The document discusses the impacts of climate change including rising global temperatures, sea levels, and greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. It summarizes observed data showing the impacts already occurring and projections of further impacts if emissions are not reduced. It argues that urgent action is needed to both adapt to the changes occurring and mitigate further impacts through transitioning to low-carbon energy and developing new technologies.

1. THE HOT TOPIC 29 January 2008 Professor Sir David King Director, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment

2. THE EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE Source: Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July 2003) [figure 3.1]

3. THE EARTH’S ENERGY BUDGET Source: NASA

4. Source: Fedorov et al, Science 312 (2006) 1485 385ppm (2007) OBSERVED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

5. SIMULATED GLOBAL WARMING Source: Hadley Centre

6. EUROPEAN TEMPERATURES 1900-2100 Source: Hadley Centre

7. CLIMATE SENSITIVITY Source: Hadley Centre

8. PREDICTED TEMPERATURE CONTROL Source: IPCC fourth assessment report

9. MELTING OF GREENLAND ICE SHEET Source: Chen, J.L et al, Science Vol 313, pp1958-1960 (2006)

10. OBSERVED GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE These data, from a satellite launched in 1992, show the rise in global average sea level over the last decade Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

12. INCREASE IN RAIN FROM GLOBAL WARMING Year % Anomaly Tropic C Source: Wentz, F.J et al, Science 317 233, 2007

13. ANNUAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE FLOODED Source: IPCC

14. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN THE UK BY 2080

16. Emissions of CO 2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950 Source: WRI CAIT GT Co2 BURNING OF FOSSIL-FUELS

17. FUTURE WORLD ENERGY DEMAND Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2005

18. Source: Defra THE RISE IN EMISSIONS TO 2100

19. DELAYING MITIGATION WILL BE COSTLY Stabilising below 450ppm would require emissions to peak by 2010 with 6-10% p.a. decline thereafter If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise below 550ppm if we achieve annual declines of 1 – 2.5% afterwards. A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required Source: Stern Review

20. GLOBAL DIMENSIONS OF THE MITIGATION PROBLEM Source: Carbon Trust Source: IPCC 4AR

21. GDP AND EMISSIONS Source: Defra e-Digest of Environmental Statistics

23. THE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTE

24. In a business as usual scenario, most of the $20 trillion energy investment before 2030 would be in carbon-intensive technology Source: WEO, IEA 2006, ENERGY INVESTMENT

25. THE WEDGES SOLUTION TO UK EMISSIONS UK CO 2 annual production 2007 2025 2050 100 % 0 % 40 % CHP 100% 40% Source: adapted from S.Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, vol205, pp 968-972, 13 August 2004 Renewables Energy efficiency Nuclear CCS Transport Decentralised energy and micro generation Further developments

29. Demand from business 21 st century environmental challenges THE SMITH SCHOOL OF ENTERPRISE AND THE ENVIRONMENT Demand from academics and students Demand from governments NEED FOR A NEW APPROACH Source: The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

31. THE HOT TOPIC