Presentation by Sy Martial Traoré, Agrhymet/CILSS, providing information about 2018/2019 provisional food production and the regional market situation. The 2018-19 harvests are generally excepted to be good.

1. Banjul, December 2018
34nd ANNUAL MEETING
2018/2019 season
provisional figures and the
regional market situation
by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

2. Plan
• Background
• Reminder about the progress of 2018/2019 cropping season
• 2018/2019 provisional cereal production figures
• Provisional cereal food balance for 2018/2019
• 2018/2019 roots and tubers production figures
• 2018/2019 leguminous production figures
• Pastoral situation
• Outcomes Analysis : HEA
• Regional nutrition situation
• Regional market situation
• Recommendations

3. Background
• Joint CILSS/FAO/FEWSNET/WFP and Governments preharvest assessments
have been conducted in all the 17 countries from October to November 2018;
• The production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have been
presented and validated during the regional PREGEC meeting in Abidjan 19 to 21
November 2018;
• Representant from from all 17 countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC
meeting;
• 14 Countries have conducted crop assessment sample survey :Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cabo Verde, Gambia, Ghana; Guinea ; Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Mauritania, Togo,
Sierra Leone, Senegal, Chad;
• 3 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and historical
data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau Guinea;
• Forage balance sheet improvement but only : Burkina, Mauritania, Niger, Tchad
• Weaknesses : Ex post, cereal balance and Food balance sheets; Animal and fish
productions

4. Progress of 2018/2019 cropping season
• Beginning last: planting of the main
rainfed crops was effective in the
second dekad of July, in the region
and end late.
• The installation of the agricultural
season was generally latest in the
western Sahel than the rest of the
region,
• Rainfall globally above average led
to flood in many countries:
• The level of satisfaction of water
needs was generally good during
the season, except in North
Senegal, South-West Mauritania
and some localities of Central and
West Mali.
• The 2018-2019 harvests (yields) are
generally excepted to be on
average level to good

5. Progress of 2018/2019 cropping season
Hydrological situation :
• all rivers basins runoff in excess of
the hydrological norm (Bakel,
Koulikoro)
• Rapid withdrawal runoff is excepted
at end of the season
Risk of food insecurity due to FAWCountries affected aera (Ha) Treated aera (ha) Rate
1Benin 156 773 16758 11%
2Burkina 101 332 68926 68%
3Ghana 85 156 85931 101%
4Guinée 910 787 87%
5Mali 7 374 6643 90%
6Niger 800 800 100%
7Sénégal 3 657 3857 105%
Total 356 001 183 701 52%
Phytosanitary Situation
• Fall armyworm : Continuing to establish in
the region;
Infestation situation for this season in some countries

6. Progress of 2018/2019 cropping season
Highlight on FAW situation
management
(CILSS/FAO/CEDEAO)
Weakness in
Coordination of FAW
management
• Task and road map
are not yet set;
• uncontrolled
pesticides
• No reliable monitoring
mechanism;
• Short of resources for
extension services
Exposure Risk of FAW

7. 2018/2019 provisional cereal production figures
74.2 million mT, increased by 8% vs last year and 18% vs average 5years
49
58
46
56
47
56 55
61
64
67 69
74
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Prodx1,000,000mT
Regional cereal production trend 2007-2018 (millionT)
21%
21%
11%
18%

8. 2018/2019 provisional cereal production figures
Countries Prov. 2018/2019 Var 2017/2018 (%)
Var Average
2012/2017 (%)
Burkina Faso 4 953 217 22 12
Cap Vert 3 893 -8
Gambie 89 964 - 27 - 51
Guinée Bissau 224 164 7 5
Mali 10 452 980 12 34
Mauritanie 428 782 18 27
Niger 5 954 177 2 13
Sénégal 2 732 109 8 47
Tchad 3 003 363 11 12
Bénin 2 354 443 14 32
Côte d'Ivoire 3 475 217 6 12
Guinée 3 942 133 4 12
Ghana 3 628 397 15 28
Liberia 257 995 4 -6
Nigeria 29 886 715 6 17
Sierra Leone 1 510 463 -0,1 22
Togo 1 339 107 3 6
Situation per country
Production (mT)
• Vs 2017/2018 season
• Vs Average 5 years

9. 2018/2019 Provisional cereal production figures
Situation per cereal
Items
Production
Million mT
Var. 2017/2018 (%)
Var. Average 5yrs
(%)
 Maize 26 103 383 8 25
 Paddy Rice 21 703 051 9 20
 Sorghum 14 434 186 8 13
 Millet 10 731 947 7 15
 Fonio/Acha 665 152 - 0,2 4
 Wheat 87 485 5 - 29
 Berbere/(sorghum) 510 415 - 2 8

10. 2018/2019 Provisional cereal production figures
Cereal production per head
Countries Prov. 2018/2019 Var 2017/2018 (%)
Var Average 2012/2017
(%)
Burkina Faso 246 5 -2%
Cap Vert 7 -33 -28
Gambie 42 -54 -62
Guinée Bissau 113 -5 -8
Mali 523 14 45
Mauritanie 105 48 -47
Niger 269 -6 27
Sénégal 174 18 44
Tchad 198 1 -1
SAHEL 273 6 11%

11. 2018/2019 Provisional cereal production figures
Cereal production per head
Countries
Prov. 2018/2019
Kg/capita
Var 2017/2018 (%)
Var Average 2012/2017
(%)
Bénin 204 26 30
Côte d'Ivoire 134 8 7
Guinée 323 -4 7
Ghana 123 18 17
Liberia 59 -8 -50
Nigeria 151 0 37
Sierra leone 160 20 -10
Togo 173 -2 -7
Pays Côtiers 155 3 9
Ensemble Zone 185 4 5

12. Regional Provisional Cereal balance Sheet (2018/2019)
Post Rice Wheat Millet, sorghum, maize, Fonio Total
Population at. 30/04/2019 400 681 510
5. Exceed(+)/Déficit(-) net 9 928 085 154 938 5 562 434 15 645 457
6. Apparent availability/HBT(kg) 61 10 114 185
4. import/export sold 9 857 836 2 261 197 688 411 12 807 444
Importations (2018/2019) 9 907 353 2 266 367 816 807 12 990 527
+ Private 9 860 910 2 263 527 775 586 12 900 023
+ Autres importations 11 838 0 34626 46464
+ help 34 605 2 840 6595 44040
Exportations prévues 49 517 5 170 128396 183083
3. Exceed (+)/Déficit(-) Gross 70 249-2 106 259 4 874 023 2 838 013
2. Requirement 14 388 150 40 37 847 39 919 783 58 345 779
Consomption standards (kg/hbt/an) 34 10 95 139
Human need 13 703 229 3 874 896 37 928 313 55 506 437
Final stocks 684 921 162 951 1 991 470 2 839 342
- Rural household stocks 87 550 730 411 467 499 747
- Other stocks 606 498 164 922 1 589 045 2 360 465
1. Availability 14 458 399 1 931 588 44 793 806 61 183 793
Final Production 2018/2019 21 703 051 87 485 52 446 583 74 237 119
Production available 13 376 806 1 681 446 43 506 982 58 565 234
Initial stocks (carryover stock) 1 081 593 250 142 1 286 824 2 618 559
- Rural household stocks 430836 0 568 148 998 984
- Other stocks 650 757 250 142 718 676 1 619 575

13. Regional Cereal balance Sheet
Countries Rice Wheat
Millet, sorghum,
maize, fonio
Total
Burkina Faso -117 442 -49 458 928 818 761 918
Cap Vert 6 515 -1 179 -34 092 -28 756
Gambie 99 072 12 116 -112 436 -1 248
G Bissau -91 288 -4 702 -31 260 -127 250
Mali 894 030 113 840 3 235 150 4 243 020
Mauritanie 64 356 202 619 -33 539 233 436
Niger 368 679 -118 976 538 464 788 166
Sénégal -255 844 160 015 390 635 294 806
Tchad -1 898 -119 892 199 514 77 724
SAHEL 966 180 194 382 5 081 254 6 241 816
Entities Rice Wheat
Millet, sorghum,
maize, fonio Total
Zone UEMOA 2 795 522 323 903 5 782 567 8 901 993
Zone CEDEAO 9 865 627 72 211 5 396 459 15 334 297
CILSS 3 235 612 356 474 6 698 341 10 290 427
Easten basin 7 824 611 -254 579 -68 457 7 501 575
Central basin 2 115 552 148 830 5 056 316 7 320 699
Western basin -12 078 260 686 574 575 823 184
Countries situations Regional entities
Gross Deficit
Cap vert
Gambie
Guinée-Bissau
Mauritanie
Sénégal
Côte d’Ivoire
Ghana
Libéria
Nigeria
Sahelian Countries
Costal Countries
Bénin 104679 -53490 328 043 379 232
Côte d'Ivoire 1894266 323149 322 424 2 539 840
Guinée 272044 -61092 896 326 1 107 278
Ghana -553744 -192226 499 631 -246 339
Liberia 53647 0 0 53 647
Nigeria 7353150 37780 -1 134 479 6 256 451
Sierra Leone -160580 -47091 -501 059 -708 729
Togo -1557 -46475 70 293 222 60
Costal Count. 8 961 905 -39444 481 180 940 3641
TOTAL 9 928 085 154938 5 562 434 15 645 457

14. Roots and Tubers production final figure
(2018/2019)
Crop
Production
Million mT
Var. 2017/2018
(%)
Var. Average 5yrs (%)
Cassava 97 034 080 5 17
Yam 73 557 640 3 20
Sweet potato 5 195 242 6 14
Irish potato 1 594 814 - 6 10
Taro/Coco yam 9 808 724 6 99
Total 187 190 500 4 21

15. Leguminous and oil seeds provisional
production figure (2018/2019)
Crops
Production
Million mT
Var. 2017/2018 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%)
Groundnut 10 030 571 5 29
Cotton 1 838 982 -10 -13
Cowpea 8 236 716 13 23
Palm Oil 3 400 947 4 30
Sesame 3 802 341 2 84
Soyabean 1 549 973 10 30
Bambaranut 217 059 17 59
other 145 015 69 155
Total 29 221 604 6 29

16. Pastoral situation
The comparison of the 2018 fodder production with the previous 5
years median is generally good but highlights significant fodder
deficit in Mauritania and some localities of Senegal, Mali, Burkina-
Faso and Niger
Comparison of the 2018 fodder production with 2013-2017 median

17. Pastoral situation
Pastoral condition:
Production :Good compared to last year
80% of pasture zones productivity are good in Sahelian zone
High mortality of livestock last year
Zoo sanitation : Foot and mouth disease and others diseases
Livestock prices are variables from markets, species, and zones;
Accessibility of pasture zone are very difficult : Liptako Gourma, Niger and Mali border;
Lac Chad zones

18. Outcomes analysis : HEA
Regional OA
Sept-Oct 2018
• 9 Countries : BF,
ML, NE, NG, CD,
TG, GN, MR, GB
• DPME 6
countries : CD,
NG, MR; NE; BE;
ML
• DS 2 Countries :
NE et NG

19. Nutritional situation
• A deterioration of the
nutritional situation :
Chad, Mauritania, Niger;
• SAM National above
emergency level:G5-
Sahel countries;
• Trends in admissions
(SAM) recorded in 2018
showed increases:
+6.3% (Vs 2017);
• But : MAM admissions
have significantly
decrease due to
weakness of support

20. Regional markets situation
Context
Good cereal production compare to last
year and average;
Persistence of inflation in many
countries in the region (SL, LI, NG, GH,
GN, GB);
Reinforcing of cross-border flow but
persistence of road harassment;
Persistence of civil insecurity in several
parts of the regional:
• In the Lake Chad area
• In the north of Mali
• In the Liptako Gourma area
• Niger and Mali borders
Market supply
Overall level of cereal supplies is
improving because of good
harvest and imported products
available in the market;
Market stock levels are slightly
low compare to last year;
Market demand
The demand is decreasing
compare to the last year situation
especially for Millet, sorghum
and maize.

21. Regional market situation
Cereal price
-1-.50.51
Changedvsaverge5yrs
Maize Millet Sorghum Local rice Imported rice
Overall increase in cereal prices (2.5-4.4%), all the crop are concerned
Commodities Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice
Var. Aou18
2-7% 11-19% 16-21% 10-18% 11-14%
Var Oct 17 8-14% 15-21% 16-22% 5-10% 9-14%
1-5% 3-8% 6-11% 3-6% 2-6%

23. Regional market situation

24. Regional market situation
Cash crop products prices variations
11%
5%
3% 3%
15%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Groundnut Cowpea Sesame Soyabean Palm oil

25. Regional market situation
Livestock prices variations
5%
-6%
-20%
-12%
-17%
5%
-3%
-17% -23%
-6%
-4%
20%
-3%
-20%
-6%
5%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Mali Burkina Tchad Niger Sénégal Mauritanie
Cattle Sheep Goat

26. Regional market situation
Term of Trade : Overall deterioration
-13%
-38%
-5% 1%
10%
-13%
12% 12%
10%
-7%
-21%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Niger Mali Burkina Tchad Mauritania Senegal
Goat/millet(wheat) Sheet/Wheat cowpea/G-Nut

27. Regional market situation
Projected situation made for lean period

28. Recommendations
To Countries:
• Engage with partners, the process of building response
plans for vulnerable populations;
• Undertake sustainable actions against malnutrition to
significantly reduce high prevalence of GAM;
• Strengthen and maintain information watch on the markets
and areas at risk of forage deficit;
• Operationalize national management taskforces for the
control of the armyworm and ensure their regular operation;
• Continue efforts for water mobilization, promote context-
specific irrigation systems and large hydro-agricultural
schemes to improve the level of agricultural production.

29. Recommendations
To CILSS and partners:
 Support countries in the effective and sustainable management of the
armyworm;
 Mobilize more resources to support countries in their efforts to effectively and
sustainably manage armyworm in the region;
 Support national mechanisms for collecting, processing and disseminating
information on Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security and Resilience;
 Contribute to the financing of humanitarian assistance programs for
populations requiring immediate assistance
 Prepare Food security and market assessment join mission in February 2019.
 Strengthen national MIS for monitoring and price analysis systems, strengthen
monitoring of cross-border flows;
 Update the consumption standard for each country of the regional

30. Many thanks for your attention!