Michel Griffon (ANR, Paris) 14th May 2008, Royal museum for Central Africa in Tervuren, Belgium

1. The changing research and
development agenda
Presentation to IFPRI Board
Tervuren May 14 – 2008
Michel Griffon (ANR Paris)
Mi h l G iff (ANR, P i )

2. 1. Long term perspective of food needs
• Using P. Collomb’s data base (1998), food
production have to double from 2000 to
2050.
• Long term production increase depends of
= land availability * water availability *
current yields * capital accumulation *
technology availability * prices input/output
* reactivity of societies.

3. • Comparing regional long term perspectives (LT
comparative advantages):
– Asia will be a major importer (China);
– WANA also;
– SSA could feed itself but with a low increase of
per capita food ratio;
– Latin America will be a major exporter (Brazil,
Argentina) but with important ecological risks;
– Canada and Russia could benefit from climate
change and increase their export capacity;
– USA and EU could increase also but in low
proportions.

4. • First conclusion:
–LLong t term (2050) global food abundance is
l b lf d b d i
not totally guaranteed;
– But no reason to become Malthusian and
prophesy famines
– But the constraints [needs for biodiversity
[ y
preservation (reduction of available land), for
climate adaptation, risk of water scarcity, of
social unresponsiveness] are so important
that there is a potential risk for temporary
food scarcity,y
– and possibly a slow long term increase of
food prices (after one century of slow price
reduction).
d ti )

5. 2.
2 Two scarcity accelerators
• China’s middle class consumption
China s
(meat) and probably India to follow;
• Biofuel perspectives (first generation)
=> Leading to world food prices increase
(signal)
• And increased risks of natural disaster:
Australian drought, Myanmar hurricane…
=> More prices volatility?

6. 3. With 2 decades of Structural
Adjustment unfavorable to agriculture
Adj f bl i l
• Structural adjustment was necessary
necessary,
• But it has been adverse to agriculture.
• Donors h
D have reduced aid t agriculture.
d d id to i lt
• It is probably the main reason for yields
plateauing in many Green Revolution
areas...
• and for world stocks reduction…
=> giving other MT-LT signals of scarcity.
> MT LT scarcity

7. 4. And public policies favoring cities
and di f
d disfavoring agriculture
i i l
• Governments are under pressure of the
street
• Import has always been a lucrative
business for Governments
• Farmers are very often considered as a
backward society unable to change
• Farmers have no power on markets and
prices.
=> Reduced supply elasticity?

8. 5. At the same time, energy prices
are i
increasing
i
• With direct transmission of energy prices
to agriculture production costs:
– Increase of tillage costs
– And N, P, K (energy, transport, future scarcity
of deposits?)
=> Big changes in technology become
inevitable.
inevitable

9. 6.
6 Pollutions have to be reduced
• N: leaching, water p
g pollution, g
greenhouse
• P, K: water pollution
• Ph
Phytosanitary molecules:
i l l
– Problems of health for producers
– Problems of health for consumers, leading to more
restrictive future standards
– Less efficiency duration of pesticides (because of
biological resistance)
g )
=> Need for new technology.

10. 7. A new equation
q
• Produce more food (and feed, fuel, fibre?),
• With higher yields
yields,
• In all kinds of agriculture, mainly poor,
• With higher input prices,
• With climate change (particularly water scarcity)
and need for adaptation,
• With a big technical change (tillage, fertilizing,
crop protection –and animal),
• B i environment f i dl –producing
Being i t friendly d i
ecological services,
• But with better prices (if good price transmission)

11. It defines and agricultural mutation
or revolution (C
l i (Conway) )
• With technical aspects: conservation
agriculture, agroecology, ecoagriculture,
evergreen revolution doubly green
revolution,
revolution…
• With agriculture policy accompaniment
with appropriate incentives : income
stability,
stability farm investment, infrastructure
investment
investment, transition costs…

12. 8. Some basic elements of a
research agenda i technology
h d in h l
• Defining “ecologically intensive systems
ecologically intensive”
• Soil: metagenomics, no tillage, intensification of
natural nutrient cycles, C sequestration, water
conservation…
i
• Innovative spatial cropping patterns and
arrangements
• Develop integrated pest management
• Molecular biotechnology for pest management
• Crop design (all kinds of biotechnologies incl. GMO)
• LT Landscape ecology planning
• E l i l services
Ecological i

13. Mucuna: First used in banana plantations, this aggressive
legouminous can now be used in Central America in mountain
l i b di C t lA i i t i
slopes.
Honduras

14. Rice and arachis « cooperation »

15. Niger- Keïta
Technology i it ti « ti
T h l imitating tiger b h »
bush

16. Australia Medicago
troncatula Doubly
Green Revolution

17. Cotton : Direct sawing in mulch

18. Fungus atack on an insect INRA Patureau

19. Virus destroying a caterpilar (H. de Conchard INRA)

20. 9. Some basic elements for a
development agenda
d l d
• Define world, regional and national nested strategies for food
g g
security reversing policies that are adverse to agriculture, and
adapting to climate change;
• Define a new system for price stabilization (reduction of
fluctuations);
• Invest in agriculture infrastructure:
– Market infrastructure
– Landscape infrastructure (green frameworks)
– Farm infrastructure
– Education.
Ed ti
• Introduce in WTO concerns about long term ecological
dumping.

21. All this would need an international
discussion and agreement
agreement…