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LCC copper gold report 20140317
1. 17th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
. Page 1 / 4
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
COPPER SUFFERING COLLATERAL DAMAGE
Global Economic Fundamentals
Source: Capital IQ, COMEX, LCC, LME, SHFE, Thomson Reuters, WGC
Precious Metals Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r Base Metals Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r
Gold (A$/oz) 1,532 ▲ 3.9% ▲ 5% ▲ 14% Copper (A$/lb) 3.26 ▼ (5.8%) ▼ (10%) ▼ (13%)
Gold (US$/oz) 1,383 ▲ 3.3% ▲ 5% ▲ 15% Copper (US$/lb) 2.94 ▼ (6.4%) ▼ (10%) ▼ (12%)
Silver (US$/oz) 21.4 ▲ 2.3% ▼ (0%) ▲ 11% Copper (RMB/t) 44,380 ▼ (9.1%) ▼ (12%) ▼ (15%)
Platinum (US$/oz) 1,465 ▼ (1.3%) ▲ 2% ▲ 7% Cobalt (US$/lb) 14.06 ▼ (0.6%) ▼ (2%) ▲ 5%
Palladium (US$/oz) 769 ▼ (1.6%) ▲ 4% ▲ 7% Molybdenum (US$/lb) 10.43 ▼ (2.1%) ▲ 1% ▲ 7%
Iron Ore (US$/t) 111 ▼ (2.0%) ▼ (9%) ▼ (17%) Nickel (US$/lb) 7.17 ▲ 3.1% ▲ 11% ▲ 13%
Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 98 ▼ (3.0%) ▼ (2%) ▼ (0%) Lead (US$/lb) 0.92 ▼ (3.2%) ▼ (7%) ▼ (9%)
Gas H.Hub (US$/m btu) 4.37 ▼ (4.2%) ▼ (4%) ▲ 4% Zinc (US$/lb) 0.90 ▼ (4.9%) ▼ (4%) ▼ (5%)
Uranium (US$/lb) 35 ▼ (0.6%) ▼ (3%) ▲ 1% Tin (US$/lb) 10.48 ▼ (0.2%) ▲ 1% ▲ 2%
Currencies & Indices Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r Global Markets Last Week r 4-Wk r YTD r
AUD/USD 0.903 ▼ (0.6%) ▲ 0% ▼ (1%) ASX 200 5,329 ▼ (2.4%) ▼ (1%) ▼ (0%)
RMB/USD 0.163 ▼ (0.4%) ▼ (1%) ▼ (0%) Dow Jones 16,066 ▼ (2.4%) ▼ (1%) ▼ (3%)
CAD/USD 0.901 ▼ (0.1%) ▼ (1%) ▼ (0%) S&P 500 Index 1,841 ▼ (2.2%) ▲ 0% ▼ (1%)
EUR/USD 1.391 ▲ 0.3% ▲ 2% ▲ 0% Shang Hai Index 2,004 ▼ (2.8%) ▼ (5%) ▼ (3%)
ASX Ordinary Gold 2,634 ▲ 0.2% ▲ 4% ▲ 2% Hang Seng Index 21,539 ▼ (2.6%) ▼ (3%) ▼ (5%)
TSX Global Gold 213 — 0.0% ▲ 6% ▲ 6% Nikkei 225 14,328 ▼ (6.2%) ▲ 0% ▼ (12%)
ASX 300 Metals & Mining 3,210 ▲ 1.8% ▼ (6%) ▼ (5%) FTSE 100 Index 6,528 ▼ (3.4%) ▼ (2%) ▼ (2%)
TSX Global Mining 75 ▲ 6.1% ▼ (3%) ▼ (1%) Euro STOXX 50 Index 3,005 ▼ (3.1%) ▼ (4%) ▼ (5%)
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
0
100
200
300
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Thousands
Gold PriceVolume
A$/oz
US$/oz
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
0
100
200
300
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Thousands
LME Copper Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot)
Price (A$/lb)
Price (US$/lb)
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec Jan Feb Mar
COMEX Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t)
Price (US$/lb)
44000
46000
48000
50000
52000
54000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Thousands
SHFE Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks ('000 t)
Price (RMB/t)
44000
46000
48000
50000
52000
54000
0
25
50
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Thousands
SHFE Copper Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot)
Price (RMB/t)
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
0
25
50
75
100
Dec Jan Feb Mar
COMEX Copper Price and Volume
Volume ('000 lot)
Price (US$/lb)1500
2000
2500
3000
Dec Jan Feb Mar
S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index
(XGD)
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14
China Copper Imports
Tonnes (kt)
Copper Price
2.90
3.10
3.30
3.50
3.70
0
100
200
300
400
Dec Jan Feb Mar
LME Copper Price and Stocks
Stocks (kt)
Price (A$/lb)
Price (US$/lb)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13
World Gold Demand and Supply
Total Demand (tonnes)
Total Supply (tonnes)
Gold Price (US$/oz, RHS)
Gold Demand
$2.92
$2.93
$2.94
$2.95
$2.96
$2.97
Cash 3 Months Dec 1 Dec 2 Dec 3
LME copper forward curve
Seller
Buyer
2. 17th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
. Page 2 / 4
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Markets & Majors
On the back of bad economic news out of China – responsible for
42% of the world’s global copper consumption – the price of
copper has plummeted more than 6% in USD and 9% in RMB
over last week. Chinese overall exports slid a stunning 18% year
on year and imports of copper fell 30% in February from the
month before, but increased 26% year on year. The current slump
has been exacerbated by distortions in the Chinese copper
market, where the red metal is often used as collateral for loans.
Last week a solar-cell producer became the first Chinese
company in history to default on a corporate bond, sending
shivers through the Chinese industry and sparking fears of a
knock-on effect. The worsening credit situation in the country
could see the copper market enter a vicious circle. Borrowers,
forced by their bankers to repay loans will have to sell the metal
into an already well-supplied market and in the process pushing
down market prices even further. Shanghai Future Exchange
copper inventories increased to 213,000 tonnes, while LME and
COMEX inventories slumped further leading to another decrease
in global inventories. Of note is the strong increase in volumes
traded on both the LME (+65% w/w) and COMEX (+96% w/w).
European manufacturers are seeing the most favourable
conditions for buying copper with the copper price drop and the
euro at a 2-½ year high against the US dollar. In parallel, Chinese
funds have been building up bets against copper in a market edgy
over the slowing Chinese demand and fears that credit upheaval
could unwind financing deals. The scale of the sell-off shows that
Chinese funds are gaining greater sway over global commodity
markets.
Metal Bulletin quoted Jiangxi Copper Co Ltd Chairman and Party
Secretary Baoming Li as saying that China's copper demand will
grow in line with the country's growth target of 7.5% for the year.
Sydney Morning Herald - Rio Tinto subsidiary Bougainville Copper
told shareholders that the visit by Papua New Guinean Prime
Minister Peter O'Neill to Bougainville Island earlier this year
prompted conciliatory sentiment toward production resuming at its
Panguna copper project.
Coeur Mining plans to offer US$150 million of 7.875% senior
notes due 2021. The notes form a further issuance of the
company's US$300m outstanding principal amount of 7.875%
senior notes, also due 2021, and when issued, will form a single
series of debt securities with existing notes.
Peru's Mines and Energy Minister announced that copper
production increased by 20% year on year in January to 111,855 t.
The increase was reportedly due to higher production from the
country's biggest mines Antamina and Cerro Verde. However,
during said period, the country saw its gold production drop 6% to
11,089 kg because of lower output from Yanacocha. The Minister
also indicated that five copper mines with an estimated investment
of US$13 billion are expected to commence production before
2016, raising the country's output of to 2.8 million tonnes from 1.3
million tonnes in 2013.
Copper Explorers & Emerging Producers
Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.90
Copper Producers
Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90
Mergers & Acquisitions
Mining Weekly - AngloGold Ashanti reiterated its dedication to
both Australia and South Africa as destinations for investment,
with its chairperson, Sipho Pityana, saying the company was
looking to develop a well-balanced portfolio, by both divesting
uneconomic assets and possibly acquiring others.
ABM Resources (ASX: ABU) secured a A$19.6 million strategic
investment from Pacific Road Capital. On completion of the
transaction, Pacific Road Capital will hold 19.9% of shares on
issue.
Blackham Resources (ASX: BLK) expects the completion of the
acquisition of the Wiluna plant and infrastructure this week as all
conditions precedent are now satisfied. The acquisition
significantly reduces the timeline and capital cost for developing
the Mathilda gold project.
MMG’s management has not confirmed that it remains the only
remaning bidder for the Las Bambas copper project in Peru,
despite Glencore Xstrata’s management announcing it.
Code Company Name
Close
Price
Week r YTD r
Market
Cap (A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
AVI Avalon Minerals 0.008 — 0% (20% ) 10 2.7 7
AZS Azure Minerals 0.033 ▼ (6% ) 10% 24 2.3 21
BMB Balamara Resources 0.12 ▼ (12% ) 21% 38 1.2 37
BTR Blackthorn Resources 0.16 — 0% (38% ) 26 16.3 10
BOC Bougainville Copper 0.57 ▲ 12% 20% 229 6.2 222
ERM Emmerson Resources 0.038 ▲ 6% (10% ) 10.0 1.2 9
ENR Encounter Resources 0.25 ▲ 11% 32% 33 3.9 29
ESR Estrella Resources 0.12 — 0% (31% ) 12 2.0 10
GCR Golden Cross Resources 0.005 ▼ (17% ) 0% 9 1.1 8
HAV Havilah Resources 0.24 ▲ 4% (4% ) 29 3.5 25
HCH Hot Chili 0.44 ▼ (3% ) 2% 151 8.2 143
HIG Highlands Pacific 0.073 — 0% 20% 62 9.6 53
IRN Indophil Resources 0.19 — 0% 12% 223 215.1 7
KGL KGL Resources 0.110 — 0% 5% 15 7.8 8
KDR Kidman Resources 0.140 ▼ (3% ) (24% ) 18 3.7 14
MMC Marengo Mining 0.015 ▼ (6% ) 0% 17 4.5 40
MNC Metminco 0.027 ▼ (21% ) (13% ) 47 7.8 39
PEX Peel Mining 0.25 ▼ (9% ) (4% ) 33 3.8 29
RDM Red Metal 0.18 ▲ 3% 20% 26 1.1 25
RXM Rex Minerals 0.39 ▼ (8% ) (20% ) 84 20.9 63
SBR Sabre Resources 0.043 ▲ 8% 0% 10 4.1 6
SUH Southern Hemisphere 0.050 ▲ 11% 0% 10 0.5 9
TLM Talisman Mining 0.11 ▼ (9% ) 0% 14 17.3 (4)
VXR Venturex Resources 0.010 ▲ 25% 0% 15 3.4 12
YTC YTC Resources 0.25 — 0% 9% 82 25.8 121
AVB Avanco Resources 0.066 ▼ (4% ) (7% ) 89 16.6 73
CDU Cudeco 1.56 ▼ (12% ) (14% ) 364 47.4 317
FND Finders Resources 0.17 ▼ (8% ) (21% ) 91 12.9 78
Code Company Name
Close
Price
Week r YTD r
Market
Cap (A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV (A$m)
EV/
EBITDA
ABY Aditya Birla Minerals 0.32 ▼ (3% ) (7% ) 99 118 (19) NM
AOH Altona Mining 0.16 ▼ (6% ) (6% ) 82 20 73 5.5x
DML Discovery Metals 0.030 ▼ (17% ) (43% ) 17 13 175 NM
HGO Hillgrove Resources 0.088 ▼ (2% ) (2% ) 104 17 132 3.8x
OZL OZ Minerals 3.45 ▼ (12% ) 10% 1,047 364 683 3.9x
PNA PanAust 1.60 ▼ (12% ) (12% ) 974 145 1,009 4.1x
SFR Sandfire Resources 5.58 ▼ (10% ) (14% ) 868 75 1,023 8.1x
SRQ Straits Resources 0.005 — 0% (38% ) 6 12 116 NM
TGS Tiger Resources 0.39 ▼ (10% ) 12% 309 42 323 6.1x
3. 17th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
. Page 3 / 4
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Gold Explorers & Emerging Producers
Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90
ASX-Listed Company News
Altona Mining (ASX: AOH) completed a cost review for its Little
Eva copper project, which forms part of the Roseby copper gold
project in Queensland, resulting in a decrease in costs and an
increase in the NPV for the project. The study reduced the capital
expenditure estimates by 8% to A$294 million, while increasing
the project's pretax NPV by 37% to A$346 million at a 7.5%
discount rate. C1 costs are estimated at US$1.65/lb Cu. The
internal rate of return for Little Eva also increased from 22% to
29%, with a three-year payback period.
Augur Resources (ASX: AUK) completed a scoping study for the
Randu Kuning deposit in Central Java, Indonesia. The capital
expenditure is estimated at US$56 million (excluding
contingencies). Life of mine production of 283,000 oz of gold and
236,000 tonnes of copper is expected over nine years at C1 costs
of US$786/oz Au equivalent. The total Randu Kuning mineral
resource is estimated at 91 mt @ 0.3 g/t gold and 0.1% copper.
Besra Gold (ASX: BEZ) has updated the feasibility study for Stage
1 of its Bau gold project in Malaysia. The initial capital required is
estimated at US$92 million. All-in costs were lowered 12% to
US$973/oz and all-in sustaining costs lowered 11% to
US$1,030/oz. The NPV8% derived amounts to US$91 million, with
an IRR of 38%.
Gold Producers
Source: ASX, Capital IQ, LCC. Assumption: A$/US$ of 0.90
Code Company Name
Close
Price
Week r YTD r
Market Cap
(A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV
(A$m)
ABU ABM Resources 0.025 ▼ (7%) 14% 82 5.1 77
ALK Alkane Resources 0.35 ▼ (3%) 1% 129 43.3 85
AUK Augur Resources 0.050 ▼ (4%) (33%) 13 2.2 11
AZM Azumah Resources 0.058 ▼ (2%) 107% 21 3.3 17
BSR Bassari Resources 0.008 ▼ (20%) 0% 8 0.2 7
BAB Bullabulling Gold 0.055 ▼ (4%) 22% 19 4.3 15
CHN Chalice Gold 0.16 — 0% 15% 46 55.1 (9)
CHZ Chesser Resources 0.13 ▲ 4% 19% 27 4.6 23
CDG Cleveland Mining 0.11 — 0% 5% 25 0.6 25
CVG Convergent Minerals 0.013 — 0% (19%) 5 0.7 4
CAS Crusader Resources 0.29 ▼ (2%) (5%) 36 2.2 39
DCN Dacian Gold 0.37 ▼ (14%) 54% 36 13.2 22
EXG Excelsior Gold 0.090 ▼ (2%) 30% 37 4.3 31
FMl Focus Minerals 0.02 — 0% 33% 146 81.2 72
GCY Gascoyne Resources 0.14 ▼ (15%) 0% 22 1.2 21
GOR Gold Road Resources 0.19 — 0% 87% 84 7.1 77
GRY Gryphon Minerals 0.18 ▼ (3%) 3% 70 41.7 28
IDC Indochine Mining 0.068 ▲ 1% 58% 71 0.5 71
IAU Intrepid Mines 0.29 ▲ 10% (10%) 159 98.2 60
KGD Kula Gold 0.10 ▲ 6% (5%) 13 3.2 9
MSR Manas Resources 0.045 ▲ 5% 41% 19 5.6 13
MYG Mutiny Gold 0.030 ▼ (3%) (6%) 18 1.7 23
OBS Orbis Gold 0.32 ▼ (3%) 28% 80 5.5 75
ORD Ord Resources 0.00 ▼ (33%) (20%) 5 1.5 3
PAN Panoramic Resources 0.41 — 0% 64% 132 34.0 98
PIR Papillon Resources 1.44 — 0% 47% 491 43.6 447
PXG Phoenix Gold 0.15 ▼ (6%) (9%) 35 4.6 30
RED Red 5 0.09 ▼ (13%) (1%) 66 36.7 29
RNI Resource & Investment 0.099 ▼ (6%) 87% 30 3.0 42
ROL Robust Resources 0.28 ▼ (2%) (21%) 28 2.5 32
SIH Sihayo Gold 0.029 ▼ (3%) (3%) 27 0.5 27
SXG Southern Cross Goldfields 0.017 ▲ 6% 31% 15 5.1 17
SUM Sumatra Copper & Gold 0.09 ▲ 15% 31% 38 4.0 37
TAM Tanami Gold 0.03 ▲ 7% 45% 38 8.8 44
WAF West African Resources 0.16 ▼ (18%) 14% 40 1.3 38
YTC YTC Resources 0.25 — 0% 9% 82 25.8 121
Code Company Name
Close
Price
Week r YTD r
Market
Cap (A$m)
52 Week
Range
Cash
(A$m)
EV (A$m)
EV/
EBITDA
AQG Alacer Gold 3.52 ▲ 11% 55% 1,048 322 726 2.7x
AGD Austral Gold 0.09 ▲ 6% (25% ) 15 9 67 3.5x
BDR Beadell Resources 0.76 ▼ (1% ) (4% ) 601 24 646 64.2x
BEZ Besra Gold 0.027 — 0% (40% ) 13 1 38 NM
CRK Crocodile Gold Corp 0.33 ▲ 27% 175% 157 28 135 0.6x
DRM Doray Minerals 1.00 ▼ (2% ) 79% 163 24 189 6.1x
DRA Dragon Mining 0.20 ▲ 3% 50% 17 6 11 2.5x
EVN Evolution Mining 0.97 ▼ (1% ) 58% 687 37 792 4.7x
EVR Endeavour Mining Corp 1.00 ▲ 14% 106% 401 119 582 NM
IGO Independence Group 4.00 ▼ (8% ) 29% 933 46 951 11.3x
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated 1.24 ▼ (3% ) 33% 203 37 342 4.2x
KRM Kingsrose Mining 0.43 ▲ 21% 28% 154 1 153 NM
LSA Lachlan Star 0.29 ▲ 4% 45% 43 3 44 NM
MML Medusa Mining 2.44 ▲ 4% 20% 507 23 484 9.3x
MLX Metals X 0.24 ▲ 4% 41% 397 50 347 16.5x
MOY Millennium Minerals 0.14 ▲ 4% (29% ) 29 5 63 2.2x
MLI Mintails 0.054 — 0% (4% ) 15 4 10 NM
NCM Newcrest Mining 12.10 ▲ 1% 55% 9,268 121 13,785 13.0x
NGF Norton Gold Fields 0.13 ▼ (7% ) (7% ) 116 41 190 2.6x
NST Northern Star Resources 1.23 ▼ (2% ) 56% 709 49 659 11.6x
OGC OceanaGold Corporation 2.80 ▲ 2% 76% 883 28 1,049 4.3x
PNA PanAust 1.60 ▼ (12% ) (12% ) 974 145 1,009 4.1x
PGI PanTerra Gold 0.046 ▲ 5% 12% 36 5 80 NM
PRU Perseus Mining 0.49 ▲ 11% 98% 255 28 227 21.0x
RMS Ramelius Resources 0.14 ▼ (4% ) 39% 49 33 20 1.6x
RRL Regis Resources 2.56 ▲ 10% (12% ) 1,279 13 1,276 5.3x
RSG Resolute Mining 0.70 ▲ 4% 26% 449 50 493 3.8x
SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings 0.37 ▲ 6% 100% 278 23 277 3.4x
SBM St Barbara 0.40 ▲ 13% 52% 193 70 453 NM
SLR Silver Lake Resources 0.46 ▼ (12% ) (14% ) 231 17 222 NM
TBR Tribune Resources 3.18 ▲ 4% 36% 160 9 170 2.8x
TGZ Teranga Gold Corp 1.07 ▼ (2% ) 94% 329 39 357 NM
TRY Troy Resources 1.32 ▲ 3% 68% 252 18 264 9.2x
UML Unity Mining 0.032 ▼ (3% ) (22% ) 22 10 13 1.8x
VGO Vantage Goldfields 0.028 ▼ (3% ) 8% 7 1 6 2.4x
ANG AngloGold Ashanti 209.00 ▲ 6% 70% 8,683 725 12,185 6.9x
ABX Barrick Gold Corp 23.19 ▲ 5% 24% 26,965 2,688 40,908 6.7x
GFI Goldfields 45.65 ▲ 13% 39% 3,626 358 5,684 5.9x
NEM Newmont Mining Corp 26.18 ▲ 6% 14% 14,442 1,739 23,338 6.6x
4. 17th March 2014 WWW.LCC.ASIA
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Lincoln Crowne & Company Pty. Limited ("LCC"). The research is based on information obtained from
sources believed to be accurate and reliable. LCC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of any such
information and makes no warranty, guarantee or representation, expressly or impliedly about this research. LCC accepts no obligation
to correct or update the information. No opinion or recommendation is made within this research. This report is not intended to be, nor
should it be relied on, as a substitute for professional advice. This report should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment
decision or planning, and LCC does not accept any responsibility on this basis for actions made
. Page 4 / 4
WEEKLYAustralianCopperGoldReport
Australian Gold Producers Cost Curve
as at 31 December 2013