This document discusses the political advertising landscape for the 2016 election cycle. It notes that 8 of the 10 key presidential battleground states will also have competitive Senate and/or gubernatorial races. It provides data showing that political advertising makes up an increasingly large share of advertising in important primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire in the months leading up to those states' primaries. As political advertising rises, shares for other major advertising categories like auto and retail tend to decline. The document outlines a busy political calendar for 2016 and makes predictions about how the election may impact Senate races.

1. © Kantar Media
The Political Ad Wars
Navigating a Turbulent Airscape
With CRO Jon Swallen &
SVP of Political Advertising Elizabeth Wilner

2. Huge overlap between competitive presidential and statewide markets
2016 Market Madness
8 of 10 presidential battlegrounds have a competitive Senate race, governor’s race, or both:
• Colorado
• Florida
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin

3. Trifecta States
Trifecta States
New Hampshire (Boston) Toss-Up Senate race + open, Toss-
Up governor’s race (Sept primary)
North Carolina Lean R Senate race +
Toss-Up governor’s race
Ohio Lean R Senate race + open, Toss-Up
WV governor’s race (southern Ohio)

4. Twofer States
Twofer States
Colorado (+ Albuquerque) Lean D Senate race
Florida Toss-Up Senate race
(two open Aug 30 primaries)
Iowa Likely R Senate race
(SCOTUS)
Nevada Toss-Up Senate Race
Pennsylvania Lean R Senate race
(contested D April 26 primary)
Wisconsin Toss-Up Senate race
Virginia (DC) Likely D but open Senate Race
in MD

5. Hot Downballot Markets
Hot Markets
Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacto Senate race + ballot measures
St. Louis Likely R Senate race +
Toss-Up governor’s race
Indianapolis Likely R but open Senate race
(contested R May 3 primary)

6. A Trump Ticket Could…
Nudge several
battleground/historically
Dem states to GOP due to
white male populations in
Iowa, Michigan, New
Hampshire, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Nudge some
battleground/historically
GOP states to
Democrats due to
minority populations in
Arizona, Colorado,
Georgia, Nevada
Bolster GOP efforts to
keep the Senate,
ratcheting up advertising
in competitive Senate
races

7. Summer/Fall 2016 Outlook

8. By the week of November 30, 2015 Political’s
share of ad time is approaching 10%
November 30, 2015
Case study: Ramp-up to Iowa and New Hampshire
Political share of ad time averages 6% during summer
months in IOWA broadcast markets

9. And starts growing rapidly the start of the new year
January 4, 2016: nearly 20%

10. January 11, 2016: 17% to 25%

11. January 18, 2016: 25% to 37%

12. January 25, 2016
With political shares reaching 53% in CEDAR RAPIDS
the week before the Iowa caucuses

13. Across these IOWA markets, Political’s share of total ad
time was 45% leading up to the caucuses
A 38 percentage-point
increase in just 8 weeks

14. September 14, 2015
By mid-September 2015, political share of total ad time in
MANCHESTER, NH is already at 20%

15. November 30, 2015
And by the end of November, political share of total ad
time in MANCHESTER, NH is approaching 30%

16. January 4, 2016
With political activity on Boston, MA
stations growing at a slower pace
Going into the new year, political share of total ad time
continues to grow in MANCHESTER, NH

17. February 1, 2016
Political share of total ad time in MANCHESTER, NH
reaches 56% in the week leading up to the state primary

18. Boston broadcast stations follow a
similar pattern, though activity is lower
Political’s share of total ad time on WMUR, Boston
stations peaks at 56% and 15%

19. Promos &
PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
IOWA: As political’s share increases, key non-political
categories see share plunge

20. Promos &
PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
NEW HAMPSHIRE: As political’s share increases, key
non-political categories see share plunge

21. Messaging Muddle
Top messages in advertising, by spend:
Presidential:
1. Foreign policy/terrorism
2. Healthcare
3. Social issues (women's issues,
abortion, civil rights, gay marriage,
drugs)
4. Taxes (corporate loopholes)
US Senate:
1. Energy/environment
2. Jobs/unemployment
3. Budget/government spending
4. Environment: Global warming

22. Harsh Climate for Companies
“Wall Street, drug companies,
insurance companies, big oil
companies”
“I’ll never eat Oreos again”

23. Brand Bashing
Unprecedented attacks on individual brands for being on the wrong side of
regular people:
• Goldman Sachs
• Johnson Controls (getting help from
auto bailout, then offshoring)
• McDermott (offshoring)
• Medtronic (offshoring)
• Tyco (offshoring)
• Valeant (predatory pricing)
• Weatherford (offshoring)

24. A Busy Political Calendar Ahead
24 states w/primaries or caucuses during Q2
November elections
• President
• 33 US Senate seats
• 435 US House seats
• 12 state governors
• Down ballot races
Supreme Court Justice nomination

25. A Busy Political Calendar Ahead
24 states w/primaries or caucuses during Q2
November elections
• President
• 33 US Senate seats
• 435 US House seats
• 12 state governors
• Down ballot races
Supreme Court Justice nomination
House Senate Governor
Toss Up 22 5 4
Leaning 18 4 --
Ratings As of 3/18/16
Source: The cook Political Report

26. The Effect of Political Ad Volume On
Other Categories & Advertisers

27. A Disruptive Force
Political advertising disrupts spot TV
marketplaces
Finite inventory – a zero sum game
Impact on other ad categories? Who
gets displaced? Timing?
Adaptive strategies

28. Spot TV Markets Analyzed

29. WK M T W TH F SA SU WK M T W TH F SA SU
26 25 26 27 28 29 30 1
J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J 27 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
A 2 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 U 28 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
N 3 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 L 29 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
4 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
F 5 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 A 31 30 31 1 2 3 4 5
E 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 U 32 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
B 7 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 G 33 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
8 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 34 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
M 9 27 28 29 1 2 3 4 35 27 28 29 30 31 1 2
A 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 S 36 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
R 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 E 37 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
12 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 P 38 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
13 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 39 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
A 14 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 O 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P 15 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 C 41 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
R 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 T 42 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
17 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 43 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
M 18 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 N 44 29 30 31 1 2 3 4
A 19 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 O
Y 20 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 V
21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
J 22 28 29 30 31 1 2 3
U 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N 24 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
25 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2012 2012
WK M T W TH F SA SU WK M T W TH F SA SU
J 1 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 J 27 30 1 2 3 4 5 6
A 2 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 U 28 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
N 3 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 L 29 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
4 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 30 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
F 5 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 A 31 28 29 30 31 1 2 3
E 6 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 U 32 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
B 7 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 G 33 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 34 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
9 24 25 26 27 28 1 2 35 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
M 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 S 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A 11 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 E 37 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
R 12 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 P 38 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
13 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 39 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
A 14 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 O 40 29 30 1 2 3 4 5
P 15 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 C 41 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
R 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 T 42 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
17 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 43 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
M 18 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 N 44 27 28 29 30 31 1 2
A 19 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 O
Y 20 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 V
21 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
22 26 27 28 29 30 31 1
J 23 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
U 24 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
N 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
26 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
2014 2014

30. 20%
10%
6%
8%
23%
21%
19%
15%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Wash DC
Raleigh
Philadelphia
Miami
Las Vegas
Gr Rapids
Denver
Cincinnatti
Political Share Of Ad Time: 2012
Wks 1-30 Wks 31-44
5%
10%
5%
7%
8%
23%
21%
9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Wash DC
Raleigh
Philadelphia
Miami
Las Vegas
Gr Rapids
Denver
Cincinnatti
Political Share Of Ad Time: 2014
Wks 1-30 Wks 31-44
Note: Weeks 31-44 cover the period from August 1 to Election Day

31. Major Spot TV Ad Categories
Politics Auto Retail Telecom
Medical Services Restaurants All Other Paid Promos/PSAs

32. Category Share of Market Ad Time
Politics
Share
Pol-
itics
Auto Retail Tele-
com
Medical
Svcs
Restaur-
ants
All Other
Paid Ads
Promo
/PSAs
Total
< 2% 0.5% 13.0% 10.4% 8.3% 4.4% 3.8% 39.7% 20.0% 100.0%
2-5% 4.2% 11.7% 9.7% 8.8% 3.8% 4.4% 38.1% 19.3% 100.0%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
>25%
Analytic Method – Category Share of Spot TV Ad Time
How To Read: In weeks when political share of total market ad time
is less than 2%, auto category share of ad time averages 13.0%

33. Promos &
PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
Political
% Share Ratio of TV Ad Time: Political vs Other Categories
2012 & 2014, Weeks 1-44, All 8 Markets Combined

35. Category Share Ratio of Market Ad Time
Politics
Share
Auto Retail Tele-
com
Medical
Svcs
Restaur-
ants
All Other
Paid Ads
Promo/
PSAs
< 2% 13.0% 10.4% 8.3% 4.4% 3.8% 39.7% 20.0%
Ratio 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
2-5% .90 .93 1.06 .86 1.16 .96 .98
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
>25%
Category Share Ratio Reveals The Rate of Erosion
How To Read: In weeks when political share of total
market ad time is between 2% and 5%, auto category
share of ad time falls to 90% of its baseline norm

36. Promos & PSAs
Medical Svcs.
& Supplies
Automotive
All other paid ads
Telecom
Retail
Share Ratio of TV Ad Time: Political vs Other Categories
2012 & 2014, Weeks 1-44, All 8 Markets Combined

37. Fewer Auto Ads….But Steady # of Auto Advertisers
Market: Las Vegas
Period: 4th week of each
month in 2014
Insights:
• Auto advertising is
cyclical and peaks at
end of each month
• As auto category
share begins to
decline, the # of auto
advertisers holds
steady
• Auto advertisers are
staying on air, but
buying less time
0
15
30
45
60
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3/24 4/21 5/26 6/23 7/21 8/25 9/22 10/20 10/27
#ofAutoAdvertisers
%ShareofAdTime
Political Share
Auto Share
# of Auto Advertisers

38. Telecom – Similar Pattern
Market: Denver
Period: 2014
Category: Telecom
July 28 – Labor Day
• Category share = 7%
• 21-23 advertisers/wk
• Avg advertiser runs
72 :30s per week
Sept 22 - Election Day
• Category share = 3%
• 16-20 advertisers/wk
• Avg advertiser runs
37 :30s per week
0
5
10
15
20
25
0%
8%
16%
24%
32%
40%
#ofTelecomAdvertisers
%ShareofAdTime
Political
Share
Telecom
Share
# of Telecom
Advertisers

39. Programming Preferences

40. Auto & Political Compete For Local News Avails
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
% Of Category Ad Time in Local News: 2014
POLITICAL
AUTO
• Cincinnati
• Denver
• Grand Rapids
• Las Vegas
• Miami
• Philadelphia
• Raleigh
• Washington, DC

41. The preference for news programming leads political
advertisers to network affiliate stations
Market
Total # of
Stations
Monitored
% of All Ad
Time on
A/C/F/N
% of Political
Ad Time on
A/C/F/N
Cincinnati 6 66% 93%
Denver 10 49% 73%
Grand Rapids 6 98% 100%
Las Vegas 8 58% 92%
Miami 13 41% 63%
Philadelphia 7 58% 90%
Raleigh 7 60% 90%
Washington DC 9 52% 92%
• Period: Jan-Oct ‘14
• Spanish-language
news programming
is also targeted by
political advertisers

42. ADPATIVE STRATEGIES
• Displaced TV
advertisers can be a
sales opportunity for
other media
• Some TV advertisers
shift weight to other
media, some don’t
0
25
50
75
100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
#:30PerWk
PoliticalTVShare
Political TV Share # Spot TV :30s # Radio :30s
Papa John’s Pizza – Denver – Sept/Oct 2014
When TV weight is reduced, Local Radio support is increased

43. ADPATIVE STRATEGIES
• Displaced TV
advertisers can be a
sales opportunity for
other media
• Some TV advertisers
shift weight to other
media, some don’t
Marshall’s– Las Vegas – Sept/Oct 2014
Marshall’s had no measured activity in Las Vegas in
either Radio, Newspaper or Digital during Sept/Oct 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
#:30PerWk
PolitTVShare
Political TV Share # Spot TV :30s

44. Source of Business Analysis
The analytic approach that we’ve used can:
• Be applied to individual markets
and stations
• Compare periods of heavy vs.
light political activity
• Identify ‘at risk’ categories and
advertisers
• For non-TV media, assess
opportunities to gain business
from TV advertisers during peak
political periods

45. Questions?
Jon Swallen, Chief Research Officer
Jon.Swallen@Kantarmedia.com
212.991.6110
Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Vice President for
Political Advertising
Elizabeth.Wilner@Kantar.com
202.238.3730