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Forecasting Technological Change (4)

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Paul Schumann
Paul Schumann

Part four of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers the integrative techniques.

TechnologyBusinessEconomy & Finance
1 of 66
Forecasting Technological Change Session 4: Integrative Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
Sessions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Sessions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
SWOT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
SWOT (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
SWOT (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
SWOT Suggestions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Strategic Market Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
A Market 06/07/09 Customers Competitors Technologies Sociopolitical Economic Demographic Scientific Opportunity Threat
Customers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Competitors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Technologies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Driving Forces 06/07/09 Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Impacts of Driving Forces 06/07/09 Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Customer Needs Competitive Strategies Technological Capabilities
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Cross Impacts 06/07/09 Customer Needs Competitive Responses Technological Capabilities Customer Needs Competitive Strategies Technological Capabilities
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Cross Impact Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Cross Impact (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Cross Impact Matrix 06/07/09 If this Event Occurs The Probability of This Event Becomes
Cross Impact Example 06/07/09 Fax Product Source: Porter, et al
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Mathematical Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Mathematical Model Example 06/07/09 Source: Allan, 1999
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Types of Innovation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
The S-Curve and Innovation 06/07/09 Incremental Time Productivity Incremental Incremental Incremental Distinctive Distinctive Breakthrough
Innovation Map 06/07/09 Product Process Procedure Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough
Automotive History ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Experimenters & Hobbyists 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
Search & Learn 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
A Car for Everyone 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
Living Room on Wheels 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
Synthesizing Market Demands 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
Life Style on Wheels 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
Innovation Mapping ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Forecast Example 06/07/09
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scenarios (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Scenarios (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
AF 2025 (1995-96) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Source:www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm
AF 2025 (cont.) 06/07/09
AF 2025 (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
4. Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Road Maps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
Road Maps (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
ITRS Roadmap 06/07/09 Source: http://public.itrs. net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm
ITRS Roadmap (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09
ITRS Roadmap (cont.) 06/07/09
Integrative Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Potential Future Reality Data, Insight Surveillance Material Change Trend Analysis Formal Application Productive Expert Opinion Purpose Final Integrative Techniques
Glocal Vantage, Inc. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Glocal Vantage, Inc.
Paul Schumann ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Glocal Vantage, Inc.
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

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Forecasting Technological Change (4)

  • 1. Forecasting Technological Change Session 4: Integrative Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. A Market 06/07/09 Customers Competitors Technologies Sociopolitical Economic Demographic Scientific Opportunity Threat
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. Driving Forces 06/07/09 Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25. Impacts of Driving Forces 06/07/09 Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Customer Needs Competitive Strategies Technological Capabilities
  • 26.
  • 27. Cross Impacts 06/07/09 Customer Needs Competitive Responses Technological Capabilities Customer Needs Competitive Strategies Technological Capabilities
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Cross Impact Matrix 06/07/09 If this Event Occurs The Probability of This Event Becomes
  • 33. Cross Impact Example 06/07/09 Fax Product Source: Porter, et al
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. Mathematical Model Example 06/07/09 Source: Allan, 1999
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39. The S-Curve and Innovation 06/07/09 Incremental Time Productivity Incremental Incremental Incremental Distinctive Distinctive Breakthrough
  • 40. Innovation Map 06/07/09 Product Process Procedure Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough
  • 41.
  • 42. Experimenters & Hobbyists 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  • 43. Search & Learn 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  • 44. A Car for Everyone 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  • 45. Living Room on Wheels 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  • 46. Synthesizing Market Demands 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  • 47. Life Style on Wheels 06/07/09 Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough Product Process Procedure
  • 48.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55. AF 2025 (cont.) 06/07/09
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. ITRS Roadmap 06/07/09 Source: http://public.itrs. net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm
  • 61.
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.