1. Evaluating Your Innovation
Practice Using Future Scenarios
A WEBINAR BY INNOVATION 360
PRESENTER: KAMAL HASSAN

2. Why Innovate?
Yesterday: Innovation strengthened competitive advantage,
impacted strategy, and stimulated growth.
Today: Innovation defines competitive advantage, drives
strategy, and is a fundamental prerequisite for growth.
Tomorrow: Innovation will be the ONLY practical source of
competitive advantage, will dictate strategy, and will
determine whether an organization will grow or die.

3. Some definitions
A Trend:
The direction is which a relevant condition, output, process
or general tendency is emerging or changing. This could
be markets, behaviors, technologies or capabilities
A Scenario:
A scenario is a STORY that describes a possible future.
Scenarios are based on emerging trends, their relevance
and impact

4. Characteristics of Each Scenario
 It should result from a mixture of different perspectives
 It reflects both qualitative and quantitative aspects of a trend or
group of trends
 They are different from forecasts as they do not require 100%
agreement from everyone but should be conceivable based on
trends analyses

5. Trends framework and grouping
All Trends
Drivers
Mega Forces
Changing
Stakeholder
Needs
Solutions
Emerging
Substitutes
Emerging
Capabilities
Economic, Political, Social, Cultural
Customer Influencers and expectations,
Channels to customer, Supplier and partner
needs
New Offerings
Technology, Skills, Competencies

6. Drivers and Solutions
Drivers
These are the concepts, challenges,
behaviors, technologies that are likely
to call for new set of metrics to solve
or are likely to affect the demand in
the near or far future
Solutions
These are the new and emerging
trends that are being developed to
tackle the challenges presented by
the drivers

7. Drivers
• Mega forces: In the next 10 years, global political, social
and economic issues will affect the financial services
sector and importantly, retail banking.
• Changing stakeholder needs: Customers are demanding
a different kind of experience from banks. Shareholders
and other interested parties are becoming increasingly
uncertain about the future of their assets
Solutions
• Changing Capabilities: Example: The dynamic growth of
technology in banking is affecting the nature of retail
banking channels and the corresponding skills needed to
effectively deploy banking services
• Substitutes: Disruptive innovations are creating new
alternatives to banking. Most of these alternatives are
simpler, faster or cheaper to use.
Grouping: Drivers and Solutions

8. Impact
Certainty
High
High
Timeline
Already
Happening
Near Future Far
Future
Impact-CertaintyFactor
High
Developing the Scenarios

9. Trends are grouped as shown below
Drivers
Mega
Forces
Changing
Stakeholde
r Needs
Solutions
Emerging
Substitutes
Emerging
Capabilitie
s
TRENDS AND KEY QUESTIONS
• Trends span across both types
and categories (Drivers and
Solutions)
• Forming the scenarios require
understanding how the trend will
evolve (already happening. near
future, far future)
• Asking Key Questions are
necessary elements for forming
each of the Scenarios [judging
by these trends, what will a
typical consumer expect?]
• By combining similar and
different trends, illustrative
answers to the key questions are
generated which are necessary
for formulating the Scenarios.
Scenario
Testing Factors
Occurrence
Factor
Differentiating
Factor
Decision-
Making Utility
Developing the Scenarios

10. We will take a brief look at a
retail banking as a case study
Trends and Scenarios built used here are not exhaustive as they are
only used to illustrate a methodology

11. Analytics get real time and mobility becomes priority
Demand for online banking is set to grow considerably over time
Consumers are seeking greater customization,
faster automated transactions
Alternative currencies will emerge the landscape
Customers will gravitate towards simplicity
There will be a growing dominance of the
generation Y consumer demographic
Transparent corporate governance and risk management
issues will be key focus areas
Impact
Certainty
High
High
Timeline
Already
Happening
Near Future Far
Future
Impact-Certainty
Factor
High
Banking Example

12. Key questions
 Judging by these trends, what will a typical consumer expect? [ This
question tends towards changing stakeholder needs]
 In which other ways would consumers bank? [This question tends
towards changing capabilities and emerging substitutes]

13. Scenario 1: Context Banking
Scenario Outline (Simplified)
The consumers’ ‘know-me’ expectation will be stronger. Banks will
therefore be embedded into the lives of the customers. customer
relations will be less transactional but will seek to “peep” into the lives
of the customers through inferences, recommend services or solutions.
Real time information will be available per time/or per transaction on
mobile devices and customers will demand further convenience.
Smartcards will be replaced by digital mobile devices. There will be a
near-extinction of physical bank branches. Examples of solutions at this
stage will be personalized budgeting and budget control, expense
control, expense analytics and tracking and probably also loan
recommendations based on income levels or automated advisory.

14. Scenario 2: Deregulated Banking
Scenario Outline (Simplified)
There will be an introduction of alternative currencies and platforms.
Money as we know it will change in definition and people will have the
power to trade in totally digitized currencies which may not have any
physical representation. Conventional trade and payments will be
made by these currencies beyond the reach of national governments
and regulatory institutions. Banks will stand the risk of losing their value
as this currency will be cheaper to trade in than the conventional
currencies. Tensions will be created between banks, governments and
the providers of this currency. Banks may need to reinvent themselves.

15. Scenario Quality
Scenario Occurrence
Factor
Differentiation
Factor
Decision-Making utility
Context Banking
Deregulated Banking
Occurrence Factor
Check if the scenario can
conceivably happen
Differentiation Factor
Check if the scenario is not
fundamentally the same with
any other stated scenario
Decision-Making Utility
Check if the scenario can
help the decision makers to
make informed decisions

16. Scenarios can be used for…
Studying and analyzing the
implications of future events
to your organization
Assessing the effectiveness
of your current innovation
processes in tackling the
challenges of the futureInternal strategy: Innovation, Pricing, Market
Entry, Suppliers etc.
Competitor Responses and Analysis
Challenges To The Industry
Consumer Responses and Analysis
YourBusiness
Current
Innovation
Winninginthe
Future
Optimum
Innovation

17. Strategy, Enablers, Leadership,
Execution
Strategy: The overall combination of plans, processes and activities that increases
the possibilities of achieving the desired innovation goal(s) at a specific period and
under specific conditions
Enablers: The tools and technology needed to the desired results stated in the
strategic plan
Leadership: The methods and frameworks needed to achieve and build the human
resources and talent that make the needed innovation culture possible
Execution: The process of implementing the needed strategic plan and all other
factors necessary to launch the new systems, products, operations or business
models

18. Scenarios
Every Scenario has its Optimum Strategy which dictates what the Enablers,
Leadership and Execution frameworks should be
Optimum: Describes the best, most suitable and most effective option for a given condition
Optimum
Innovation
Strategy
Enablers
Leadership
Execution

19. Evaluating your current Innovation
Strategy
Your Current Innovation Strategy
Does your current innovation strategy ....
Encourage experimentation by having limited fixed-cost
infrastructure?
Business model is adaptable and poised to test for
assumptions?
Adaptable to an emergent strategy rather than fixed on
a deliberate strategy?
Learns and adapt rather that assume and insist
Hires and emphasizes skills that deal with handling
uncertainties and spotting signals

20. Current Innovation (along the 4
dimensions)
Optimum Innovation Strategy
(along the 4 dimensions)
Benchmarks you against practices
needed for winning, preventing
disruption and crossing sector boundaries
in a future scenario
Analyzes where you are currently
Current and Optimum(future)

21. Understanding the gaps
Encourage experimentation by
having limited fixed-cost
infrastructure
Business model is adaptable and
poised to test for assumptions
Adaptable to an emergent
strategy rather than fixed on a
deliberate strategy
Learns and adapt rather that
assume and insist
Hires and emphasizes skills that
deal with handling uncertainties
and spotting market signals
Readiness and enablement of
infrastructure for rapid experimenting
and prototyping
Business Model Adaptability to the
elements of the scenario
Overall strategy can be adapted to an
emergent strategy suitable for
competing in the scenario
Organization culture and processes
People learning and development
OPTIMUM INNOVATION STRATEGYYOUR CURRENT INNOVATION
STRATEGY
??
??
??
??
??
GAPS

22. Examples of Optimum Innovation
Strategy options for Scenario:
Deregulated Banking
 Innovation Governance system (function-based)
 Creating an autonomous business unit to compete with potential entrants into digitized currency
spaces
 Allowing knowledge transfer from existing business to a new and autonomous(separate) business
unit
 Constant evaluation of ‘digital’ spaces to innovate in (adaptation)
 Strategic Partnerships with regulators and governments
 Strategic partnerships with digital e-payment platforms
 Decisions on vertical integration vs modular service delivery: which of our products do we deliver
by covering the whole value chain needed in delivering it and which ones can we outsource
some of the units in the value chain? (remove unnecessary rigidity)
 Make constant and incremental changes towards further digitized representations of
conventional currencies

23. Q and A
 For more information, send us an e-mail at:
solutions@i360institute.com

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COMPANY PROFILE

25. Who we are
Innovation 360 Institute works with companies and government entities throughout the world to bridge the gap between strategy and
execution by employing transformational innovation methods and leadership development. Whether you want to implement a strategy
for breakthrough innovation, develop new products and services, explore new business models, create operational value, or increase the
innovation and leadership competencies of your people, we can help you reach your goals.
OurValues
At Innovation 360 Institute, we are committed to Innovation, the key to profitability and sustainability. This commitment Inspires our
clients to new heights of creativity and excellence, giving them Insight to their organization’s true potential and capability.
We positively Impact our clients’ innovation success rate by helping them devise a results-oriented yet realistic innovation strategy, one
that creates new value through innovative products and services. We also give their people the knowledge, skills and leadership abilities to
execute this strategy, as well as to creatively solve complex business issues.
Throughout this process, Innovation 360 maintains our Integrity by exceeding our clients’ expectations and actively transferring our
capability and knowledge.

26. How we help
Innovation 360 helps you develop a customized strategy for innovation, growth and transformation.We guide your organization through
each stage of a carefully designed 5-Step framework, help you bring your ideas to market, and improve your innovation leadership
competencies.
Foresight
Foresight is aimed at helping your organization assess the current state of your innovation portfolio,
as well as your readiness for future scenarios.This comprehensive evaluation also covers relevant
FUTURE SCENARIOS and their implication to your future success. We provide a comprehensive
recommendation based on this.To learn more: http://i360institute.com/foresight
IdeaFusion
IdeaFusion helps you generate Ideas from a dedicated community either ad hoc or around a specific
challenge. Using an updated approach to soliciting ideas, as well as proven ideation tools and
methods, IdeaFusion enables collaborative creativity for empowering innovation in your
organization.To learn more: http://i360institute.com/ideafusion
InPulse
InPulse, our benchmarking solution gives you the competitive edge to see and rank your
company against your industry peers and very innovative global businesses. Be it in
innovation, new product development, sales or marketing, it covers all major functional
areas.
Our solution includes pre- and post-visit workshops and onsite visits, providing you with an
exclusive opportunity to learn from award-winning organizations.
To learn more: http://i360institute.com/inpulse
Our 5-Step Innovation Framework
Innovation Leadership Workshops
We help you build your organization’s human
capital and innovation capabilities through our
advanced, hands-on workshops and seminars
including:
• Innovation 101Training
• Innovation ManagementTraining
• Executive Innovation Seminars
• Open EnrollmentWorkshops
• Lego Serious Play® Methodology