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Central Asian countries

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Comparing the 5 central Asian states, post-Soviet rules.

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Central Asian countries

  1. 1. Country: Kazahkzstan Initial Conditions <ul><li>Largest country of the region </li></ul><ul><li>Not mono-ethnic </li></ul><ul><li>Brain drain post dissolution </li></ul><ul><li>Most oil outlets connected through Russia </li></ul>Policy Highlights <ul><li>Pursued a privatization program </li></ul>Economic Outcomes <ul><li>Economics disappointed through the early 90s </li></ul><ul><li>Since 99, able to export at world prices </li></ul><ul><li>Best economic performer of the region </li></ul><ul><li>New oil discoveries creates new optimism </li></ul>Lessons Learned <ul><li>Oil the main reason for economic boom </li></ul>
  2. 2. Country: Krygyzstan Initial Conditions <ul><li>Most impoverished of all CA states </li></ul><ul><li>No resources </li></ul>Policy Highlights <ul><li>Became the most reformist CA state – 1 st to be admitted entrance to WTO </li></ul><ul><li>Large scale reforms and land reforms instituted </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation not viewed as successful </li></ul>Economic Outcomes <ul><li>Limited success in attracting foreign investment </li></ul><ul><li>High expenditures resulted in large debts incurred </li></ul><ul><li>Stalled reforms after balance of payment crisis in 1998 </li></ul><ul><li>Still one of the poorer CA states </li></ul>Lessons Learned <ul><li>Transplanting western institutions into a Central Asian setting not successful - too many other conditions for a successful market economy were lacking </li></ul><ul><li>Although resource poor, better management leads to less suffering than Tajikistan </li></ul>
  3. 3. Country: Tajikistan Initial Conditions <ul><li>Also a poor CA state </li></ul><ul><li>No resources </li></ul><ul><li>Embroiled in civil war for most of the 90s </li></ul><ul><li>Gov’t not in control over its territory during the war </li></ul>Policy Highlights <ul><li>During the 90s, country preoccupied with civil war </li></ul><ul><li>Post war, liberal policies instituted to follow int’l institution recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation poor </li></ul>Economic Outcomes <ul><li>Foreign investment came in the form of military aids from Russia </li></ul><ul><li>Overall economic performance disastrous </li></ul>Lessons Learned <ul><li>No resources + political instability = poverty </li></ul>
  4. 4. Country: Turkmenistan Initial Conditions <ul><li>Resource based: cotton, oil </li></ul>Policy Highlights <ul><li>Strong government embodied by president akin to personality cult </li></ul><ul><li>Populist strategies established: free electricity, gas, and other essentials </li></ul><ul><li>Import substitution industrialization pursued </li></ul>Economic Outcomes <ul><li>Populist policies supported through cotton and energy rents </li></ul><ul><li>Standard of living has been in decline, specific measurements difficult to obtain </li></ul>Lessons Learned <ul><li>Attempts to ignore universal economic laws + political dictatorship= Economic grief </li></ul>
  5. 5. Country: Uzbekistan Initial Conditions <ul><li>Most populous nation, Tashkent the regional capital </li></ul><ul><li>Energy resources: cotton, gold </li></ul><ul><li>Inherited best air fleet and military equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Best physical infrastructure and policy-making bureaucracy </li></ul>Policy Highlights <ul><li>Engaged in small scale privatization and housing reform </li></ul><ul><li>Engaged in international monetary organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Instituted forex control when faced with balance of payment crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Policies similar to Asian developmental state </li></ul>Economic Outcomes <ul><li>Able to maintain or even improve standard of living in the 90s </li></ul><ul><li>Forex control (propping up overvalued currency)  unwise distribution of resources and high agricultural taxes </li></ul><ul><li>Economy lags in the 2000s </li></ul>Lessons Learned <ul><li>Attempts to ignore universal economic laws brings economic grief </li></ul><ul><li>Heavily interventionist import-substituting industrialization strategy leads to: 1) LT economic stagnation, 2) creates vested interests that make policy reversal difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Delay in reforms delays the appearance of economic stagnation </li></ul>