1. Strike On Syria – Potential
Impact On Emerging And
Frontier Markets
September 2013

2. Strike On Syria – Potential Impact On Emerging And Frontier Markets
Copyright © EOS Intelligence. All Rights Reserved. 2
Though there is still uncertainty of the US military action on Syria, global markets seem to
have already given an indication of what could be in store if it actually happens. Crude oil
prices rallied in the last week of August amid indication of strike, followed by a fall in oil
futures, as the fear of imminent action receded. In another instance, share markets showed
signs of panic due to a false alarm regarding missile attack on Syria (which eventually turned
out to be an Israeli missile testing exercise).
The possible US strike on Syria has implications for global economy, and specifically for
emerging economies, which are experiencing economic slowdown. The situation could be a
tough test for countries such as India and Indonesia, as both of them struggle to keep trade-
deficit under control, and are under the watch of credit rating agencies. For countries such as
Brazil and Mexico, the US action may lead to delayed economic recovery. For Russia, being
one of the largest oil producers, political implications are more than the economic one in
case of a unilateral US action (i.e. without UN backing) on Syria.
While a sense of uncertainty and urgency prevail globally, we take a look at what potential
impact the strike might have on select emerging and frontier markets.

3. Strike On Syria – Potential Impact On Emerging And Frontier Markets
Copyright © EOS Intelligence. All Rights Reserved. 3
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