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Resilient City

  1. 1. Beyond Sustainability: Designing our Cities for Resiliency in the face of Global Warming, Peak Oil, and Unsustainable Population Growth<br />by Craig Applegath, FRAIC<br />COHOS EVAMY integratedesign<br />
  2. 2. Introduction<br />
  3. 3. Introduction<br />
  4. 4.
  5. 5. Introduction<br />
  6. 6. Today’s Presentation Agenda:<br />The Un-holy trinity of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Unsustainable Population Growth<br />Resilience <br />Planning and Designing for Resilience<br /><ul><li>Resilient Design Principles
  7. 7. Resilient Planning and Design Strategies</li></ul>www.ResilientCity.org<br />Next Steps<br />Introduction<br />
  8. 8.
  9. 9.
  10. 10.
  11. 11. A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS<br /><ul><li>In 1960 there were 4 Category 5 events – world-wide
  12. 12. In 2008 there were 40 Category 5 Weather related natural disasters
  13. 13. Meteorological and climatologically events have nearly doubled since 1980
  14. 14. In 2008 Economic loses from these disasters was $200 Bil (the most expensive year ever recorded)</li></ul>Source: Wikipedia Commons<br />Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, 2008<br />Near Galveston, Texas<br />Introduction<br />
  15. 15. Source: WorldWatch Institute <br />Source: <br />Source: WorldWatch Institute <br />Introduction<br />
  16. 16. + Peak Oil <br /> and<br />+ Population Growth<br />Introduction<br />
  17. 17. Peak Oil<br />
  18. 18. Billons of Barrels per Year<br />Source: Kelly Doran <br />When will oil peak?<br />Peak Oil<br />
  19. 19. DEMAND<br />SUPPLY<br />PRICE<br />Million Barrels/Day<br />Source: theoildrum.com<br />What happens when oil peaks?<br />Peak Oil<br />
  20. 20. Introduction<br />
  21. 21. Peak Oil: Key Impacts<br />Much higher cost of oil and all fuels<br />“Cars take the off-ramp”<br />Much greater need for pubic mass transit<br />Re-localization of agriculture / food production<br />Re-localization of manufacturing<br />Transformation and/or death of suburbs<br />Peak Oil<br />
  22. 22. Population Growth<br />Population<br />
  23. 23. Key Metrics<br />Current Population = 6.78 Billion (US Census May 2009) <br />Growth rate per year = 80.2 Million (2008)<br />Projected by 2050 = 9.0 Billion ?<br />Growth rate in 2008 = 1.1 %<br />Population<br />
  24. 24. Source: Wikipedia Commons<br />POPULATION GROWTH RATE<br />Population<br />
  25. 25. Source: Wikipedia Commons<br />POPULATION GROWTH – (IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS)<br />Past and projected population growth on different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and its scale is millions of people.<br />Population<br />
  26. 26. Population: Key Impacts<br />Greater use of oil / fossil fuel, and therefore…<br />Greater production of CO2 / Greenhouse Gases<br />Greater demands on all resources, and therefore…<br />Resource shortages, and therefore…<br /> migrating populations, and therefore…<br />Significant in-migration to cities across the world…<br />Population<br />
  27. 27. “So…what can we do about this? <br />Is there anything we can do as architects, planners, landscape architects and engineers that will make a difference?” <br />
  28. 28. Antonio Gomez-Palacio<br />Earle Arney<br />Craig Applegath<br />Peter Howard<br />Brian Watkinson<br />Lyle Scott<br />ResilientCity Discussion Group<br />
  29. 29. PEAK OIL<br />FOOD STRESS<br />COST OF OIL$<br />PUSH UP $ <br />CO2 <br />CLIMATE CHANGE<br />POPULATION GROWTH<br />STRESS<br />CO2 <br />The Un-holy Trinity<br />
  30. 30. Integrated understanding of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Population Growth<br />Impacts flow both ways <br />Need a new conceptual framework<br />Key Issues<br />
  31. 31. Resilience!<br />Resilience<br />
  32. 32. Resilience:<br />“1. (Of a substance etc.) recoiling; springing back; resuming its original shape after bending, stretching, compression, etc.” 2. (of a person) readily recovering from a shock, depression etc. <br />Source: The Canadian Oxford English Dictionary, page 1227<br />Resilience<br />
  33. 33. Resilience:<br />“Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to still remain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” <br />Source: B. Walker et al, ‘Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social-ecological Systems’, Ecology and Society 9 (2) p. 5<br />Resilience<br />
  34. 34. Resilient to What?<br />Environmental stresses of Climate Change<br />Transformation of our economy by Peak Oil<br />Economic and social pressures of population migration<br />Resilience<br />
  35. 35. Achieving Resilience:<br />Principles<br />+<br />Strategies<br />Resilience<br />
  36. 36. Resilient Planning and Design Principles:<br />Carbon neutrality<br />Redundancy of Systems<br />Diversity of Systems<br />Durability<br />Local Self-Sufficiency<br />Responsiveness and Connectedness<br />ResilientCity Principles<br />
  37. 37. Resilient City Planning Strategies:<br />Transform Circulation<br />Reduce Energy Requirements of Existing Fabric<br />Re-localize key functions<br />Increase Density / Decrease Height / Mixed Use<br />ResilientCity Planning Strategies<br />
  38. 38. Resilient Building Design Strategies:<br />Reduce Energy and Carbon Input Requirements <br />Re-localize Key Processes and Materials<br />Design for Flexibility and Re-use <br />Design for Durability<br />Design for Integration with Environment<br />Planning and Design<br />
  39. 39. Tools for further developing strategies and good exemplars?<br />
  40. 40. www.ResilientCity.org<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  41. 41. HOME PAGE<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  42. 42. ResilientCity.org Goals:<br />1. Raise Awareness<br />2. Shift thinking : sustainability &gt;&gt;&gt; resilience<br />3. Provide Resources to develop solutions<br />
  43. 43. RESOURCES<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  44. 44. ESSENTIAL WEB LINKS<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  45. 45. ESSENTIAL BOOKS<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  46. 46. ResilientCity BLOG<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  47. 47. DESIGN COMPETITION<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  48. 48. Mike Haggerty, Brooklyn, NY<br />Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  49. 49. Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  50. 50. Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  51. 51. Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  52. 52. Robert Shepherd, San Francisco, CA<br />Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  53. 53. Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  54. 54. Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block<br />
  55. 55. Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block<br />
  56. 56. Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />
  57. 57. Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />
  58. 58.
  59. 59.
  60. 60. “OK…But what do we do about this when we get back to the office?” <br />
  61. 61. Five Suggestions:<br />Stop thinking only about the impact we are having on the environment; and… <br />Start also thinking about how we will deal with the impacts of environment as it starts to push back!<br />Start looking over the horizon to the time when the economics of Peak Oil will change how our cities function – creating an urgent need for re-localization of food and manufacturing.<br />Start thinking about how our cities will deal with the huge in-migrations of environmental refugees.<br />Take advantage of our ResilientCity.org resources, and please share your ideas with us!<br />
  62. 62. “The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew.” <br />Abraham Lincoln<br />
  63. 63. For more information about the planning and design of resilient cities:<br />www.ResilientCity.org<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />
  64. 64. Thank you!<br />Craig Applegath<br />COHOS EVAMY integratedesign<br />
  65. 65.
  66. 66. Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  67. 67. Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />
  68. 68. Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block<br />
  69. 69. Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />
  70. 70. Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />
  71. 71. Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />

Notes de l'éditeur

  • Welcome. If I remember correctly it is coming up to about 8 years ago now that a few of us that were Part of the RAIC’s Sustainable Design Committee and when it came its conclusion we decided to form Sustainable Buildings Canada. So speaking today is a great pleasure. This presentation is an incomplete story – or should I say a story in the making – about how we as architects and urban designers are going to come to terms with Climate Change and Peak Oil in the context of continued and unsustainable global population growth.
  • Before I put up the standard agenda slide, I would like to start my presentation by telling you where the idea for the notion of creating Resilient Cities came from. About 7 years ago, back in 2002 I had been on a speaking tour talking about how to create more environmentally responsible and sustainable healthcare facilities.While I was speaking at the CleanMed Conference in 2002 in Chicago, one of the attendees at my presentation asked me the following question at the end of my presentation:He said “I can buy the idea of trying to plan and design our healthcare facilities to be more energy efficient, and have a lower impact on the environment, but shouldn’t we also be planning for the inevitable future consequences of Global Warming – with its increased number of storms, population migrations, massive agri-failure, water shortages, and economic decline….!”What a shockingly obvious, and over-the-horizon-looking question. More importantly, what an important question! And yet, if I can be so bold, what a politically incorrect question!
  • Typically most sustainable design discussions are about what we as architects, interior designers, and urban designers can do to reduce our carbon foot print, and create more sustainable cities and buildings. Indeed! All of our focus for the past 10 years has been on our impact on the world … on the kinds of effects our profligate use of energy and its massive production of carbon will have on the environment ….as if the environment was “out there” and somehow separate from us.
  • In fact, diminishing our impact on the environment through green building has become a mature industry in the past decade. One has only to think about how much these organization have changed the way the design and building industry thinks to realize that we are now well past the early adopter phase in this industry.