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Beyond Sustainability: Designing our Cities for Resiliency in the face of Global Warming, Peak Oil, and Unsustainable Population Growth<br />by Craig Applegath, FRAIC<br />COHOS EVAMY integratedesign<br />

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Introduction<br />

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Introduction<br />

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Introduction<br />

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Today’s Presentation Agenda:<br />The Un-holy trinity of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Unsustainable Population Growth<br />Resilience <br />Planning and Designing for Resilience<br /><ul><li>Resilient Design Principles

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Resilient Planning and Design Strategies</li></ul>www.ResilientCity.org<br />Next Steps<br />Introduction<br />

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A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS<br /><ul><li>In 1960 there were 4 Category 5 events – world-wide

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In 2008 there were 40 Category 5 Weather related natural disasters

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Meteorological and climatologically events have nearly doubled since 1980

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In 2008 Economic loses from these disasters was $200 Bil (the most expensive year ever recorded)</li></ul>Source: Wikipedia Commons<br />Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, 2008<br />Near Galveston, Texas<br />Introduction<br />

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Source: WorldWatch Institute <br />Source: <br />Source: WorldWatch Institute <br />Introduction<br />

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+ Peak Oil <br /> and<br />+ Population Growth<br />Introduction<br />

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Peak Oil<br />

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Billons of Barrels per Year<br />Source: Kelly Doran <br />When will oil peak?<br />Peak Oil<br />

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DEMAND<br />SUPPLY<br />PRICE<br />Million Barrels/Day<br />Source: theoildrum.com<br />What happens when oil peaks?<br />Peak Oil<br />

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Introduction<br />

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Peak Oil: Key Impacts<br />Much higher cost of oil and all fuels<br />“Cars take the off-ramp”<br />Much greater need for pubic mass transit<br />Re-localization of agriculture / food production<br />Re-localization of manufacturing<br />Transformation and/or death of suburbs<br />Peak Oil<br />

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Population Growth<br />Population<br />

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Key Metrics<br />Current Population = 6.78 Billion (US Census May 2009) <br />Growth rate per year = 80.2 Million (2008)<br />Projected by 2050 = 9.0 Billion ?<br />Growth rate in 2008 = 1.1 %<br />Population<br />

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Source: Wikipedia Commons<br />POPULATION GROWTH RATE<br />Population<br />

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Source: Wikipedia Commons<br />POPULATION GROWTH – (IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS)<br />Past and projected population growth on different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and its scale is millions of people.<br />Population<br />

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Population: Key Impacts<br />Greater use of oil / fossil fuel, and therefore…<br />Greater production of CO2 / Greenhouse Gases<br />Greater demands on all resources, and therefore…<br />Resource shortages, and therefore…<br /> migrating populations, and therefore…<br />Significant in-migration to cities across the world…<br />Population<br />

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“So…what can we do about this? <br />Is there anything we can do as architects, planners, landscape architects and engineers that will make a difference?” <br />

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Antonio Gomez-Palacio<br />Earle Arney<br />Craig Applegath<br />Peter Howard<br />Brian Watkinson<br />Lyle Scott<br />ResilientCity Discussion Group<br />

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PEAK OIL<br />FOOD STRESS<br />COST OF OIL$<br />PUSH UP $ <br />CO2 <br />CLIMATE CHANGE<br />POPULATION GROWTH<br />STRESS<br />CO2 <br />The Un-holy Trinity<br />

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Integrated understanding of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Population Growth<br />Impacts flow both ways <br />Need a new conceptual framework<br />Key Issues<br />

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Resilience!<br />Resilience<br />

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Resilience:<br />“1. (Of a substance etc.) recoiling; springing back; resuming its original shape after bending, stretching, compression, etc.” 2. (of a person) readily recovering from a shock, depression etc. <br />Source: The Canadian Oxford English Dictionary, page 1227<br />Resilience<br />

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Resilience:<br />“Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to still remain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” <br />Source: B. Walker et al, ‘Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social-ecological Systems’, Ecology and Society 9 (2) p. 5<br />Resilience<br />

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Resilient to What?<br />Environmental stresses of Climate Change<br />Transformation of our economy by Peak Oil<br />Economic and social pressures of population migration<br />Resilience<br />

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Achieving Resilience:<br />Principles<br />+<br />Strategies<br />Resilience<br />

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Resilient Planning and Design Principles:<br />Carbon neutrality<br />Redundancy of Systems<br />Diversity of Systems<br />Durability<br />Local Self-Sufficiency<br />Responsiveness and Connectedness<br />ResilientCity Principles<br />

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Resilient City Planning Strategies:<br />Transform Circulation<br />Reduce Energy Requirements of Existing Fabric<br />Re-localize key functions<br />Increase Density / Decrease Height / Mixed Use<br />ResilientCity Planning Strategies<br />

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Resilient Building Design Strategies:<br />Reduce Energy and Carbon Input Requirements <br />Re-localize Key Processes and Materials<br />Design for Flexibility and Re-use <br />Design for Durability<br />Design for Integration with Environment<br />Planning and Design<br />

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Tools for further developing strategies and good exemplars?<br />

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www.ResilientCity.org<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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HOME PAGE<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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ResilientCity.org Goals:<br />1. Raise Awareness<br />2. Shift thinking : sustainability &gt;&gt;&gt; resilience<br />3. Provide Resources to develop solutions<br />

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RESOURCES<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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ESSENTIAL WEB LINKS<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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ESSENTIAL BOOKS<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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ResilientCity BLOG<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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DESIGN COMPETITION<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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Mike Haggerty, Brooklyn, NY<br />Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Robert Shepherd, San Francisco, CA<br />Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block<br />

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Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block<br />

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Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />

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Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />

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“OK…But what do we do about this when we get back to the office?” <br />

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Five Suggestions:<br />Stop thinking only about the impact we are having on the environment; and… <br />Start also thinking about how we will deal with the impacts of environment as it starts to push back!<br />Start looking over the horizon to the time when the economics of Peak Oil will change how our cities function – creating an urgent need for re-localization of food and manufacturing.<br />Start thinking about how our cities will deal with the huge in-migrations of environmental refugees.<br />Take advantage of our ResilientCity.org resources, and please share your ideas with us!<br />

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“The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew.” <br />Abraham Lincoln<br />

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For more information about the planning and design of resilient cities:<br />www.ResilientCity.org<br />ResilientCity.org Website<br />

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Thank you!<br />Craig Applegath<br />COHOS EVAMY integratedesign<br />

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Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 4: Densify an Urban Neighbourhood and Re-localize Food<br />

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Scenario 2: Design a High Density Urban Block<br />

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Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />

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Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />

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Scenario 1: Reclad an Existing Urban Building<br />