The document discusses the role of agriculture in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It outlines how agriculture can directly and indirectly contribute to reducing poverty and hunger, improving health and education outcomes, and promoting environmental sustainability. However, it also notes challenges like decreasing cereal stocks and rising food prices that could threaten progress toward the MDGs. The presentation examines the link between agriculture and each MDG, and considers different scenarios for world cereal production and malnutrition based on policy approaches.

1. INTERNATIONAL FOOD
POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty
Food, Nutrition, Agriculture
and the Millennium
Development Goals
Joachim Von Braun
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
IICA, May 28th 2004

2. Overview of Presentation
1. Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) origin, concept and pitfalls
2. The role of Agriculture on MDGs
3. Challenges and disruptions on path
to achieving MDGs
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3. Origin and concept of MDGs
 Millennium Declaration Goals
 Strong international commitment
 Eight Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs), and one or more targets for
each.
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4. Millennium Development Goals
1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower
women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development
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5. Towards achieving MDGs: Trend of
undernourished people
Developing World
950
920 Developing world without China
Millions Undernourished
900
850
800 817
750 780 798
700
650
663
600 616 624 635
550
500
1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001
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6. Problems facing MDG achievement
 Theoretical problem: for efficient
achievement of goals you need at least
as many instruments as goals
(Tinbergen)
 A goal by goal approach may lead to
inefficient instrument portfolios (e.g.
agriculture, infrastructure neglected)
 Roadmap to reach MDGs is missing
 Lack of country and regional strategy
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7. Agriculture and MDGs
 Agriculture is important in stimulating
sustainable economic growth and rural
employment, and it can be the
cornerstone for food security and poverty
reduction
 Agriculture serves many of the MDGs
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8. MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger
and poverty
Agriculture plays a crucial role in poverty
and hunger eradication
Agriculture employment and undernourishment,
1996 - 2000
< 2. 5
undernourished
% of population
2. 5 - 4
5 - 19
20 -3 4
> 35
0% 10% 20% 3 0% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Agr icultur e emp loyment as a % of total emp loyment ( %)
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Source: FAO, 2003

9. MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger
and poverty
DIRECT EFFECTS
1. Agricultural productivity growth
increases food availability and raises farm
income improving consumption levels
2. Improves asset levels to enhance
production and diminishes effects of
shocks in the future
3. Increased production will decrease prices,
improving purchasing power of the poor
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10. MDG 1: Eradicate extreme hunger
and poverty
INDIRECT EFFECTS
1. Households depending on rural non-farm
economy and agro-industrial sector will:
 Increase income
 Lead to more diversified and resilient economies
 Increase demand for agricultural products
(virtuous cycle)
2. Agriculture as engine of growth across all
other national economies
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11. MDG 2: Achieve Universal Primary
Education
1. Use of labor saving agricultural technology,
reduces opportunity cost of farmer’s children
attending school.
2. Broad economic growth will demand
increasingly skilled labor, increasing returns
of investing in children’s education
3. Agriculture-led economic growth should free
more public resources to invest in education
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12. MDG 3: Promote gender equality
and empower women
Improving agricultural productivity and
empowering women works both ways:
1. Women’ s principal productive activities
are in agriculture in developing world.
Improving agriculture institutions in
which women participate will promote
economic opportunities for women.
2. Gender equality is a precondition for
agriculture and rural development
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13. MDG 4: Reduce child mortality
1. Agriculture assures food and nutrition
security, decreasing child mortality
2. Women as caregivers: agricultural labor
and time saving innovations will free time
to care for their children
3. Dynamic agricultural sector will free
resources for health spending
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14. MDG 5: Improve maternal health
1. Agriculture can improve the quality
of diets of women, improving
maternal health
2. Increasing micronutrient content in
food crops, declines prevalence of
micronutrient deficiency among
women, making maternal mortality
rates drop.
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15. MDG 6: Combat HIV/AIDS,
malaria and other diseases
1. Good nutrition achieved though a dynamic
agriculture will help mitigate impacts of
HIV/AIDS
2. Improved agricultural productivity
reduces risky behaviors, e.g. labor
migration exposes population to new
diseases.
3. Agricultural technology can create labor
saving techniques for HIV affected
households facing loss of labor power.
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16. MDG 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability
1. Agriculture is the biggest user of water. Need
for an efficient and sustainable agricultural
sector and the public revenues that accrue
from it that will enable greater levels of public
provision of safe drinking water and
improved sanitation.
2. A productive and sustainable agricultural
system requires less land, leaving marginal
agricultural lands to other uses (forests and
other critical habitats)
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17. MDG 7: Ensure environmental
sustainability (Cont’d)
3. Population pressures in urban slums can be
alleviated with profitable agriculture systems
4. Proper agricultural policies have the
potential of allowing full costs of agricultural
technologies to be considered:
• reducing the scope for excessive nutrient run-off
from agriculture
• providing incentives for efficient energy use in the
sector
• ecologically sustainable use of a range of
technologies
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18. MDG 8: Develop a global
partnership for development
1. International agriculture institutions are
ahead in terms of global partnership. MDGs
could learn from this experience (e.g. CGIAR,
GFAR)
2. Need for a harmonized and rationalized
global agricultural trade that will benefit poor
agricultural producers
3. PRSPs should target agriculture as its the
economic foundation for most poor people
4. Effective agricultural development will help
decrease youth unemployment.
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19. Challenges to MDGs?
Decreasing World Cereal Stocks
World Cereal Stocks
700
600
500
million tons
400
300
200
100
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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20. Challenges to MDGs?
Increasing World Cereal Prices
Maize and Wheat International Prices
165
Maize
155 Wheat
145
135
U$S/Ton
125
115
105
95
85
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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21. Projections to 2015
Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and
Rural Development
Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in
Protectionism Worldwide
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Scenario:
Adverse Technology/Natural Resource
Interactions
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22. World Cereal Production
Progressive Policy Actions
3,500 Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
3,000
million mt
2,500
2,000
1,500
1997 2015 2030 2050
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23. Number of Malnourished Children
in the World
200
160
Million children
120
80
Progressive Policy Actions
40
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
0
1997 2015 2030 2050
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24. Contribution of Agriculture to MDGs
Direct and Indirect contribution of  : strong
 : medium
agriculture to MDG achievement  : low
1. Eradicate extreme hunger and poverty 
2. Achieve universal primary education 
3. Promote gender equality and empower 
women
4. Reduce child mortality 
5. Improve maternal health 
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other 
diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability 
8. Develop a global partnership for 
development
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