Presentation by David Spielman, Senior Research Fellow at IFPRI, on March 2, 2016 in Cairo, Egypt

1. Theme 3
Food Supply and
Natural Resources
David Spielman, IFPRI
Research Priority Setting Workshop
Egypt Strategy Support Program
MARCH 1, 2016 | CAIRO, EGYPT

2. Background & Rationale
• Complex challenges facing global efforts to produce food
and conserve natural resources
- Weather volatility, extreme climate events, and long-term climate
change
- Competition for land between farmers, consumers, bioenergy
producers, environmental initiatives
- Poor water management, increasing scarcity of water and water
degradation
- Advances in biological sciences vs. contested narratives around
food, science, and society
- Demographic pressures: rapid population growth, growing burden of
the elderly, large waves of migration, complex disease burdens
• How can governments design public policies and steer
public investments toward more equitable and sustainable
agriculture systems?

3. IFPRI Research Example: Pakistan
• Increasing water-use efficiency in irrigation in semi-arid
and arid areas
• In Pakistan, existence of Water User Associations increases
agricultural productivity by
• 10% for farmers at the tail of the watercourse
• 8% for those farmers who rely only on groundwater
• Significant potential for supporting informal ground and
surface water markets
• Some potential for reduced variability from upstream dams
Sources: Mekonnen, D., H. Channa and C. Ringler. 2015. The impact of water users' associations on the
productivity of irrigated agriculture in Pakistani Punjab. Water International 40(5-6): 733 – 747;. Yang, Y.C.E, C.
Ringler, C. Brown and A. Mondal. 2016 (under review). Modelling the agricultural water-energy-food nexus in the
Indus River of Pakistan.

4. IFPRI Research Example: Pakistan
• Seed Market Development Strategies
- Government of Pakistan seeks to increase regulatory control a
poorly regulated seed market while also encouraging private
sector entry with new seeds and traits.
Source: Spielman, D. J., H. Nazli, X. Ma, P. Zambrano, and F. Zaidi. 2015. Technological opportunity, regulatory
uncertainty, and the economics of Bt cotton in Pakistan. Agbioforum 18(1): 98–112.
• IFPRI’s contribution
– Evidence on the economic
costs of weak regulation
– Recommendations for
improved varietal
registration, seed
certification systems
– Recommendations for
improving biosafety and
intellectual property rights
regulations
95.5
50.3
85.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Rateofadoption(%)
Punjab
Sindh
Overall

5. IFPRI Research Example: Colombia
• Low Emission Development Strategies (LEDS) in Agriculture
- 2015: Government asked IFPRI to evaluate the potential contribution
of the Agriculture Forest and other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector to the
country’s plans to reduce greenhouse gas emission
Source: De Pinto, A., A. Haruna, M. Li, G. Hyman, B. Creamer, H.Y. Kwon, J. B.V. Garcia, A. Coca, J. Tapasco, J.D.
Martinez, J.D. Hoyos. 2016 (under review). Low Emission Development Strategies in Agriculture. An AFOLU Perspective.
• IFPRI’s contribution
– Built an analytical framework to
evaluate the economic viability of
strategies aiming at reducing emissions
– Approach identifies returns in terms of
net revenues, emissions, trade-offs
– Results indicate the role of Colombia’s
livestock sector in its LEDS
– Government used results to support
commitments made at COP21/Paris

6. IFPRI Research Example: India
• Equitable Targeting Strategies for Input Subsidies
- India’s government uses blanket subsidies on laser land
levelers to accelerate labor-saving mechanization, reduce
groundwater extraction, and generate popular support from
farmers
• IFPRI’s contribution
– Evidence on the
economic costs and
tradeoffs of
alternative subsidy
schemes
– Recommendations for
a better targeted and
commercially viable
subsidy reform
Uniform
Perfect
District
Landholdings
Poverty ID cards
first hour discount
100
150
200
250
300
350
100 150 200 250
Subsidycostperwatersaved
(Rs/m3'000)
Subsidy cost per farmer leveling (Rs/farmer)
Net gain for provider
Net loss for provider
Source: Lybbert, T.J., N. Magnan, D.J. Spielman, A. Bhargava, and K. Gulati. 2013. Targeting Technology to Reduce
Poverty and Conserve Resources: Experimental Delivery of Laser Land Leveling to Farmers in Uttar Pradesh, India.
Discussion Paper no. 1274. Washington, DC: IFPRI.

7. Is Egypt’s R&D spending sufficient?
2.3
2.1
2.5
2.7
6.7
7.1 7.1
8.4
6.6 6.4 6.3
6.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2009 2010 2011 2012
Constant(2011)US$PPPper100,000
farmers
Constant(2011)US$PPP
Algeria Egypt Turkey

8. Knowledge Gaps & Research Questions
• What are Egypt’s policy and investment options for
encouraging
- A long-term strategy for sustainable agriculture in world of scarcity
and degradation of surface and ground water, soil fertility, and
biodiversity?
- A climate-smart, low emissions growth strategy for the agriculture
sector that promotes efficient water, energy and land use?
- A dynamic and responsive innovation system in agriculture that relies
on both public and private contributions to science and technology?
• What are the costs, benefits, risks, and tradeoffs of
alternative technology solutions for sustainable agriculture?
- New seeds and traits
- New farming practices
- New approaches to natural resource management