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Study of the Nokia - Microsoft Deal (Research Project)

an analysis & a look at the Nokia - Microsoft deal, as a part of a research project

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Study of the Nokia - Microsoft Deal (Research Project)

  1. 1. Research Paper – I Study & Analysis of the Nokia – Microsoft deal Presented by: Ishan Parekh MBA (Tech.) – Div . C Roll No. #315 1
  2. 2. Study Objective • The main objective is to study the implications of the Nokia – Microsoft deal on Nokia, as well the cell phone industry as a whole 2
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  4. 4. Nokia • Generic with product • Leader in innovations • Pioneer in cell phones • Empire at one point (in the 3rd quarter of 2010, the sales of Nokia were greater than that of the combined total of Apple & Samsung!) 4
  5. 5. Nokia - Microsoft Alliance • Announcement in February 2011. 5
  6. 6. Significance and Need For Study “Complete game – changing deal” • Enormous loss of sales & will change market share holding pattern • The need for the study is to analyze the amount of losses Nokia will face and how its competitors stand to gain from it. 6
  7. 7. Concepts & Constructs and Issues Raised 7
  8. 8. Basic Concepts Dumbphones Smartphones Eco-system Market Share Windfall ASP 8
  9. 9. Issues Raised Issues Raised Will Nokia Survive Windfall 9
  10. 10. Assumptions, Scope & Limitations, Proposed Framework, Variables and Hypothesis 10
  11. 11. Assumptions 11 Rational Behaviour No Fluctuation in the ASP Same policies followed as in the past Distribution of windfall based on current market scenario Effect of the deal on the basis of assumed hybrid forecast
  12. 12. Scope & Limitations • Forecast based on historic data • Ecosystem behavior cannot be predicted • Nokia’s revenues calculated on basis solely of their handsets 12
  13. 13. Proposed Framework Current market share Average sales price Hybrid model 13
  14. 14. Variables 14
  15. 15. Hypothesis “The hypothesis for our study is that the loss in market share for Nokia is directly associated with the deal it signed with Microsoft.” 15 Loss in market share Deal signed with Microsoft
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  17. 17. Quarter (2011) Mkt Share (%) Sales (mill) ASP ($) Revenue (bill €) 1 28 29 146 4.3 2 21 25 136 3.3 3 16 21 126 2.6 4 12 17 116 2 Source: Tomi Ahonen Consulting Nokia’s Development in 2011 17
  18. 18. 18 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1 2 3 4 Mkt Share (%) mkt share 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 Sales (mill) sales (mill) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1 2 3 4 ASP ($) asp 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1 2 3 4 Revenue(bill €) revenue(bill €)
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  20. 20. Conclusion Future Scope • Worst possible nightmare for Nokia • Short term – Nokia losing & Microsoft gaining some advantage • Long term – future of Nokia looks very bleak • Recent acquisition of Motorola by Google • Recent let go of Palm by HP • Possible return to Symbian / Meego • How to rescue Nokia 20
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