1. BYOspectrum: Why Private Cellular is a Game-Changer
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
TADSummit, Chicago, 15-16 October 2019
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley

2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
 Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
 Advisor to telcos, regulators, vendors, investors, government
 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
 Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Network Tech, Policy
& Business Models
Communications
Apps & Services
Telecom-Futurism
Industry Analyst
Consulting &
Reports

3. Whose network?
What technology?
Which spectrum?
Which cloud?

4. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019
October 2019
bpd
bps
Gbps
10m
Non-
critical
Function-
critical
90%
99%
99.9%
Rural
Unlicensed
Spectrum
3D
Coverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
Importance
Business-
critical
Safety-
critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:
Latency
Deterministic
Power source
Socioeconomic
Geopolitical
Security model
Mobility
Integration
Bi-directional
Protocols
Lobbying power
1km
>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite
/ TVWS / .11ah
Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay
Biz Model
CSP
Private
Amenity
Community
Decentralised
Indoor
Many dimensions for future wireless
Shared
Secondary
Local
Exclusive
Licenses
Sensed
National
Dynamic

5. Various new forms of 4G & 5G network emerging
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Micro-
cellular
Neutral
host
cellular
Private
cellular

6. Motivations: The 4 C’s of Private Cellular….
Coverage
• In-Building
• Rural
• Industrial
• Offices
• Road / Rail
• Utility
• Metro areas
• Military / Govt
Control
• Security
• Sovereignty
• Customised
• Beyond Wi-Fi
• Deployment
• Lifecycle
• Mobility
• Private QoS
Cost
• Replace
legacy LMR
• Factory 4.0
• Fibre replace
• Avoid carrier
per-GB fees
• Own IoT
connectivity
Compensation
• Productivity
• Private SIMs
• Roaming
• Local MVNO
• Govt funding
• Local FWA
• MNO offload
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019

7. Three major trends catalysing enterprise cellular
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
4G > 5G
Small cells
& cloud
New
(local)
spectrum
models
New applications &
opportunities for indoor,
private & enterprise
wireless
Cloud cores,
eSIM, tools &
enablers
URLLC, slicing,
edge compute
Allowing enterprises
to build private
networks, or new
shared/neutral SPs

8. Spoiler: this isn’t actually a new idea
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
2G > 3G Picocells
New
(local)
spectrum
models

9. New enterprise-centric spectrum models & bands
Localised / indoors / near-term
 US CBRS (low power class A)
 MulteFire / 5G-U (no devices yet)
 5GHz, 2.4GHz, 1.9GHz (Japan)
 UK proposed local 50m radius
licenses at 1.8GHz / 2.3GHz
 mmWave
 Licensed, esp. 26 / 28 / 32 / 37 GHz
 Unlicensed 60GHz (Wi-Fi)
 Indoor unlicensed @26GHz etc
 6GHz (probably unlicensed)
 Germany 3.7-3.8GHz (industrial)
Macro / outdoor / longer term
 Utility / rail allocations <1GHz
 Dutch 3.5GHz
 France 2.6GHz (TETRA replacement)
 Japan mmWave / China etc
 UK (& maybe US) 3.8-4.2GHz
 Other Europe may follow Germany
 US CBRS high-power class B
 MNO 3/4/5G bands secondary use:
2.1GHz, 2.6GHz etc
 Secondary use as licence condition
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019

10. Private cellular networks have a broad range of scales
50m 500m 5km 50km 500km
Private / vertical network scale
Office building
Hotel
Shopping mall
Stadium
Ships
Warehouse / logistics
Finance trading floor
Inside data centres
Hospital complex University
campus
Industrial plant
Airport
Port
Theme park
Business park
Music festival
Smart city
Mining
Oil & gas
Military tactical
Agricultural
Rural neutral host
County-level network
Remote office / retail
Rail network
Highways
Public safety
Utility grid
National wholesale
High-frequency trading
Potential number of networks per major country
1-1010-100100-10001000+
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019

11. Enterprise: multiple indoor use-cases, various requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Public MNO indoor coverage (or offload)
Use of DAS, small cells, WiFi for indoor
coverage of MNO mobile broadband services
Local / Guest IT LAN & Internet access
Mostly Wi-Fi for accessing cloud/web/compute
Local IoT (static)
Various techs for sensors, other fixed IoT
Mix of Wi-Fi, BT, LoRa, NBIoT etc
Local IoT (mobile)
Devices that move or need indoor/outdoor coverage
Local OT (operational / critical / industrial)
Very high reliability / low latency / deterministic
Local voice / comms
Walkie-talkies, 2-way radio etc
Edge
Also: Wide-Area Enterprise
Wireless not covered here

12. Many “moving parts” for private/neutral 4G/5G networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Shared,
local &
unlicensed
Spectrum
IoT / MVNO
/ MVNE
platforms
Small
Cells, WiFi,
cabling
eSIM &
RSP
Backhaul /
Transport
Network
Cloud OSS
/ BSS &
edge-
compute
Number
ranges &
MNCs
Roaming &
Inter-
connect
Devices &
chipsets
Voice, PTT,
video,
messaging
Physical
design,
integrate &
build
For example, how will realtime charging, bundled content, voice calls
or network slicing work while a user roams onto a neutral host?
NFV & SDN
Content &
app partners
Core
network
(EPC or
5GC SA)
Timing
sync

13. Multiple architectures for private / telco & hybrid networks
Source: 5G-ACIAUnknown: When is 5G
Standalone New Core ready
for enterprise deployment?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019

14. Fully private cellular networks are not the only answer…
Private
Wi-Fi &
LPWAN
Enterprise-
focused
MVNO
Enterprise
own MVNO
MNO
custom
network
slice
MNO 3rd
party
network
slice
SliceaaS
Enterprise /
vertical
private core
network
3rd-party
Neutral
Host
mobile
network
Enterprise
private
mobile
network
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Plus many hybrids & variations (eg spectrum /
asset ownership, outsourcing)
Voice /
UC
centric
IoT
centric
Each enterprise model will have its own edge-compute approach

15. Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecard vs. alternative networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
In-Home
Office
Public
Industrial
Outdoors
& mobile
Wi-Fi: whole home
Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon
Wi-Fi: single AP
Wi-Fi: enterprise
Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical
Wi-Fi: limited
4G/5G flat-rate
4G flat-rate
4G metered
4G metered
Fibre / Niche 4G private
4G MBB 4G NB-IoT
Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G/5G
Satellite
?
Private 5G
+TSN?
5G MBB

16. Many interpretations of “neutral host”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Source: Telet Research
Source: Dense Air
Source: Dean Bubley
Source: BT Wholesale
Source: JMA

17. Possible Indoor / private cellular timelines
2019
• Big push by
neutral host
providers
• Focus is
building owners
paying for multi-
MNO indoor
coverage
• MNO spectrum
• Some private
LTE at industrial
/ outdoor sites
• CBRS initial
deployments &
trials
2020
• CBRS starts in
US, mix of
MNOs for extra
spectrum +
some private
• UK-style local
licences begin
adoption
• Europe private
4G as pre-
cursor to 5G
• US 6GHz WiFi
(& 5G??)
2021
• mmWave small
cells maturing
for MNOs
• European
industrial 5G eg
Germany
3.7GHz (SA??)
• New vertical
MNOs emerge
• Neutral CBRS
in offices /
hotels / MDUs
• Growing “in a
box” 4G / 5G
options
2022
• Simpler self-
install private
5G-U products
emerge?
• Europe adopts
CBRS-type
model?
• 5G + MEC +
slicing for
enterprise
networks?
• Many
unknowns
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019

18. 5G will drive transformation of telecom itself
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
National
MNO #1
National
MNO #3
National
MNO #4
TowerCo’s MVNOs
Consolidated national
MNOs
National
MNO #1
City
MNO
Hybrid MNO /
MVNO
Vertical /
industrial
MNO
Transport
MNO
Military /
Public
Safety
MNO
National
MNO
Rural or
indoor
neutral
host
4G-Era Mobile Operators 5G-Era Mobile Operators

19. Whose Network?
Which Spectrum?

20. www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/
https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
Neutral Host
Networks Public
Workshop,
London, Nov
21st