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[Kantar worldpanel] FMCG Monitor from March to November 2017
1.
2. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
GDP growth is slowest
in 3 years coupled with
high CPI. Yet, retail
sales of consumer
goods still grow steadily.
FMCG
GROWTH
BRIGHTER VIEW in both
Urban 4 key cities and
Rural FMCG market.
SAUCES & PAPER
PRODUCTS are
emerging in Urban 4
cities and Rural
respectively.
HYPERMARKETS &
SUPERMARKETS is
expected to return to
growth.
It is harder to gain
CONSUMERS’ TRUST,
more challenges for
new launches!
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
Doi
hinh doi
text
3. 3
KEY INDICATORS
GDP Q1 grew at the slowest pace in three years coupled with high CPI due to the increase in medicine and healthcare services.
Vietnam’s GDP in Q2 is forecasted to expand 5.6 – 6.3% and CPI in April is also predicted to rise to a higher level than March. Much
more efforts needed to reach the 2017 target of 6.7% and control the CPI under 4%. Despite the slower GDP growth, retail sales of
consumer goods still maintain strong growth in the 1st quarter.
+4.96%
Q1’17 vs. YA
+5.10%
Q1’17 vs. YA
+9.8%
Q1’17 vs. YA
+1.25% +9.2%
Q1’16 vs. YA Q1’16 vs. YA
+5.48%
Q1’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP
Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods
4. 3.2
7.2
4.0
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
9.8 7.85.8 4.34.5 2.4
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Urban 4 key cities FMCG market keeps going up, hitting the
highest growth in 3 years. Meanwhile, continuous improvement is
observed in Rural FMCG market during the first 3 months of this
year. Hence, the market is expected to strengthen its growth in
the end of 2017.
3.5
6.4
3.1
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
2.7
0.7
3.2 1.9
5.7
2.9
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
One year ending Q1
5. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
0
-1
11
7
9
4
11
7
10
6
11
8
6
4
-1
-4
9
5
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Most of sectors are growing well in Urban 4 cities, except for Dairy due to the decline in purchased volume. In Rural, key drivers - Dairy
and Beverage sectors are getting their momentum back, reaching double-digit growth thanks to the rebound in volume consumption. It
shows positive signals for Rural market’s recovery in the long term.
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
Q1’17 versus year ago
11
11
6. 6
*Total sauces: Fish sauce, Soya sauce, Oyster sauce, Chili sauce, Ketchup/ Tomato sauce, Mayonnaise | *Paper products: Toilet tissue, Box tissue, Pocket tissue, Hand towel, Table Napkins
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL
HOT CATEGORY
Sauces and paper products are emerging in Urban 4 cities and Rural respectively. Zoom into each region, spending for sauces has
increased in Urban areas, the market become more sophisticated as Urban consumers start to try new sauce products such as Mayonnaise
and Ketchup. In Rural areas, a noticeable expansion in shopper base has taken place in paper products market. By reaching more new
buyers, Table napkins and Toilet tissue are two outstanding categories among them. Are people changing their eating and cleaning habits?
+7.9%
Q1’17 versus year ago
Mayonnaise
Ketchup/
Tomato sauce
Table Napkins
Toilet tissue
Sauce
products*
Paper
products*
Annual spend per buyer
+7.9%
No. of Buyers
2/3 of Rural households
+ 3.6 points
+ 2.4 points
+ 3.4 points
+ 3.2 points
No. of Buyers
10% of Urban Households
No. of Buyers
15% of Urban Households
No. of Buyers
22% of Rural Households
No. of Buyers
53% of Rural Households
(+3.0 points of Incremental Households)
7. MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
35
26
10
7
13
3
6
33
29
10
7
13
2 6
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
10
67
15
2
6
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
68
17
2 5
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
VALUE CHANGE %
Q1’17 versus year ago
13% 2% 6% = 39% 28% 5% 5%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
Q1’16
Q1’17Urban
4 cities Rural
8% 10%
Medium-sized street shops, Mini-stores (minimarkets and convenience stores) in Urban 4 cities and small street shops in Rural are still
key drivers of growth. By expanding shopper base and getting more traffic, mini-stores remain the fastest growing channel. While Hyper
& Supermarkets are expected to return to growth as they achieve better performance in Q1 versus last year, mostly thanks to Tet.
8. 8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
“I like to buy and try out new products”
“I believe in benefits claimed by products”
“I often try new product after I see its advertisements”
“I tend to try new products if others recommend”
“I am more likely to try new products if it is on
promotion”
“Nowadays, I spend time to search for information about
the products before buying”
(2016 vs 2011)
(2016 vs 2015)
* New launch 2016 include new brands, variants, formats, pack size
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Lifestyle Survey 2016 & Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
Rural
Change in %Agree
Their spending on New launch*
(VND)
Who
disagree
Urban 4 cities
Who
disagree
Who
agree
Who
agree
1,000k 878k
366k 337k
Consumers are more skeptical of the influencing factors around them as it seems they want to seek more information themselves
to really make a decision. This implies it’s harder to gain consumers’ trust & more challenges for new launches!
% “Who agree” declines across years
“Who disagree” spend
less on new launches
than “Who agree”
9. 9
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
The key word is TRUST!
Source: Kantar Worldpanel
How to
capture
consumer
minds on
their path to
purchase?
Clear product labels
& ingredients
Transparent & convincing
communication message
Create product
experience by sampling
or in-store activation
Reliable product reviews,
endorsement from trusted
KOLs & shop owners
Assess the right & most
influential touch-points
Awareness Consideration Purchase
10. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Senior Marketing Executive
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
11.
12. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
Uncertainty to reach the
economic growth target
yet retail sales of
consumer goods still
grow well.
FMCG
GROWTH
A GLOWING OUTLOOK
of FMCG is continuously
expected by the end of
2017.
INSTANT TEA &
HOUSEHOLD
CLEANER products
are outstanding
categories.
Medium-sized street
shops, Hyper &
Supermarkets are growing
their importance.
GROWING UP MILK
POWDER is currently
struggling, especially
among babies >1 YO!
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
13. 3
KEY INDICATORS
On average in the first 4 months of 2017, CPI is lower than the average of Q1 2017 yet still posts at a high rate compared to last year.
Though the rest of the year is predicted to see positive improvements with more efforts needed, Vietnam eyes a tough road to reach
the 2017’s target of economic growth. In the context of weaker economic performance than expected, the healthy growth of retail sales
of consumer goods is a bright spot.
+4.8%
YTD P4’17 vs. YA
+5.10%
Q1’17 vs. YA
+9.7%
YTD P4’17 vs. YA
+1.41% +9.0%
YTD P4’16 vs. YA YTD P4’16 vs. YA
+5.48%
Q1’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP
Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods
14. 3.1
6.7
3.6
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
YTDP4'17
(16w/e)
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
9.2 7.55.5 4.05.1 2.9
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Urban 4 key cities FMCG market keep moving up in both value
and volume while Rural market is likely to get its momentum
back. In short term, the market has been recovering in Rural
since the 2nd quarter of 2016 and reaches the highest growth in
this period. Overall, a glowing outlook of FMCG is continuously
expected by the end of 2017.
3.1
7.1
4.2
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
YTDP4'17
(16w/e)
2.4
0.6
3.6 2.2
5.6
2.8
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
One year ending P4’17
15. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-2
-2
11
6
9
4
11
7
10
7
12
10
8
6
-1
-4
10
7
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Beverages and Packaged Foods are leading the growth of Urban market while Beverages and Dairy are driving the recovery of Rural
market. Personal Care and Home Care also show great achievements thanks to the increase in consumption. In general, positive
performance is observed across most of sectors, except for Dairy in Urban 4 cities and Packaged Foods in Rural. The reason is the
stagnancy or even decline of some major categories such as Milk Powder (Urban 4 cities), Cooking Additives and Instant Noodle (Rural).
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
YTD P4’17 versus year ago
11
11
16. 6
* Household cleaner: Floor Cleaner, Bathroom & Toilet Cleaner, Small Surface Cleaner.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL
HOT CATEGORY
Instant Tea and Household Cleaner products stand out in Urban 4 cities and Rural respectively in this period. By adding more new buyers to
their shopper base, Instant Tea and Household Cleaner enjoy strong growth in volume consumption. These categories see great potential
for development in terms of both market penetration and consumption uplift.
Are they gaining from others? Or are there new needs arising that develop the market further?
+7.9%
YTD P4’17 versus year ago
Instant
Tea
Household
Cleaner*
Volume growth
+23%
Volume growth
+ 1.7 points
2packs/ week
+ 1.5 points
1.7L
% Buyers
12% of Urban Households
Volume
per buyer
% Buyers
30% of Rural Households
Volume
per buyer
+7%
(vs. 2.9L in Urban 4 cities)
17. MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
26
10
7
14
3
6
33
29
10
7
13
3 6
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
10
67
16
2
6
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
68
17
2 5
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
VALUE CHANGE % (YTD P4’17 versus year ago)
12% 3% 3% = 29% 26% 6% 5%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
YTD P4’16
YTD P4’17Urban
4 cities Rural
7% 13%
By upgrading and modernizing themselves, medium-sized street shops grow ahead of the market and gain more ground not only in
Urban 4 cities but also in Rural areas recently. During the first 4 months, Hyper & Supermarkets keep growing their importance by
widening their reach, recruiting more Urban shoppers. Therefore, together with the rapid development of mini-stores (minimarkets &
CVS), modern trade probably will be able to make a better movement this year.
18. 13 - 24 months 25 - 36 months
8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Growing Up
Milk Powder
- 0.6
Volume
per baby
% Buyers
points - 2.9 points
- 1.6
(vs year ago)
% - 2.8 %
(vs year ago)
Threat to Growing Up Milk Powder
In Urban 2 key cities, the category is currently facing both buyer departure and decreased consumption among babies >1 year old
despite the brighter view of FMCG market. Following the convenience trend with modern moms, is it losing shoppers to Ready-to-
drink dairy products like Ready-to-drink Growing Up Formula Milk (RTD GUM)?
+ 46%
Among households with babies < 48 months
+ 2.7points
% Volume growth % Buyers
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Baby Panel – Urban 2 Key Cities (Ho Chi Minh & Ha Noi) Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel – Urban 4 Key Cities
RTD
GUM
19. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
20.
21. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
The average CPI of the
first 5 months is still over
4%. The 2017’s
economic growth target
remains
CHALLENGING.
FMCG
GROWTH
Urban 4 key cities FMCG
market has been on an
UPWARD TREND. While
Rural market keeps
recovering.
FRUIT JUICE comes
up as the top rising
category.
Medium-sized Street
Shops and Modern Trade
retain their GREAT
MOVEMENTS.
CONVENIENCE
STORE (CVS): A game
changer for Vietnam’s
retail?
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
22. 3
KEY INDICATORS
The average CPI of the first 5 months is still over 4%. Although retail sales grow steadily, FDI and export are
expected to continue improving, the 2017’s target of economic growth remains challenging for Vietnam.
+4.47%
YTD May’17 vs. YA
+5.10%
Q1’17 vs. YA
+10.4%
YTD May’17 vs. YA
+1.59% +9.5%
YTD May’16 vs. YA YTD May’16 vs. YA
+5.48%
Q1’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP
Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods
23. 2.7
5.1
2.6
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
12w/eP5'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.7 7.35.4 4.04.6 2.2
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
In short term, Urban 4 key cities FMCG market slows slightly
compared to previous period, yet still shows an upward
trend. While Rural market keeps recovering thanks to the
uplift in volume consumption.
3.2
6.5
3.5
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
12w/eP5'17
1.9
0.4
4.1
2.5
5.2
2.4
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
One year ending P5’17
24. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-3
-4
10
6
7
1
11
8
7
5
9
8
11
8
1
-4
12
8
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Beverages enjoy good performance in both Urban 4 cities and Rural, many nice-to-have categories in Personal Care and Home
Care also grow well. Most of Personal Care products increase volume consumption while arising products from Home Care such as
box tissue, pocket tissue, liquid detergent, cleaning products… continue attracting new buyers. Are consumers now paying more
attention to both personal and environmental hygiene!?
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
12 w/e P5’17 versus year ago
14
14
25. 6
HOT CATEGORY
Fruit Juice is a top rising category in both Urban 4 cities and Rural in this period. Its growth is driven by higher
consumption however the category also sees huge room to expand further in terms of shopper base. Can Fruit Juice
brands be able to capture the health trend and leverage the growth?
12 w/e P5’17 versus year ago
Urban 4 Cities Rural
Did you know…
FRUIT JUICE
(in-home consumption)
…In a week, only 4% of
individuals* drink branded
Fruit Juice while 56% drink
unbranded ones.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
*Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Drinking Usage
panel | Urban 4 Key Cities | Individual 4YO+ |
In-home & Out of home Consumption
Volume
per buyer
Volume
growth
% Buyers
+23%vs YA +54%vs YA
12%
of Urban households
7%
of Rural households
282ml/ week
(+37% vs YA)
282ml/ week
(+25% vs YA)
26. MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
26
10
7
14
3
6
32
29
10
7
12
3 6
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
68
17
2 5
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
VALUE CHANGE % (12 w/e P5’17 versus year ago)
9% 4% 4% = 21% 31% 5% 5%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
12 w/e P5’16
12 w/e P5’17Urban
4 cities Rural
5% 15%
Modern Trade channels are now growing faster than traditional channels in Urban areas thanks to the recovery of H&S as well as
continued development of Mini-Stores. In Rural, Medium-sized Street Shops keep widening, adding over 800 thousand households
to their shopper base. It seems that Rural shoppers are now also heading toward upgraded and modernized shopping places.
10
67
16
2
6
27. 8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Convenience store (CVS): A game changer for Vietnam’s retail?
Japan’s store chain 7-Eleven come to Vietnam and open its first store in June that promise the market getting more dynamic. More
players enter the market, more stores open, this retail format is expanding its way into every street in Urban area. With proximity,
modernity, fast and convenient shopping experience CVSs offer and “motorbike culture”, Vietnamese consumers might skip over the
stage of modern trade development and leapfrog straight to this shopping channel!?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
VinMart+ Shop & Go Circle K B's Mart Family Mart Aeon Citimart B&B Ministop
Number of Stores
5%
8%
15%
22%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2030F
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities | Total FMCG excluding Gift
% Buyers shop at CVSs
(for in-home purchase)
80%
28. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
29.
30. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
Vietnam economy sees
positive improvements in
Quarter 2.
FMCG
GROWTH
In short term, the growth
rate of Rural market now
surpasses that of Urban
market.
LIQUID DETERGENT
is the most
outstanding category.
MODERN TRADE
channels remain to grow
ahead of the market at
double digit pace.
Amazon acquired
Whole Foods: Is there
any impact on the
grocery market?
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
31. 3
KEY INDICATORS
Vietnam economy sees positive improvements in Quarter 2, compared to the same period last year and the quarter 1.
However, the GDP growth of the 1st half just reached 5.73%, which forces the rest of the year to grow higher than 7%
- a big challenge to fulfill.
+4.15%
YTD June’17 vs. YA
+6.17%
Q2’17 vs. YA
+10.2%
YTD June’17 vs. YA
+1.72% +9.8%
YTD June’16 vs. YA YTD June’16 vs. YA
+5.55%
Q2’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP
Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods
32. 2.8
3.3
0.7
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.8 7.3
4.8 3.54.9
2.3
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Both Urban and Rural market grow at the same pace. The
growth is mainly driven by the paid price increase. In short
term, though the FMCG market slows down in Quarter 2, the
growth rate of Rural now surpasses that of Urban 4 cities.
3.3
5.2
2.0
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
1.7
0.2
4.4
2.9
4.9
1.9
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
One year ending Q2’17
33. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-4
-5
7
2
4
0
10
7
5
5
7
4
14
10
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Despite the market slowdown in short term, non Food sector continues enjoying impressive growth and growing faster than
Food sector in both Urban 4 cities and Rural. Dairy and Packaged Foods are the only sector showing negative performance in
Urban and Rural respectively. Within these sectors, big categories (high value contribution to total FMCG) such as Milk Powder
(Urban), Fish Sauce, Cooking Aids, Instant Noodle (Rural) have been dropped volume consumption in this quarter.
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
Q2’17 versus year ago
10
10
-2
-6
16
9
34. 6
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel & Family Form | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL
HOT CATEGORY
Liquid Detergent is the most outstanding category among Home Care sector. The category is doing well in terms of both attracting
more new shoppers and also increasing volume consumption. Is this led by the rising washing machine ownership which now
accounts for 83% (+4.5 percentage points versus year ago) in Urban 4 cities and 28% (+4.0 percentage points versus year ago)
in Rural Vietnam? These numbers show huge potential to tap into this market.
+7.9%
Liquid Detergent
Volume growth
+39% vs YA
25%of Urban households
(+ 3.5 pts vs YA)
6% of Rural households
(+ 1.6 pts vs YA)
260ml / week
(+23% vs YA)
% Buyers
Volume
per buyer
% Buyers
Volume
per buyer
430ml / week
(+17% vs YA)
Volume growth
+66% vs YA
Q2’17 versus year ago
35. MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
26
10
7
13
3
7
33
28
10
7
12
3
7
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
67
17
2 5
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
VALUE CHANGE % (Q2’17 versus year ago)
5% 5% 5% = 22% 22% 5% 5%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
Q2’16
Q2’17Urban
4 cities Rural
2% 11%
Modern Trade channels remain to grow ahead of the market at double digit pace in Urban areas thanks to gaining more traffics.
Most of key retailers in Hyper & Supermarket are recovering. With a good performance during the first 6 months, modern retail is
expected to keep its momentum and achieve greater growth by the end of 2017.
10
67
15
2
6
36. SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Amazon Acquired Whole Foods: Is there any impact on the grocery market?
Top 10 Implications
Source: Kantar Retail
1.
AMPLIFICATION
2.
DEMOCRATIZATION
3.
CREDIBILITY
4.
OPTIMIZATION
5.
NON-FOODS
6.
DATA
7.
INTERNATIONAL
8.
CHOICE
9.
COUNTERBID?
10.
COST
8
37. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 28 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
38.
39. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
An uncertainty to keep
CPI in the safe zone
(under +4%) for the
remaining months.
FMCG
GROWTH
The market growth is
mainly driven by the
increase of average paid
price.
Convenient dairy
products outperform.
Modern, specialized and
convenient formats
continue gaining in both
Urban and Rural.
A shift to healthy and
convenient offers!
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
Doi hinh
40. 3
KEY INDICATORS
The average CPI during the first 7 months is now controlled under +4%, but there is uncertainty to keep it in the safe
zone for the remaining months as food price index posts an increase in July (after falling in 6 months) and the oil price
is projected to rise. The growth of retail consumer goods, FDI, import and export are main driving forces of the
economic improvement in the latest quarter.
+3.91%
YTD July’17 vs. YA
+6.17%
Q2’17 vs. YA
+10.0%
YTD July’17 vs. YA
+1.82% +9.7%
YTD July’16 vs. YA YTD July’16 vs. YA
+5.55%
Q2’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods5.22
2.52
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
6.17
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17
41. 3.3
3.4
0.3
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
12w/eP7'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.5 6.94.6 3.54.8
1.9
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
The increase of average paid price (~same with the CPI
rate) is the driving force of the market growth. In short term,
there is no change in volume consumption, and even a slight
decline in Rural area due to the decrease of central Rural.
3.9
2.6
(1.0)
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
12w/eP7'17
1.8 0.4
4.4
2.8
5.0
1.9
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
One year ending P7’17
42. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-4
-5
9
4
3
-1
10
5
0
-1
5
0
14
9
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
The sharp decline of Dairy and Packaged Foods in terms of consumption is driven by the north and central areas while the
south performance is much better. Some Beverage categories slow down, some even decline but Beer is the key driver of the
weak performance in Beverage sector. Meanwhile, Home Care is the only sector showing a good volume growth, consumers
are stretching their consumption of Home Care products.
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
12 w/e P7’17 versus year ago
9
9
-3
-6
11
3
43. 6
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift *Ready-to-drink growing up milk powder among households with kids <4YO
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL
HOT CATEGORY
Despite of the downtrend in Dairy sector, dairy products meeting the increasing demand of convenience still outperform in both
Urban 4 cities and Rural market. Beside the opportunity to develop consumer base, another direction worth considering for these
categories to drive further growth is to create higher volume consumption.
12 w/e P7’17 versus year ago
Volume Growth
% Buyer
Volume/buyer
+18%
17%
(+2.1 pts vs YA)
1.4 pack
per week
+22%
16%
1.2L
per week
Volume Growth
% Buyer
Volume/buyer
+42%
0.8L
per week
+8%
52%
Cheese RTD GUM* Liquid Milk RTD GUM*
(~70% Urban’s
consumption)
1.0L
per week
20%
(+4.7 pts vs YA)
44. 10
67
16
2 2 5
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
26
10
7
13
3
7
33
28
10
7
13
3
7
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
67
17
2 6
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift
VALUE CHANGE % (12 w/e P7’17 versus year ago)
5% 3% 14% = 22% 18% 2% 6%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
12 w/e P7’16
12 w/e P7’17Urban
4 cities Rural
1% 6%
Modern Trade still maintains its growth momentum in Urban, posting a rise of 10%, contributed by the rapid expansion of
Ministores and Online channel coupled with the continued rebound of Hypermarkets and Supermarkets since late 2016. In
Rural, shoppers keep moving toward upgraded shopping channels with strong growth of Medium-sized street shops and
Specialty stores.
45. 8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
A shift to healthy and convenient offers
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities | Total FMCG excluding Gift
Products or categories “not good for health” and “not convenient” are seeing buyer departure, losing more and more shoppers
to the better ones. Hence, innovation focusing on safe and natural ingredients or new formats ready for consumption should be
prioritized to be back to growth.
Growing up Milk Powder*
(% baby – Baby panel in Urban 2 cities)
Carbonated Soft DrinksReady-to-drink Tea
% Buyer – Rolling 52 weeks
Ready-to-drink Growing
up Milk*
(Among households with kids <4yo)
Fruit JuiceBottle Water
46. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
47.
48. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
The economy looks
brighter and is expected
to improve further in the
remaining months.
FMCG
GROWTH
The FMCG market is
showing an early signal
of rebound after low
season.
Soya Milk wins back
consumers’ choice.
Shopping places that offer
a diverse range of
product choices are
leading the market growth.
The importance of
Fresh Foods!
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
49. 3
KEY INDICATORS
CPI in August 2017 is higher than last month due to the rising price of oil and health services. However, the average
CPI in the first 8 months continues to be controlled under +4%. The Vietnam’s economy looks brighter despite
challenges and is expected to improve further in the remaining months.
+3.84%
YTD August’17 vs. YA
+6.17%
Q2’17 vs. YA
+10.3%
YTD August’17 vs. YA
+1.91% +9.7%
YTD August’16 vs. YA YTD August’16 vs. YA
+5.55%
Q2’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods5.22
3.35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
6.17
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17
50. 3.0
3.8
1.0
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
12w/eP7'17
12w/eP8'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.9 7.5
4.1 3.04.7
1.7
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
In short term, volume consumption picks up slightly in
Urban 4 cities market and has been improved in Rural
after falling into the 2017’s lowest growth. The market is
showing an early signal of rebound after low season.
3.9
3.3
(0.3)
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
12w/eP7'17
12w/eP8'17
2.3 1.1
4.3
2.4
4.9
2.1
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift |
12 weeks period ending 13 August 2017
One year ending P8’17
51. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-4
-6
11
7
5
1
10
6
-3
-2
12
5
16
10
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Volume consumption plays a driving role in sector performance. While Beverage is getting its momentum back, non Food
sectors continue to shine bright, Dairy and Packaged Foods still post negative growth in this period. Consumers have recently
reduced consumption in cooking aids, are they changing their cooking habit? Or spending more on eating out?
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 13 August 2017
12 w/e P8’17 versus year ago
7
6
-4
-6
9
2
52. 6
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 13 August 2017
HOT CATEGORY
After a downturn in 2016, Soya Milk has recovered in both Urban 4 cities and Rural since the beginning of this year
thanks to winning back consumers’ choice. Some key players aggressively pour cash into promotion heating up the
market again, does it drive the category healing? And how far Soya Milk can grow amidst the tendency towards adopting
more nutrition products?
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL
+7.9%
Soya Milk
Volume growth
+21% vs YA
23%of Urban households
(+ 4.2 pts vs YA)
35% of Rural households
(+ 4.6 pts vs YA)
539ml/ week
% Buyers
Volume
per buyer
% Buyers
Volume
per buyer
466ml / week
Volume growth
+18% vs YA
12 w/e P8’17 versus year ago
53. 10
67
16
2 2 4
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
26
10
7
13
4
7
34
28
10
7
13
3
7
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
67
17
12 4
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 13 August 2017
VALUE CHANGE % (12 w/e P8’17 versus year ago)
5% 3% 15% = 21% 18% 3% 1%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
12 w/e P8’16
12 w/e P8’17Urban
4 cities Rural
0% 7%
In Urban 4 key cities, modern formats keep outgrowing traditional channels. Interestingly, Specialty Stores especially
selling drinks and personal care items now lead the growth of traditional trade. It seems to meet individual needs
consumers are heading more toward shopping places that offer a diverse range of product choices.
54. 8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Fresh Food Panel | Urban 4 key cities (500 households) | Updated to Q2’17 vs Q2’16 * Number in bracket () is spending growth per buyer versus year ago
Fresh Food Basket Share – Top 5
19% (+48%)
14% (+11%)
12% (+33%)
12% (+38%)
11% (+21%)
On average,
urban household spends
~1,100,000 vnd
a week on Fresh Food,
triple
FMCG spending
Fish
The importance of Fresh Foods!
Fresh Foods still represent the biggest spending in consumers’ wallet, however we are seeing changes in Fresh Food basket.
Consumers now allocate more to fruits, vegetables and white meat (sea foods, fishes). Health concern may influence their
shopping behavior not only in FMCG but also in Fresh Foods. Hence, prioritizing consumers’ wellbeing should be considered in
order to drive further growth.
Spending growth +17%
55. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
56.
57. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
Vietnam economy
improves, boosted by
the strong performance
of the wholesale & retail
and export.
FMCG
GROWTH
Urban 4 cities market
picks up while Rural
consumption sees an
uncertainty to rebound.
RTD Tea gains back
buyers in Urban,
Household Cleaner
continues expanding
consumer base in
Rural.
Specialty stores and
modern channels keep
up their momentum.
Biscuits: Hot season is
coming!
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
58. 3
KEY INDICATORS
CPI September remains stable, the average CPI of 9 months is kept under +4%. Vietnam economy continues to
improve, hitting the highest growth rate over the last 2 years, boosted by the strong performance of the wholesale &
retail and export.
+3.79%
YTD September’17 vs. YA
+7.46%
Q3’17 vs. YA
+10.5%
YTD September’17 vs. YA
+2.07% +9.5%
YTD September’16 vs. YA YTD September’16 vs. YA
+6.40%
Q3’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods5.22
3.40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
7.46
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17
59. 2.8
5.3
2.6
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.9 7.6
3.5 2.2
4.7
1.8
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
In short term, Urban 4 cities market picks up while Rural
consumption sees an uncertainty to rebound from the
economic difficulties in 2016. In long term, however, both
Urban and Rural market growth observe an upturn
though consumption still grows lowlier than last year.
3.4
2.5
(0.4)
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
2.8 1.5
4.1
2.3
5.2
2.2
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift |
12 weeks period ending 10 September 2017
One year ending Q3’17
60. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-4
-5
16
12
6
1
12
7
-4
-4
8
4
17
12
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Dairy has not shown any sign of healing due to the continued downturn of Milk Powder for kids. Meanwhile, Beverages bounce
back, leading the Urban growth and Home Care continues shining in Rural. Packaged Foods remain weak performance
especially in Rural areas, mainly driven by the gradual shrink of consumer base and volume consumption in necessities like
Cooking Oil, Fish Sauce and Instant Noodle.
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 10 September 2017
Q3’17 versus year ago
7
6
-2
-5
9
2
61. 6
* Household cleaner: Floor Cleaner, Bathroom & Toilet Cleaner, Small Surface Cleaner.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 10 September 2017
HOT CATEGORY
In Urban, ready-to-drink tea has been gaining back buyers and also seeing an improved consumption since Tet 2017,
largely pushed by the recovery of some key players. Yet, striving to innovate to catch up consumer trends is still needed
to sustain and develop the category further. In Rural, household cleaner continues recruiting new buyers, partly
attributed to rising hygiene awareness along with better living conditions.
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL
+7.9%
Q3’17 versus year ago
RTD Tea Household Cleaner*
Volume growth
+19%
Volume growth
+ 2.2 points
432ml/ week
+ 2.8 points
125ml/ week
% Buyers
22% of Urban Households
Volume
per buyer
% Buyers
25% of Rural Households
Volume
per buyer
+20%
62. 9
66
17
2 2 4
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
26
10
8
13
4
7
34
28
10
7
13
3
6
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
67
16
22 5
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 10 September 2017
VALUE CHANGE % (Q3’17 versus year ago)
6% 2% 21% = 18% 18% 1% 4%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
Q3’16
Q3’17Urban
4 cities Rural
2% 11%
Specialty stores and modern channels keep up their momentum in Urban market. Some H&S retailers are performing
very well and ministores continuously attract lots of new shoppers. Meanwhile, Rural shoppers keep moving towards
upgraded channels but surprisingly wet market gets growth back thanks to the South region.
63. 8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Biscuits including Gifting for In-home consumption | 52 weeks period ending 10 September 2017
Biscuits: Hot season is coming!
Biscuits have achieved outstanding growth for recent years, mostly driven by Tet season where one third of total Biscuits sales
were earned from. With its strong momentum, the category is forecasted to continue enjoying double digit growth in Tet 2018.
And in order to leverage further Tet’s success, businesses should plan well for not only Tet season but also post Tet period
which seems to double value of a normal month.
5.2 4.9
9.8 12.4
31.8
33.5
6.0
5.1
Urban 4 cities Rural
Pre-Tet month
Tet* month
Post-Tet month
Average normal month
Monthly value sales contribution in a year ending Sep 17
*Tet month: 4 weeks before the 1st day of Lunar New Year
Tet 2017
One year ending
Sep 17 versus
year ago
+13% +19%
+17% +31%
Forecast Tet 2018 10-15%
Urban 4
cities Rural
Value Growth of Biscuits
64. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
65.
66. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
Vietnam economy is
showing positive signals
in the rest months and
seems to be able to reach
the 2017’s target of 6.5%.
FMCG
GROWTH
Overall, both Urban and
Rural market would be
more likely to swell up in
the last months.
Home care products
offering convenience
and hygiene are on the
rise.
Modern shopping formats
keep riding the Urban
growth while upgraded
street shops remain a
magnet to Rural
consumers.
Beer market: A star
performer!
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
67. 3
KEY INDICATORS
Vietnam economy is showing positive signals in the rest months with the improved domestic demand, the rebound of
agricultural production and the continued increase of Export, FDI and Retail. The GDP growth accelerated in the third
quarter to above 7% and is forecasted to keep growing at this pace for the last quarter. The Vietnam’s economic
growth seems to be able to reach the 2017’s target of 6.5% by the end of the year.
+3.71%
YTD October’17 vs. YA
+7.46%
Q3’17 vs. YA
+10.6%
YTD October’17 vs. YA
+2.27% +9.3%
YTD October’16 vs. YA YTD October’16 vs. YA
+6.40%
Q3’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods5.22
2.98
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
7.46
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17
68. 2.6
4.7
2.2
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
12w/eP10'17
4
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.6 7.5
2.3 0.8
4.5
1.2
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Urban 4 cities FMCG market maintains stable growth.
Rural FMCG market is seeing positive movements
though its consumption still recovers slowly. Overall,
both Urban and Rural market would be more likely to
swell up in the last months.
3.3
2.7
(0.4)
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
12w/eP10'17
2.7 1.8
4.8
2.6
5.1
2.2
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift |
12 weeks period ending 08 October 2017
YTD P10’17
69. 5
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
-5
-5
17
13
4
1
11
6
-1
-1
6
3
14
8
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
The continued development of non-food categories in both Urban 4 cities and Rural is attributable to the rising trends of
convenience and hygiene such as Box Tissue, Liquid Detergent, Hand Wash, etc.… Meanwhile, Beverages achieve a
remarkable growth in Urban 4 cities market, mostly driven by the strong performance of Beer and refreshment drinks.
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 08 October 2017
12 w/e P10’17 versus year ago
6
3
-3
-5
13
3
70. 6
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 08 October 2017
HOT CATEGORIES
Products helping improve the Vietnamese’s quality of life are on the rise. Consumers care more about hygiene amidst
the rising levels of environmental pollution and diseases. Urban citizens upgrade their consumption for hygiene
products while Rural people are more familiar with the goods to keep everything around them cleaner.
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL12w/e P10’17 versus year ago
+28% +22% 10%
+24% +12% 25%
+8% +8% 14%
Box Tissue
Volume
growth
Volume/buyer
growth
% Buyers
Floor Cleaner
Hand Washing
+37%+3.6 pts15%
+11%+2.0 pts11%
+7%+3.3 pts52%
Floor Cleaner
Volume
growth
Incremental
buyers
% Buyers
Toilet Tissue
Insecticide
71. 10
66
16
2 2 4
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
34
25
10
8
13
4
7
34
27
10
7
12
3
7
7
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
68
16
22 5
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 08 October 2017
VALUE CHANGE % (12 w/e P10’17 versus year ago)
5% 3% 13% = 26% 19% 1% 7%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
12 w/e P10’16
12 w/e P10’17Urban
4 cities Rural
1% 10%
Modern shopping formats keep riding the Urban market growth, 2017 seems to be the stunning year of the retail market as a
result of lots of M&A deals and foreign investments in recent times. Specialty stores continue expanding in terms of share
thanks to the shoppers’ spending uplift. Meanwhile, in Rural, upgraded street shops remain a magnet to Rural consumers. And
wet market is still growing back, driven by non food sectors.
72. 8
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Biscuits including Gifting | 52 weeks period ending 08 October 2017 (MAT P10’17)
Beer market: A star performer!
Beer is the key driver of Beverage growth, achieving a great performance thanks to the up-trading trend as consumers are now heading
more towards premium beer products. For in-home purchases, Tet has been playing an important role to total Beer revenue in a year and
is projected to keep up the pace in Tet 2018. In order to win this hot season, innovation in gift packaging or gift sets should get more
attention, especially in Urban because more than half of total Tet value sales has earned via gifting.
*Tet month: 4 weeks before the 1st day of Lunar New Year
29.5
31.0
33.1
MAT P10'15 MAT P10'16 MAT P10'17
Value Growth Average paid price per liter (000 vnd)
+15%
21.6
22.8
24.4
MAT P10'15 MAT P10'16 MAT P10'17+13%
Urban4citiesRural
Tet contribution in a year (Tet’17 - %value share)
+23% vs Tet’16 +29% vs Tet’16
4 times bigger vs
avg. normal month
5 times bigger vs
avg. normal month
Gifting
56%
+26% vs YA
Gifting
39%
+59% vs YA
24% 27%
% Share of total Tet value sales
Forecast
Tet 2018
+20-25%
Urban 4 cities Rural
73. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel
74.
75. 1 2 3 4 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
KEY
INDICATORS
Vietnam’s economy sees
positive outlook, coupled
with the stable CPI.
FMCG
GROWTH
Both Urban and Rural
FMCG market show good
movements.
Soft Drinks and Tonic
Food Drink liquid format
perform well in Urban
and Rural respectively.
Modern Trade maintains a
healthy growth.
Promising Private
Label?
HOT
CATEGORY
RETAIL
LANDSCAPE
SPOTLIGHT
76. 4
KEY INDICATORS
Vietnam economy has seen positive performance since Quarter 3 of the year. Both total demand and total supply are
predicted to continue improving in the last quarter with the strong growth of consumer demand and export. The
average CPI of 11 months remains stable but the index in December is more likely to rise slightly due to the higher
demand for the festive period.
+3.61%
YTD November’17 vs. YA
+7.46%
Q3’17 vs. YA
+10.8%
YTD November’17 vs. YA
+2.47% +9.4%
YTD November’16 vs. YA YTD November’16 vs. YA
+6.40%
Q3’16 vs. YA
Source: GSO Vietnam
CPI GDP Retail Sales of
Consumer Goods
5.22
2.62
7.46
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17
77. 2.9
6.1
3.0
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
12w/eP10'17
12w/eP11'17
5
FMCG GROWTH
FMCG – 12 WEEKLY YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE (%)
Avg. Price paid* Value Volume**% change
Urban
4 Cities
Rural
8.1 6.5
3.2 1.7
4.6
1.6
*: To calculate FMCG price paid change, we calculate how much price contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA
**: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up
these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Urban FMCG market keeps showing good movement.
Meanwhile, in Rural, the market is improving slowly despite
the impact of disasters in the last two months. Vietnam’s
positive economic outlook and growing domestic demand
are expected to boost the growth of FMCG market by the
end of 2017.
2.9
3.5
0.8
-5
0
5
10
Q1'15
Q2'15
Q3'15
Q4'15
Q1'16
Q2'16
Q3'16
Q4'16
Q1'17
Q2'17
Q3'17
12w/eP10'17
12w/eP11'17
2.9 1.7
4.3
2.3
5.4
2.3
2015 vs YA 2016 vs YA 2017 vs YA
Value Growth% Volume Growth%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift |
12 weeks period ending 05 November 2017
One year ending P11’17
78. 6
DAIRY BEVERAGES HOME CARE
Urban
4 cities
Rural
FMCG GROWTH BY SECTOR
Non-food sectors keep up their momentum, especially personal care categories. Beverage is now back to lead the growth
of Urban market while Dairy shows a slight increase in Rural partly thanks to milk-based products such as cup yogurt and
cream dessert. However, Dairy in Urban and Packaged Foods in Rural are still suffering from the drop of volume
consumption.
Value change% Volume* change%
PACKAGED FOODS PERSONAL CARE
*: To calculate FMCG volume change, we calculate how much volume contributes to the value change for each category, sum up these contributions and relate to value YA (this results in an average category change in volume)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 05 November 2017
12 w/e P11’17 versus year ago
-6
2
-5
1
21
4
17
2
4
-2
1
-3
18
15
8
8
4
11
0
5
79. 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
P11'15 P1'16 P11'16 P1'17 P11'17
CSD Energy Drink% Buyers – Rolling 12 w/e
7
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 05 November 2017
HOT CATEGORY
In Urban, Carbonated soft drinks (CSD) and Energy drinks have been returning to recruit buyers since the beginning of 2017, mostly
driven by the market leaders. In Rural, Tonic Food Drink liquid format are developing very well. The category not only expands buyer
base but also uplifts consumption. Its success is attributed to the widening distribution network in every corner of Rural areas.
URBAN 4 CITIES RURAL12 w/e P11’17 versus year ago
Soft Drinks Volume growth
+19%
% Buyers
Volume/ buyer
growth
+3.2pts +8%
Liquid
Tonic Food DrinkVolume growth
+51%
% BuyersVolume/ buyer
growth
+2.4pts+26%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
P11'15 P11'16 P11'17
% Buyer Volume per buyerRolling 12 w/e
55% of Urban households 16% of Rural households
80. 10
66
16
2 2 4
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
33
26
10
8
13
4
7
33
27
10
7
13
3
6
8
RETAIL LANDSCAPE
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
8
69
15
12 4
VALUE SHARE %
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift | 12 weeks period ending 05 November 2017
VALUE CHANGE % (12 w/e P11’17 versus year ago)
6% 1% 18% = 23% 20% 2% 10%
MEDIUM-SIZED
STREET SHOPS
SMALL
STREET SHOPS
WET
MARKET
SPECIALTY
STORES
HYPERMARKET &
SUPERMARKET
MINIMARKET/
CVS
OTHERS
12 w/e P11’16
12 w/e P11’17Urban
4 cities Rural
0% 9%
Modern Trade maintains healthy growth from brick-and-mortar stores (both big and small formats) to online channel. On top of
that, Minimarkets, Convenience stores and online shopping are getting more and more shopper’s familiarity and gaining more
ground in Urban market. While a fifth of Rural shoppers now shops in medium-sized street shops for a larger range of products
and choices, which seems a good sign for further expansion of this channel in Rural.
81. 9
SPOTLIGHT OF THE MONTH
Source: Kantar Worldpanel | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities Vietnam | 52 weeks period ending 05 November 2017 (MAT P11’17) | HH: Households
Promising Private Label?
While Private label accounts for 20-30% of total retail sales in US or EU markets, it still has limited development in Vietnam mainly due to
the underdeveloped Modern Trade, the lack of diversified product offers and the effective communication. However, with the rise of
smaller modern shopping formats and more investment from “giant” retailers, would it be able to leverage Private label further?
63%
30%
7%
Home Care
Packaged Food
Others
23%
23%
21%
20%
19%
17%
17%
16%
16%
15%
Toilet Tissue
Box Tissue
Table Napkins
Loose Leaf Tea
Floor Cleaner
Liquid Detergent
Frozen Food
Dishwashing Liquid
Powder Detergent
Cooking Oil
113
114
Mid-low HH income
(7.5-13.5 mln/month)
High HH income
(>20 mln/month)
HH 5 members
HH 6+ members
Value share
2.4%
in Modern Trade
% Buyer
39%
of Modern Trade
buyers
Share by sector
in total PL
Private label Top 10 categories
(Based on % Private Label Buyers within category)
How do Private Label buyers look like?
% Private label buyer index vs total FMCG
106
109
82. Kantar Worldpanel is the global expert in shoppers’ behavior.
Through continuous monitoring, advanced analytics and tailored
solutions, Kantar Worldpanel inspires successful decisions by brand
owners, retailers, market analysts and government organizations
globally.
With over 60 years’ experience, a team of 3,500, and services
covering 60 countries directly or through partners, Kantar Worldpanel
turns purchase behavior into competitive advantage in markets as
diverse as FMCG, impulse products, fashion, baby,
telecommunications and entertainment, among many others.
For further information, please visit us at
www.kantarworldpanel.com.vn
Contact us
Nguyen Thi Nhu Ngoc
Associate Marketing Manager
Email: nhungoc.nguyenthi@kantarworldpanel.com
Tel: +84 8 39306631 | Mob: +84 (0)988 445 401
Kantar Worldpanel Vietnam | 58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh
City, Vietnam
About Kantar Worldpanel