A monthly summary of global economic performance including employment, trade, business conditions, leading indicators and regional data.

1. . Laird Research - Economics
November 11, 2014
Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
US In
ation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Where we are now
Welcome to the Laird Report. It’s job is to stick a the pin on the
global economy’s map that says ”You are here”. We present economic
data from around the world to help figure this out.
The full blown panic attack we saw in September/October seems
to have abated in North America. We can see that corporate profits
for the S&P 500 remain strong (especially profit margins) and all the
usual indicators are pointing in the right direction. Europe and China
aren’t getting better and deflation is still a (bad) thing in Europe.
Possibly the biggest local news is the official end of Quan-titative
Easing in the US. Relative to previous nervousness over
the announcement-of-the-maybe-end-of-QE-sometime-in-the-future-please-
don’t-hurt-me, the actual “thing” doesn’t seem so bad after
all.
The thing I puzzle over these days is what is going on with Oil? The
conspiracy theorist in me thinks that there are good geopolitical rea-sons
for lower oil (i.e. it disproportionately hurts ISIS, Iran and Russia)
by the powers that be (US government, the Illuminati, etc). However,
cooling global demand is also a good reason not to have $100+ oil. I’m
not sure the net impact of sub-$80 oil overall, but its clearly good for
consumers and perhaps is a nice replacement stimulus program now
that QE is over.
Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD
recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last
available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from
as much of the data series as is available).
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Laird Research, November 11, 2014

2. Indicators for US Economy
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the
economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors
of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which
summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked
(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and
vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-mit
indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in
the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about
their own financial situation and the economy in general).
Leading Index for the US
Index: Est. 6 month growth
−3 −1 1 2 3
Growth
Contraction
median: 1.40
Sep 2014: 1.68
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000's of Claims per Week
200 400 600
median: 351.75
Nov 2014: 279.00
Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked
Hours
39 40 41 42 43 44
median: 40.60
Oct 2014: 42.10
ISM Manfacturing − PMI
Index: Steady State = 50
30 40 50 60 70
median: 53.30
Oct 2014: 59.00
expanding economy
contracting economy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
Billions of Dollars
150 200 250 300
median: 182.74
Sep 2014: 242.18
ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Index
40 50 60 70
median: 51.60
Slower Deliveries Oct 2014: 56.20
Faster Deliveries
Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)
Percent change (3 months)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−10 −5 0 5
median: 0.86
Sep 2014: 0.87
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Index Value
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−4 −2 0 2
median: 0.08
Sep 2014: 0.47
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index 1966 Q1 = 100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
50 70 90 110
median: 88.25
Oct 2014: 86.90
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 2

3. Global Financial Markets
Global Stock Market Returns
Country Index Name Close Date Current
Value
Weekly
Change
Monthly
Change
3 month
Change
Yearly
Change
Corr to
S&P500
Corr to
TSX
North America
USA S&P 500 Nov 10 2,038.3 1.0% s 6.9% s 5.2% s 15.0% s 1.00 0.73
USA NASDAQ Composite Nov 10 4,651.6 0.3% s 8.8% s 5.7% s 18.7% s 0.94 0.70
USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Nov 10 21,447.2 0.9% s 7.4% s 4.5% s 14.0% s 0.99 0.74
Canada S&P TSX Nov 10 14,709.8 1.2% s 3.4% s -3.6% t 10.1% s 0.73 1.00
Europe and Russia
France CAC 40 Nov 10 4,222.8 0.7% s 3.7% s 0.6% s -1.6% t 0.55 0.47
Germany DAX Nov 10 9,351.9 1.1% s 6.4% s 1.9% s 2.7% s 0.52 0.50
United Kingdom FTSE Nov 10 6,611.3 1.9% s 4.3% s -0.3% t -1.7% t 0.55 0.52
Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Nov 10 21.1 -2.2% t -0.7% t -12.5% t -23.6% t 0.48 0.31
Asia
Taiwan TSEC weighted index Nov 10 9,050.0 0.5% s 3.9% s -1.3% t 10.6% s 0.29 0.10
China Shanghai Composite Index Nov 05 2,419.2 1.9% s 1.5% s 9.0% s 12.1% s 0.06 0.03
Japan NIKKEI 225 Nov 10 16,780.5 -0.5% t 9.7% s 10.9% s 17.6% s -0.01 -0.05
Hong Kong Hang Seng Nov 10 23,744.7 -0.7% t 2.8% s -3.7% t 2.9% s 0.03 0.13
Korea Kospi Nov 10 1,958.2 0.3% s 0.9% s -4.0% t -1.0% t -0.00 -0.02
South Asia and Austrailia
India Bombay Stock Exchange Nov 10 27,874.7 0.1% s 6.0% s 9.2% s 36.0% s 0.18 0.14
Indonesia Jakarta Nov 10 4,965.4 -2.4% t 0.0% s -2.9% t 11.8% s -0.13 -0.16
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Nov 10 1,827.9 -1.4% t 1.1% s -1.2% t 1.3% s 0.17 0.11
Australia All Ordinaries Nov 10 5,501.4 0.3% s 6.1% s 1.0% s 2.2% s -0.04 0.07
New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Nov 10 5,470.3 1.0% s 4.7% s 8.3% s 11.1% s 0.08 0.01
South America
Brasil IBOVESPA Nov 10 52,725.0 -2.3% t -4.7% t -6.9% t 0.2% s 0.20 0.21
Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Nov 10 10,393.4 -8.6% t 3.5% s 26.6% s 92.4% s 0.36 0.29
Mexico Bolsa index Nov 10 44,523.0 -1.5% t 2.5% s -0.3% t 12.2% s 0.65 0.51
MENA and Africa
Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Nov 10 69.4 -0.6% t -1.3% t -3.9% t 32.1% s 0.26 0.23
(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Nov 10 31.8 -1.5% t -4.8% t -3.6% t 25.5% s 0.22 0.11
South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Nov 10 67.2 -2.1% t 7.6% s -6.3% t 10.1% s 0.66 0.49
(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Nov 10 29.3 -1.0% t -1.8% t -13.1% t -2.8% t 0.65 0.61
Commodities
USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Nov 03 $78.8 -3.2% t -12.2% t -19.8% t -16.7% t 0.20 0.36
USD Gold LME Spot Nov 10 $1,172.0 0.1% s -4.1% t -10.4% t -8.7% t -0.04 -0.04
Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 3

4. S&P 500 Composite Index
The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single
gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-tion
level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We
present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which
reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)
a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-ings
over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted
earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.
S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)
Percent
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percent
Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q2/14: 10.6%
Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q3/14: 9.2%
S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)
US Financial Crisis
Savings and Loans Crisis
Reported Earnings
Operating Earnings
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
−5.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
−5.00
Tech Bubble
Japanese Asset Bubble
Asian Financial Crisis House Bubble
Eurozone crisis
Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II
Gulf War
High Inflation Period
Vietnam War Afganistan/Iraq War
Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
50
40
30
20
10
0
50
40
30
20
10
0
Multiple
Multiple
12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Nov = 18.5)
10−year CAPE ( median = 19.4, Nov = 25.0)
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 4

5. S&P 500 Composite Distributions
This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-panies.
The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market
cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price
over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to
their industry group.
MSFT
6.5%
AAPL
9.7%
BMY
16%
CRM
YHOO
Health Care
GOOG
−3.7%
FB
−2%
ORCL
6.2%
TEL
IBM
−13%
HPQ
V
19%
INTC
−2.1%
TXN
QCOM
CSCO
0.48%
MA
EMC
ACN
MU
STX
CA
ESRX ALXN
JPM
4.3%
WFC
5%
ACT
AFL
BBT
CME
BRK−A
6.2%
ZMH BSX
ABC
SYK AET
BAX
HST
HIG
IVZ
RF
GGP WY
USB
BAC
3.3%
MS
C
5.5%
AXP
GS
AIG
LLY
BEN
SPG
MET BLK
PRU
BK
ACE
DFS
CB
ICE
L
JNJ
4.3%
PFE
3.6%
MRK
GILD
1.4%
UNH CELG
BIIB
ABT
AGN
REGN
CAH
CI
MYL
ZTS
STJ
A
SLB
−0.57%
CVX
0.23%
DG
VFC
CCL
YUM
CMCSA
DIS
2.6%
AMZN
HD
7.8%
MCD
Telecommunications
Energy Materials Utilities
LOW
SBUX
TWX
NKE
SE
HES
APC HAL
GM
F
TJX
JCI
LB
M
RL UA
WMB
KMB
ADM
KRFT
MDLZ CL
WMT
4.4%
PPG
LYB PX
SYY
KR
PG
7.6%
FCX
KO
PEP
4.7%
PM
5.9%
CVS
13%
MO
9%
WAG
COST
RAI
GIS
EL
K
NU
FE
NEE
ITW
BA
GE
5.2%
CTL
T
0.46%
Services
CMI
RTN
DHR
UPS
13%
MMM
13%
UTX
ETN
CAT LMT
GD
NSC
PCP
DE
GLW
PH
TYC
WM
IR
XOM
3.7%
COP
OXY
PSX
MPC
DVN
DD
ECL
APD
IP
AA
DUK
SO
D
EIX ED
VZ
2.6%
Information Technology Financials
Consumer
Discretionary
Consumer
Staples
Industrials
<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%
% Change in Price from Oct 1, 2014 to Nov 10, 2014
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Utilities 9.7% s 1.6 1.7 18.5
Industrials 7.7% s 1.7 3.4 20.2
Health Care 7.1% s 3.0 4.0 25.5
Consumer Staples 6.6% s 1.9 5.3 21.7
Financials 6.0% s 3.1 1.6 17.9
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Information Technology 4.7% s 3.4 3.8 21.9
Consumer Discretionary 3.6% s 1.6 4.3 20.1
Telecommunications Services 1.4% s 1.4 4.2 32.5
Materials 0.9% s 1.5 3.3 22.8
Energy -1.3% t 1.8 1.8 16.2
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 5

6. US Equity Valuations
A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market
value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement
cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously
follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly
(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.
We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has
valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-timated
earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated
securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10
year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under-standing
the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a
demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of
risk-aversion in the market.
Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales
Tobin Q (median = 0.75, Jun = 1.12)
S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.32, Sep = 1.72)
Paying up for growth
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
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97
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99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Buying assets at a discount
Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
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97
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99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Oct = 5.1%)
Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Oct = 2.3%)
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 6

7. US Mutual Fund Flows
Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual
funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund
Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as
it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors
entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s
from mutual funds.
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$ billions (monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−40 −20 0 20 40
Domestic Equity
World Equity
Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bonds
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$ billions (Monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−60 −40 −20 0 20 40 60
Flows to Equity
Flows to Bonds
Net Market Flows
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 7

8. US Key Interest Rates
Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial
system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on
government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,
the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then
the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative
spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.
Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an
inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most
of the time).
For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates
(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs
Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an
aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-ing.
US Treasury Yield Curves
Forward Instantaneous Rates (%)
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Nov 7, 2014 (Today)
Oct 7, 2014 (1 mo ago)
Aug 7, 2014 (3 mo ago)
07 Nov 2013 (1 yr ago)
3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields 96
10 Yr Treasury 7%
3 Mo Treasury
Spread
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
Percent
AAA
BAA
median: 91.00
Nov 2014: 86.00
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Spread (bps)
LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Percent
3 mos t−bill
LIBOR
median: 37.00
Nov 2014: 20.23
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Spread (bps)
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 8

9. US In
ation
Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations
to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index.
In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like
Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called
Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects
the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.
Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-pectations
by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an
imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected
5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.
Consumer Price Index
Percent
84
85
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89
90
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92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
−1%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
−1%
US Inflation Rate YoY% (Sep = 1.7%)
US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Sep = 1.7%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent (Year over Year)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Sep = 1.4%)
PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Sep = 1.5%)
5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Percent
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
5 year forward Inflation Expectation
Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)
Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure)
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 9

10. QE Taper Tracker
The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-vide
monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a
series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long
term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-gage
backed securites and other debt from banks.
The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their
price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be
decreased (yield coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.
In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without
increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.
The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-ing
enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).
The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in
Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by
seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less
than 6.5%. In Oct 2014, they announced the end of purchases.
QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury Mortgage Backed Securities)
Trillions
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Treasuries QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 Taper
Mortgage Backed Securities
Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)
200
150
100
Billions
50
0
−50
−100
200
150
100
50
0
−50
−100
Month to date Nov 05: $0.009
Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets
Percent
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
Target Unemployment 6.5%
Target Inflation 2%
U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Percent
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
Short Term Rates:
Once at zero, Fed moved to QE
Long Term Rates:
Moving up in anticipation of Taper?
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 10

11. Exchange Rates
10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0.62 0.71 0.81 0.90 1.00 1.09
USA / CAD
0.55 0.61 0.66 0.72 0.77 0.82
Euro / CAD
59.16 74.71 90.26 105.81 121.36 136.91
Japan / CAD
0.38 0.44 0.49 0.55 0.61 0.67
U.K. / CAD
0.59 0.98 1.36 1.74 2.12 2.51
Brazil / CAD
CAD Appreciating
CAD Depreciating
Change in F/X: Oct 1 2014 to Nov 7 2014
(Trade Weighted Currency Index of USD Trading Partners)
3.0%
1.5%
−1.5%
−3.0%
Euro
0.1%
UK
0.8%
Japan
3.4%
South Korea
0.7%
China
−1.7%
India
−1.8%
Brazil
2.3%
Mexico
−0.7%
USA
1.5%
Canada
0.2%
Country vs. Average
Appreciating
Depreciating
% Change over 3 months vs. Canada
BRA
−7.7%
ARG
0.8%
KRW
−1.2%
JPY
−7.9%
AUS
−3.7%
RUS
−17.7%
CHN
3.5%
IND
2.7%
USA
3.2%
EUR
−4.1%
MXN
1.0%
ZAR
−2.1%
−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
CAD appreciating CAD depreciating
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 11

12. US Banking Indicators
The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health
of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the
form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-erbating
factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the
Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference
between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid
by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss
reserves and actual deliquency rates).
US Banks Net Interest Margin
Percent
3.5 4.0 4.5
median: 3.95
2014 Q2: 3.10
Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve
Billions of Dollars
50 150 250
median: 53.48
Nov 2014: 224.59
Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B
Percent
0 5 10 15
median: 12.84
2014 Q2: 9.42
Consumer Credit Outstanding
% Yearly Change
−5 0 5 10 15 20
median: 7.70
Sep 2014: 6.88
Total Business Loans
% Yearly Change
−20 0 10 20
median: 8.50
Sep 2014: 12.27
US Nonperforming Loans
Percent
1 2 3 4 5
median: 2.34
2014 Q2: 2.26
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0 2 4 6
median: 0.011
Oct 2014: −1.10
Commercial Paper Outstanding
Trillions of Dollars
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2
median: 1.36
Nov 2014: 1.07
Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
2 4 6 8 10
median: 2.30
2014 Q2: 7.39
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 12

13. US Employment Indicators
Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of
current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is
highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes
are another way to track the change in unemployment rate.
Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in
the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure
is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or
not) - this is the Participation Rate.
The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking
at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.
The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy-ment
occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.
Unemployment Rate
Percent
median: 6.20
11
10
9
8
7
6
4 Oct 2014: 5.80
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
5
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Percent
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Job Openings (% total Employment)
Dec 2000 − Dec 2008
Jan 2009 − Jul 2014
Aug 2014
Participation Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
63 64 65 66 67
median: 66.10
Oct 2014: 62.80
Total Nonfarm Payroll Change
Monthly Change (000s)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−500 0 500
median: 162.00
Oct 2014: 214.00
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 13

14. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ-ment.
The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a
full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help
demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack.
The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev-els
over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay.
Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs
is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery.
Median Duration of Unemployment
Weeks
5 10 15 20 25
median: 8.60
Oct 2014: 13.70
(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached
Percent
8 10 12 14 16
median: 9.70
Oct 2014: 11.50
4−week moving average of Initial Claims
Jan 1995 = 100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
50 100 150 200
median: 108.15
Nov 2014: 85.78
Financial Activities
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Unemployed over 27 weeks
Millions of Persons
35
30
25
20
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
median: 0.78
Oct 2014: 2.84
Services: Temp Help
Millions of Persons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
median: 2.24
Oct 2014: 2.94
15
Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers)
Average wages ($/hour)
Private Industry Employment Change (1 year)
Construction
Durable Goods
Education
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Nondurable Goods
Other Services
Professional
Business Services
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Circle size relative to total employees in industry
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 14

15. US Business Activity Indicators
Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing
activity. We are focusing on forward looking business
indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the
current business environment.
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output
YoY Percent Change
−10 0 10 20
median: 6.14
2014 Q3: 10.43
ISM Manufacturing − PMI
Index
30 40 50 60 70
Oct 2014: 59.00
manufac. expanding
manufac. contracting
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index
Index
30 40 50 60 70 80
Oct 2014: 65.80
Increase in new orders
Decrease in new orders
Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods
Billions of Dollars
40 50 60 70
median: 57.31
Sep 2014: 71.96
Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing
Hours
39 40 41 42 43
median: 41.10
Oct 2014: 42.10
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
YoY Percent Change
−15 −5 0 5 10
median: 3.31
Sep 2014: 4.11
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
median: 1.37
Aug 2014: 1.29
Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders Inventory
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−0.5 0.0 0.5
Above ave growth Sep 2014: 0.08
Below ave growth
ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index
Index
Growth
Contraction
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
35 45 55 65
Oct 2014: 60.00
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 15

16. US Consumption Indicators
Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the
strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-tations
about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new
purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index 1966 Q1 = 100
50 60 70 80 90 110
median: 88.25
Oct 2014: 86.90
Consumer Loans (All banks)
YoY % Change
−10 0 10 20 30 40
median: 7.83
Sep 2014: 3.89
Accounting
Change
Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans
Percent
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
median: 3.48
2014 Q2: 2.26
New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods
YoY % Change
−20 0 20
median: 4.60
Sep 2014: 0.62
New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods
YoY % Change
−20 0 10 20
median: 4.32
Sep 2014: −0.35
Personal Consumption Housing Index
Index
−0.4 0.0 0.2 0.4
median: 0.02
above ave growth Sep 2014: −0.13
below ave growth
Light Cars and Trucks Sales
Millions of Units
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
median: 14.77
Oct 2014: 16.35
Personal Saving Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
2 4 6 8 10
median: 5.60
Sep 2014: 5.60
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
YoY % Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−10 −5 0 5
median: 2.54
Sep 2014: 2.61
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 16

17. US Housing
Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-ever
a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since
personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-ues
directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator
in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment
was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few
recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices
and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing
market.
15 20 25 30 35
150 200 250 300
Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)
New Home Price (000's)
Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)
Sep 2014
r2 : 89.2%
Range: Jan 1959 − Sep 2014
Blue dots +5% change in next year
Red dots −5% change in next year
New Housing Units Permits Authorized
Millions of Units
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
median: 1.36
Sep 2014: 1.03
New Home Median Sale Price
Sale Price $000's
100 150 200 250
Sep 2014: 259.00
Homeowner's Equity Level
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
40 50 60 70 80
median: 66.52
2014 Q2: 53.63
New Homes: Median Months on the Market
Months
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
4 6 8 10 12 14
median: 5.00
Sep 2014: 3.10
US Monthly Supply of Homes
Months Supply
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
4 6 8 10 12
median: 5.90
Sep 2014: 5.30
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 17

18. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index
The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey
on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-ates
a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to
present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at
the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.
The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are
weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start
of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009
for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the
background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess
smoother.
Change from 2007 Peak − Q2 2014
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
−10%
−20%
−30%
−40%
−50%
Today's Home Prices
Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak
Frequency
−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Year over Year Change − Q2 2014
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
−2%
−4%
−6%
−8%
−10%
YoY Change in this quarter
YoY Percent Change
Frequency
−15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 18

19. Global Business Indicators
Global Manufacturing PMI Reports
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting
purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-ing
of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number
over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests
a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the
change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-erage
of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to
show a global average.
Global M−PMI − October 2014
Eurozone
50.6
MEX 52.0
53.3
Global PMI
52.2
TWN
40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0
Contracting Steady Expanding
KOR
48.7
JPN
52.4
VNM
51.0
IDN
49.2
ZAF
51.8
AUS
49.4
BRA
49.1
CAN
55.3
CHN
50.4
IND
51.6
RUS
50.3
SAU
59.1
USA
55.9
Global M−PMI Monthly Change
Eurozone
0.3
MEX −1.3
0.7
Global PMI
0.0
TWN
−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Deteriorating PMI Change Improving
KOR
−0.1
JPN
0.7
VNM
−0.7
IDN
−1.5
ZAF
1.1
AUS
2.9
BRA
−0.2
CAN
1.8
CHN
0.2
IND
0.6
RUS
−0.1
SAU
−2.7
USA
−1.6
Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia
Business Conditions Expanding
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
30 40 50 60 70
30 40 50 60 70
Business Conditions Contracting
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 19

20. Global Manufacturing PMI Chart
This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look
at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their
evolution over time.
Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while
green numbers indicate expansion.
Global PMI 48.9 49.6 50.0 51.5 50.9 51.2 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.4 52.6 52.2 52.2
Oct 12
Nov 12
Dec 12
Jan 13
Feb 13
Mar 13
Apr 13
May 13
Jun 13
Jul 13
Aug 13
Sep 13
Oct 13
Nov 13
Dec 13
Jan 14
Feb 14
Mar 14
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
United States
Canada
Mexico
Brazil
Eurozone
Netherlands
Ireland
Poland
Spain
Czech Republic
Italy
France
Germany
Greece
United Kingdom
Russia
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Japan
Korea
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Australia
51.0 52.8 56.1 55.8 54.3 54.6 52.1 52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5 55.9
51.4 50.4 50.4 50.5 51.7 49.3 50.1 53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5 54.3 54.8 53.5 55.3
55.5 55.6 57.1 55.0 53.4 52.2 51.7 51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.3
50.2 52.2 51.1 53.2 52.5 51.8 50.8 50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.2 49.3 49.1
45.4 46.8 46.1 47.9 47.9 46.8 46.7 48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8 51.8 50.7 50.3 50.6
48.9 48.2 49.6 50.2 49.0 48.0 48.2 48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2 53.0
52.1 52.4 51.4 50.3 51.5 48.6 48.0 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7 56.6
47.3 48.2 48.5 48.6 48.9 48.0 46.9 48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3 49.4 49.0 49.5 51.2
43.5 45.3 44.6 46.1 46.8 44.2 44.7 48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6 53.9 52.8 52.6 52.6
47.2 48.2 46.0 48.3 49.9 49.1 49.5 50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7 56.5 54.3 55.6 54.4
45.5 45.1 46.7 47.8 45.8 44.5 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0
43.7 44.5 44.6 42.9 43.9 44.0 44.4 46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2 47.8 46.9 48.8 48.5
46.0 46.8 46.0 49.8 50.3 49.0 48.1 49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 51.4 49.9 51.4
41.0 41.8 41.4 41.7 43.0 42.1 45.0 45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8
47.3 49.2 51.2 50.5 47.9 48.6 50.2 51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 55.4 52.5 51.6 53.2
52.9 52.3 50.0 52.0 52.0 50.8 50.6 50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4 50.3
52.5 51.6 53.1 54.0 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8 48.5 50.3 50.4 51.5
59.8 57.0 58.9 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.0 57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8 59.1
47.1 49.5 47.4 49.1 53.6 49.3 50.5 50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6 45.9 49.0 50.7 51.8
46.9 46.5 45.0 47.7 48.5 50.4 51.1 51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5 50.5 52.5 51.7 52.4
47.4 48.2 50.1 49.9 50.9 52.0 52.6 51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8 48.7
50.2 50.6 51.5 50.4 50.4 51.6 50.4 49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2 50.4
47.8 47.4 50.6 51.5 50.2 51.2 50.7 47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3 52.0
48.7 50.5 49.3 50.1 48.3 50.8 51.0 48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7 51.0
51.9 51.5 50.7 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.7 51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2
52.9 53.7 54.7 53.2 54.2 52.0 51.0 50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6
45.2 44.3 44.3 40.2 45.6 44.4 36.7 43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9 50.7 47.3 46.5 49.4
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21. OECD International Trade Data
The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-tries.
Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US
dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.
Green lines indicate the zero level.
The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports
on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the difference
between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-ance)
China
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40
30
20
10
0
−10
US
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
Canada
YoY Change
10
5
0
−5
−10
−15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
−2
Germany
YoY Change
20
0
−20
−40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
30
25
20
15
10
0 5
Japan
YoY Change
20
10
0
−10
−20
−30
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10
0 5
−5
−10
−15
South Korea
YoY Change
15
10
0 5
−5
−10
−15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 2 4 6
−2
−4
India
YoY Change
15
10
5
0
−5
−10
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
−5
−10
−15
Australia
YoY Change
0 2 4 6
−2
−4
−6
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1 2 3 4
−1
−2
Eurozone
YoY Change
40
20
0
−20
−40
−60
−80
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
20
10
0
−10
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22. Canadian Indicators
Retail Trade (SA)
YoY Percent Change
−5 0 5 10
median: 4.76
Aug 2014: 4.39
Total Manufacturing Sales Growth
YoY Percent Growth
−20 0 10 20
median: 4.18
Aug 2014: 6.08
Manufacturing New Orders Growth
YoY Percent Growth
−30 −10 0 10 20 30
median: 4.59
Aug 2014: 5.30
10yr Government Bond Yields
0 2 4 6 8 10
median: 5.79
Oct 2014: 2.05
Manufacturing PMI
50 51 52 53 54 55
Oct 2014: 55.30
Sales and New Orders (SA)
YoY Percent Change
−20 0 10 20
Sales
New Orders (smoothed)
Tbill Yield Spread (10 yr − 3mo)
Spread (Percent)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−1 0 1 2 3 4
median: 1.36
Oct 2014: 1.17
Inflation (total and core)
YoY Percent Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−1 0 1 2 3 4
median: 1.97
Sep 2014: 2.03
Total
Core
Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA)
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
median: 1.35
Aug 2014: 1.37
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23. 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − Jul 2014)
Unemployment Rate
Vacancy rate (Industrial)
Mar 2011 − Dec 2012
Jan 2013 − Jun 2014
Jul 2014
Ownership/Rental Price Ratio
Ratio of Accomodation Ownership/Rent Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Calgary
Montreal
Vancouver
Toronto
Note: Using prices relative to 2002 as base year
Ownership relatively more
expensive vs 2002
Rent relatively more expensive vs 2002
Unemployment Rate (SA)
Percent
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Canada 6.5%
Alberta 4.5%
Ontario 6.5%
Debt Service Ratios (SA)
Percent
4 6 8 10
Total Debt: 7.0%
Mortgage: 3.6%
Consumer Debt: 6.6%
Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed)
YoY Percent Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−40 −20 0 20 40
Permits
Starts
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24. European Indicators
Unemployment Rates
Percentage
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Business Employment Expectations
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−40 −20 0 10
Industrial Orderbook Levels
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−60 −40 −20 0 20
Country Employment
Expect.
Unempl.
(%)
Bond Yields
(%)
Retail
Turnover
Manufacturing
Turnover
In
ation
(YoY %)
Industry
Orderbook
PMI
Series Dates Oct 2014 Sep 2014 Sep 2014 Sep 2014 Sep 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Oct 2014
France -13.1 t 10.5 u 1.35 t 105.1 t 108.8 s 0.4 t -20.3 s 48.5 t
Germany -6.1 t 5.0 u 0.92 t NA 112.0 t 0.8 u -11.3 t 51.4 s
United Kingdom 10.7 s 6.0 t 2.08 t 111.2 t NA 1.2 t 2.4 s 53.2 s
Italy -7.9 s 12.6 s 2.40 t NA NA -0.1 s -22.5 s 49.0 t
Greece -3.8 t 26.4 t 5.89 t NA NA -1.1 t -20.6 s 48.8 s
Spain -0.8 s 24.0 t 2.20 t NA NA -0.3 s -14.0 t 52.6 u
Eurozone (EU28) -3.3 t 10.1 u 1.88 t 104.3 t 109.6 s 0.5 u -14.0 s NA
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25. Government Bond Yields
Long Term Yields %
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0 2 4 6 8 10
Economic Sentiment
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
60 70 80 90 110 130
Consumer Confidence
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−100 −60 −20 0 20
Inflation (Harmonized Prices)
median: 2.00
7 Euro Area
6
5
4
3
2
1
−1 Aug 2014: 0.40
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
US
Harmonized Inflation: Aug 2014
AUT
1.5%
BGR
−1.4%
NOR
2.1%
DEU
0.8%
GBR
1.2%
ESP
−0.3%
FIN
1.5%
FRA
0.4%
HUN
−0.5%
GRC
−1.1%
IRL
0.5%
ISL
0.4%
ITA
−0.1%
POL
−0.2%
ROU
1.8%
SWE
0.0%
−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
YoY % Change in Prices
PMI: October 2014
40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.060.0
Contracting Steady Expanding
BRA
49.1
CAN
55.3
DEU
51.4
ESP
52.6
FRA
48.5
GBR
53.2
GRC
48.8
IRL
56.6
ITA
49.0
MEX
53.3
POL
51.2
SAU
59.1
TUR
51.5
USA
55.9
RUS
50.3
PMI Change: Sep − Oct
−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Deteriorating PMI Change Improving
CAN
1.8
DEU
1.5
ESP
0.0
FRA
−0.3
GBR
1.6
GRC
0.4
IRL
0.9
ITA
−1.7
POL
1.7
TUR
1.1
USA
−1.6
RUS
−0.1
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26. Chinese Indicators
Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi-nancial
Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 that
gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-stead,
he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-native
indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank
lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI
- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and
differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai
Composite Index as a measure of stock performance.
Manufacturing PMI
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
40 45 50 55 60
Oct 2014: 50.40
Shanghai Composite Index
Index Value (Monthly High/Low)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0 1000 3000 5000
Nov 2014: 2418.17
Electricity Generated
100 Million KWH (log scale)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
1000 2000 3000 5000
Sep 2014: 4542.00
Electricity Generated
Long Term Trend
Short Term Average
Consumer Confidence Index
Index
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
98 100 102 104 106 108
median: 103.10
Sep 2014: 105.40
Exports
YoY Percent Change
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−20 0 20 40 60 80
median: 19.20
Sep 2014: 15.30
Retail Sales Growth
YoY Percent Change
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
10 15 20
median: 13.10
Sep 2014: 11.60
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27. Global Climate Change
Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National
Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly
from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference
from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitation
and 1971-2000 for temperature.
Average Temperature Anomalies from Apr 2014 - Sep 2014
−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
−4 −2 0 2 4
Cooler Anomalies in Celcius Warmer Anomalies in Celcius
Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Apr 2014 - Sep 2014
−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
−40 −20 0 20 40
Drier Anomalies in millimeters Wetter Anomalies in millimeters
www.lairdresearch.com November 11, 2014 Page 27