Scenario of gujarat politics before 2014 general elections of India. PS: Personal views only.

1. GUJARAT- 2014 General Elections
No. of seats: 26 (4 SC & 2 ST category reserved seats + 20 Non reserved general seats)
Election Date: 30th
April, 2014 (Phase-7)
For breakage of constituencies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Constituencies_of_the_Lok_Sabha#Gujarat.2826.29
Parties:
Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP),
Indian National Congress (INC),
Aam Adami Party (AAP),
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP)
Clash of the Titans: BJP v/s AAP, BJP v/s INC (Moderate level)
Stats from 2009 Elections:
Party Name No of seats won Constituencies in Hand
BJP 15
Kachchh, Mahesana,
Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar,
Ahmedabad East, Ahmedabad
West, Porbandar, Junagadh,
Amreli, Bhavnagar, Panchmahal,
Vadodara, Chhota Udaipur,
Bharuch, Surat, Navsari
INC 11
Banaskantha, Patan,
Surendranagar, Rajkot,
Jamnagar, Anand, Kheda,
Dahod, Bardoli, Valsad
No regional / other parties were successful in getting even a one seat in 2009 election.
Points in Favor for NaMo :
• Homeground- ‘NaMoism’ effect is probably at its peak in Gujarat.
• Congress party has been almost wiped off from the state after 2012 assembly election.
• Many congress leaders are joining BJP, which might result into 20+ seats for BJP this time.
• Congress will be going to elect with almost same candidate list.
• AAP- still a new party; lack of experience in terms of Gujarat Politics.

2. Points that might affect BJP:
• Entry of AAP in almost all seats may create problem in gaining clear majority.
• Congress and AAP may snatch away few important seats from BJP.
Expected Winner: BJP with 20+ seats.
Surprise Element: AAP
Star Factor: Narendra Modi (PM Candidate of NDA) contesting from his home-ground.