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How to build
                      Decision
                   Management
James Taylor
                      Systems
       CEO


                      Part Two:
               Decision Services
Your presenter – James Taylor
 CEO of Decision Management Solutions
 Works with clients to improve their
 business by applying analytic technology
 to automate & improve decisions
 Spent the last 9 years championing
 Decision Management and developing
 Decision Management Systems




                                       ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   1
Recapping Part I:
Decision Discovery
A changing world
                                     Changing Scale



Changing Expectations




                 Changing Interactions
                                         ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   3
What are Decision Management Systems?

     Agile




                 Analytic




                                     Adaptive


                            ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   4
3 Steps to Decision Management


                       Discover
                       Build
                       Improve




                          ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   5
Decisions




            Making choices or
            selections and taking
            action

                   ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   6
Suitable decisions



  Repeatable          Non trivial


  Measurable
                     Candidate for
   business
                      automation
    impact
                         ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   7
Candidate decisions
 Determine if a customer is eligible for a benefit
 Validate the completeness of an invoice
 Calculate the discount for an order
 Assess the risk of a transaction
 Select the terms for a loan
 Choose which claims to Fast Track

 These are decision words
    The system must answer a question each time
                                    ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   8
Decision’s should be decomposed

                               Can this customer
                                buy this service?

                                                                                        Customer Profile
  Is the service available
   where this customer
           lives?
                             Is there capacity on   Is the customer
                                  this service?      eligible for this
                                                         service?

   Geographical
    Availability
                                 Capacity and                                    Eligibility rules
                                    Usage


                                                                     Purchase propensity




                                                                     ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   9
Build
Decision latency is a challenge


     Business
      event




                Decision latency




                                          Action taken




                                   © Decision Management Solutions, 2011   11
The rules of decisions matter




                Decision




                            ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   12
What are business rules?



    “ … statements of the
     actions you should take
      when certain business
       conditions are true. ”


                           ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   13
But most are unmanageable




public class Application {
private Customer customers[];
private Customer goldCustomers[];
...
public void checkOrder() {
  for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) {
   Customer aCustomer = customers[i];
   if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) {
     numGoldCustomers++;
     goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer;
     if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000)
      aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05);
   }
  }
}




                                                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   14
Patterns inform decision-making

10




5




0
     Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10

                                              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   15
How to look forward?




                       ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   16
Bring three groups together



                 Business




                Decision




                              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   17
Build decision-making components

             Operational
             Systems


                                                   Decision




             Analytic
             Systems
                           ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   18
What do you need in a platform?
 Design Transparency
 Execution Transparency
 Collaboration
 Impact Analysis
 Platform for analytics




                           © Decision Management Solutions, 2011   19
A Business Rules Management System

             Validation and                       Testing
              Verification




Business                                                    Deployment
                                                                          Decision
Simulation                      Rule                                      Service                                             Production
                              Repository
                                                                                                                              Application

                                                                         Rule Engine




              Design
                                              Rule
               Tools
                                           Management
                                           Applications




                                                                              Operational
                                                                               Database




                                                                                                                       After Decision Management Systems, IBM Press 2011




                                                                                            ©2011 Decision Management Solutions                       20
Clarity and transparency are needed
            If customer is GoldCustomer
             and Home_Equity_Loan_Value is more than $100,000
             then college_loan_discount = 0.5%
            If member has greater than 3 prescriptions
             and prescription’s renewal_date is less than 30 days in the future
              then set reminder=“email”
            If patient’s age is less than 18
             and member’s coverage is “standard”
             and member’s number_of_claims does not exceed 4
              then set patient’s coverage to “standard”




                                                    ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   21
Help the business to manage decisions

                                                                                         I want to relax my
                                                                                         underwriting policy




                                                  I want to be able to promote a new
                                                  product combination

      So you business-types want to
      be able to change your
      business rules?


                                        I need to add the new
                                        regulations




                                      No…




                                                                            ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   22
Why Manage Business Rules
        Reduce Costs
        • Fewer resources, less time to change decisions
        • Lower fines, legal costs from bad decisions
        • Reduced IT costs to implement decisions

        Improve Decision Making
        • Clear policies and procedures
        • Consistently applied across channels, systems
        • Increased accuracy from business users control

        Business Agility
        • More rapid response to business threats
        • Fewer missed opportunities
        • Faster time to market
                                           ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   23
Three kinds of analytic decisions


    Risk         Fraud Opportunity




                            ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   24
Predict Risk



How risky is
this customer’s
application for
service…

And how should
we price it?
                  ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   25
Predict Fraud




 How likely is this claim to be fraudulent….
          and what should we do about it?

                              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   26
Predict Opportunity

What represents the
best opportunity to
maximize loyalty and
revenue?

And when should
we promote it?


                       ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   27
Predictive Analytics turn
uncertainty about the future
  into usable probabilities



                  ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   28
Embed Predictive Analytics




                 ?

                 ?      Decision




                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   29
©2011 Decision Management Solutions   30
Lessons learned
 Managing decisions involves business rules and
 predictive analytics in combination
 More rules in the hands of business users
 improves agility and accuracy
 Predictive analytics are most valuable when they
 are embedded to inform individual transactions
 Legacy systems can be modernized without
 expensive rip and replace projects
 Processes can be simplified and made more agile if
 decisions are externalized
                                  ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   31
Learn More
Decision Management Systems
               What if you could make your systems
               active participants in optimizing your
               business?
               What if your systems could act intelligently
               on their own?
               Decision Management Systems can do
               all that and more. This book shows
               how to integrate operational and
               analytic technologies to create more
               agile, analytic, and adaptive systems.

               For more information about this new release, visit
               decisionmanagementsolutions.com/book
                                        ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   33
Check in for the other webinars
 How to Build Decision Management Systems
 Part 1 – Decision Discovery
   Recording available

 Part 2 – Decision Services
   Recording will be available

 Part 3 – Decision Analysis
   November 29, 10am Pacific




                                 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   34
Questions?
Begin with the Decision in mind


                          Discover
                          Build
                          Improve

                Find the decisions that
                matter to your business and
                model them
                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   36
Find the rules of decision-making


                            Discover
                            Build
                            Improve

                 Analyze and manage the
                 business rules that underpin
                 your operational decisions
                              ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   37
Embed Predictive Analytics


                          Discover
                          Build
                          Improve

     Decision     Build predictive analytic
                  models and embed them in
                  operational systems
                             ©2011 Decision Management Solutions   38
Thank You
                James Taylor, CEO
james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com




                                        39

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How to Build Decision Management Systems Part 2 Decision services

  • 1. How to build Decision Management James Taylor Systems CEO Part Two: Decision Services
  • 2. Your presenter – James Taylor CEO of Decision Management Solutions Works with clients to improve their business by applying analytic technology to automate & improve decisions Spent the last 9 years championing Decision Management and developing Decision Management Systems ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 1
  • 4. A changing world Changing Scale Changing Expectations Changing Interactions ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 3
  • 5. What are Decision Management Systems? Agile Analytic Adaptive ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 4
  • 6. 3 Steps to Decision Management Discover Build Improve ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 5
  • 7. Decisions Making choices or selections and taking action ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 6
  • 8. Suitable decisions Repeatable Non trivial Measurable Candidate for business automation impact ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 7
  • 9. Candidate decisions Determine if a customer is eligible for a benefit Validate the completeness of an invoice Calculate the discount for an order Assess the risk of a transaction Select the terms for a loan Choose which claims to Fast Track These are decision words The system must answer a question each time ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 8
  • 10. Decision’s should be decomposed Can this customer buy this service? Customer Profile Is the service available where this customer lives? Is there capacity on Is the customer this service? eligible for this service? Geographical Availability Capacity and Eligibility rules Usage Purchase propensity ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 9
  • 11. Build
  • 12. Decision latency is a challenge Business event Decision latency Action taken © Decision Management Solutions, 2011 11
  • 13. The rules of decisions matter Decision ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 12
  • 14. What are business rules? “ … statements of the actions you should take when certain business conditions are true. ” ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 13
  • 15. But most are unmanageable public class Application { private Customer customers[]; private Customer goldCustomers[]; ... public void checkOrder() { for (int i = 0; i < numCustomers; i++) { Customer aCustomer = customers[i]; if (aCustomer.checkIfGold()) { numGoldCustomers++; goldCustomers[numGoldCustomers] = aCustomer; if (aCustomer.getCurrentOrder().getAmount() > 100000) aCustomer.setSpecialDiscount (0.05); } } } ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 14
  • 16. Patterns inform decision-making 10 5 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 15
  • 17. How to look forward? ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 16
  • 18. Bring three groups together Business Decision ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 17
  • 19. Build decision-making components Operational Systems Decision Analytic Systems ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 18
  • 20. What do you need in a platform? Design Transparency Execution Transparency Collaboration Impact Analysis Platform for analytics © Decision Management Solutions, 2011 19
  • 21. A Business Rules Management System Validation and Testing Verification Business Deployment Decision Simulation Rule Service Production Repository Application Rule Engine Design Rule Tools Management Applications Operational Database After Decision Management Systems, IBM Press 2011 ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 20
  • 22. Clarity and transparency are needed If customer is GoldCustomer and Home_Equity_Loan_Value is more than $100,000 then college_loan_discount = 0.5% If member has greater than 3 prescriptions and prescription’s renewal_date is less than 30 days in the future then set reminder=“email” If patient’s age is less than 18 and member’s coverage is “standard” and member’s number_of_claims does not exceed 4 then set patient’s coverage to “standard” ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 21
  • 23. Help the business to manage decisions I want to relax my underwriting policy I want to be able to promote a new product combination So you business-types want to be able to change your business rules? I need to add the new regulations No… ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 22
  • 24. Why Manage Business Rules Reduce Costs • Fewer resources, less time to change decisions • Lower fines, legal costs from bad decisions • Reduced IT costs to implement decisions Improve Decision Making • Clear policies and procedures • Consistently applied across channels, systems • Increased accuracy from business users control Business Agility • More rapid response to business threats • Fewer missed opportunities • Faster time to market ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 23
  • 25. Three kinds of analytic decisions Risk Fraud Opportunity ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 24
  • 26. Predict Risk How risky is this customer’s application for service… And how should we price it? ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 25
  • 27. Predict Fraud How likely is this claim to be fraudulent…. and what should we do about it? ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 26
  • 28. Predict Opportunity What represents the best opportunity to maximize loyalty and revenue? And when should we promote it? ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 27
  • 29. Predictive Analytics turn uncertainty about the future into usable probabilities ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 28
  • 30. Embed Predictive Analytics ? ? Decision ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 29
  • 32. Lessons learned Managing decisions involves business rules and predictive analytics in combination More rules in the hands of business users improves agility and accuracy Predictive analytics are most valuable when they are embedded to inform individual transactions Legacy systems can be modernized without expensive rip and replace projects Processes can be simplified and made more agile if decisions are externalized ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 31
  • 34. Decision Management Systems What if you could make your systems active participants in optimizing your business? What if your systems could act intelligently on their own? Decision Management Systems can do all that and more. This book shows how to integrate operational and analytic technologies to create more agile, analytic, and adaptive systems. For more information about this new release, visit decisionmanagementsolutions.com/book ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 33
  • 35. Check in for the other webinars How to Build Decision Management Systems Part 1 – Decision Discovery Recording available Part 2 – Decision Services Recording will be available Part 3 – Decision Analysis November 29, 10am Pacific ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 34
  • 37. Begin with the Decision in mind Discover Build Improve Find the decisions that matter to your business and model them ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 36
  • 38. Find the rules of decision-making Discover Build Improve Analyze and manage the business rules that underpin your operational decisions ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 37
  • 39. Embed Predictive Analytics Discover Build Improve Decision Build predictive analytic models and embed them in operational systems ©2011 Decision Management Solutions 38
  • 40. Thank You James Taylor, CEO james@decisionmanagementsolutions.com 39