CIFOR-IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food, Forests, and Landscapes - Solutions for Sustainable Development" with Shenggen Fan, IFPRI, Peter Holmgren, CIFOR, and Geeta Sethi, The World Bank.

1. Click to edit Master title style
Sustainable intensification
for food and nutrition security
Food, Forests, and Landscapes: Solutions for Sustainable Development
Washington, DC

2. Click to edit Master title styleKey messages
 Global burden of hunger, malnutrition, and
disease is high
 Challenges to natural resources and the
environment are large
 Sustainable intensification is critical for food
and nutrition security

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2012 Global Hunger Index
GHI components:
•Proportion of undernourished
•Prevalence of underweight in children
•Under-five mortality rate
Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012
50+ countries have serious / alarming /
extremely alarming levels of hunger

4. Click to edit Master title style2 bil. + people suffer from hidden hunger
Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies
Source: HarvestPlus 2011
Economic cost of malnutrition = $3.5 trillion or 5%
of global GDP
Zinc deficiency, S. Asia
Children <5: 79%
Iron deficiency, Africa
Children <5: 68%
Pregnant women: 57%
(FAO 2013)

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 In 2008
• Over 1.4 bil. adults overweight
• Over 500 mil. adults obese
 2.8 mil. deaths annually related to
overweight and obesity
 Overweight and obesity no more a
developed-country problem; in 2008
• Brazil, Mexico, South Africa:
50-70% of adults
• China: 25% of adults
Overweight and obesity are rising
Prevalence of overweight and obese children
under-five, 1990-2020 (%)
Source: de Onis, et al. 2010
Note: Asia excludes Japan; Developed Countries includes Japan
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Africa
Asia
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
Overweight and obese children to rise
by 43% in developing countries
(2010-2020)
Source: WHO 2013

6. Click to edit Master title styleGrowth is critical for nutrition
part of the SOLUTION and part of the PROBLEM
Growth improves nutrition
10% in GDP/capita is associated
with 6% in child stunting
Growth has unintended effects
on nutrition
10% in GDP/capita is associated
with 7% in women overweight & obesity
Source: Ruel et al. 2013
Note: Graphics by J. Vivalo (IFPRI)

7. Click to edit Master title styleCurrent / future challenges threaten food
and nutrition security
 Increasing population and urbanization
 Rising incomes and demand / diet changes
 Rising oil prices / biofuel expansion;
increasing volatility of food prices
 Growing natural resource constraints
 Climate change and higher frequency /
intensity of extreme weather events

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0
10
20
30
40
50 OECD
Developing countries
Source: Data from OECD-FAO 2012
GDP per capita (2005 $US in ‗000s)
Rising incomes will lead to
higher food demand and diet changes
Source: Data from ERS-USDA 2012
Change in consumption of agric.
products, 2009-11 to 2021 (%)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030
World
Developing Countries
Global food demand expected to rise 60% by 2050 (FAO 2012)

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
Land and water constraints are high
 24% of global land area affected by
degradation (1981–2003)
 Annual forest net loss = 5.2 mil. ha (2000-10)
 Arable land per capita
• 65% (1970-00)
• expected to further 50% by 2050
Annual loss of per capita arable land in
developing countries, 1961–2009
Source: FAO 2011; Nkonya et al. 2011
With ―business as usual,‖ high water stress by
2050 puts at risk globally
• 52% of population
• 49% of grain production
• 45% of GDP
Water stress for total renewable water
withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%)
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
Climate change will have adverse impacts
on agriculture
Total global production: -37.3%
Rainfed maize, 2080
Irrigated wheat, 2080
Total global production: -28.8% Source: IFPRI IMPACT 2011

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
Sustainable intensification is critical
Agriculture can
 Meet the world‘s growing and changing demand for food,
feed, fiber, and fuel
 Enhance nutrition and health
 Preserve the planet‘s natural resources
Well-designed sustainable intensification
strategy make possible
• meeting rising agric. demand from existing natural resources
• reducing negative environmental effects of increased agric.
production
• adaptation and mitigation of climate change

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
Sustainable world scenario assumptions
 High economic growth (3.58%); low population growth (0.35%)
 Additional investments in agricultural R&D
• Crop yield growth +90% from baseline (+27% from 2030)
• livestock yield growth +50% from baseline (+15% from 2030)
 Water use efficiency improvements by 2050 incl.
• 1.2% per year technological change in domestic and industrial sectors;
full access to safe drinking water
• Reduction in water demand (domestic = - 45%; industrial = - 43%;
irrigation = - 14.5%)
 UNFCCC‘s agreed limit of 2˚C temperature rise relative to pre-
industrial levels achieved
 Access to secondary schooling for all girls by 2030
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009; Nelson et al. 2010; IFPRI IMPACT 2012; UNEP 2012

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
2005 2030
Conventional
worlds
2050
Conventional
worlds
2030
Sustainable
worlds
2050
Sustainable
worlds
Area-weighted
grain prices,
$US / ton
150 202 253 160 154
Total crop
harvested area,
‘000 ha
1,520,811 1,684,198 1,689,758 1,569,207 1,489,230
Developing
country calorie
availability /
person / day
2,637 2,717 2,823 3,213 4,159
Malnourished
children
worldwide, mil.
153 136 115 78 50
Source: Adapted from UNEP 2012 with data from IMPACT model projections; Nelson et al. 2010
Notes: Conventional approach: business-as-usual; Sustainable approach: consideration for competing resource demands;
emphasis on water, land, & energy conservation through investments in technological innovation & higher resource-use efficiency
Selected indicators for conventional and sustainable world scenarios
IFPRI IMPACT Model
Sustainable intensification: Future scenarios

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
A nexus approach must be adopted
LAND WATER
FOOD
ENERGY
Source: Adapted from Hoff 2011
Food-land-water-energy
Agriculture-nutrition-health
Source: Adapted from A4NH 2012
A nexus approach can
minimize trade-offs and
promote sectoral synergies

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
Integrating sustainability and food
security
 Assessing natural resource impacts of food security
strategies; and vice versa
 Promoting resource-efficient technologies and practices
• E.g. solar-powered drip irrigation; slow-release fertilizers
 Promoting climate-smart agriculture
• Triple wins‖ - productivity, adaptation, mitigation
• E.g. Improved crop rotation with legumes; use of cover crops
 Reducing food waste and promoting healthy diet
• Tax unhealthy and unsustainable foods and support healthy and
sustainable food production
Source: Bryan et al. 2011; Burney et al 2009

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Shenggen Fan, June 2013
Integrating agriculture, nutrition, and
health
Biofortification
• Integration of nutrient-rich varieties, high-yielding, and stress-tolerant
crop varieties
• Orange sweet potato in Uganda—prevalence of Vitamin A deficiency
reduced by over 30% among children
Homestead food production program, Bangladesh
• Integration of home gardening, small livestock production, and nutrition
education
• Farmers‘ varieties more than doubled; production almost tripled; and
consumption of vegetables rose by 30%
One Health initiative
• Integration of human medicine, veterinary medicine, and environmental
science
Source: Hotz et al. 2012; Spielman et al 2009; McDermott et al 2012