1. Identifying Profitable
Public-Spirited
Business
Opportunities Using
MiniTrends
John H. Vanston, Ph.D.
Technology Futures, Inc.
(512) 258-8898
www.minitrends.com & www.tfi.com
jvanston@tfi.com
Product Camp
February 16, 2013, AT&T Conference Center
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
1
2. Presentation Outline
Brief introduction to MiniTrend Concept
Identification of profitable public spirited
public-spirited
business opportunities by participants
using the MiniTrends concept
Discussion of identified MiniTrends
Closing remarks
3
MEGATRENDS John Naisbitt 1982
Industrial Society → Information Society
Forced Technology → High Tech/High Touch
National Economy → World Economy
Short Term → Long Term
Centralization → Decentralization
Institutional Help → Self Help
Representative Democracy → Participatory Democracy
Hierarchies → Networking
North → South
Either/Or → Multiple Options 4
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
2
3. MEGATRENDS Current
Convergence of Computer and Communication
Technologies
Movement from a Physics Age to the
Biotechnology
Biotechnolog Age
Increasing Awareness of Climate Change
Government Involvement in the Financial Arena
Explosion of Social Media Involvement
Growing Difficulty with Sovereign Debt
Long Term Energy Shortage
Aging of Populations in Earth’s Most Prosperous
Nations
Rise in China’s Economic Power 5
Megatrends are certainly
important
However
However, it is hard to exploit them
successfully because:
• They are well known
• They are too general to provide specific
g
guidance
Buried within Megatrends are
MiniTrends
6
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
3
4. MiniTrends…
…are emerging trends that are of a scope
and importance to represent attractive
business opportunities to individuals and
organizations that are:
Alert enough to recognize them
Perceptive e oug to appreciate them
e cept e enough app ec ate t e
Clever enough to take advantage of them
7
Characteristics of a MiniTrend
Sufficiently evolved that reasonable
projections can be made about future
developments
d l t
Promises to be significantly important in
the relatively near future (2-5 years)
Not yet widely recognized and/or
y y g
appreciated by the general public or most
businesses
8
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
4
5. Who Can Gain from MINITRENDS:
Entrepreneurs to identify, assess, and
exploit attractive new business opportunities
Decision Makers in small and mid size
mid-size
businesses to gain advantage by recognizing
and utilizing emerging trends
Innovative Thinkers in larger businesses to
distinguish themselves by their special
insights and p
g perceptiveness
p
Investors to uncover attractive new
investment opportunities
Job Seekers to define 9
employment opportunities
Energy Needs
Renewable Energy
Wind Power
Wind
Ge e ato
Generator
Controls
(Megatrend)
This is a MiniTrend
(Still a Megatrend) 10
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
5
6. How to Uncover Attractive
MINITRENDS
Follow the Money
Follow the Leaders
Examine Limits
Consider Human Nature
Take Note of Demographics
Analyze Frustrations
Search for Convergences 11
12
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
6
7. Impact Wheels
The systematic use of the intuition,
judgment, and knowledge of an
individual or group to determine first and
higher order impacts of:
Trends
Decisions
Events
Strategies
13
Steps in Impact Wheel
Development
Select trend, decision, event, or strategy for analysis
Place in hub of wheel Implication Implication
Implication
I li i
Record direct
Implication
implications of activity Trend,
Implication
Decision,
Implication
Record next level Strategy,
or Event
Implication
implications connected Implication
by double or color lines Implication
Implication
Continue process as desired
Connect circles as appropriate 14
Analyze results and opportunities
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
7
8. 15
Job Seekers
Wind
Generator
Controls
Wind
Power
Energy Renewable
Needs Energy
16
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
8
9. MiniTrend Identification Exercise
Gathering participants into groups
Selection of Group Leaders
Selection of Megatrend on which to
concentrate
Identification of attractive MiniTrends
Discussion of identified MiniTrends
17
Candidate MegaTrends
Protection of the biosphere
Sustainable use of natural resources
Reduction and disposal of waste
Energy conservation
Safe products and services
Environment restoration
From Coalition for Environmentally Responsible 18
Companies(CERES) Code
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
9
10. Final Comment
Application of the MiniTrend Concept will
allow both you and your colleagues to
demonstrate and utilize your originality,
d t t d tili i i lit
your logic, your perceptiveness, your
basic good sense, and
YOUR IMAGINATION
19
It can also be a lot of fun!
These and other non-sourced photos: Clipart.com (A division of Getty Images) or TFI
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
10
11. Identifying Profitable
Public-Spirited
Business
Opportunities Using
MiniTrends
John H. Vanston, Ph.D.
Technology Futures, Inc.
(512) 258-8898
www.minitrends.com & www.tfi.com
jvanston@tfi.com
Product Camp
21
February 16, 2013, AT&T Conference Center
“Identifying Profitable Public-Spirited Business Opportunities Using MiniTrends”
Product Camp, February 16, 2013 AT&T Conference Center
Please contact presenter Dr. John Vanston at jvanston@tfi.com to reproduce presentation material.
11
