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SA TAXI IMPACT
DELIVERING A SOCIAL & COMMERCIAL BENEFIT
INCLUSIVE GROWTHSME EMPOWERMENT & ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
SUSTAINABLE JOB CREATION
604
603
602
602
20.5%
18.2%
17.4%
17.1%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Empirica score NPL %
450 500 550 600 650 700 750
Empirica score
Proportionofcustomerbase
Score below which
traditional banks
are unlikely to offer
finance
Average score at
which SA Taxi
grants finance
R18.6 BILLION of end user finance since
2008 enabling replacement of aged &
unsafe minibus taxis with new & more
reliable taxis
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURE
PROPORTION OF CUSTOMERS CLASSIFIED
AS PREVIOUSLY FINANCIALLY EXCLUDED 90%
DIRECT JOBS PER
TAXI VEHICLE 1.8 DIRECT JOBS CREATED BY
SA TAXI’S FLEET SINCE 2008 >116 000
BLACK
OWNED SMEs 100%
R2.9 BILLION
LOANS ORIGINATED CREATING
7 480
SMEs IN FY17
R18.6 BILLION
LOANS ORIGINATED CREATING
64 689
SMEs SINCE 2008
SA Taxi enables replacement
of aged less efficient vehicles
with new reduced emission
vehicles
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
>13 400
~600 000
INDIRECT JOBS ENABLED BY
THE MINIBUS TAXI INDUSTRY¹
SA Taxi facilitates asset ownership by black owned SMEs
DIRECT JOBS CREATED BY
SA TAXI’S FLEET IN FY17
WOMEN
OWNED SMEs 21%
UNDER THE
AGE OF 35 YEARS 17%
1. Department of Transport Minister Dipuo Peters address at National Council of Provinces Budget vote NCOP 2014/15
SME EMPOWERMENT & ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION INCLUSIVE GROWTH
2
SOURCE: Stats SA Land Transport Survey July 2017 | NAAMSA Sales Results | National Treasury Public Transport & Infrastructure system report |
Department of Transport -Transport Infrastructure report | Passenger Rail Agency of SA | SA Bus Operators Association | FIN 24 – “New public transport system” 14/10/2017 |
Websites: Rea Vaya, MyCiTi, Rustenberg Rapid Transport
ENVIRONMENT & MARKET CONTEXT
MINIBUS TAXI INDUSTRY IS RESILIENT, DEFENSIVE & GROWING DESPITE SA’S ECONOMIC CLIMATE
• 40% of South Africans use public transport
• Minibus taxi is the dominant form of public transport
• Minibus taxi is an essential service & spend is
non-discretionary
~3 180 KM NATIONAL NETWORK
~500 TRAIN STATIONS
RECEIVES 44%
OF GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY
1 MILLION
COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY
TRAIN
▼>30%
>200 000 MINIBUS TAXIS
>2 600 TAXI RANKS
~15 BILLION KM TRAVELLED (per year)
COMMERCIALLY SELF-SUSTAINABLE
RECEIVES NO GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY
OVER 15 MILLION
COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY
MINIBUS TAXI
▲
>19 000 REGISTERED BUSES
>100 BUS STATIONS
~1 BILLION KM TRAVELLED (per year)
< 1 MILLION
COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY
BUS
▼1%
3 METROPOLITANS
<700 REGISTERED BUSES
~100 BUS STATIONS; <100 ROUTES
~120 000
COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY
BUS RAPID TRANSPORT (BRT)
PUBLIC TRANSPORT COMMUTERS RELY
ON MINIBUS TAXI GIVEN ITS ACCESSIBILITY,
AFFORDABILITY, RELIABILITY & FLEXIBILITY
GROWING MINIBUS TAXI USAGE
• Since 2013, minibus taxi usage (▲>15% )
• 69% of all households use minibus taxis
(59% in 2003)
• 75% of all work & educational public transport trips
• Population growth (▲7%)
• Increasing commuter density due to urbanisation
• Transformation of minibus taxi industry due to
▲regulation & capitalisation, attracting a more
sophisticated taxi operator
• New passenger vehicle sales ▼20% (FY13 to FY17)
RECEIVES 56% OF GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY
33
ENVIRONMENT & MARKET CONTEXT
SA TAXI FLEET MOVEMENT
Minibus taxi serves as a trunk service in parallel with train & bus, & is also the feeder into these modes
MINIBUS TAXI IS THE DOMINANT MODE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
SOURCE: SA Taxi fleet movement on 28 October 2017
Taxi rank
Bus station
Train station
SA Taxi exposure
Railway lines
Major highways
Secondary highways
IN AN INTEGRATED PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK
4
ENVIRONMENT FOR MINIBUS TAXI OPERATORS
MINIBUS TAXI OPERATORS REMAIN RESILIENT
DESPITE THE CURRENT CHALLENGING ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
For the period 1 Oct 2015 to 30 Sep 2017
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
TOYOTA MINIBUS TAXI PRICE
CAGR▲8%
SOURCE: NAAMSA Sales Results
1. www.energy.gov.za: 12 month rolling average petrol price
VEHICLE & OPERATING COSTS
SA REPO RATE
▲75bps
DRIVER WAGES
▲6%
VEHICLE MAINTENANCE COSTS
Marginal ▲
FINANCE INSTALMENTS
& INSURANCE PREMIUMS
▲9%
FUEL PRICE¹ (per litre)
▲6% petrol ▲7% diesel
For the 12 months ended 30 Sep 2017
AGEING FLEET: demand for minibus vehicles exceeds supply
CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT
>27%
DOMINANT MODE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Public transport spend is non-discretionary
Receives NO government subsidy; commercially self-sustainable
Integrated component of public transport network
OPERATOR PROFITABILITY: PROFITABLE & RESILIENT TAXI OPERATORS
For the 12 months ended 30 Sep 2017
▲5%
short distance
▲7%
long distance
-
TAXI FARES
Credit loss ratio CAGR
(FY13 to FY17)
▼12%
IMPROVING CREDIT METRICS
NPL ratio CAGR
(FY13 to FY17)
▼17%
HIGHER UTILISATION OF MINIBUS TAXIS
~1.5 BILLION KM travelled by the SA Taxi fleet in 2017
Increasing commuter density due to urbanisation
Preferred mode of public transport
(competitively priced; convenient; accessible)
New passenger vehicle sales▼20% (FY13 to FY17)
26%
repeat clients over the last 12 months
5
ENVIRONMENT & MARKET CONTEXT
TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET
SOURCE: National Land Transport Strategic Framework 2015 | Passenger statistics from
Arrive Alive & StatsSA noting individuals can take more than one mode of transport
National Household Transport Survey 2013 | Reuters 2017 | Industry information
IN SOUTH AFRICA THERE ARE
• Improved credit performance as SA Taxi is selective on credit risk, due to
limited supply
• Improved recoveries as asset retains value due to demand exceeding supply
• Liquid market for high quality & affordable SA Taxi pre-owned vehicles
>200 000 MINIBUS TAXIS
~150 000 TAXI OPERATORS
~200 000 TAXI DRIVERS
~3 BILLION LITRES OF FUEL PURCHASED EACH YEAR
1 200 TAXI ASSOCIATIONS
~R50 BILLION ANNUAL ESTIMATED REVENUE
50 MINUTES AVERAGE TIME SPENT TRAVELLING TO WORK
>9.9 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS USING MINIBUS TAXIS
SUPPORTING A LARGE COMMUTER MARKET
>15 MILLION COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY
DEMAND: AN AGEING NATIONAL FLEET
REQUIRING RELACEMENT & RECAPITALISATION
70 000 - 80 000 FINANCED & INSURED
120 000 - 130 000 UNENCUMBERED & HENCE AGED
SUPPLY: MINIBUS TAXI SUPPLY IN SOUTH AFRICA
>9 YEARS OLD ON AVERAGE
DRIVING HIGHER DEMAND FOR VEHICLES,
FINANCE & ALLIED SERVICES SUPPLIED BY SA TAXI
TOYOTA SESFIKILE
Most prevalent vehicle in the industry
TOYOTA PRE-OWNED
Predominantly SA Taxi refurbished vehicles
NISSAN NV350
Steadily gaining acceptance
MERCEDES SPRINTER
Mainly used for long distance routes
TOYOTA SESFIKILE
RETAIL SALES
PER MONTH ~1 000 SA TAXI’S SHARE OF
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES
>40%
(36% in 2015)
STRUCTURALLY DEMAND FOR MINIBUS TAXI VEHICLES > SUPPLY

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SA Taxi fy17

  • 1. 1 SA TAXI IMPACT DELIVERING A SOCIAL & COMMERCIAL BENEFIT INCLUSIVE GROWTHSME EMPOWERMENT & ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION SUSTAINABLE JOB CREATION 604 603 602 602 20.5% 18.2% 17.4% 17.1% 2014 2015 2016 2017 Median Empirica score NPL % 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 Empirica score Proportionofcustomerbase Score below which traditional banks are unlikely to offer finance Average score at which SA Taxi grants finance R18.6 BILLION of end user finance since 2008 enabling replacement of aged & unsafe minibus taxis with new & more reliable taxis PUBLIC TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROPORTION OF CUSTOMERS CLASSIFIED AS PREVIOUSLY FINANCIALLY EXCLUDED 90% DIRECT JOBS PER TAXI VEHICLE 1.8 DIRECT JOBS CREATED BY SA TAXI’S FLEET SINCE 2008 >116 000 BLACK OWNED SMEs 100% R2.9 BILLION LOANS ORIGINATED CREATING 7 480 SMEs IN FY17 R18.6 BILLION LOANS ORIGINATED CREATING 64 689 SMEs SINCE 2008 SA Taxi enables replacement of aged less efficient vehicles with new reduced emission vehicles ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY >13 400 ~600 000 INDIRECT JOBS ENABLED BY THE MINIBUS TAXI INDUSTRY¹ SA Taxi facilitates asset ownership by black owned SMEs DIRECT JOBS CREATED BY SA TAXI’S FLEET IN FY17 WOMEN OWNED SMEs 21% UNDER THE AGE OF 35 YEARS 17% 1. Department of Transport Minister Dipuo Peters address at National Council of Provinces Budget vote NCOP 2014/15 SME EMPOWERMENT & ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION INCLUSIVE GROWTH
  • 2. 2 SOURCE: Stats SA Land Transport Survey July 2017 | NAAMSA Sales Results | National Treasury Public Transport & Infrastructure system report | Department of Transport -Transport Infrastructure report | Passenger Rail Agency of SA | SA Bus Operators Association | FIN 24 – “New public transport system” 14/10/2017 | Websites: Rea Vaya, MyCiTi, Rustenberg Rapid Transport ENVIRONMENT & MARKET CONTEXT MINIBUS TAXI INDUSTRY IS RESILIENT, DEFENSIVE & GROWING DESPITE SA’S ECONOMIC CLIMATE • 40% of South Africans use public transport • Minibus taxi is the dominant form of public transport • Minibus taxi is an essential service & spend is non-discretionary ~3 180 KM NATIONAL NETWORK ~500 TRAIN STATIONS RECEIVES 44% OF GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY 1 MILLION COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY TRAIN ▼>30% >200 000 MINIBUS TAXIS >2 600 TAXI RANKS ~15 BILLION KM TRAVELLED (per year) COMMERCIALLY SELF-SUSTAINABLE RECEIVES NO GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY OVER 15 MILLION COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY MINIBUS TAXI ▲ >19 000 REGISTERED BUSES >100 BUS STATIONS ~1 BILLION KM TRAVELLED (per year) < 1 MILLION COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY BUS ▼1% 3 METROPOLITANS <700 REGISTERED BUSES ~100 BUS STATIONS; <100 ROUTES ~120 000 COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY BUS RAPID TRANSPORT (BRT) PUBLIC TRANSPORT COMMUTERS RELY ON MINIBUS TAXI GIVEN ITS ACCESSIBILITY, AFFORDABILITY, RELIABILITY & FLEXIBILITY GROWING MINIBUS TAXI USAGE • Since 2013, minibus taxi usage (▲>15% ) • 69% of all households use minibus taxis (59% in 2003) • 75% of all work & educational public transport trips • Population growth (▲7%) • Increasing commuter density due to urbanisation • Transformation of minibus taxi industry due to ▲regulation & capitalisation, attracting a more sophisticated taxi operator • New passenger vehicle sales ▼20% (FY13 to FY17) RECEIVES 56% OF GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY
  • 3. 33 ENVIRONMENT & MARKET CONTEXT SA TAXI FLEET MOVEMENT Minibus taxi serves as a trunk service in parallel with train & bus, & is also the feeder into these modes MINIBUS TAXI IS THE DOMINANT MODE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT SOURCE: SA Taxi fleet movement on 28 October 2017 Taxi rank Bus station Train station SA Taxi exposure Railway lines Major highways Secondary highways IN AN INTEGRATED PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK
  • 4. 4 ENVIRONMENT FOR MINIBUS TAXI OPERATORS MINIBUS TAXI OPERATORS REMAIN RESILIENT DESPITE THE CURRENT CHALLENGING ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT For the period 1 Oct 2015 to 30 Sep 2017 STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS TOYOTA MINIBUS TAXI PRICE CAGR▲8% SOURCE: NAAMSA Sales Results 1. www.energy.gov.za: 12 month rolling average petrol price VEHICLE & OPERATING COSTS SA REPO RATE ▲75bps DRIVER WAGES ▲6% VEHICLE MAINTENANCE COSTS Marginal ▲ FINANCE INSTALMENTS & INSURANCE PREMIUMS ▲9% FUEL PRICE¹ (per litre) ▲6% petrol ▲7% diesel For the 12 months ended 30 Sep 2017 AGEING FLEET: demand for minibus vehicles exceeds supply CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS OF UNEMPLOYMENT >27% DOMINANT MODE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT Public transport spend is non-discretionary Receives NO government subsidy; commercially self-sustainable Integrated component of public transport network OPERATOR PROFITABILITY: PROFITABLE & RESILIENT TAXI OPERATORS For the 12 months ended 30 Sep 2017 ▲5% short distance ▲7% long distance - TAXI FARES Credit loss ratio CAGR (FY13 to FY17) ▼12% IMPROVING CREDIT METRICS NPL ratio CAGR (FY13 to FY17) ▼17% HIGHER UTILISATION OF MINIBUS TAXIS ~1.5 BILLION KM travelled by the SA Taxi fleet in 2017 Increasing commuter density due to urbanisation Preferred mode of public transport (competitively priced; convenient; accessible) New passenger vehicle sales▼20% (FY13 to FY17) 26% repeat clients over the last 12 months
  • 5. 5 ENVIRONMENT & MARKET CONTEXT TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET SOURCE: National Land Transport Strategic Framework 2015 | Passenger statistics from Arrive Alive & StatsSA noting individuals can take more than one mode of transport National Household Transport Survey 2013 | Reuters 2017 | Industry information IN SOUTH AFRICA THERE ARE • Improved credit performance as SA Taxi is selective on credit risk, due to limited supply • Improved recoveries as asset retains value due to demand exceeding supply • Liquid market for high quality & affordable SA Taxi pre-owned vehicles >200 000 MINIBUS TAXIS ~150 000 TAXI OPERATORS ~200 000 TAXI DRIVERS ~3 BILLION LITRES OF FUEL PURCHASED EACH YEAR 1 200 TAXI ASSOCIATIONS ~R50 BILLION ANNUAL ESTIMATED REVENUE 50 MINUTES AVERAGE TIME SPENT TRAVELLING TO WORK >9.9 MILLION HOUSEHOLDS USING MINIBUS TAXIS SUPPORTING A LARGE COMMUTER MARKET >15 MILLION COMMUTER TRIPS DAILY DEMAND: AN AGEING NATIONAL FLEET REQUIRING RELACEMENT & RECAPITALISATION 70 000 - 80 000 FINANCED & INSURED 120 000 - 130 000 UNENCUMBERED & HENCE AGED SUPPLY: MINIBUS TAXI SUPPLY IN SOUTH AFRICA >9 YEARS OLD ON AVERAGE DRIVING HIGHER DEMAND FOR VEHICLES, FINANCE & ALLIED SERVICES SUPPLIED BY SA TAXI TOYOTA SESFIKILE Most prevalent vehicle in the industry TOYOTA PRE-OWNED Predominantly SA Taxi refurbished vehicles NISSAN NV350 Steadily gaining acceptance MERCEDES SPRINTER Mainly used for long distance routes TOYOTA SESFIKILE RETAIL SALES PER MONTH ~1 000 SA TAXI’S SHARE OF MONTHLY RETAIL SALES >40% (36% in 2015) STRUCTURALLY DEMAND FOR MINIBUS TAXI VEHICLES > SUPPLY