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Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication
… a longer look in the rear-view mirror

             • agrarian revolution
                – four crop rotation
             • industrial revolution
                – Joseph Jacquard’s Loom
             • mass production
                – division and specialisation of
                  labour
             • “digital revolution”
                – economic and societal
                  innovation: enabled by IT
seamless communication,
    “classic edition”
ubiquitous computing
17 Billion Networked Devices by 2012 (IDC)


                        Appliances/Toys: 11,000M

                       Industrial/Automotive: 400M

                            Entertainment: 1,300M

                               Handhelds: 2,600M

                               Computers: 1,080M
networks everywhere

                     Government
    Personal/Home                 Social
                     Networks
    Networks                      Networks


                                                        HR
Business                                 Customer
                                         Relationship
Networks
                                         Networks
                                                             Purchasing



                                  Scientific
       Value Chain
                                  Networks
       Networks


                                  Fulfillment
Hyperconnectivity is happening
      much faster than many expected …
Person to Person                Person to Machine                  Machine to Machine
                                • eHealth: 1 million people        • 98% of all CPUs today are
                                  subscribe to LifeOnKey             embedded (by 2010 – 14 billion
                                  (online access to personal         connected, embedded devices)
                                  health information)
                                                                          • Eye-Fi: camera uploads
                                • China: Is issuing >1B RFID-               photos wirelessly
                                  enabled citizen identification
                                  cards
• Western Europe – 112                                             • Over next 5 years, 10 million sensors
  mobile phones per 100                                              will be installed in homes to enable
  people (Italy, 147 per 100)                                        independent living for elderly and
                                •Emergence of                        disabled
      •One Laptop                wireless
       Per Child                 (networked)            OneTouch
                                                        Meter
                                 glucometers
                                                                   • Healthcare industry’s
                                • Amazon’s Kindle                    consumption of RFID tags &
                                  launched Nov 07; sold              services will increase from
                                  out in 4 hrs                       $US90M to $US2.1B in next 8
                                                                     years
  6                                                                              (With thanks to Nortel)
the landline era


                                            Mobile, VOI
                                            P, Video, IM,
                                               Blogs ….


1876            1970’-1990’s
                                  2006
                                   an
                               innovation
                                explosion
personal

                 transactional




informational



                “Are social computing themes like user-
                generated content and communication
                fundamentally changing the rules of
                business? We think they are—in a big way.”
                Forrester Research
key enablers

                                  COMMUNICATIONS-ENABLED
TRUE BROADBRAND                              APPLICATIONS

4G (WiMAX, LTE)
                                                        Unified
                                                 Communications

Carrier
Ethernet                                             Real-Time
                                               SOA/Web Services

40/100G
Optical                                       Strategic Partners/
                                                      Ecosystem


Unwired                                         Communications
Enterprise                                          Integration
9
                            (With thanks to Nortel)
convergence ….
     • … of networks,
       protocols and interfaces
       …
     • … and multi-purpose
       devices …
… and divergence
• … of devices and experiences
today’s seamless communications
       •   games console (local & online)
       •   video on demand
       •   DVD/CD player
       •   Media Centre extender
       •   ethernet/Internet enabled
       •   Instant Messaging
       •   Voice and video comms over IP

                                 •   camera
                                 •   email/Internet browsing
                                 •   GPS/maps
                                 •   MP3 player
                                 •   text messaging
                                 •   Camcorder
                                 •   voice recorder
                                 •   … oh, and a phone too!
… the Internet is just the start …

           • disruption
             – scale …?
             – who knows, but consider this:
                • Industrial Revolution:
                    – by its end, one worker could do
                      work that would have taken 200
                      people at its beginning
                • UK coal industry:
                    – 1920: 950,000 miners
                    – 2005: just 9 collieries left … with
                      3,000 miners
mobile communiction
       • mobility is becoming the modus
         operandi – no longer the exception
       • not just a technology issue:
          – enables new ways of structuring and
            running an organisation (… and society?)
          – can lead to truly flexible working (but HR
            and other issues need to be addressed
            in tandem)
       • the convergence that underpins
         ubiquitous mobility is driving a
         divergence of organisational models
       • the mobile device often seen as the
         focal point of convergence due to its
         ubiquity and broad take-up
a disruptive, digital age

              •   connected
                   – connected systems (SOA)
                   – connected people (improved
                     collaboration)
                   – connected devices (keeping people
                     permanently in touch with their
                     information), mobility
              •   information driven
                   – increased use of information and
                     meta-data to automate more business
                     and IT processes
                   – improved capabilities to manage,
                     search and analyse vast quantities of
                     data from multiple sources
              •   experiences
                   – provision of client devices and
                     environments that make information
                     more accessible and compelling
another convergence?
... the future workstation?
surface computing




  •   display-centric   •   multi user
  •   direct Input      •   tangible objects

blending of physical and virtual interaction
Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication
Source: “Sketching
User Experiences”, Bill
Buxton
Nortel’s unified
                    communications vision
                                                      Identity
All Devices, Applications, Interfaces   Context




                                         Presence
                                         Location
                                                        Policy


Services                                Environment




 21
Cslate




         Source:
         Microsoft
         Research
augmented bowl




                 Source:
                 Microsoft
                 Research
Sourced from: http://www.intersurgtech.com/media.html
Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication
“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be
those who cannot read and write, but those
  who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn”
                                Rethinking the Future,
                                          Alvin Toffler
the politics of magic
• for the last 40 years …
   – technology has been a tool
   – use of the tool was a choice
• the next 10 years
   – technology becomes an essential utility, a policy lever
   – what happens to choice now?
• will public policy and social acceptance (and
  understanding) issues gate the realisation of
  technology’s true potential?
identity, security, privacy …?
             subscribes to
                                         shops at
              Vodaphone
             (source: mobile phone)      Morrisons
                                      (source: loyalty card and
                                            credit card)




  overweight
   (source: connected
    bathroom scales)
                                                     alcoholic
                                                  (source: The Red Lion
                                                          EPOS)




                                                 iPod owner
                                                   (source: RFID tag




fashion victim
(source: street CCTV)
“… our external experience is never direct; nor do we
  experience the signals in our nerves directly - we would
    not know what to make of the streams of electrical
 crackles that they carry. What we experience is a virtual-
  reality rendering, conveniently generated for us by our
unconscious minds from sensory data plus complex inborn
    and acquired theories (i.e. programs) about how to
    interpret them ... all reasoning, all thinking and all
     external experiences are forms of virtual reality.quot;

       (David Deutsch, “The Fabric of Reality”, 1998, pp. 120-121)
summary
... the best way to predict the future is to invent it yourself ...
acknowledgements
    • Nortel:
        – Kevin Webb
        – Geoff Hall
        – John Roese
    • Microsoft Research ... and in particular:
        –   Bill Buxton
        –   Ken Wood
        –   Steve Hodges
        –   Antonio Criminisi
        –   Stephen Emmott
        –   http://research.microsoft.com
    • the Institute of Creative Technologies (IOCT):
        – Professor Andrew Hugill, Director
        – http://www.ioct.dmu.ac.uk/
beyond the
                                                               Internet:
                                                            seamless global
                                                            communication

                               Jerry Fishenden
                         National Technology Officer,
                                Microsoft UK
                           blog http://ntouk.com
                                         © 2008. All rights reserved.
                               This presentation is for informational purposes only.
NEITHER JERRY NOR MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IN THIS PRESENTATION – BUT HOPE YOU
                                           ENJOYED IT ANYWAY

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Beyond the Internet: Seamless Global Communication

  • 2. … a longer look in the rear-view mirror • agrarian revolution – four crop rotation • industrial revolution – Joseph Jacquard’s Loom • mass production – division and specialisation of labour • “digital revolution” – economic and societal innovation: enabled by IT
  • 3. seamless communication, “classic edition”
  • 4. ubiquitous computing 17 Billion Networked Devices by 2012 (IDC) Appliances/Toys: 11,000M Industrial/Automotive: 400M Entertainment: 1,300M Handhelds: 2,600M Computers: 1,080M
  • 5. networks everywhere Government Personal/Home Social Networks Networks Networks HR Business Customer Relationship Networks Networks Purchasing Scientific Value Chain Networks Networks Fulfillment
  • 6. Hyperconnectivity is happening much faster than many expected … Person to Person Person to Machine Machine to Machine • eHealth: 1 million people • 98% of all CPUs today are subscribe to LifeOnKey embedded (by 2010 – 14 billion (online access to personal connected, embedded devices) health information) • Eye-Fi: camera uploads • China: Is issuing >1B RFID- photos wirelessly enabled citizen identification cards • Western Europe – 112 • Over next 5 years, 10 million sensors mobile phones per 100 will be installed in homes to enable people (Italy, 147 per 100) independent living for elderly and •Emergence of disabled •One Laptop wireless Per Child (networked) OneTouch Meter glucometers • Healthcare industry’s • Amazon’s Kindle consumption of RFID tags & launched Nov 07; sold services will increase from out in 4 hrs $US90M to $US2.1B in next 8 years 6 (With thanks to Nortel)
  • 7. the landline era Mobile, VOI P, Video, IM, Blogs …. 1876 1970’-1990’s 2006 an innovation explosion
  • 8. personal transactional informational “Are social computing themes like user- generated content and communication fundamentally changing the rules of business? We think they are—in a big way.” Forrester Research
  • 9. key enablers COMMUNICATIONS-ENABLED TRUE BROADBRAND APPLICATIONS 4G (WiMAX, LTE) Unified Communications Carrier Ethernet Real-Time SOA/Web Services 40/100G Optical Strategic Partners/ Ecosystem Unwired Communications Enterprise Integration 9 (With thanks to Nortel)
  • 10. convergence …. • … of networks, protocols and interfaces … • … and multi-purpose devices …
  • 11. … and divergence • … of devices and experiences
  • 12. today’s seamless communications • games console (local & online) • video on demand • DVD/CD player • Media Centre extender • ethernet/Internet enabled • Instant Messaging • Voice and video comms over IP • camera • email/Internet browsing • GPS/maps • MP3 player • text messaging • Camcorder • voice recorder • … oh, and a phone too!
  • 13. … the Internet is just the start … • disruption – scale …? – who knows, but consider this: • Industrial Revolution: – by its end, one worker could do work that would have taken 200 people at its beginning • UK coal industry: – 1920: 950,000 miners – 2005: just 9 collieries left … with 3,000 miners
  • 14. mobile communiction • mobility is becoming the modus operandi – no longer the exception • not just a technology issue: – enables new ways of structuring and running an organisation (… and society?) – can lead to truly flexible working (but HR and other issues need to be addressed in tandem) • the convergence that underpins ubiquitous mobility is driving a divergence of organisational models • the mobile device often seen as the focal point of convergence due to its ubiquity and broad take-up
  • 15. a disruptive, digital age • connected – connected systems (SOA) – connected people (improved collaboration) – connected devices (keeping people permanently in touch with their information), mobility • information driven – increased use of information and meta-data to automate more business and IT processes – improved capabilities to manage, search and analyse vast quantities of data from multiple sources • experiences – provision of client devices and environments that make information more accessible and compelling
  • 17. ... the future workstation?
  • 18. surface computing • display-centric • multi user • direct Input • tangible objects blending of physical and virtual interaction
  • 21. Nortel’s unified communications vision Identity All Devices, Applications, Interfaces Context Presence Location Policy Services Environment 21
  • 22. Cslate Source: Microsoft Research
  • 23. augmented bowl Source: Microsoft Research
  • 26. “The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn” Rethinking the Future, Alvin Toffler
  • 27. the politics of magic • for the last 40 years … – technology has been a tool – use of the tool was a choice • the next 10 years – technology becomes an essential utility, a policy lever – what happens to choice now? • will public policy and social acceptance (and understanding) issues gate the realisation of technology’s true potential?
  • 28. identity, security, privacy …? subscribes to shops at Vodaphone (source: mobile phone) Morrisons (source: loyalty card and credit card) overweight (source: connected bathroom scales) alcoholic (source: The Red Lion EPOS) iPod owner (source: RFID tag fashion victim (source: street CCTV)
  • 29. “… our external experience is never direct; nor do we experience the signals in our nerves directly - we would not know what to make of the streams of electrical crackles that they carry. What we experience is a virtual- reality rendering, conveniently generated for us by our unconscious minds from sensory data plus complex inborn and acquired theories (i.e. programs) about how to interpret them ... all reasoning, all thinking and all external experiences are forms of virtual reality.quot; (David Deutsch, “The Fabric of Reality”, 1998, pp. 120-121)
  • 31. ... the best way to predict the future is to invent it yourself ...
  • 32. acknowledgements • Nortel: – Kevin Webb – Geoff Hall – John Roese • Microsoft Research ... and in particular: – Bill Buxton – Ken Wood – Steve Hodges – Antonio Criminisi – Stephen Emmott – http://research.microsoft.com • the Institute of Creative Technologies (IOCT): – Professor Andrew Hugill, Director – http://www.ioct.dmu.ac.uk/
  • 33. beyond the Internet: seamless global communication Jerry Fishenden National Technology Officer, Microsoft UK blog http://ntouk.com © 2008. All rights reserved. This presentation is for informational purposes only. NEITHER JERRY NOR MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IN THIS PRESENTATION – BUT HOPE YOU ENJOYED IT ANYWAY

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. introduction