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Staring into the Abyss
$$$?
ISP
OTT VoIP to cost telcos $479b to 2020.
— Ovum
Now buy our reports and bespoke research – even though
we’ve never worked in a telco or supplier, we know your
business better than you! — Consultants and Analysts
Reports of declining SMS revenue are wrong;
annual revenue will exceed 2010 levels until
2017. — Portio Research
We’re in a very fortunate position, our customers
are addicted to the internet, they keep using
more and more. — Alan Quayle
>50%
70%
1900%
But isn’t KakaoTalk killing SKT?
The Brain Handles Positive and
Negative Information in Differently
“The brain handles positive and
negative information in different
hemispheres. Negative emotions
generally involve more thinking, and
the information is processed more
thoroughly than positive ones.” said
Professor Nass, Stanford University
KakaoTalk ChatON MyPeople Naver LINE
Free text yes yes yes yes
Free call yes no yes yes
Voice message yes yes yes yes
Send picture yes yes yes yes
Send video yes yes yes yes
Send… Contact
Contact, animation
message, calendar,
document, location
Contact, cloud,
location
Contact, location
Stickers and
emoticons
Basic ones for free,
everything else
additional charges
free free
Basic ones for free,
everything else
additional charges
Popup message ? yes yes yes
Language support 12 languages 60 languages Korean, English 9 languages
Available for
Android, iOS,
Windows Phone,
Bada OS, BlackBerry,
PC (June ’13)
Android, iOS,
Windows Phone,
Bada OS, BlackBerry,
web page
Android, iOS, and PC
Android,
iOS, Windows Phone,
BlackBerry, PC
Special features
•Create your own
theme for iPhone
and Android
•Plus friend (content
from your favorite
Kpop band)
•Animated messages
(scribble)
•Choose bubble
styles
•Broadcast
•Shake it to connect
•Bot friend •Send music
© 2013 Alan Quayle Business and Service
Development
29
How Operators Feel
© 2013 Alan Quayle Business and Service
Development
30
How Operators Act
MBA BS!
Partnership?
Partnership?
Losers!
Wholesale? This is Retail!
Customers
Direct
Relationship
This is also Retail
Customer Relationship = Survival
Fixed
Voice
($325B)
Mobile
Voice
($615B)
Fixed
Data
($275B)
Mobile
Data
($275B)
Regulated
Services
($1.5T)
Un-
regulated
Services
($650B)-5 to -7%
5.5 to 9%
3 to 4%
0 to 2%
0-2%
Total Telecoms
Services
($2.15T)
3-6%
+ =
Over the Top Messaging
hits SMS growth
Mobile substitution of fixed
broadband with LTE
OTT substitution,
saturation, competition
Mobile and OTT
substitution
Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle
1-3.3%
Threats to Revenue
Brown-Nosed
Middle
Manager!
Market Chatter
is Monopolized
Mobile
Everything,
WebRTC
Customers
Services
Fixed
Voice
($325B)
Mobile
Voice
($615B)
Fixed
Data
($275B)
Mobile
Data
($275B)
Regulated
Services
($1.5T)
Un-
regulated
Services
($650B)-5 to -7%
5.5 to 9%
3 to 4%
0 to 2%
0-2%
Total Telecoms
Services
($2.15T)
3-6%
+ =
Over the Top Messaging
hits SMS growth
Mobile substitution of fixed
broadband with LTE
OTT substitution,
saturation, competition
Mobile and OTT
substitution
Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle
1-3.3%
Threats to Revenue
There’s just 2 things we need to focus on
Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe
Do more VAS!
This is Nature. Crawl, Walk, Run!
Not, Create some PowerPoint
& Go Big Game Hunting.
No. We tried a similar
service in our market
and it failed, and we’re
never ever going to try
again
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It will not work in
our market. Because
I’m a 50 year old guy
who understands all my
customers better than
they know themselves.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. A feature of your
service overlaps with an
existing.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We have a similar
service launched, and
are not going to
experiment in trying to
make it better or
address other customer
segments.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. Our network can
not support such as
service, even though
such services are going
over the top today.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It looks a bit like
Joyn, which we’re not
sure about, but because
it looks a bit like
something we may do
in the future we’re not
going to do it.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It must work across
all devices, even though
most devices will never
use it.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We need additional
(random) features
included before we
could consider it.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It must work on
IMS (even though it
doesn’t need to).
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It must work across
all our customers from
day one, even though
most will never use it.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It must conform to
our process and design
norms. But we’re not
going to tell you what
they are, and you’ll
have to build them in
on your dime.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It must integrate
with all our existing
platforms, even though
it can work fine in the
current configuration.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. It must be delivered
through our preferred
SI or NEP, who will copy
/ kill the service
immediately.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. You must work
through our app store /
portal, which we’re in
the process of closing.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We can only focus
on 4 service launches
per year. We only back
major successes like
Video Telephony,
Mobile TV, Push To Talk,
See What I See…
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We just don’t have
the bandwidth, to do
our job.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We have a network
lock-down as we launch
LTE so cannot do
anything for the next 6-
9 month.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. Bob has left the
business and we’re
waiting on his
replacement, who
never comes.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We’re waiting on
annual budgets to be
confirmed, sometime in
the next 6-12 months.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We’re re-organizing
again this year.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. Someone in the
organization doesn’t
like such services.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. That cannot be
implemented without
changing our IN /
product catalog / CRM /
billing / network.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We cannot bill / sell
services under $5 per
month.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. We have a backlog
of 24 months on billing
updates, even though
the service doesn’t
need to be in that
pipeline.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. You must work
through our innovation
group who we all hate
and ignore as they’re
parasites on our
business.
What do you think of this service idea?
No. You must talk with
Bob who will then pass
you to Bill, who will
then pass you to Mary,
who will then pass you
to Paul, who will then
pass you back to Bob.
What do you think of this service idea?
Telecom Application Developer EcosystemRevenue
Product
Internal Telco Developers
Partner Developers
Telecom App Developers
Mobile App Developers
Long Tail Developers
www.tadsummit.com

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Staring into the Abyss of Declining SMS Revenue

  • 3. ISP
  • 4. OTT VoIP to cost telcos $479b to 2020. — Ovum
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Now buy our reports and bespoke research – even though we’ve never worked in a telco or supplier, we know your business better than you! — Consultants and Analysts
  • 9. Reports of declining SMS revenue are wrong; annual revenue will exceed 2010 levels until 2017. — Portio Research We’re in a very fortunate position, our customers are addicted to the internet, they keep using more and more. — Alan Quayle
  • 10. >50%
  • 11. 70%
  • 12. 1900%
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. But isn’t KakaoTalk killing SKT?
  • 19.
  • 20. The Brain Handles Positive and Negative Information in Differently “The brain handles positive and negative information in different hemispheres. Negative emotions generally involve more thinking, and the information is processed more thoroughly than positive ones.” said Professor Nass, Stanford University
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. KakaoTalk ChatON MyPeople Naver LINE Free text yes yes yes yes Free call yes no yes yes Voice message yes yes yes yes Send picture yes yes yes yes Send video yes yes yes yes Send… Contact Contact, animation message, calendar, document, location Contact, cloud, location Contact, location Stickers and emoticons Basic ones for free, everything else additional charges free free Basic ones for free, everything else additional charges Popup message ? yes yes yes Language support 12 languages 60 languages Korean, English 9 languages Available for Android, iOS, Windows Phone, Bada OS, BlackBerry, PC (June ’13) Android, iOS, Windows Phone, Bada OS, BlackBerry, web page Android, iOS, and PC Android, iOS, Windows Phone, BlackBerry, PC Special features •Create your own theme for iPhone and Android •Plus friend (content from your favorite Kpop band) •Animated messages (scribble) •Choose bubble styles •Broadcast •Shake it to connect •Bot friend •Send music
  • 29. © 2013 Alan Quayle Business and Service Development 29 How Operators Feel
  • 30. © 2013 Alan Quayle Business and Service Development 30 How Operators Act
  • 35. Wholesale? This is Retail! Customers Direct Relationship
  • 36. This is also Retail Customer Relationship = Survival
  • 37. Fixed Voice ($325B) Mobile Voice ($615B) Fixed Data ($275B) Mobile Data ($275B) Regulated Services ($1.5T) Un- regulated Services ($650B)-5 to -7% 5.5 to 9% 3 to 4% 0 to 2% 0-2% Total Telecoms Services ($2.15T) 3-6% + = Over the Top Messaging hits SMS growth Mobile substitution of fixed broadband with LTE OTT substitution, saturation, competition Mobile and OTT substitution Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle 1-3.3% Threats to Revenue
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 47. Fixed Voice ($325B) Mobile Voice ($615B) Fixed Data ($275B) Mobile Data ($275B) Regulated Services ($1.5T) Un- regulated Services ($650B)-5 to -7% 5.5 to 9% 3 to 4% 0 to 2% 0-2% Total Telecoms Services ($2.15T) 3-6% + = Over the Top Messaging hits SMS growth Mobile substitution of fixed broadband with LTE OTT substitution, saturation, competition Mobile and OTT substitution Sources: operator averages across developed and developing markets, supplier estimates, Alan Quayle 1-3.3% Threats to Revenue There’s just 2 things we need to focus on
  • 48. Make Telecoms an Essential Spice for every Business Recipe
  • 50. This is Nature. Crawl, Walk, Run! Not, Create some PowerPoint & Go Big Game Hunting.
  • 51.
  • 52. No. We tried a similar service in our market and it failed, and we’re never ever going to try again What do you think of this service idea?
  • 53. No. It will not work in our market. Because I’m a 50 year old guy who understands all my customers better than they know themselves. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 54. No. A feature of your service overlaps with an existing. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 55. No. We have a similar service launched, and are not going to experiment in trying to make it better or address other customer segments. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 56. No. Our network can not support such as service, even though such services are going over the top today. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 57. No. It looks a bit like Joyn, which we’re not sure about, but because it looks a bit like something we may do in the future we’re not going to do it. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 58. No. It must work across all devices, even though most devices will never use it. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 59. No. We need additional (random) features included before we could consider it. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 60. No. It must work on IMS (even though it doesn’t need to). What do you think of this service idea?
  • 61. No. It must work across all our customers from day one, even though most will never use it. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 62. No. It must conform to our process and design norms. But we’re not going to tell you what they are, and you’ll have to build them in on your dime. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 63. No. It must integrate with all our existing platforms, even though it can work fine in the current configuration. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 64. No. It must be delivered through our preferred SI or NEP, who will copy / kill the service immediately. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 65. No. You must work through our app store / portal, which we’re in the process of closing. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 66. No. We can only focus on 4 service launches per year. We only back major successes like Video Telephony, Mobile TV, Push To Talk, See What I See… What do you think of this service idea?
  • 67. No. We just don’t have the bandwidth, to do our job. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 68. No. We have a network lock-down as we launch LTE so cannot do anything for the next 6- 9 month. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 69. No. Bob has left the business and we’re waiting on his replacement, who never comes. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 70. No. We’re waiting on annual budgets to be confirmed, sometime in the next 6-12 months. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 71. No. We’re re-organizing again this year. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 72. No. Someone in the organization doesn’t like such services. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 73. No. That cannot be implemented without changing our IN / product catalog / CRM / billing / network. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 74. No. We cannot bill / sell services under $5 per month. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 75. No. We have a backlog of 24 months on billing updates, even though the service doesn’t need to be in that pipeline. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 76. No. You must work through our innovation group who we all hate and ignore as they’re parasites on our business. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 77. No. You must talk with Bob who will then pass you to Bill, who will then pass you to Mary, who will then pass you to Paul, who will then pass you back to Bob. What do you think of this service idea?
  • 78.
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81. Telecom Application Developer EcosystemRevenue Product Internal Telco Developers Partner Developers Telecom App Developers Mobile App Developers Long Tail Developers