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Managingtomorrow’s people*The future of work to 2020*connectedthinking
ContentsIntroduction 02 Small is beautiful: welcome to the Orange World 182020: where three worlds co-exist 04 The journey to Orange 18 Life in the Orange World: the main themes 19Corporate is king:welcome to the Blue World 06 Work in the Orange World: the people challenges 21The journey to Blue 06 The Orange HR business model 22Life in the Blue World: the main themes 07Work in the Blue World: the people challenges 09 Are you ready for tomorrow’s world? 25The Blue HR business model 10 Appendix 27Companies care: Definitions: Scenarios, Millenials 27welcome to the Green World 12 Our methodology 28The journey to Green 12 Global forces 29Life in the Green World: the main themes 13 PwC Graduate Survey findings 30Work in the Green World:the people challenges 15 Contacts 32The Green HR business model 16
Foreword 01The journey to 2020 about the future of people management. Our team hasAt the beginning of 2007, a team from identified three possible ‘worlds’PricewaterhouseCoopers gathered to explore the – plausible futures to provide afuture of people management. Our thinking was context in which to examine thesparked by the rising profile of people issues on way organisations might operatethe business agenda – the talent crisis, an ageing in the future. In addition we surveyed almost 3,000workforce in the western world, the increase in Managing tomorrow’s people Foreword MillennialsA1 – new graduates from the US, Chinaglobal worker mobility and the organisational and and the UK who represent a generation just joiningcultural issues emerging from the dramatic pace of the workforce, to test their views and expectationsbusiness change in the past decade. We wanted on the future of work.to explore how these issues might evolve and howorganisations need to adapt to stay successful. We hope you will help us to encourage debateMany studies have attempted to capture a vision around this critical topic. It is said that the future isof the workplace of the future, but we set out to not a place we go to, but one which we create. Andunderstand the people challenges that will impact while things happen that we cannot predict, we canorganisations and consequently the implications still be prepared.this will have on the HR function as we know it.Few business thinkers have proposed that themarketing or finance functions might cease to existin their present forms, but some are starting to saythis about HR. Michael RendellWith the help of the James Martin Institute for Partner and leader of Human Resource ServicesScience and Civilisation at the Said Business PricewaterhouseCoopers LLPSchool in Oxford, we used ScenariosA1 to thinkA1 – Appendix 1, see appendix page 27
02 Introduction 2,739 When we started our research we had some preconceived ideas about tomorrow’s world. Many • large corporates turning into mini-states and taking on a prominent role in society In July 2007, 2,739 graduates studies have been undertaken to explore the future • specialisation creating the rise of collaborativefrom China, the US and the UK of society, the environment, business and even the networks told us about their workplace. Our challenge was to focus explicitlyexpectations of work. They had on the business context and the impact on people • the environmental agenda forcing fundamental all been offered jobs with PwC and work. changes to business strategy. but had yet to start. Some of While we cannot claim to have identified all thethe key findings are highlighted possibilities, several strong themes have emerged: 2. People management will present one throughout this report of the greatest business challenges While some of the findings 1. Business models will change Businesses currently grapple with the realities of seem to confirm current dramatically skills shortages, managing people through change received thinking about the and creating an effective workforce. By 2020, the future of work, a number of The pace of change in the next decade will be radical change in business models will mean themes defy conventional even more fundamental. Technology, globalisation, companies facing issues such as: thinking. demographics and other factors will influence organisational structures and cultures. Our • the boundary between work and home life PwC is the biggest recruiter disappearing as companies assume greater scenarios outline three organisational models of the of graduates in the UK and responsibility for the social welfare of their future: a leading global recruiter employees of graduates. A3 A3 – Appendix 3, see appendix for a full breakdown of the findings page 30
03 3. The role of HR will undergo “HR needs to fundamental change ensure it is fit for HR has been perceived by many as a passive, purpose in order service oriented function, but given the context of tomorrow’s workplace and business environment, to be proactive we believe HR is at a crossroads and will go one of and maintain or Managing tomorrow’s people Introduction three ways: develop its • with a proactive mindset and focused on influence in the business strategy, HR will become the heart of the organisation taking on a new wider people future.” remit incorporating and influencing many other Keith Murdoch, aspects of the business Remuneration and • the function will become the driver of the Benefits Manager, corporate social responsibility agenda within the British American Tobacco organisation• stringent people measurement techniques to control and monitor productivity and • the function will be seen as transactional and performance almost entirely outsourced. In this scenario, HR will exist in a new form outside the organisation• the rise in importance of social capital and and in house HR will be predominantly focused relationships as the drivers of business success. on people sourcing.
04 2020: Where three worlds co-exist We believe it We identified a number of global forces that will have significant influenceA2, and of those we felt is possible that all that individualism versus collectivism and corporate three worlds will integration versus fragmentation would be the most significant. From this axis we identified three worlds co-exist in some and business models for the future. form, perhaps (See figure 1 opposite.) distinct by We tried to capture the events and trends which geographic region, draw a picture of life in tomorrow’s world and the people management challenges that might prevail. or industry sector The forecasting timelines and world descriptions for example. are not intended to be taken literally as complete visions of alternative futures. They are designed to present ideas and illustrate the more important points around the people management challenges. We believe it is likely that all three worlds will co-exist in some form, perhaps distinct by geographic region, or industry sector for example. As you read this document think about how your own organisation might be positioned within these scenarios and what implications this has upon your current people management strategy. A2 – Appendix 2, see appendix page 28
Figure 1 2020: three worlds Managing tomorrow’s people Introduction 05
Corporate is king: the Blue worldWhere big company capitalismreigns supremeIn a nutshell:The globalisers take centre stage, consumer preference dominates,a corporate career separates the haves from the have nots. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020 The Indian World’s biggest The brain-drain of A decade of M&A Global warming economy expands search engine and Eastern European consolidation changes the dramatically as largest technology workers starts to across industry climate of Europe; it goes through company merge reverse as workers sectors peaks as the snow on the a new wave of return home Alps melts, skiers cross-border to set up and head to the US acquisition sprees lead corporates, and becomes a building on global leader in expertise gained several industry in several sectors sectors
0790% Corporates divide the haves and “Our search for have nots talent is now aof Chinese respondents expect The power of corporations means that a much global search.they will use a language at work greater divide has opened up between those The competition working for global corporations and thoseother than their mother tongue working in smaller enterprises. Employees of for talent will only Managing tomorrow’s people Blue World mega-corporations have everything they need laid increase further.”Size matters on. Those working for smaller businesses remain at the whim of housing markets and basic statutory Hanspeter HorschThe sheer size of corporations in 2020 means entitlements, needing to self-supplement Associate Director,that a significant number now operate with annual educational support, health and insurance Human Resourcesturnovers that far exceed the GDP of many coverage, what remains of the public health Samsung Semiconductorindividual countries, particularly in the developing system, and so on. Europe GmbHworld. With echoes of the business modelspromoted by companies like General Motors in themiddle of the last century, many companies now Welcome to the technology ageprovide the equivalent of the welfare state for their Technology is all pervasive, entire cities in theemployees to ensure they lock the best talent into US, Japan and the UK operate with ubiquitoustheir organisations. Internally managed service high-speed wireless networks that allow allcentres are sophisticated and highly efficient – commercial transactions, entertainment andusing processes perfected by the outsourcers of communications to be handled by every individualthe ‘nineties. People metrics become an essential on credit card-sized devices. Pinpointing exactlypart of everyday life to keep track of individual what you want and being shown where it isperformance and productivity. available from wherever you happen to be is now taken for granted, allowing businesses continuously to refine and individualise their relationships with consumers, employees and shareholders.
08 75% Corporates drive lifestyle choices • Mass consolidation has had an impact on cultural issues. Leadership teams now have a Sophisticated measurement and segmentation high focus on the evolution of the corporate of respondents strategies mean companies can target goods and culture with rigorous recruitment processes to think that workplace services across their customer base and to ensure new employees fit the corporate ideal. employees. For example ‘green politics’ is seen as flexibility will not a lifestyle choice rather than a meaningful political Existing staff are subject to compulsory corporate culture learning and development exist; they believe movement. Corporations provide environmental programmes. products and services to those who express a they will be working preference. • Huge people costs drive the need for robust formal office hours metrics and analysis. Employee engagement, performance and productivity are all measured Managing people in the Blue World systematically. Leadership can access people • Companies have become the key provider of data on a daily basis. This also provides an early services to employees. People management warning signal of non-corporate behaviour or now encompasses many different aspects of below standard performance. employees lives’, often including housing, health • Technology pervades every realm of business and even education for their children. and leisure activity. The line between inside • This strategy has led to an increase in staff work and outside work is often blurred by retention rates as people policies seek to lock in technology with employers providing the talent, but the top talent is still hard to attract platform. This also provides employers with and retain, many senior executives use personal added insights to staff preferences. agents to seek out the best deals.
Who leads people Organisational Employee profile 09strategy? challenges• The Chief People Officer (CPO) is a powerful • Quality assurance across the globe drives • People are graded and profiled at the age of and influential figure, sometimes known as the need to create consistency across the 16 and categorised for work suitability both the ‘Head of People and Performance’ who organisational supply chain. in terms of capability and individual sits on the leadership board. preference. • The challenges of size and scale mean that• Metrics and data are used to drive business these organisations are at greater risk from • The top talent is highly prized and fought performance through complex staff external threats such as technology over. In most cases people are linked to an segmentation strategies which identify terrorism or meltdown and they find it organisation by the age of 18. Managing tomorrow’s people Blue World thousands of skills sets – creating precision difficult to effect change quickly. • University education is managed by the around sourcing the right candidates for the • As companies try to reinforce corporate company according to the organisational right tasks as well as on the job performance values, these can often be at odds with career path chosen by the individual. measurement and assessment. cultural values and can present challenges. • At the top level, employees take far greater• The science of human capital has developed • Organisations must develop models and control of their careers; often senior to such a degree that the connection systems designed and run by HR executives have their own personal agents between people and performance is professionals which enable individuals and who represent them to find the best roles explicitly demonstrated by the CPO. their agents to negotiate the value of their and deals.• As organisations increase in size, their risk human capital based on employees’ • Lower level employees are also taking management systems are similarly extended. personal investment strategies. active charge of their careers; they are• The people risk agenda is one which is taken aware of the value that their human capital seriously by the board – as a result, the CPO represents and are demanding about the and HR business partners become more circumstances in which they will invest. influential. • Those outside the corporate sphere find• Those responsible for people management employment choices are limited to smaller increasingly need financial, analytical, companies that are unable to provide the marketing and risk management skills to same level of development and financial measure the impact of the human capital in benefits. their organisation and to attract and retain the best talent.
10 A people management model for the Blue World In the Blue World where corporate is king, the people and performance model below is the closest to what many leading companies are aspiring to today – linking HR interventions to improvements in business performance and using more sophisticated human capital metrics to evaluate corporate activity. Under this scenario the management of people and performance becomes a hard business discipline, at least equal in standing to finance in the corporate hierarchy. Human resources: the current model People and performance: the 2020 model Figure 2
11 Future viewExtract froma newspaper in 2016People metrics are integral toanalysts’ pricing strategies WORLD FINANCIAL NEWS 3rd April 2016 NEWS IN BRIEF Managing tomorrow’s people Blue World Italian pharmaceutical The quarterly report generating a much giant Como saw its will be looked at improved return on shares climb higher closely by companies human capital. yesterday in inside the industry and expectation of positive beyond. Many credit Mr Fabrizzi said, “You news in its quarterly Como’s unusually have to measure the results due next week. rapid rise and things you attach value The company, now dominance of parts of to. Measuring the worth an estimated the sector to the way performance of our € 20bn has profited CEO Mario Fabrizzi people has allowed from the success of its manages the us to quickly make new line of statins in organisation’s human improvements to any Europe and America, capital, which the underperforming part but also in China, the company also reports of the business, to fastest growing on in detail. Last year make effective plans pharmaceutical market earnings per employee for succession and to globally. rose by 7% while costs return real value to our per employee fell 5%, shareholders.”
Companies care: the Green WorldWhere consumers and employeesforce changeIn a nutshell:Companies develop a powerful social conscience and green sense ofresponsibility. Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentialsas a top priority. Society and business see their agenda align. 2010 2012 2013 2018 2020 The UK launches The US signs the India becomes a Hybrid or fully A group of the London Kyoto II agreement key player in the electric cars scientists confirm Carbon Trading and becomes a corporate social outnumber that the rate of Exchange leading advocate responsibility petrol-powered global warming for actions to agenda with a cars is slowing reduce the rate of focus on global warming preserving the Indian culture and heritage
1394% components of the supply chain through vertical integration. Rigid contractual obligations are in “We are place covering every eventuality. developing anof respondents believe they will employer brandwork across geographic borders How green are you? reflecting ourmore than their parents did. The audit process and quarterly company reports identity as an Managing tomorrow’s people Green World are characterised by a focus on measuringConsumers drive corporate behaviour employer and greenness detailing carbon emissions ratings, andThe environmental lobby is so pervasive that carbon exchange activity, as well as the more promoting ourcompanies must be quick to react to consumer traditional company valuations. This is an indication long term of the importance shareholders and investors placeconcerns about any aspect of their business which on these issues which are reflected in the share commitmentcould be deemed unethical. Clear communicationand clarity about products and services is essential. price. with our employees.”Supply chain control Big corporate fines Hughes Fourault,Companies have strong control over their supplier In the business world ethical behaviour is the most Global Head ofnetworks to ensure that corporate ethical values important attribute to attain and preserve. Brands Compensation, Benefitsare upheld across the supply chain, and be able to can rise and fall on the basis of perceived green and International Mobility,troubleshoot when things go wrong. This has led to credentials, with government imposed corporate Société Généralmany organisations taking greater ownership of key fines for bad behaviour in this highly regulated world. Corporate responsibility is not an altruistic nice to have, but a business imperative.
14 90% Managing people in the Green World • New graduates look for employers with strong of US respondents environmental and social credentials; inwill actively seek out response HR departments play a key role in developing the corporate social responsibility employers whose programme. corporate • Employees are expected to uphold corporate responsibility values and targets around the green agenda. Most are given carbon credit tokens which are behaviour reflects Working across teams in different locations used like ration books to be cashed in for therefore presents enormous challenges to their own. printing documents in hard copy, company global businesses, and the HR function travel and other anti-societal activities. dedicates significant energy to generating virtual • The HR function is renamed ‘People and social networks across the operation and the Society’, the leader being a senior member of client base. the company’s executive team. • Most companies provide staff with corporate • The need to travel to meet clients and transportation options between work and home colleagues is replaced with technological to minimise the need for car use. This has led to solutions which reduce the need for face-time. many companies choosing to relocate parts of Air travel in particular is only permitted in their operation to where people are based and exceptional circumstances and is expensive. out of big cities.
Who leads people Organisational Employee profile 15strategy? challenges• The CEO drives the people strategy • Quality assurance and vigilance to • The common belief is that employees for the organisation, believing that the minimise risk is paramount. choose employers who appear to people in the organisation and their match their beliefs and values. The • The greatest threat to businesses in behaviours and role in society have a reality is that the talent pool for the this scenario is the possibility of direct link to the organisation’s brightest and best remains non-socially responsible behaviour success or failure. competitive, and whilst CSR rankings either within the organisation or in any are a factor, the overall incentive Managing tomorrow’s people Green World• The CEO works closely with the Head part of its supply chain. package remains all important. of People and Society (HPS) who, • Organisations operate in a highly Incentives however are not just with a team comprising a mix of HR, regulated world, where employment reward-related; for example, they marketing, corporate social law makes it difficult to lay people off include paid secondments to work responsibility and data specialists, in line with market fluctuations. They for social projects and needy causes drives the social responsibility struggle to monitor everything across – a popular trend post-2010. programme. the operation to be compliant with the • Because organisations adopt a more• Employment law drives responsible ethical ideal for which they strive. But holistic approach to developing employer behaviour and forces the being compliant is not enough: their people, including personal HPS to develop innovative solutions in organisations are under pressure to development and measuring the times of downturn – such as sending raise the bar and establish policies impact they have on the wider world, employees on secondments to other and practices which go beyond employees are more engaged and as organisations where they can develop regulatory requirements. The danger a result are often likely to have a job their skills and contribute to the wider in such a regulated world is that for life. society, bringing employees back in companies are so preoccupied with when the economic environment compliance policies that the ability to improves. The HPS is therefore a be flexible and explore new well-networked individual. opportunities is hampered.
16 A people management model for the Green World In the Green World where companies care, corporate responsibility (CR) is good. The CR agenda is fused with people management. As society becomes a convert to the sustainable living movement, the people management function is forced to embrace sustainability as part of its people engagement and talent management agendas. Under this scenario successful companies must engage with society across a broader footprint. Communities, customers and contractors all become equal stakeholders along with employees and shareholders. Human resources: the current model People and society: the 2020 model Figure 3
17 Future viewExtract from G-Bankoperating review Sustainable business report G- BANKIn 2020, it is a legal requirementthat companies disclose their G-BANK recognises its statutory responsibilities under theenvironmental activity. This also Climate Change Act 2015, Ecosystem Change Act 2016,acts as a key differentiator when and all other sustainability legislation. We have been active Managing tomorrow’s people Green Worldrecruiting and retaining talent. participants in the International Business Panel on Climate Change since it was established in 2010. The group has adopted the European allowed G-Bank to retain its status as Sustainable and Responsible a AA+ company within the S&P Corporations guidance and has sustainability index. comprehensive company-wide policies Key environmental data is provided on sustainability, energy and climate below change, and responsible procurement. We require all suppliers to be certified Key Environmental Statistics 2020 2019 as carbon balanced and eco-friendly. Energy use – properties During 2020 G-Bank made further Total energy consumption – Gw 1,015 1,200 changes in its energy providers in 25 Energy consumption/FTE – Kw 0.10 0.13 countries, so that 95% of our total Renewables as a 95% 91% energy consumption now comes from % of total energy consumption renewable sources. Our extensive use of videophone technology and virtual CO2 emissions – properties meeting software means that business CO2 – kilotonnes 21.0 21.8 travel has reduced by 75% over the CO2 – tonnes/FTE 0.21 0.23 past five years. In the last quarter of the year our Business travel environmental auditors completed their Total travel-related CO2 – kilotonnes 1.0 1.9 annual sustainability audit and issued Travel-related CO2 0.01 0.02 an unqualified opinion. This has per FTE – tonnes/FTE
Small is beautiful: the Orange WorldWhere big is bad, for business, for people and for theenvironmentIn a nutshell:Global businesses fragment, localism prevails, technology empowers alow impact, high-tech business model. Networks prosper while largecompanies fall. 2009 2010 2012 2014 2020 Facebook global Skill shortages Record number 71% of Europeans The California membership push up wages in of corporate shop at local Gaming Guild reaches 1 billion China, switching demergers and farmers markets, achieves record people the balance of spin-offs popularity of pay deal for its power to the supermarkets in 7 Star rated individual away steep decline contractors from the collective
190.6% Complex supply chains “Diversity is a Supply chains are built from complex, organic huge challenge,Only 0.6% of UK respondents associations of specialist providers, varying greatly but also a greatthink that they will mainly work from region to region and market to market. The opportunity. solution is now not to outsource, but to fragment.from home Looser, less tightly regulated clusters of companies Getting diversity Managing tomorrow’s people Orange World are seen to work more effectively. Often functionsA free economy are picked up on a task by task basis by ‘garage’ right will be aTrade barriers come down creating a truly free operations, with each transaction bought and sold critical future by the second on one of a number of electronicmarket economy and countries such as China success factor trading platforms, with local and global exchanges.quickly realise that without embracing full for us.”free-market forces they will be unable to compete. Millennials drive technology use Peter Johann Director Global HRNetworks are key The millennial generation, comfortable with technology, is driving the usage of technology as ManagementThe dream of a single global village has been BASF the interaction with services, government and work,replaced by a global network of linked, but with an emphasis on choice and anti-monopolyseparate and much smaller communities. The thinking encouraging innovations in this area.exponential rise in the efficiency of online systemsfor buying, selling and trading services and skillshas debunked completely the old orthodoxy thateconomies arise from scale. Businesses are muchsmaller and roles are more fluid.
20 11.5% Labour market enters the guild era • Employees are usually aligned to guilds and access opportunities through professional In a tightening labour market individuals develop portals provided by guild networks – work of Chinese female portfolio careers, working on a short-term, can be bought, sold and traded in this way. respondents expect contractual basis. They join craft guilds which Employment contracts are flexible to manage career opportunities, provide training and to have more than development opportunities. accommodate staff churn and a rapid turnaround.ten employers during • Workers are categorised and rewarded for their career Managing people in the Orange World having specialist expertise; this has created • Organisations recognise that their employees increased demand for workers to have a and the relationships they have across their personal stake in the organisation’s success networks are the foundation of company with direct ownership share schemes and success. Companies seek to promote and project delivery-related bonuses becoming sustain people networks. This is achieved the norm. through incentivising employees around • Recruitment has become largely a sourcing achieving connectivity goals and collaborative function and has been merged with the behaviours. management of the huge number of contracts • As guilds become more important, they take on and price agreements required for each many of the responsibilities previously assumed company’s network of partner organisations. by employers including sourcing talent, medical insurance and pensions, development and training.
Who leads people Organisational Employee profile 21strategy? challenges• People strategy is replaced with • Organisations are heavily reliant on • The responsibility for skills sourcing strategy, as maintaining the their external networks to deliver what development shifts wholesale to optimum supply chain of people is they need, and a combination of individuals. key to this networked world. watertight contractual agreements • People are more likely to see combined with a healthy degree of• The People Sourcing Director liaises themselves as members of a business trust is imperative. with expertise networks and guilds to particular skill or professional network Managing tomorrow’s people Orange World attract what they need for the best • When a part of the network breaks than as an employee of a particular price. down, the smaller size of company. organisations means they are able to • Employees rely on achieving high flex and adapt quickly to change. But scoring ‘eBay’ style ratings of past job the flip side of this means that the performance to land the next lack of company infrastructure and contract. resources to deal with sudden problems can be a challenge • Specialisation is highly prized and workers seek to develop the most • There is also a strong emphasis on sought after specialist skills to technology to support the supply command the biggest reward chain and to develop social capital package. and collaboration.
22 A people management model for the Orange World Our third world is in many ways the most radical. In this world, economies are comprised primarily of a vibrant middle market, full of small companies, contractors and portfolio workers. People management is about ensuring these small companies have the people resources they need to function competitively. This allows an important role to be carved out for HR, one where the people supply chain is a critical component of the business and is strategically led by the HR function. But the flip side is that this could also see in-house HR becoming a sourcing or procurement function, with the high-end people development aspects of HR being managed externally by guilds. Current model Operational model in 2020 Figure 4
23 Future viewExtract fromemployment networkingsite in 2020In the Orange World, Workbook,an employment networking site,is used as a key route for people Managing tomorrow’s people Orange Worldto find jobs, host their workexperience and join networks
24 Summary A summary of Blue World Green World Orange World the people Resourcing Long careers and career Holistic whole company Short-term careers. Lots of and planning. Succession plans for approach to manpower planning. contracting. HR strongly focused management Succession key performers. on filling fixed-term vacancies. characteristics Talent Strong performance focus Broad definition of talent. Minimal – key players in the in 2020 Management across all levels. Top talent have Competencies focus. central ‘core’ only, but liaison personal agents. with external agents crucial Employee Engagement around Engagement around work-life Short-term engagement around Engagement performance and performance balance and social responsibility. projects. metrics. Heavy promotion of corporate culture attributes and behaviours. Reward and Strongly performance-related. Focus on total reward over Contract based-pay for projects. Performance Pay for performance. Highly career life-time. Individual stake in projects as structured according to role incentive for contractors. segmentation. Learning and Begins at school. Focus on skills Holistic approach to learning Minimal provision in house. Skills Development for the job – metrics driven. – much provided in-house. training via new crafts guilds. But secondments and paid sabbaticals for worthy causes are common Table 1
Are you ready for tomorrow’s world? 25What will the world look like in 2020 – Blue, Green, “HR will continueOrange or something else entirely? We believe it ishighly plausible that all three organisational models to increase itsdescribed in this report will feature in tomorrow’s alignment toworld, sometime or somewhere and to some the business, Managing tomorrow’s people Are you ready for tomorrow’s worldextent. We already see some multinationals headingin the direction of the Blue World business model. with greaterThe energy industry has been demonstrating accountability forelements of the Green World for some time. Wefirmly believe that, as the CSR and sustainability delivering specific The world of work is going to become even more corporateagenda grows many other industries (and complex. Our message is: take a long hard lookgeographies) will take on characteristics of the at your organisation models and current people objectives. Thisgreen business model, for example the retail andmanufacturing sectors. Consumer preference will management strategies; how are you addressing will result in a reward, international mobility, employeehave a huge impact when it comes to the green engagement, development and learning? Think greater need foragenda. about how these might change in the future and HR to quantifyThe Orange World in some ways represents the whether or not the strategy you currently have in itself in respect ofmost radical departure. Will big business find place is future proof, is sustainable, sufficient anditself outflanked by a vibrant, innovative and relevant for the plausible worlds of tomorrow. how we deliverentrepreneurial middle market? Will the work The survey we conducted is clearly representative against theexpectations of the millenials be such that portfoliolives will become far more pervasive? Will some of only a part of the millennial generation. But what bottom line. ... truly surprised us is the desire in this group forlarger organisations introduce internal markets and stability and regularity in a changing world. Manyformal networks in place of old style hierarchies to people said they expect to work regular hours, fromcreate structures where agility, speed and flexibility the office or on location, and would have onlyare key to success?
26 ...We will also need between two and five employers in a lifetime. But How can organisations plan for the equally let’s not ignore the Chinese women in our to prepare ourselves future of people management? sample who expected far more flexibility and to for a new generation have at least ten employers in a lifetime – perhaps these might be workers for the Orange World of the entering the market future. place. A significantly Our final message is to the HR function itself. We more mobile believe there is a significant opportunity for the HR generation with function to really own the people management agenda within organisations, to truly drive strategydiffering expectations and have the tools and information to become one from an employer, of the most powerful and influential parts of the and we will need to business operation. But – and yes there is a but – we can also see that complacency and a failure byadapt to reflect this.” HR to take the lead could result in the function Michael Poulten being outsourced almost entirely, or absorbed by Personnel Manager line managers or into other functions such as Reward and Benefits finance or marketing. The fate of HR as a function Tesco Stores hangs in the balance. The challenge for HR is to figure out how to make itself relevant for tomorrow’s world. Figure 5
27 AppendixA1 DefinitionScenarios MillenialsWe worked with the James Martin Institute for Wikipedia says ‘The Millenials’ are also known as:Science and Civilisation at the Said Business ‘Generation Y – a term used to describe someoneSchool in Oxford to think about the factors that born immediately after Generation X…one of Managing tomorrow’s people Appendixcurrently affect business and those which we several terms (also including The Internetbelieve will grow in importance in the future. We Generation) used to identify the same group. Theremapped these around a matrix and developed a is much dispute as to the exact range of birth yearsnumber of scenarios: plausible futures around each. that constitutes Generation Y and the MillennialsThe result was the three worlds which we describe and whether these terms are specific to Northin this report. Shell famously used scenarios to help America, the Anglophone world, or peoplethem to predict the Middle East oil crisis in 1973. worldwide.’The process can help organisations think differently For the purposes of this document, we refer toabout the future and plan for the inevitable ‘Millennials’ as those who entered the workforcesurprises. after 1 July 2000.
28 A2 2020: our methodology Scenarios Our scenario planning exercise revealed that individualism, collectivism, corporate integration and business fragmentation would be the most significant factors affecting global business for the purposes of our study. We aligned these along two axes, around which we developed our scenarios further. We call these ‘worlds’. We began with four worlds: yellow, red, blue and green, with the yellow and red worlds straddling the top half of the We started our research by examining the forces quadrant. In these fragmented worlds we that currently affect global business and are likely discovered through our analysis that the differences to have significant impact on the future. Clearly across individualism and collectivism were hard to there are many social, environmental, religious and define in the fragmented world. Both of these demographic factors that will have significant worlds relied upon networks to survive, were, small, influence but we felt that some of these issues have nimble and adaptable. The motivations were the been tackled extensively in other studies. We chose only variant factor where the red world was more to focus on a number of potentially conflicting self-serving than the collective altruism of the factors which we feel have the greatest impact on yellow world. We decided therefore to combine our subject matter – people management. Initially these themes to create a single orange world which we explored the following eight forces: (see represented the fragmented business model. diagram opposite).
Figure 6 Global forces Managing tomorrow’s people Appendix 29
30 A3 PwC graduate survey findings In July 2007, 2,739 Total China US UK graduates from China, the UK and Do you believe you will work across Yes 93.9% 97.2% 92.1% 92.9% geographic borders more than your the US were polled parents did? No 6.1% 2.8% 7.9% 7.1% about their Do you envisage using a language other Yes 52.7% 89.4% 32% 35.3% expectations of than your first language at work? work. They had all No 47.2% 10.4% 68% 64.7% been offered jobs Will you deliberately seek to work for Yes 86.9% 87.2% 90.2% 71.2% at PwC but had yet employers whose corporate responsibility to start. behaviour reflects your own values? No 13% 12.6% 9.6% 28.8% A mix of Do you think you’ll work...? 74% 75.7% 71.8% 79% locations Mainly from 4.6 7.4% 3.8% 0.6% home Mainly in an 21.2% 16.7% 24.3% 20.4% office Not answered 0.1% 0.1% 0% 0%
31 Total China US UK Mainly flexibleDo you think your office hours will 13.9% 17.6% 12.9% 7.4% hoursbe…? Mainly regular 11% 7.1% 14.0% 10.0% office hours Managing tomorrow’s people Appendix Regular office 75% 75.1% 73.1% 82.5% hours Not answered 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0%How many employers do you think 1 8% 9% 8% 7.4%you will have in your career? 2-5 78.4% 74.4% 80.4% 79.6% 6-9 7.9% 6.3% 8.5% 9.7% 10+ 5.5% 10.3% 3.2% 2.6% Not answered 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6%
32 Acknowledgements Contact There were numerous people involved in this Michael Rendell project both within and outside Partner and leader of Human Resource Services PricewaterhouseCoopers. Our particular thanks to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (UK) Angela Wilkinson and team at the James Martin +44 (0) 20 721 24945 Institute and to all the companies who shared their email@example.com views and insights. Sandy Pepper Our thanks to the core project team: Sandy Pepper, Partner/Project leader Cecilia Nordqvist, Matthew Blakstad, Leyla Yildirim, Human Resource Services Rachael Davison, Andrew Smith, Jackie Gittins, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (UK) Sonja Jones and the rest of the team who took part +44 (0) 20 721 34948 in the scenarios workshop. We would also like to firstname.lastname@example.org thank Sivaramakrishnan Balasubramanian, Indrani Rana (India), Svetlana Kruglova (Russia), Shinya Karen Vander Linde Leader, People and Change Yamamoto (Japan), Steve Rimmer (US) and many PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (US) other contributors from across our global network +1 (703) 918 3271 of PricewaterhouseCoopers firms. Our final email@example.com acknowledgement goes to our internal human capital teams around the world who helped us to Leyla Yildirim conduct the graduate survey. Marketing Human Resource Services PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (CI) +44 (0) 1481 75 2039 firstname.lastname@example.org
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