A presentation from the WCCA 2011 conference in Birsbane.

1. Informing Policy Development for Sustainable
and Productive Food Production Systems in
Dry Areas
5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture and 3rd
Farming Systems Design Conference
26-29 September 2011, Brisbane- Australia
K. Shideed, ICARDA

2. Outline of the Presentation
 Context of global food production
 Status of water availability and on-farm WUE in
Dry Areas
 Pathways and interventions to improve efficiency
in Dry Areas
 Informing policy development
 Policy and research implications

3. Global Food Security Challenges
 In light of the growing impacts of climate change, there is a need to produce 70-100
% more food to meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in
prices (FAO)
 More than 1 Billion people suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition (IAASTD,
2009)
 These challenges are amplified by
 increased purchasing power and shifts in consumers’ preferences in many
countries
 Barriers to food access and distribution, particularly in poorest countries
 NR degradation
 Climate change
 Expensive energy
 Despite recent innovations and technological advances, this combination of drivers
poses complex challenges for global agriculture to ensure food security
 Dry areas face the alarming NR limitations and degradations, particularly water
scarcity.
 The goal of agricultural sector is NOT only to maximize productivity, but to optimize
it in terms of production, rural development, environmental and social outcomes.

4. Relationship between Food Production
and Poverty
 Growth in cereal
yields and lower
cereal prices
significantly reduced
food insecurity
 Proportion of
undernourished
population declined
from 26% to 14%
between 1967-71
and 2000-2002
Source: FAO. 2o11. Save and Grow. FAO, Rome

5. Crop Production: Area Expansion
and Yield Growth
 70% of the increase
in crop production
between 1961 and
2005 was due to
yield increase
 23% to the
expansion of arable
land
 8% to crop
intensification
 Area growth
dominated in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland.
K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC

6. World Grain Balance
(Consumption Exceeds Production)
2,500
Production Consumption
2,000
Million Tons
1,500
1,000
500
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: USDA

7. Productivity Growth is Declining
6
maize
Average annual growth rate (%)
5 rice
wheat
4
3
2
1
0
1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
Source: World Development Report 2008.

8. Cereal Productivity: Net Food Importing
Countries Lag Behind World Averages
Source: Adapted from FAO, 2008b.

9. Causes of Declining Productivity Growth:
Decreased Investment in Agricultural R-4-D
Since the mid-1970s, CGIAR funding levels have stagnated
In $ millions
9

10. Status of water availability and on-farm
WUE in Dry Areas

11. Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas
Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita
Australia/New Zealand 35
 Most countries in dry areas are Latin America & Caribbean 34.5
facing increasing water scarcity North America 20.3
Region
Europe & Central Asia 13
 MENA is the world’s most Sub-Saharan Africa 8
water-scarce region East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)
Western Europe 5.4
5.6
 Highest water withdrawn in dry South Asia 2.7
Middle East & North Africa
areas 1.1
0 10 20 30 40
 Future projections of population ARWR per capita (1000m /yr) 3
growth suggest further Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)
decrease in per capita water Middle East & North Africa 72.7
availability in dry areas (from South Asia 25.1
Western Europe 10.3
1100 m3/yr to 550 m3/yr in East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas) 9.4
2050) Region
North America 8
Europe & Central Asia 6.2
 Increased competition on water Australia/New Zealand 3.2
 More research investment for Sub-Saharan Africa 2.2
Percent of total renewable water
resources withdrawn
Latin America & Caribbean 1.4
efficient, sustainable , and 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
equitable water use Percent

12. Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty
and Access to Food
Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical
dry-area countries
 Water poverty contributes
greatly to the low HDI (human
poverty) of poor countries in
dry areas
 Direct relationship between
access to water and access to
food and feed security
Access to water and food in developing
countries and countries in transition
 Irrigation accounts for 80-90%
of all water used in dry areas
 Increasing competition on water
is expected to reduce
agriculture share to 50% by
2050

13. -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Tajikistan
Kyrgyztan
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Sudan
Turkey
Pakistan
Mauritania
Iran
Ethiopia
Syria
Lebanon
Eriterea
in Dry Areas
Uzbekistan
WPI
Morocco
Oman
Food In-Security
Tunisia
Algeria
FoodSI,x100
Egypt
Water Poverty Explains 43% of the
Yemen
Relationship between Food Security and WPI
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Jordan

14. Status of On-farm WUE
Wheat FWUE in Selected Areas in WANA
Farmer WUE %
FWUE = the ratio of the required 90
amount of water for a target
production level to the actual 70
amount of water used.
50
FWUE = 1 perfect efficiency
> 1 under -irrigation 30
< 1 over -irrigation
10
0
 Fixed, allocate-able input
model
 Variable input model
 Behavioral model  Own-crop price and acreage
 Cross-crop prices and acreages
 Irrigation technology
Factors Affecting Water Allocation  Crop choice
Decisions Are  Farmers’ perceptions on crop water requirements
 Amount of rainfall
 Socio-economic characteristics

15. Main Results of On-farm WUE and their Implications
 A wide gap between required and actual water application,
implying high potential for saving water (e.g., 40-60% in
wheat production).
 Producers perceive water as a fixed input in the short run,
but allocatable among competing crops on the farm
 Crop choice, crop prices, planted areas, irrigation
technology appear to be strong determinants of water
allocation in the short run among competing crops.
 Water prices, since they were highly subsidized, did not
have a major quantitative impact on water allocation.

16. Pathways and Interventions to Improve
Efficiency in Dry Areas

17. Pathways to Improve Efficiency
3 pathways
 Remove system
inefficiencies (B to D)
 Invest in
breakthrough
technologies that
increase the
efficiency of resource
use while reducing
risk (D to C)
 Invest in
breakthrough
technologies that
offer greater return
for the same level of
risk (D to F)
Source: Carberry, P., et al., 2010 and Keating et al., 2010.

18. Options to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas
 5 Interventions (among others)
 Closing the yield gap
 Investing in technology development and
promotion (e.g., CA)
 Sustainable intensification of production
systems
 Investing in water saving technologies
 Investing in agricultural R-4-D

19. Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas:
1. Closing the Yield Gap
Identifying Potential
Gains (Wheat in
Syria)
 Large gap
between
potential and
actual yields
 The need to
better
understand
causes for yield
gaps
 Opportunities for
increasing food
production

20. Potential Land Availability vs.
Potential for Increasing Yields
 Type 1: Little land
for expansion, low
yield gap
 Type 2: Suitable
land available, low
yield gap
 Type 3: Little land
available, high yield
gap
 Type 4: Suitable
land available, high
yield gap
Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland.
K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC

21. Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas:
2. Conservation Agriculture
Adoption of Conservation
Agriculture in WA:
 CA is spreading rapidly in
WA.
 Adoption has grown from
near-zero to more than
27,000 ha in four years
Driving Forces for Adoption
• Soil-moisture conservation, thus
improving WUE & reducing the
likelihood of crop failure
• Cost savings (fuel, labor, seeds)
• Better understanding of the impact
pathway
• Effectively linking R to D (PP
partnership)
• Active participation of farmers AusAID/ACIAR supported project on conservation agriculture in
• Enabling policy environment Iraq and Syria

22. Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas:
3. Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems
Integrated agricultural production systems for the poor
and vulnerable in dry areas (CRP1.1):
Two main target systems:
o Most vulnerable systems
o Systems with the greatest potential for impact
Objectives:
 Sustainable productivity growth and intensified production
systems at the farm and landscape levels
 More resilient dryland agro-ecosystems that can cope with
climate variation and change
 Less vulnerable and improved rural livelihoods
 Agricultural innovation systems that improve the impact of
research and development investments
Five Dryland Regions: West Africa Sahel and dry savannas,
East and Southern Africa, WANA, Central Asia, South Asia

23. Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry
Areas:
4. Water Saving Technologies (SI)
Curve water and yield(wheat z1 )
8000
With Improved SI 7000
Technology: 6000
yield (KG/Ha)
5000
• Produce more food 4000
3000
under the same level 2000 y = -0.00061x2 + 2.89495x + 3321.20559 y = -0.00037x2 + 2.16536x + 3037.50960
of water applied 1000 2
R = 0.73139 R2 = 0.62988
0
• Prevent the excessive 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
use of water Water (m3/ha)
sprinkler zone 1 surface zone 1 Poly. (sprinkler zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)
Poly. (surface zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)

24. Estimates of TE, IE and cost efficiency under SI,
wheat farms in Syria- 2010
Irrigation N Technical Irrigation Irrigation
methodz efficiency water water
(%) efficiency technical cost
(%) efficiency (%)
Surface 186 70 66 89
Improved 142 89 75 91
Total Farms 328 78 69.9 89.9
 Potential to increase wheat yield by 22%
 Potential to reduce the amount of water use by 30%
 potential to reduce total cost of production by 10%
 Even among farmers using improved technology (sprinklers), there still 25%
gap in irrigation water efficiency that need to be closed

25. Interventions to Improve Efficiency in Dry Areas:
5. Investing in Agricultural R-4-D
 R-4-D improves food security through sustainable
productivity growth
 R-4-D gives high returns to investment (65%)
 However, R-4-D has experienced significant under
investment (e.g., CGIAR)
 Importance of science and technological innovation to:
 Meet growing demand for food
 Maintain market competitiveness
 Address poverty
 Adapt to and mitigate cc

26. Role of Science and Technology in Sustainable
Food Production Systems
 Science is essential
but not sufficient to
ensure productivity
growth and food
security
 Importance of
Socioeconomic and
environmental
factors
Source: Austin (2010)

27. Informing Policy Development

28. Informing Policy Development
 Significant challenges to developing policies that support the development of
more sustainable land use and efficient production systems (Pretty, et al, 2010)
 The complexity and often lack of information flow between scientists,
practitioners and policy makers
 Political- economy factors can be crucial, particularly for management of NR
 Providing policy makers with new research information is necessary, but not
sufficient to foster adoption of recommendations by politicians
 There is a need to seek improved dialogue and understanding between
agricultural research and policy
 There is a need to ensure that policy decisions are informed by scientific
knowledge and priorities.
 It is, also, important that research should be focusing on priorities that
influence current and future policy frameworks and be relevant to the needs
and priorities of farmers

29. Adoption paths with Policy-oriented Research
 Without policy,
adoption would
have
accelerated
slowly.
 Adoption faster
and reached
higher ceiling
level under
policy
Alternative adoption paths due to research

30. Policies to Encourage Adoption of Water
Saving Technologies: Water User Charges
 Despite the benefits of ISI, the TSI is still
practiced by many farmers (78% of wheat
farmers) with an average irrigation water
application rate of 2600m3/ha.
 What can the government do to encourage
adoption? One option is to introduce “Water
User Charges”

31. Impact of Water User Charge on Water Use
and the Adoption of ISI (wheat in Syria)
 Promotes the User Charge Profit Actual Use by
conservation of ($/m3)* Maximizing Farmers (m3/ha)
scarce
Application Rate
groundwater
(m3/ha)
 Substantial
increases in water 0 2375 2686
charges to make
farmers apply the
recommended level
of water (demand 0.11 2075 (sprinklers)
is highly inelastic)
 Importance of
extension to reduce Water demand
the actual water 0.20 (82% 1800 (13% elasticity = - 0.16
use to its profit increase) decrease)
maximizing level
* User charge is charging a specific level of “water user charge” for every cubic
meter applied in excess of the recommended application level of 1800 m3/ha

32. Economic of Improved Technology
(Shift from TSI to ISI)
Item TSI +surface TSI +sprinklers ISI + sprinkler
canal
MP (kg/m3) 0.36 0.69 1.39
Yield (kg/ha) 4387 4829 4555
Adoption rate 55 23 22
(%)
Irrigation water 2600 1870 1480
application
(m3/ha)
Additional profit 162.0 235.5
($/ha/yr)
 Huge reduction in the amount of water applied,
 Big saving in the amount of diesel, total 49.8 B liters per year, value =$20M/yr

33. Policy and Research Implications

34. Policy and Research Implications
 Future agriculture should increase output and
efficiency of resources use
 Huge potential of technological innovation to
improve food security
 The need for supportive policies and institutions
to enhance the adoption
 The challenge is to inform the development of
enabling policies

35. Policy and Research Implications- continued
 Importance of land tenure in the adoption of soil-conserving and NRM
technologies (the need for secured land tenure)
 Investments in dry areas generate not only economic benefits, but important
environmental and social gains
 Policies create most of the conditions that lead to greater resource-use efficiency
 Well designed, and implemented policies are the key to efficient use of scarce
resources, growth in farm income and protection of the environment
 Key policy messages:
 Enabling policies to enhance the uptake and adoption of improved
technologies (e.g., CA, water saving technologies)
 Water valuation and pricing above a specific level of water use (water user
charges)
 Supporting R-4-D and Extension
 Increased investment in agriculture, particularly dry areas

36. Putting-it-all Together
Closing the yield gap and achieving sustainable
productivity growth involves not just transferring
known technologies and practices to farmers,
but
“Putting in place the institutional (and Policy)
structure—especially well-functioning input and
output markets, access to finance, and ways to
manage risk—that farmers need to adopt the
technology” (Keating et al., 2010)

37. Perspectives of Policy Makers/World Leaders
for Dry Areas
“Dryland farming is of
great importance for
global food security as
well as for a second
Green Revolution in
India”
--- H.E the President of
India, Smt. Pratibha Patil
The President of India (left) wants research partnerships to be expanded.
Rainfed agriculture – ICARDA’s core expertise – accounts for 40% of farmland in India.

38. Thank You
for Your Attention

39. Water Poverty in Dry Areas
Water resources are misused and are not managed sustainably,
thus contributing to scarcity
CWANA Ranking according to WPI - Selected Countries
160
Falkenmark_Rank WPI_Rank
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Turkey
Syria
Egypt
Algeria
Tajikistan
Tunisia
Turkmenistan
Yemen
Iran
Morocco
Kazakhstan
Sudan
Pakistan
Uzbekistan
Ethiopia

40. Potential Availability of
Uncultivated Land in Different
Regions
More than half of land
potentially available for
expansion of cultivated
area is located in ten
countries, of which five
are in Africa
Source: The World Bank. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland.
K. Deiniger and D. Byerlee et al., WB, Washington DC

41. Concluding Remarks
 Next Revolution in Food Production:
 Bridges yield gap & develops breakthrough innovations (technologies)
 Removes inefficiencies in production and resources use
 Targets sustainable productivity growth
 “Knowledge- intensive” NOT “input/resource intensive”
 Addresses food and nutritional security
 Goes beyond cereals and diversify to include high-value crops
 Deals with sustainability and environment
 Based on intensification and integrated system approach (agro-ecology, agro-
forestry, and conservation agriculture)
 Requires enabling policy, institution and market environments
 Addresses social inequalities

42. Main Elements of Sustainable Food Security
 What involves? 4Es
 Efficiency
 Environment
 Equity
 Enabling policy and market environments
 How?
 R-4-D & E
 Partnerships
 Increased investments in agriculture
 Conductive policies for efficiency gains
 Risk management systems
 Connectivity (knowledge and markets)
 Capacity development

43. Informing Policy development
 Food security concerns led to policy debate
 Current ag. Policies in developing
countries are inadequate, and ineffective
in protecting the fragile NR base
 Land degradation and water scarcity are
occurring rapidly, in both dryland and
irrigated systems
 It is hard to protect and conserve
communal owned NR (rangeland & water)
The need to inform policy development through
“conceptual influence”

44. Food Price Inflation and Volatility:
A Wake-up Call for Leaders and Institutions
Price Index, July 2008 = 100 (Prices through to end January
120 2011)
110 Agricultural Price…
Agricultural Price Index
Grain Price Index
Grain Price Index
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

45. Links between Rainfall and GDP Growth
(Ethiopia)
 Agriculture is most
vulnerable sector
 There is close
association
between GDP
growth and rainfall
(in Ethiopia)
 Indicates the
importance of
rainfed farming
and high
dependence on
agriculture
Source: The World Bank. 2009. Making Development Climate
Resilient. Report N0. 46947-AFR