Clean Energy Investment Trends By Michael Liebreich Of New Energy Finance June 2008

Clean Energy Investment Trends
REFF Wall Street Market Drivers
Michael Liebreich
Chairman & CEO
new energy finance

New York, 19th June 2008

Total Global New Investment in Clean Energy
2004 2007

$148.4bn
1% of global fixed
60%
asset investment
Growth Clean energy
58%
Growth
asset finance is
76%
$92.6bn
9.6% of global
Growth energy
$58.7bn infrastructure
spend
$33.4bn 2.5 times the
size of
commercial
aircraft
2004 2005 2006 2007 investment sector
Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment assumes a 1 year Source: New Energy Finance, IMF WEO Database, IEA WEO
lag between VC/PE/Public Markets funds raised and re-investment in 2007, Boeing 2006 Annual Report
projects. Grossed up value based on disclosed deals
© new energy finance, 2008 2

NEX vs. AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 2003
- 2007
500
NEX AMEX Oil NASDAQ S&P 500
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
30 Dec 02 30 Dec 03 30 Dec 04 30 Dec 05 30 Dec 06 30 Dec 07

Index Values as of 09 June 2008 Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg

© new energy finance, 2008

NEX vs. AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 crunch!
Credit
500
NEX AMEX Oil NASDAQ S&P 500
450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
30 Dec 02 30 Dec 03 30 Dec 04 30 Dec 05 30 Dec 06 30 Dec 07

Index Values as of 09 June 2008 Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg


Total public markets transactions,
Q1 2004 Q1 2008
$12.8bn

Secondary

IPO
$5.4bn $5.3bn$5.2bn

$4.3bn
$3.9bn $3.7bn

$2.0bn$1.9bn Convertible & Other
$1.5bn $1.4bn
$1.2bn $1.0bn
$0.9bn
$0.2bn $0.4bn
$0.1bn $0.1bn

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
'04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08

Main markets only. OTC markets include with VCPE figure Source: New Energy Finance


Total asset financing transactions
Q1 2004 Q1 2008
$37.1bn

$30.5bn

$27.8bn
Acquisition
$24.7bn $24.9bn

$19.1bn

$16.5bn Refinancing
$15.3bn $15.8bn
$14.3bn
$13.4bn

$9.0bn$9.1bn
$7.8bn
New build
$5.8bn
$4.4bn
$3.3bn$3.8bn

'04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08

Grossed up values based on disclosed deals. Source: New Energy Finance


Venture capital and private equity for companies,
Q1 2004 Q1 2008
$4.7bn

$3.7bn
$3.5bn $3.5bn PIPE/OTC
$3.4bn

$2.9bn
PE Buy-out
$2.5bn $2.5bn

$2.1bn
$1.9bn
PE Expansion Capital
$1.6bn
$1.5bn $1.4bn
$1.2bn $1.2bn VC Late Stage

$0.6bn
$0.4bn VC Early Stage
$0.2bn

'04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08



Total public markets transactions,
Q1 2004 Q2 2008 INDICATIVE
Q2 2008 VALUE
$12.8bn

Secondary

IPO
$5.4bn $5.3bn$5.2bn

$4.3bn
$3.9bn $3.7bn

$2.0bn$1.9bn Convertible & Other
$1.5bn $1.4bn
$1.2bn $1.0bn
$0.9bn
$0.2bn $0.4bn
$0.1bn $0.1bn

'04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08

Main markets only. OTC markets include with VCPE figure Source: New Energy Finance


Venture capital and private equity for companies,
Q2 2008 VALUE

$4.7bn

$3.7bn
$3.5bn $3.5bn PIPE/OTC
$3.4bn

$2.9bn
PE Buy-out
$2.5bn $2.5bn

$2.1bn
$1.9bn
PE Expansion Capital
$1.6bn
$1.5bn $1.4bn
$1.2bn $1.2bn VC Late Stage

$0.6bn
$0.4bn VC Early Stage
$0.2bn

'04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08



Total asset financing transactions
Q2 2008 VALUE
$37.1bn

$30.5bn

$27.8bn
Acquisition
$24.7bn $24.9bn

$19.1bn

$16.5bn Refinancing
$15.3bn $15.8bn
$14.3bn
$13.4bn

$9.0bn$9.1bn
$7.8bn
New build
$5.8bn
$4.4bn
$3.3bn$3.8bn

'04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08



Eurozone wind farm financing rate, Euribor rate
and ECB official rate

8%
ECB rate
Fed rate Euribor
US Libor Total rate including spread
Total rate including spread
7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%
Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2007 Jan 2008 Apr 2008

Source: New Energy Finance


US wind farm financing rate, US Libor
and Fed funds rate

8%
Fed rate US Libor Total rate including spread
7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%
Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2007 Jan 2008 Apr 2008



Yields on tax equity in affordable housing and wind projects
2007 - 2008: %
7.00%
6.50%
5.75%
5.00%

Affordable Housing
tax yields

PTC yields

Summer 2007 Summer 2008
Anecdotal evidence based on interviews with tax equity investors and wind project developers. Source: New Energy Finance


USD denominated contracts, Q4 2002- Q12008:
Sample Size and $m/MW
12 1.4
Number
1.3
Price
10
38% rise in prices 1.2
Q4 '06- Q1'08
1.1
8
1.0

6 0.9

0.8
4
0.7

0.6
2
0.5

0 0.4
Q4 003

Q3 004

Q2 005

Q3 006
Q2 004

Q4 005

Q2 007
Q1 002

Q2 003

Q3 003

Q4 004

Q1 004

Q3 005

Q1 005

Q2 006

Q1 006

Q3 007

Q4 007

Q1 007

8
Q4 006
Q1 003

00
_2

_2

_2

_2
_2

_2

_2
_2

_2

_2

_2

_2

_2

_2

_2

_2

_2
_2

_2

_2

_2
_2
Q4

Notes: 10 point rolling average, averaged by quarter of contract signing. Where no data points
Source: Companies, New Energy Finance
present, previous value from the previous quarter is usd

Wind turbine supply lead times
April 2001 - March 2008
25

20

15

10

5

0
Sep '02 Mar '03 Oct '03 Apr '04 Nov '04 May '05 Dec '05 Jul '06 Jan '07 Aug '07 Feb '08

Lead times 30pt rolling avg
Notes: Trend line reflects 30point rolling average beginning in April 2001. Lead times are based on
expected start of delivery, less date of contract signed. Source: New Energy Finance


Reported US wind project power prices: $/MWh
7%
40.0 100 Increase $36.0/MWh
Number of reporting projects (RH) $33.5/MWh
Weighted average price (LH) 90

35.0 80
Electricity price ($/MWh)

70

30.0 60

50

25.0 40

30

20.0 20

10

15.0 0
Average 2003 Average 2007
Q4
Q4
Q4

Q4

Q4
06
03

04

05

07
20
20

20

20

20

Notes: Prices are average of reported quarterly contract prices weighted by volume of Source: Federal Energy Regulatory
electricity. Reporting projects exclude projects connected in ERCOT zone. Commission, New Energy Finance Desktop


NEX vs. Wind Sector
240 Turbine
Manufacturer (6)

220

200
NEX Wind
180 (15)

160
NEX (89)
140 Developer/
Power
Generator (7)
120

100

80
Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08

Index Values as of 19 May 2008 Source: New Energy Finance, Bloomberg


Projected solar silicon production by tier, 2006-
2011 ktonnes

147

118

80
Silicon Tier 3

49
Silicon Tier 2
27
19
Silicon Tier 1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Methodology explained in Research Note, “The cell maker’s dilemma: When will the silicon shortage ease?”. Based on data Source: New Energy Finance,
and assumptions updated in February 2008. 2008


2006 US biofuels bull run
And investment shift to South America
$13.1bn

$8.7bn

$6.9bn

$4.2bn
$4.0bn
M&A/MBO

$0.7bn
$1.0bn $1.0bn New
$0.2bn
2001 2002 2003
$0.04bn
2004
$0.2bn
2005 2006
investment
2007

VC/PE, Public Markets and Asset Finance only. Excludes re-investment adjustment.
Grossed up value based on disclosed deals

Biofuels contribution to food price increases, 2004
- 2007
Max price impact
of Biofuels

Grains 168% + 8.1%

Food Oils 136% + 17.0%

Sugarcane 63% + 2.7%

Input cost $ depreciation Other Supply & Demand Biofuels

Base currency: US$ Source: New Energy Finance, USDA


Grain supply-demand drivers, 2004-2007:
m hectares (% change of land use)

Added land 20.2 (2.9%)

Consumption habits 2.7 (0.4%)

Animal feed -2.6 (-0.4%)

Yield Increase -3.6 (-0.5%)

Urbanisation -4.8 (-0.7%) 100%= 686m
Hectares.
Total net impact on
Australia -6.6 (-1.%)
land availability
equivalent to -3.9%
Biofuels -7.6 (-1.1%)

Population -24.1 (-3.5%)

Source: New Energy Finance, USDA


Grain land use for ethanol production 2007
(k hectares)
US EU 27 China

0 0 0
Rice
Sorghu 0 0 0
m

0 172 137
Wheat

22 831
Corn 9,017

Source: New Energy Finance, USDA


New Energy Finance
New Carbon Finance
www.newenergyfinance.com
www.newcarbonfinance.com

Michael Liebreich
+44 20 7092 8803
michael.liebreich@newenergyfinance.com

Decision support for your
clean energy and carbon
market investments

Clean Energy Investment Trends By Michael Liebreich Of New Energy Finance June 2008

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