Early warning systems for global market shocks and for acute food insecurity
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Early warning systems for global market shocks and for acute food insecurity
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Rob Vos IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Facilitating Anticipatory Action with Improved Early Warning Guidance Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) SEP 26, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
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Early warning systems for global market shocks and for acute food insecurity
- 1. Early warning systems for global market shocks and for acute food insecurity Rob Vos IFPRI-AMIS Seminar, 26 September 2023
- 2. What is a food crisis? A food crisis occurs when rates of hunger and malnutrition rise sharply at local, national, or global levels…. A food crisis is usually set off by a shock to either supply or demand for food and often involves a sudden spike in food prices (Peter Timmer) 2 Did we have one in 2022 and/or 2023? • (Crisis-level) acute food insecurity on the rise… • … but at least since 2018 already • … further sharp increases in 2021 and 2022 • … also, possible increase in 2023 105 216 238 124 113 135 155 193 258 124 113 135 272 283 349 345 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 P MILLIONS People facing crisis-level or worse acute food insecurity (IPC3+) GRFC-48 GRFC WFP 48 COUNTRIES 51 COUNTRIES 53 COUNTRIES 55 COUNTRIES 55/79 COUNTRIES 53/81 COUNTRIES 48/58 /79 COUNTRIES 48/79 COUNTRIES
- 3. Early-warning, early-action systems provide alerts on potential food inform decision-makers
- 4. Early-warning, early-action systems provide alerts on crises and inform makers Increase their effectiveness ANTICIPATE: identifying risks (conflict, climate, economic) and potential impacts Real-time monitoring Better integration between food security and market early-warning systems
- 5. Anticipate - Early warning systems Identifying food crisis risks (drivers) • Conflict • Weather shocks • Economic shocks Assess (possible) food security impacts Early warnings Early action to mitigate and prevent
- 6. Need for better integration Agricultural market and food insecurity EWS disjointed How are global price shocks transmitted to local contexts? What structural vulnerabilities increase or mitigate their impact? Vos, Rob; Husain, Arif; Greb, Friederike; Läderach, Peter; and Rice, Brendan. 2023. Food crisis risk monitoring: Early warning for early action. In Global Food Policy Report 2023: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses. Chapter 2, Pp. 20-35. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294417_02
- 7. Real-time acute food insecurity monitoring Risk assessments need to be anticipatory Need continuous vulnerability assessments related to key drivers Stronger analytical frameworks to underpin “predictive models” to inform early action for mitigation, but especially for prevention