coupling of sectors.
3. CDU/CSU + DIE GRÜNEN
A coalition of the CDU/CSU and the Greens would see great friction over energy and environmental topics. The
CDU/CSU would have to make concessions to the Greens regarding climate policy: concrete plans for a coal phase-out,
a reform of the EEG, a revised climate action plan and stricter carbon reduction measures are imaginable. Nevertheless,
in this coalition the Greens would face a great reputational risk as they would have to compromise on many of their
campaign promises.
4. CDU/CSU + FDP + DIE GRÜNEN
A coalition between the CDU/CSU, the Greens and the FDP is among the most complicated options. In this scenario, the
Greens might face most challenges concerning their ambitious climate protection and anti-pollution policies. A
continuation of the subsidies for renewables and the promotion of sector coupling efforts might function as compromises
in this divers setting.

16.  © Hill+Knowlton Strategies16
HILL+KNOWLTON STRATEGIES
berlin@hkstrategies.com
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www.hkstrategies.de