IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 7.2 Darren Lumbroso

1. November 2016
An overview of the effectiveness of early warning
systems and risk assessments for weather-related
hazards in South Asia
Darren Lumbroso

2. © HR Wallingford 2016
Bangladesh
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 2
 80% of land is floodplain
 160 million people
 57,000 square miles
 Per capita GDP
US$1,170
 144th poorest country in
the world
 Dominated by the
Ganges-Brahmaputra
delta

3. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 3
Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones
and coastal floods
Numberoffatalities
Population(millions)
India UK Water Centre

4. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 4
Numberoffatalities
Population(millions)
Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones
and coastal floods

5. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 Page 5
Numberoffatalities
Population(millions)
Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones
and coastal floods

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Numberoffatalities
Population(millions)
0
Bangladesh – The human cost of cyclones
and coastal floods

7. © HR Wallingford 2016
1980 1990 2015
Multipurpose
Cyclone Shelters
Programme
commissioned in
1991. Almost 2,000
cyclone shelters
constructed.
One hundred
cyclone shelters
built, early 1960s
Cyclone
Preparedness
Programme (CPP) of
Bangladesh
Red Crescent Society
set up, 1972
International
Federation of Red
Cross and Red
Crescent Societies
request the setting
up of a warning
system for coastal
communities, 1965
National Forecast
Centre of the
Institute of
Meteorology
adopted a user
oriented
philosophy, 1980
1.5 million
people take
refuge in cyclone
shelters during
Cyclone Sidr,
2007
Standing Orders for
Cyclone (SOC)
proclaimed by the
Government of
Bangladesh, 1985
Agreement on constructing
cyclone shelters reached.
World Bank funds
construction of some 200
shelters,1970
Under Second
Primary
Education
Programme 924
new cyclone
shelters
planned, 2009
Comprehensive
Community-Based
Disaster
Preparedness
programme, 1997
Two S band radars
implemented on the
coast for cyclone
forecasting
installed, 1988
Upgrading of
coastal radar
19701960 2000
Number of
CPP
volunteers
reaches
32,000, 2000
2010
Number of
CPP
volunteers
reaches
50,000, 2012
November 2016 India UK Water Centre 7

8. © HR Wallingford 2016
Bangladesh - Portfolio of measures
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 8

9. © HR Wallingford 2016
Hyogo Framework for Action core
indicators 2.1 and 2.2
 Core indicator 2.1: “National and local risk assessments based on hazard
data and vulnerability information are available and include risk
assessments for key sectors”
 Core indicator 2.3: “Early warning systems are in place for all major
hazards, with outreach to communities”
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 9
Hyogo Framework for
Action (HFA) level
Achievements
Level 1 Minor progress with few signs of forward action in plans or policy
Level 2 Some progress, but without systematic policy and/or institutional
commitment
Level 3 Institutional commitment attained, but achievements are neither
comprehensive nor substantial
Level 4 Substantial achievement attained but with recognized limitations in
key aspects, such as financial resources and/or operational
capacities
Level 5 Comprehensive achievement with sustained commitment and
capacities at all levels

10. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 10
Hyogo Framework for Action - Core indicator
2.1: National and local risk assessments for
South Asia
HFA level
No reporting
1
2
3
4
5

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Hyogo Framework for Action - Core indicator
2.3: Early warning systems for South Asia
HFA level
No reporting
1
2
3
4
5

12. © HR Wallingford 2016
How to assess the “effectiveness” of risk
assessments and early warning systems
for weather-related hazards?
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 12
Aspect Factors evaluated
Robustness Are data availability/quality a constraint in providing information?
Reliability Is there evidence that people are using the information and if so what
are they using it for?
Access Is the information clearly communicated?
How is it communicated?
Aspect Factors evaluated
Robustness Can sufficiently accurate and timely warnings be generated?
Is data availability/sharing a constraint in providing information?
Are data quality a constraint in providing information?
Reliability Are the warnings dependent on the forecasts of Meteorological
Services from outside the country in question?
Are there enough adequately trained staff/volunteers?
Access Are a variety of warning methods used?
Can all stakeholder groups access the information?
Response Are there associated training programmes or mock drills in place?
Is the institutional framework in place to respond to system
information?
Risk assessments
Early Warning Systems

13. © HR Wallingford 2016
How to assess the “effectiveness” of risk
assessments and early warning systems
for weather-related hazards?
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 13
Score Factors evaluated
1 An early warning systems or risk assessments exists but it is not particularly
effective
2 An early warning systems or risk assessments exists and is deemed to be
“moderately effective” in reducing humanitarian impacts
3 The early warning systems or risk assessments that are in place are “effective” in
that they lead to the desired response that results in a reduction in the impacts of
the weather-related hazards
No information There was insufficient evidence available to judge the effectiveness of the early
warning system or risk assessment
 Stakeholders engaged with via a range of routes including internet-based
surveys and semi-structured interviews

14. © HR Wallingford 2016
Effectiveness of early warning systems for
cyclones
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 14

15. © HR Wallingford 2016
Effectiveness of early warning systems for
droughts
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 15

16. © HR Wallingford 2016
Risk assessments for cyclones
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 16

17. © HR Wallingford 2016
Barriers to effectiveness of risk
assessments
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 17

18. © HR Wallingford 2016
Barriers to effectiveness of early warning
systems
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 18

19. © HR Wallingford 2016
Conclusions
 Main barriers to the effectiveness of risk
mapping for weather-related hazards:
 Availability of information on factors affecting
people’s vulnerability
 Lack of accessibility of risk maps to relevant
stakeholders
 Main barriers to the effectiveness of early
warning systems:
 Lack of technological capacity to generate
forecasts
 Lack of high quality data
November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 19

20. © HR Wallingford 2016November 2016 India UK Water Centre Page 20
Further reading
www.evidenceondemand.
info/final-report-science-
for-humanitarian-
emergencies-and-
resilience-scoping-study

21. November 2016
Questions?
Darren Lumbroso