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Sea-level rise and Extreme Sea Level Events
- 1. Sea-level rise and Extreme Sea Level Events Erwin Lambert Utrecht University, NL
- 2. 2100 2200 2300 Sea-level projections in the AR5 report (2013) • Antarctic contribution small • Nuance: instability of West-Antarctica
- 4. • Antarctic contribution revised upwards by 10 cm under high emissions • Contribution based on multiple ice sheet modelling studies • Comparable uncertainty, but increased confidence
- 5. nytime
- 6. SBS
- 7. • Measure for the rate at which flood hazards will magnify • Indication when adaptation measures need to be taken
- 8. RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 • Rare events will become common • Already the case in the tropics • Annual extremes by 2050
- 9. • Antarctica can cause up to 3 meters of sea-level rise by 2300 • Effective mitigation greatly reduces the possibility of multi-meter sea-level rise
- 10. • Sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100 if emissions are not sharply reduced • Extreme sea level events will become at least 100 times more frequent at most coastal locations before 2100 • Most tropical islands and many low-lying megacities will be exposed to annual flood risk by 2050 under any scenario, in absence of strong adaptation • Without emission cuts, sea level may rise up to 5 meters by 2300 Manage the unavoidable, but avoid the unmanageable - Jean-Pierre Gattuso