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Chinese Investment in the
Developing World
Joshua C. Gellers, PhD
US-Sri Lanka Fulbright Commission
25 July 2017
Roadmap
1) The global shift towards emerging
donors
2) China’s approach to international
development finance
3) The drivers and impacts of Chinese
foreign investment
4) Tentative observations about
China’s role in Sri Lankan development
USSLFC 2017 2
Abbreviations
• BC: Beijing Consensus, the Chinese model of
development assistance designed to counter the
Washington Consensus
• BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, and China
• DAC: Development Assistance Committee
• OECD: Organisation for Economic Cooperation
and Development
• WC: Washington Consensus, a Western model for
development that prescribes deregulation,
liberalization, and privatization
USSLFC 2017 3
Donor Typology
Traditional Donors
• DAC countries
• France, Germany, Japan,
Sweden, Switzerland, UK,
United States, etc.
Emerging Donors
• Non-DAC countries
• China, India, Iran, Korea,
Mexico, South Africa,
Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam,
etc.
USSLFC 2017 4
(Re)emerging Donors?
• Myth: Emerging donors like China and India
represent a new trend in foreign aid
• 1950s: Developing countries engage in mutual
assistance (i.e. Bandung Conference)
• 1980s: South-South aid declines due to debt and
inflation
• 1990s: OECD countries dominate the aid scene
(95% of all international aid flows)
• 2000s-onward: Greater attention to non-DAC
donors due to size of flows
USSLFC 2017 5
Concerns of Traditional Donors
• Support rogue regimes, reduce
access to raw materials, shift
economic relationships away from
the West
Undermine
Western
interests abroad
• Esp. in terms of environmental
protection, good governance, and
transparency
Change the
rules of the
development
assistance game
USSLFC 2017 6
A “Beijing” Consensus?
• Myth: China has established a unique model of
development assistance intended to rival the West’s
Washington Consensus model
• Reality: BC is not a fixed package of development aid, but a
flexible approach to providing assistance
• Based on 8 principles of foreign aid:
– (i) equality and mutual benefit; (ii) respect for sovereignty with
no conditions attached; (iii) provided through interest‐free or
low interest loans; (iv) promotes self‐reliance, not dependency;
(v) quick results; (vi) uses best‐quality equipment of Chinese
manufacture; (vii) emphasises technology transfer through
technical assistance; (viii) Chinese experts will live at the
standard of local experts (Enlai 1964)
USSLFC 2017 7
Chinese Development Assistance
Foreign aid v. foreign assistance
Policy banks:
•China Export-Import Bank (Eximbank)
•China Development Bank (CDB)
USSLFC 2017 8
Drivers of Chinese Foreign Assistance
Political: Promote ‘One China’ policy
Economic: Access resources & markets
Strategic: Enhance status, assert
sovereignty
USSLFC 2017 9
Impacts of Chinese Foreign Assistance
Salience, lack of empirical evidence
Progress from the policy banks
The deference problem
USSLFC 2017 10
A bad reputation at home and abroad
Research Question
USSLFC 2017 11
To what extent are decisions regarding
Chinese investment in the developing world
motivated by environmental factors?
Results
Hypothesis Result
H1: Poor environmental credentials Partial support
H2: Need for foreign assistance No support
H3: Plentiful natural resources No support
H4: Compete with DAC countries Low support
H5: Poor institutions Low support
H6: Geographic proximity Inconclusive
USSLFC 2017 12
China in Sri Lanka
• Not a new relationship (1952 Sino-Lanka
Rubber Rice Pact)
• Relations have ebbed and flowed across
different administrations
• But Sri Lanka has treated economic relations
and foreign policy toward China separately
• Today China is the largest lender to SL, while
US is largest source of grants
USSLFC 2017 13
China in Sri Lanka
USSLFC 2017 14
Ports and Mega Development Projects
USSLFC 2017 15
Port City
Colombo
Ports and Mega Development Projects
USSLFC 2017 16
Hambantota Port
China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative
USSLFC 2017 17
China and Sri Lanka: Moving Forward
• China will continue to offer unrivaled loans for road
construction, hydropower, and real estate
development
• Social, environmental, and economic consequences of
China's financial stake in Sri Lanka remain unclear
• Some believe China is "crucial" to development; others
ponder whether reliance on Chinese loans will lead to
unsustainable debt and land grabs
• More research will be needed to determine whether
and how this partnership benefits Sri Lanka’s pursuit of
sustainable development
USSLFC 2017 18
THANK YOU.
QUESTIONS?
USSLFC 2017 19
Email: josh.gellers@gmail.com
Twitter: @JoshGellers
Website: www.joshgellers.com

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Chinese Investment in the Developing World

  • 1. Chinese Investment in the Developing World Joshua C. Gellers, PhD US-Sri Lanka Fulbright Commission 25 July 2017
  • 2. Roadmap 1) The global shift towards emerging donors 2) China’s approach to international development finance 3) The drivers and impacts of Chinese foreign investment 4) Tentative observations about China’s role in Sri Lankan development USSLFC 2017 2
  • 3. Abbreviations • BC: Beijing Consensus, the Chinese model of development assistance designed to counter the Washington Consensus • BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India, and China • DAC: Development Assistance Committee • OECD: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development • WC: Washington Consensus, a Western model for development that prescribes deregulation, liberalization, and privatization USSLFC 2017 3
  • 4. Donor Typology Traditional Donors • DAC countries • France, Germany, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, United States, etc. Emerging Donors • Non-DAC countries • China, India, Iran, Korea, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Vietnam, etc. USSLFC 2017 4
  • 5. (Re)emerging Donors? • Myth: Emerging donors like China and India represent a new trend in foreign aid • 1950s: Developing countries engage in mutual assistance (i.e. Bandung Conference) • 1980s: South-South aid declines due to debt and inflation • 1990s: OECD countries dominate the aid scene (95% of all international aid flows) • 2000s-onward: Greater attention to non-DAC donors due to size of flows USSLFC 2017 5
  • 6. Concerns of Traditional Donors • Support rogue regimes, reduce access to raw materials, shift economic relationships away from the West Undermine Western interests abroad • Esp. in terms of environmental protection, good governance, and transparency Change the rules of the development assistance game USSLFC 2017 6
  • 7. A “Beijing” Consensus? • Myth: China has established a unique model of development assistance intended to rival the West’s Washington Consensus model • Reality: BC is not a fixed package of development aid, but a flexible approach to providing assistance • Based on 8 principles of foreign aid: – (i) equality and mutual benefit; (ii) respect for sovereignty with no conditions attached; (iii) provided through interest‐free or low interest loans; (iv) promotes self‐reliance, not dependency; (v) quick results; (vi) uses best‐quality equipment of Chinese manufacture; (vii) emphasises technology transfer through technical assistance; (viii) Chinese experts will live at the standard of local experts (Enlai 1964) USSLFC 2017 7
  • 8. Chinese Development Assistance Foreign aid v. foreign assistance Policy banks: •China Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) •China Development Bank (CDB) USSLFC 2017 8
  • 9. Drivers of Chinese Foreign Assistance Political: Promote ‘One China’ policy Economic: Access resources & markets Strategic: Enhance status, assert sovereignty USSLFC 2017 9
  • 10. Impacts of Chinese Foreign Assistance Salience, lack of empirical evidence Progress from the policy banks The deference problem USSLFC 2017 10 A bad reputation at home and abroad
  • 11. Research Question USSLFC 2017 11 To what extent are decisions regarding Chinese investment in the developing world motivated by environmental factors?
  • 12. Results Hypothesis Result H1: Poor environmental credentials Partial support H2: Need for foreign assistance No support H3: Plentiful natural resources No support H4: Compete with DAC countries Low support H5: Poor institutions Low support H6: Geographic proximity Inconclusive USSLFC 2017 12
  • 13. China in Sri Lanka • Not a new relationship (1952 Sino-Lanka Rubber Rice Pact) • Relations have ebbed and flowed across different administrations • But Sri Lanka has treated economic relations and foreign policy toward China separately • Today China is the largest lender to SL, while US is largest source of grants USSLFC 2017 13
  • 14. China in Sri Lanka USSLFC 2017 14
  • 15. Ports and Mega Development Projects USSLFC 2017 15 Port City Colombo
  • 16. Ports and Mega Development Projects USSLFC 2017 16 Hambantota Port
  • 17. China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative USSLFC 2017 17
  • 18. China and Sri Lanka: Moving Forward • China will continue to offer unrivaled loans for road construction, hydropower, and real estate development • Social, environmental, and economic consequences of China's financial stake in Sri Lanka remain unclear • Some believe China is "crucial" to development; others ponder whether reliance on Chinese loans will lead to unsustainable debt and land grabs • More research will be needed to determine whether and how this partnership benefits Sri Lanka’s pursuit of sustainable development USSLFC 2017 18
  • 19. THANK YOU. QUESTIONS? USSLFC 2017 19 Email: josh.gellers@gmail.com Twitter: @JoshGellers Website: www.joshgellers.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Adapted from Walz and Ramachandran (2010): https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/134751/1425691_file_Walz_Ramachandran_Brave_New_World_FINAL.pdf.
  2. Empirical scholarship on the relationship between political factors and aid distribution has demonstrated that China is no more likely than Western donors to steer money toward countries based on their politics, and the Asian giant does not deliberately invest in countries based on their availability of natural resources (Dreher and Fuchs 2015; Gellers 2017). 
  3. Adapted from Gellers (2017), “The Developing World as the Dragon’s Den: Assessing the Role of Environmental Factors in Chinese Development Finance,” SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907510.
  4. Adapted from Shelton Kodikara (1982), Foreign Policy of Sri Lanka: A Third World Perspective (Delhi: Chanakya Publications).
  5. Adapted from Gellers (2017): http://www.joshgellers.com/blog/china-in-sri-lanka-emerging-donors-in-the-developing-world.