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Beyond the Pandemic: Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19

Johan Swinnen
GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT
GLOBAL LAUNCH EVENT - 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19
APR 13, 2021 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EDT

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Beyond the Pandemic: Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19

  1. 1. Johan Swinnen Director General International Food Policy Research Institute April 13, 2021 Beyond the Pandemic Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19
  2. 2. Tools and resources Agricultural Production and Stocks Monitor Visualizing production and stocks of key crops at global and country levels, with comparisons to levels during the 2008–2009 food price crisis. COVID-19 Food Price Monitor Providing daily updates of food price movements in wholesale and retail markets in key countries in South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara. COVID-19 Policy Response Portal Capturing policy responses to the pandemic, including population restrictions, social protection, trade, health, fiscal, and monetary measures. Food Trade Policy Tracker Monitoring restrictions on food exports and trade and their impacts on food imports. TOOLS
  3. 3. Source: FAO 2020; Fan et al 2021 12.6 8.6 8.9 9.8 825.6 628.9 687.8 841.4 400 500 600 700 800 900 8 10 12 14 16 18 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030** Millions Percentage Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide Prevalence of undernourishment (%) Number of people undernourished (million) The world is not on track to eliminate hunger and malnutrition
  4. 4. -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 GDP growth per capita (annual %) Low & middle income Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Bank 2020 Source: FAO 2020 Economic growth, conflict, and food security 12.6 8.6 8.9 9.8 825.6 628.9 687.8 841.4 400 500 600 700 800 900 8 10 12 14 16 18 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030** Millions Percentage Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide Prevalence of undernourishment (%) Number of people undernourished (million) Forcibly displaced people worldwide
  5. 5. 3 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet ▪2 billion people with micronutrient deficiencies ▪Child malnutrition ▪ Stunting, wasting and overweight at unacceptable levels Source: Heady et al 2020 Torero 2020.
  6. 6. Food system pressures planetary boundaries Climate change reinforces this 4 6 2 8 1 1 14 5 11 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Energy consumption (%) GHG emissions (%) Share of global total (%) Retail and food preparation Processing and distribution Fisheries production Livestock production Cropping production Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019 The global food system consumes >30% of energy and produces >20% of GHG emissions
  7. 7. COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition Impact on Global NUTRITION Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020 148 79 42 20% 23% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 40 80 120 160 World Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Increase no. of poor (millions) % increase poverty (RHS) Impact on Global POVERTY
  8. 8. Prabhat Kumar Verma / Shutterstock.com Poor people are disproportionately affected 1. Main asset is physical labor 2. Large share of income for food 3. More disruptions in food value chains – since more labor-intensive 4. More affected by disruptions of public social and nutrition programs 5. Less access to health services
  9. 9. 30.8 60.8 71.7 20.8 44.2 69.2 Poorest Middle Richest Jan-Feb May 50 26.7 27.5 Poorest Middle Richest COVID-19 impacts on inequality in food systems Survey results from Ethiopia Poor people suffer more from INCOME declines % of households that have much lower incomes Source: Hirvonen et al. 2020; Tesfaye et al. 2020. Poor people suffer more from NUTRITION effects % of households consuming dairy products
  10. 10. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban Atul Loke / Panos Pictures 13.3 16.7 12.2 12.6 16.8 10.7 14.0 16.5 15.0 Indonesia Ghana Nigeria Increase in POVERTY (% points – average per month of lockdown) National Rural Urban Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020. Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
  11. 11. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban Atul Loke / Panos Pictures 13.3 16.7 12.2 12.6 16.8 10.7 14.0 16.5 15.0 Indonesia Ghana Nigeria Increase in POVERTY (% points – average per month of lockdown) National Rural Urban Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020. -38% -18% -14% -29% -92% Total Agriculture Food services Changes in GDP (%), NIGERIA: 5-week lockdown
  12. 12. Gendered impacts of COVID-19 ▪ Health measures affect women and men differently in developing countries, particularly in rural areas ▪ Income shocks also have gendered impacts ▪ Impact on women’s empowerment and children’s schooling could affect female labor force participation in the next generation, also violence-related services Children ▪ 6.7 M (14.3%) more children with wasting (compared to no COVID-19 projections) ▪ Child mortality increased by 128,000 deaths (~10,000 more deaths/month) Women and children are especially vulnerable Source: Quisumbing et al. 2020; Hidrobo et al. 2020. Headey et al. 2020 Stockpexel / Shutterstock.com
  13. 13. Food supply chains disruptions Supply disruptions vs. income and job loss Survey evidence from Myanmar Respondent assessments of three largest impacts of COVID-19 on their household Source: IFPRI and MSU, 2020 Household income and job loss
  14. 14. i_am_zews / Shutterstock.com Atul Loke / Panos Pictures Restructuring supply chains and food systems ▪ Heterogeneity: ▪ global vs local ▪ labor vs capital intensity ▪ large vs small (SMEs) ▪ staples vs perishables ▪ Many innovations to overcome restrictions ▪ Organizational ▪ Technology : digital growth and e-commerce ▪ ….. Source: Reardon and Swinnen, 2020.
  15. 15. Sumit Saraswat / Shutterstock.com Beyond the Pandemic Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19 1. A transformative moment in history 2. Use lessons from crisis to transform food systems 3. Much creativity and innovation in value chains and food systems and policy-thinking to deal with crisis ▪ finance, digital, social protection, … 4. Use opportunity of global summits in 2021 5. Crucial role to play for public and private sectors

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