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Office of the Chief Economist
Rob Johansson
Chief Economist USDA
FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security
and Nutrition
Washingto...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Meeting the SDG #2 of ending hunger, achieving food
security an...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
…Challenges
3
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Challenges facing food and agriculture over the next 10 years
1...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Example -- Water stress by country in 2040
5
https://www.scienc...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Challenges posed by economic shocks
6
https://www.ft.com/conten...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Meeting those challenges…
> Macroeconomic
> Productivity
> Trad...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
3.00
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4.50
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Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
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1956
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Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
…Technology
10
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
As in the past, we will depend on productivity growth, fueled b...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Real prices trend down, as crop production outstrips demand
12
...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Real prices trend down, as U.S. livestock production outstrips ...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Technology will change in many different ways over the next 20 ...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Global Area of Biotech Crops, 2017: Country areas (Million Hect...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Growth in trade…
16
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Especially for emerging and developing markets, higher trade gr...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Global ag imports have more than doubled over past 15 years….
U...
Office of the Chief Economist
 Significant growth in RTAs since 1995
 WTO monitoring 291 RTAs in force
(Jan. 2019)
 Mos...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
…potential challenges from changing consumer preferences and
tr...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
“Middle Class” in middle income countries could reach 874 milli...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
22
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Share of US Expo...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
China per capita GDP leads the way, with other regions followin...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
2013 meat consumption per capita and GDP per capita
0
20
40
60
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Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Growth in meat and dairy consumption, kg per capita
0
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Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
0
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1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 20...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2028, Februar...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Technology comes in different flavors
28
https://www.agri-pulse...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
…USDAInternational Food Security Projections
29
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Global 2019/20 production and consumption at near-record or
rec...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
USDA international Food Security Assessment (IFSA)
• Prepared b...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
32
2018 IFSA: Incomes expected to rise, grain prices to decline...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Growing economies with access to growing supplies and falling r...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
… and the total food gap will fall (2018 report).
0
5
10
15
20
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Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
35
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2
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6
8
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ECOWAS Rice Imports
2013
2014
2015
201...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Conclusion 1 – so far, productivity growth keeping up with dema...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Conclusion 2 - percent of population that is food insecure to p...
Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist
Conclusion 3 – Role of technology in addressing food security
•...
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2019 The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World: Safeguarding Against Economic Slowdowns and Downturns

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Robert Johansson
SPECIAL EVENT
Discussion on the Key Findings of FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report
Co-Organized by FAO North America and IFPRI
JUL 18, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT

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2019 The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World: Safeguarding Against Economic Slowdowns and Downturns

  1. 1. Office of the Chief Economist Rob Johansson Chief Economist USDA FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition Washington, DC (July 18, 2019) 1
  2. 2. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Meeting the SDG #2 of ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture 2
  3. 3. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist …Challenges 3
  4. 4. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Challenges facing food and agriculture over the next 10 years 1. Growing population 2. Changing climate 3. Resource constraints 4 https://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl d/australias-historic-heatwave- continues-as-temperatures-stay- above-40c-a4042376.html https://www.newscientist.com/article/2164238- five-billion-people-face-water-shortages-by- 2050-warns-un/ https://unequalscenes.com/mumbai
  5. 5. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Example -- Water stress by country in 2040 5 https://www.sciencenews.org/article/future-will-people-have-enough-water-live
  6. 6. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Challenges posed by economic shocks 6 https://www.ft.com/content/45eb1800-e228-11e6-8405-9e5580d6e5fb
  7. 7. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Meeting those challenges… > Macroeconomic > Productivity > Trade 7
  8. 8. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 April 2018 forecast October 2018 forecast April 2019 forecast Percent change Growth forecasts less optimistic --- global purchasing power falls by $1.7 trillion (cumulative from 2019 – 2022) World GDP 8 Data: IMF 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 April 2018 forecast October 2018 forecast April 2019 Forecast Percent change Emerging Markets and Developing Countries
  9. 9. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 Billionpeople Developed Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa and Middle East East Asia South and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Oceania Growth Rate World population continues to grow, though slowing 9 Data: UN (2017)
  10. 10. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist …Technology 10
  11. 11. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist As in the past, we will depend on productivity growth, fueled by new technologies 11 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 TFP Output Input US, Index: Year 1961 = 1.00 Anhydrous ammonia injection becomes predominant No-till starts to become popular Robotic milking introduced Satellites used for precision ag Big data applications Weed and pest resistant biotech First automated irrigation system field tested Consumer- focused biotech traits Drought tolerant biotech Source: USDA-OCE using data from USDA-ERS
  12. 12. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Real prices trend down, as crop production outstrips demand 12 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Real Crop Prices Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat 2005 = 100 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 World Crop Production Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat Data: USDA, BLS 2005=100 Corn price down 59% since 1960, soybeans by 52%, rice by 70%, and wheat by 65%. Corn output has risen 435% since 1960, soybeans by 1,190%, rice by 225%, and wheat by 215%.
  13. 13. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Real prices trend down, as U.S. livestock production outstrips demand 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Real U.S Livestock, Poultry, and Milk Prices Steers Chicken Milk Hogs 0 30 60 90 120 150 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 U.S. Meat and Milk Production Beef Chicken Pork Milk Data: USDA, BLS 2005=100 2005=100 Steer price down 44% since 1960, hogs by 68%, milk by 52%, and chicken by 56% (from 1964). Beef output has risen 87% since 1960, pork by 143%, milk by 77%, and chicken by 1,050%. 13
  14. 14. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Technology will change in many different ways over the next 20 years 14
  15. 15. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Global Area of Biotech Crops, 2017: Country areas (Million Hectares) Regional proportions 10 Latin American, 8 Asia Pacific, 2 North American, 2 EU, and 2 African countries 46% 10% 1.5% 0.5% 42% Regional proportions vary significantly
  16. 16. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Growth in trade… 16
  17. 17. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Especially for emerging and developing markets, higher trade growth translates into higher economic growth 17 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 Percent Real GDP growth Real trade growth Note: 2019-2024 are IMF forecasts Source: World Economic Outlook Database, International Monetary Fund, April, 2019 Asian financial crisis, 1998-99, quickly followed by Russia, Argentina, and Brazil debt problems. Uruguay round of trade negotiations, sponsored by GATT, end (1994), tariffs are cut, and WTO established (1995). 127 of 130 GATT members join WTO. NAFTA begins in 1994. Doha round of trade negotiations begin in 2001, but fizzle. Meanwhile, 33 countries (notably China and Russia), join the WTO. Bilateral trade agreements proliferate. Global financial crisis, 2008-10 ends the strongest global growth spurt since at least the 1950’s. Both trade and growth stagnate.
  18. 18. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Global ag imports have more than doubled over past 15 years…. US $118 b Canada $34 b Mexico $27 b EU $130 b Japan $52 b China $118 b ROW $342 b Global ag imports (2017) $821 billion (incl. U.S.) Data: Global Trade Atlas; EU imports exclude intra-EU trade 18 US $41 b Canada $13 b Mexico $11 b EU $57 b Japan $31 bChina $11 b ROW $87 b Global ag imports (2002) $251 billion (incl. U.S.) 10x increase
  19. 19. Office of the Chief Economist  Significant growth in RTAs since 1995  WTO monitoring 291 RTAs in force (Jan. 2019)  Most are FTAs (~90%)  Trans-oceanic FTAs (i.e., EU-Japan, CPTPP) make up nearly 50% of agreements Figure 1, Competitive FTA Report Regional Trade Agreements Growth of Regional Trade Agreements 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NumberofAgreementsorMembers CU FTA PSA Cross-Regional GATT/WTO Members Source: Authors tabulations from WTO Regional Trade Agreement Information system, available at: http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicMaintainRTAHome.aspx Source: Grant and Peterson (2019; Virginia Tech University)
  20. 20. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist …potential challenges from changing consumer preferences and trade patterns 20
  21. 21. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist “Middle Class” in middle income countries could reach 874 million households by 2026, up 71% from 2016 levels 1 4 2 1 7 6 2 5 7 6 6 7 28 150 151 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Colombia Vietnam Malaysia Taiwan Philippines Thailand South Korea Turkey Egypt Brazil Mexico Russia Indonesia India China Households w/ Real PPP incomes greater than $20,000 (millions) 2016 Proj. gains by 2026 Million Households Source: Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data as analyzed by OGA 21
  22. 22. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 22 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share of US Exports by Category (% of value) Consumer Oriented Total Bulk Total Intermediate Total Agricultural Related Products Exports of US Bulk Commodities Have Fallen as a Share of Total US Exports Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's Global Agricultural Trade System
  23. 23. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist China per capita GDP leads the way, with other regions following 23 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 India, 2017 Current USD Source: World Bank China, 2017
  24. 24. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 2013 meat consumption per capita and GDP per capita 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 50 100 150 Norway Switzerland Luxembourg Japan Argentina Australia United States China, Hong Kong India China Mainland Kg meat consumption per capita thousand2010USDpercapita Data: World Bank, OECD, FAO Source: Meyer (2019; University of Missouri)
  25. 25. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Growth in meat and dairy consumption, kg per capita 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 NigeriaIndiaUnited States China, Mainland Source: Meyer (2019; University of Missouri)
  26. 26. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 0 50 100 150 200 250 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 Global soybean meal feed demand: by regions, 50 years of growth Million metric tons EU North America Source: USDA FAS PS&D Data, April 2019. China Two Stories: • Growing global meat demand in emerging economies • Developed countries are stable Japan, S Korea, and Taiwan (below)
  27. 27. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Source: USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2028, February 2019. Developing economies driving projected increases in global meat imports
  28. 28. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Technology comes in different flavors 28 https://www.agri-pulse.com/articles/11982- aquabounty-can-start-making-selling-ge- salmon-in-us https://www.memphismeats.com/ 1. Biotech 2. Plant technology 3. Cell technology 4. Organic Tech 5. Robotics 6. Etc…. https://www.wsj.com/articles/farming- gets-high-tech-in-bid-to-offer-locally- grown-produce-1460576984 https://charleston.eater.com/2018/6/1/17418 706/impossible-burger-in-north-carolina https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604303/ apple-picking-robot-prepares-to-compete-for- farm-jobs/
  29. 29. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist …USDAInternational Food Security Projections 29
  30. 30. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Global 2019/20 production and consumption at near-record or record highs 300 400 500 600 700 800 MMT Production Consumption Wheat 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 MMT Production Consumption Corn 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 MMT Production Consumption Soybeans 30 Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, July 11, 2019
  31. 31. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist USDA international Food Security Assessment (IFSA) • Prepared by the Economic Research Service • The ERS international food security model projects food demand and access in 76 low- and middle-income countries—39 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 4 in North Africa, 11 in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 22 in Asia. • Projections of food gaps for the countries are based on differences between a nutritional target and estimates of food demand. • Demand projections are based on prices and incomes. • IFSA and SOFI have methodological and data differences • Next report to be released in August 2019 31
  32. 32. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 32 2018 IFSA: Incomes expected to rise, grain prices to decline between 2018-2028 Average real per capita incomes vary across regions and projected to rise in all regions - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Sub-Saharan Africa Asia North Africa LAC USdollars,peryear. 2018 2028 Per capita incomes by region, 2018 and 2028 World prices of grains projected to fall or remain stable 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 PriceinrealUSD/ton maize rice sorghum wheat SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean. Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2027, Long-term Projections report OCE-2018-1. Prices of major grains, 2018-2028 Source: USDA-ERS
  33. 33. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Growing economies with access to growing supplies and falling real food prices will see improved food security 2018 = 21.1% food insecure 2028 = 10.4% food insecure 33 Source: USDA-ERS [Compare to 11% percent undernourished in 2018 SOFI] Biggest percentage drop is for Asia
  34. 34. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist … and the total food gap will fall (2018 report). 0 5 10 15 20 25 Asia LAC North Africa SSA MillionMT* The food gap 2018 2028 LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean, SSA=SubSaharan Africa Source: USDA Economic Research Service Total food gap: 2018: 36 mil. tons per year 2028: 24 mil. tons per year • SSA’s total food gap was by far the highest among all regions (59% of total gap) with the slowest projected decline. • Asia’s food gap is projected to decline by 66 % over 2018 to 2028.
  35. 35. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist 35 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ECOWAS Rice Imports 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Actual MMT Source: USDA Long-term uncertainties due to (name a few): • Political and economic challenges in importers (e.g., Nigeria) • Weather • Energy prices • Disease • Policy changes in importing and exporting countries Imports in emerging economics up in long-term, but with much uncertainty
  36. 36. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Conclusion 1 – so far, productivity growth keeping up with demand • Increasing trade and productivity are needed to meet challenges of growing population and changing climate subject to resource constraints • To date, in aggregate, ag commodity production increases are meeting or exceeding demand, leading to falling real prices historically and projections of relatively flat prices • Projections are for continued long term global trade growth in agriculture commodities • Strong income growth in some developing countries and urbanization lead to increased import demand for grains and High Value Products • Higher trade growth translates into higher economic growth • Global ag imports have more than doubled over last 15 years 36
  37. 37. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Conclusion 2 - percent of population that is food insecure to projected to fall • Growing economies with access to growing supplies and falling real food prices will see improved food security • USDA estimates show the percent of the world population that is food insecure fall by half over 2018 to 2028 • But many uncertainties over projections of market impacts (eg.) • China ASF impacts and potential spread to other countries • Energy prices and costs of agriculture production • Policy changes by importers and exporters – especially, China and US • Biofuels production (policies and profitability) • Weather impacts, increasing severe weather events • Implications of increasing consumption and production of meat substitutes – both plant- based and animal cell culture technology 37
  38. 38. Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist Conclusion 3 – Role of technology in addressing food security • Productivity gains are fueled by new technologies, such as in biotechnology • Potential for biotechnology to • Help farmers increase yields while reducing yield variability • Produce environmental benefits - reduce use of pesticides • Provide poverty alleviation • The benefits of biotechnology to farmers and the poor will depend on the degree to which • Technological innovations address production and consumption constraints, and are affordable to farmers • Institutional and political barriers to its use are lowered 38

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