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Iris & IPA Eff Week

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Measuring the Unmeasurable: Understanding the long-term effectiveness of creating risk taking.

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Iris & IPA Eff Week

  1. 1. 11Confidential © 2016
  2. 2. 22Confidential © 2016 Jonny ProtheroeHead of Marketing Insights UK Google Lindsey Clay CEO Thinkbox Michael Barrett adidas GLITCH Sally Taplin Managing Partner iris Concise Sophie Lewis Head of Planning, iris Chair: Paul Bainsfair Director General IPA Ben Essen Executive Planning Director iris
  3. 3. 33Confidential © 2016 Latest thinking from the IPA
  4. 4. 44Confidential © 2016 What do we mean by effectiveness?
  5. 5. 55Confidential © 2016 16/11/2017 Successful delivery against business objectives. Driven by an evidenced view of what is and isn’t working. Active decision making KPIs Consistent measurement Learning culture
  6. 6. 66Confidential © 2016 How is your organisation doing? 16/11/2017 Self-assessed ‘scores out of 10’ Source: IPA Culture First
  7. 7. 77Confidential © 2016 However overall levels of effectiveness are falling 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Numberofverylarge businesseffects 10 years ending Source: IPA Databank
  8. 8. 88Confidential © 2016 So what’s going on?
  9. 9. 99Confidential © 2016 Source: Companies; Jefferies analysis Organic sales growth in Global Foods & HPC since Q1 2009 1 Average of Nestle, Unilever, Danone, Kraft, Mondelez, P&G, Colgate, RB & L’Oreal (1.9%) (0.2%) 1.4% 4.9% 6.3% 5.7% 5.0% 4.6% 3.7% 3.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% (0.1%) 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.8% (0.4%) (1.3%) (1.3%) (0.6%) (0.0%) 1.1% 3.6% 4.0% 4.7% 4.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Volume Price/mix With growth slowing, efficiency trumps effectiveness
  10. 10. 1010Confidential © 2016 Brands are spending less on media 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 AveESOV 10 years ending ESOV all ESOV long cases Source: IPA Databank
  11. 11. 1111Confidential © 2016 Sales activation has grown 40% - 50% advertising spend. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2000 2015 Analogue Digital Direct response ad expenditure (£m) Source: Enders Analysis Harnessing opportunities to activate immediate sales
  12. 12. 1212Confidential © 2016 Source: Emma Harris, IPA 86 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Months 1984 2013 65% decline in length of agency tenures Exacerbated by shorter tenures
  13. 13. 1313Confidential © 2016 Increased activation of sales, lack of investment in brand 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 %casesreportingverylarge effects 10 years ending Activation effects Brand awareness growth Source: IPA Databank, 1998-2016 cases
  14. 14. 1515Confidential © 2016 “Putting a financial outcome on our brand campaign is virtually impossible, because it’s not driving a specific customer to come in and buy xyz – it’s driving a brand halo effect.” Marketing Finance Controller We’re failing to justify ‘the fluffy stuff’ “I am a Finance person. I like certainty. Marketing also look at – I can’t quite remember the name of it – something to do with brand equity. If I’m really honest from a finance point of view I don’t give much weight to the softer ones – the brand equity stuff.” Finance Director. Source: IPA Culture First
  15. 15. 1616Confidential © 2016 Salesupliftoverbase Time Source: Binet & Field 201 Sales activation Short term sales uplifts Brand building Long term sales growth Short term effects dominate ~6 months We need clearer distinction between short and long term levers
  16. 16. 1717Confidential © 2016 “It’s about equilibrium and balance. Finance gives you an indication of the current health of the company. The brand is an indication of the future performance.” Corporate Innovation and Strategy Director. “We need to think of marketing as less of a cost centre but as a strategic growth driver.” Lindsey Clay, Thinkbox. Source: IPA Culture First, iris Eff Event We need clearer distinction between short and long term levers
  17. 17. 1818Confidential © 2016 So what do we need to do?
  18. 18. 1919Confidential © 2016 Commit to the KPIs that matter Methods (
  19. 19. 2020Confidential © 2016 Start talking the language of finance 16/11/2017 ‘If we change the language, Financial Directors will start paying attention’ Jonny Protheroe, Google
  20. 20. 2121Confidential © 2016 Non working media Brand halo effect Soft metrics Longer term spend Asset Creation Value/Margin protection Levers to unlock future growth Margin defence /Share protection Start talking the language of finance
  21. 21. 2222Confidential © 2016 Pushing the effectiveness agenda forward
  22. 22. 2323Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 98.6%99.8% no data targeting with data targeting 1. Move beyond effectiveness by increments
  23. 23. 2424Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 1. Move beyond effectiveness by increments
  24. 24. 2525Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 1. Move beyond effectiveness by increments “We need old forms of measurement for new forms of media” Lindsay Clay, Thinkbox “Sometimes you need to throw all the cards in the air to try something else. Rather than optimise towards the middle, ask yourself what was special about the top 1%?” Jonny Protheroe, Google
  25. 25. 2626Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “If everyone were to advertise effectively, then advertising wouldn’t be effective” Ivan Spiegel, Snapchat 2. Treat effectiveness as a competitive sport
  26. 26. 2727Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 2. Treat effectiveness as a competitive sport
  27. 27. 2828Confidential © 2016 “For any brand with competitors, there’s no such thing as the no-risk option. If you don’t do it someone else will do it… But a small controlled experiment can demonstrate that it can work” Michael Barrett, adidas Glitch Source: iris Eff Event
  28. 28. 2929Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 “This £ spend is worth £xx in its lifetime” • Beyond direct sales returns • Create proxys for long term profit growth • Don’t underestimate the unmeasurables • More focus on price elasticity 3. A more holistic view of ROI
  29. 29. 3030Confidential © 2016 “Don’t be too quick to judge short term measures. They tell you that you’re doing something right now that is working. It’s ok to embrace the pragmatic within the big picture.” Michael Barrett, Adidas Glitch “How do you give quantifiable value to the brand in the future? How demonstrate its value vs quick fire returns?” Sophie Lewis, iris “Back in 2007 Marketing in the Era of Accountability identified the most accurate predictor of effectiveness was likeability. That’s not a bad measure” Lindsay Clay, Thinkbox Source: iris Eff Event
  30. 30. 3131Confidential © 2016Confidential © 2016 4. Introduce the language of risk and reward
  31. 31. 3232Confidential © 2016 “Risk taking isn’t gambling. It’s having a culture that is prepared to look forward and plan. If you don’t have the planning you can’t confidently take a risk.” Sally Taplin, iris “Brand response means we’re doing it for brand reasons but we’ll measure it using response metrics” Jonny Protheroe, Google Source: iris Eff Event
  32. 32. 3333Confidential © 2016 Jonny ProtheroeHead of Marketing Insights UK Google Lindsey Clay CEO Thinkbox Michael Barrett adidas GLITCH Sally Taplin Managing Partner iris Concise TODAY’S PANEL Sophie Lewis Head of Planning, iris Chair:

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