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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic

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‫ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫‪Partners In Development‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﻻﻣﲔ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﳊﻖ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻴﺖ ﻛﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺑﺮﺗﻮ ﺑﻴﺘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺎﻧﻜﺎ ﺩﻳﺒﻨﺎﺙ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺩﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺩ ﺳﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﺀ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﺏ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻫﻲ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﻟﻔﲔ ﻭﻻ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱴ ﻛﺘﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻜﺘﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺼﻔﺘﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﻻ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺃ‬
‫ﺷﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳔﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﺃﺧﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺯﻳﻦ. ﻭﻳﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﲞﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﻟﻜﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ، ﻭﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﻠﺒﻴﺴﻲ، ﻭﻣﺎﺟﺪﺓ ﺇﻣﺎﻡ ﺣﺴﻨﲔ، ﻭﺑﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ، ﻭﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺵ، ﻭﻛﻮﺳﻴﺖ ﻣﺎﻳﻜﻲ ﻭﺃﻣﺎﱐ ﻣﺴﻌﻮﺩ، ﻭﻫﺒﺔ ﻧﺼﺎﺭ، ﻭﺑﻮﻝ ﻃﺒﺎﺭ، ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻮﺍ ﺑﺜﺮﺍﺋﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﰲ ﻭﺧﱪﺍﻬﺗﻢ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ.‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺜﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺪﳝﻬﻢ ﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﻥ ﻭﺩﻋﻤﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﲞﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻮﺹ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ: ﻭﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﻜﺎﺭﺩﻭ ﻛﻮﺭﺩﻳﺮﻭ، ﻭﺑﺮﺍﺩﱄ ﺩﺍﻳﻔﻴﺪ، ﻭﻓﻮﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﻮﺩ، ﻭﻓﻴﺪﻭﺭﺍ ﺟﺴﺒﺎﺭﰐ، ﻭﻟﻮﻱ ﺟﺮﳚﻮﺭﻱ ﻭﺟﲑﺗﺮﻭﻱ ﻻﻧﻮ، ﻭﻟﻮﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻻﳒﺎﺭﻭﰐ، ﻭﺭﻭﺩﺍﻥ ﺳﻌﺪﻱ، ﻭﺇﻟﻴﺰﺍﺑﻴﺚ ﻭﺍﺭﻥ، ﻭﻻﺭﺍ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻀﺎﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻀﺮﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻊ ﺇﺣﺘﺮﺍﻡ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ. ﻭ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺭﻛﻮﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ/ ﺃﲪﺪ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻟﻘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﺮﻳﻒ ﻭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺍﻷﻣﲔ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﻭ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺎﺭ.‬ ‫ﺏ‬
‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ........................................................................................................ 3‬ ‫ﺷﻜﺮ................................................................................................................ 4‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ .................................................................................................... 5‬ ‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ................................................................................................................ 6‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻱ ................................................................................................... 7‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 1: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎ ................................................. 21‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 2: ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ......................................................................... 63‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 3: ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺑﻮﺻﻔﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻻﺣﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ....................................... 15‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 4: ﻗﻀﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﺒﻠﺪ ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﻭﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ .................................................. 17‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 5: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ....................................................................... 68‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 6: ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻭﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ .................... 801‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﲤﺔ ...........................................................................................................521‬ ‫ﺝ‬
‫ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ1 : ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ........................................................................................ 31‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ2 : ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ""‪57 ......... 1975-2000 ،GCC‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ3 : ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ ،"GCC‬ﻋﺎﻡ 5002 ....................... 85‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ4 : ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﲔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ "GCC‬ﲟﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ "GCC‬ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻃﻠﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ. ................................................... 66‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ5 : ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﺳﻞ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪67 ................................................................................................................ "GCC‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ6 : ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪74 ........................................... "GCC‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ7 : ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﻬﲏ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ 1002. .... 57‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ8 : ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﲣﺬﻬﺗﺎ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻸﺯﻣﺔ .................................... 101‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ9 : ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ )%( ..................................... 301‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ01 : ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ .................................................... 401‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ11 : ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﻼﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ................................................................................................. 801‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ21 : ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ – ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ .................................. 111‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ31 : ﺗﻮﺍﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻹﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ....................... 921‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ41 : ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ........................................................... 731‬ ‫1‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺺ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ1 : ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ- ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﻣﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ..................................02‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ2 : ﺍﻟﱰﻭﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﺮﻱ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ....................................................................................12‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ3 : ﺇﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﳌﻮﺭﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ .......................................................................42‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ4 : ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﺭﺳﺎﻝ ﲢﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ 002ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ ...........................................62‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ5 : ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ................................................................82‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ6 : ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﻧﺲ ...........................................44‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ7 : ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺩﻧﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﲔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ – ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ...........................94‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ8 : ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻴﺴﲑ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻳﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ:.........................................96‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ9 : ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺘﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎﻝ ..............................................................................38‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ01 : ﺧﱪﺓ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ – ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ .......................................511‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ11 : ﲡﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﰱ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ .......................................................................131‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ21 : ﺍﺷﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺘﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ، ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﱏ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ 331‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ31 : ﺣﻮﺍﺭ ﺃﺑﻮ ﻇﱯ ﻭﺃﻧﺸﻄﺘﻪ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻪ ........................................................................531‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ41 : ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ: ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﳌﻮﺣﺪ ﳋﺎﺩﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺯﻝ ................................................................831‬ ‫2‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ1 : ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ )0102 – 8002( .................................. 01‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ2 : ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ 8002-0102 ..................................... 11‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ3 : ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ 8002 - 0102 ................................................. 51‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ4 : ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﲔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ....................................................................... 61‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ5 : ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰱ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، 6002 .................................... 81‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ6 : ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ 6002 .............................................................. 22‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ7 : ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ، 6002 ............................................................. 32‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ8 : ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﰱ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻕ ........................... 72‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ9 : ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﰱ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻕ ........................................... 92‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ01 : ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ )51-42 ﻋﺎﻡ( ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ............. 83‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ11 : ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﰱ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ..................................................... 14‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ21 : ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺑﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ............................................... 24‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ31 : ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ. .................................................... 34‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ41 : ﺍﳉﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻻ ﻳﺼﺎﺣﺒﻬﻢ ﻣﺮﺍﻓﻘﻮﻥ، ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻭﺻﻠﻮﺍﺇﱃ ﺇﻳﻄﺎﻟﻴﺎ .......................... 54‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ51 : ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﺪ.................................................................. 64‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ61: ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺪﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻱ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ. ................................ 74‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ71 : ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ .............................................................. 84‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ81 : ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ "GCC‬ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ )ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ( ............................................................................................................................. 95‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ91 : ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ............................................................................ 18‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ02 : : ﺗﺼﺎﺭﻳﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ 7002 ....................................................................... 98‬ ‫3‬
‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻭﻫﻲ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ.‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺕ ﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻇﻠﺖ ﻏﺎﺋﺒﺔ ﲤﺎﻣًﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ. ﻭﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﰲ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﺑﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺴﻬﻤﻮﺍ ﰲ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ، ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﺃﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﻲ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﳑﻦ ﳍﻢ ﺧﱪﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ. ﻭﻳﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ، ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ، ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ. ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﻴﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﴰﻞ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﲢﻠﻞ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﺍﺟﻬﻬﺎ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﱐ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ،‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ.‬ ‫ﺃﲪﺪ ﻡ. ﻟﻘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﳊﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫4‬
‫ﺍﳌﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺮﺍﺙ ﻭﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻗﺪﳝﲔ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﱂ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺰﻳﺮﺓ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ. ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺕ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ – ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﺪﺃﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ – ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺗﺪﺭﳚﻴًﺎ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﻱ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻘﺪ ﻭﻣﻠﺊ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ، ﺗﻀﺂﻟﺖ ﺣﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺞ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺛﻮﻕ ﻬﺑﺎ، ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩﻫﻢ ﺑـ 4.2 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻳﻌﻴﺸﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻣﻨﻬﻢ 5.1 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻳﻌﻴﺸﻴﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ.‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲪﺎﺳﻪ، ﻓﻼ‬ ‫ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﻼﻳﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻘﻠﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻭﻋﺎﺋﻼﻬﺗﻢ. ﻭﻧﻈﺮًﺍ ﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺳﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻠﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﻫﻼﺕ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ، ﻓﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ – ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺮﻛﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻴﻜﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ – ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻏﺘﻨﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﻹﺩﻣﺎﺝ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﰲ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻗﺪ ُﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ )ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ، ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺑﻄﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ( ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﻗﺪﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﻛﻴﺰﺓ ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻧﺎ ﺟﺰﺀًﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺎﺷﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ، ﻭﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﳕﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ، ﱂ ﺗﺰﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﻭﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺇﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫5‬
‫ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺘﺪﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﺧﺎﺭﺟﻬﺎ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺳﺠﻠﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺿًﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﺪ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻬﻧﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺑﻼﺩ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﺪ ﺇﱃ ﻋﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻼﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ ﻣﺮﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌًﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ. ﻟﻜﻦ ﺳﻴﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪﻭﻥ ﻇﺮﻭﻓﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺻﻌﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻭﻃﺎﻬﻧﻢ.‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ، ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﰲ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺄﻟﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﻛﺘﺒﻬﺎ ﳔﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﻐﻄﻲ‬ ‫ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻭﺟﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ. ﻭﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ: ﻳﻠﻘﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻓﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ، ﻫﻮ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻮﺍﻛﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺟﺪ ﻋﱪ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ. ﳑﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﻬﻢ ﰲ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻟﻸﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﳍﺎ. ﰒ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻭﻥ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻘﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﳓﻮ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﻬﺑﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ. ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﰲ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ، ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺸﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 33 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺪﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ. ﻭﲣﻠﺺ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ. ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻭﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴًﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺜﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﺃﺟﻼ.‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ: ﻳﺪﺭﺱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﰲ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ، ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ. ﻭﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ، ﻭﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﳑﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﱂ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺟﻪ ﺣﱴ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫6‬
‫ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﳍﺠﺮﺓ، ﳑﺎ ُﻌﺮﺽ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﻳﻔﺘﻘﺮﻭﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺠﺮﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻴﺎﺭًﺍ ﱂ ُﺴﺘﻐﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻻ ﺟﻴﺪًﺍ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﺰﺯ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ، ﻭﳛﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ. ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺮﺍﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ: ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻛﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻳﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ. ﻭﻳﺄﰐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺑﻨﻈﺮﺍﺋﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻠﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﲏ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﳕﻮﺫﺟًﺎ ﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻠﲔ، ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺯﻣﲏ ﻗﺼﲑ ﻧﺴﺒﻴًﺎ. ﻭﺗﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻔﻮﻇﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ﺃﺭﺳﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻬﻧﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﲝﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ. ﻭﻛﺜﲑًﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺳﻊ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﹰﺎ. ﻭﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺒﺼﺮ ﰲ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ،‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﰲ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﻧﺴﺎﻥ، ﻭﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ-ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ: ﻭﺿﻊ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﻭﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻳﺪﺭﺱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺑﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻛﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﻭﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﻼﻟﻴﺔ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻣﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻀﻔﻲ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﺜﺎﻻ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﲢﻔﻈﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻔﺘﺢ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ، ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻭﺗﺸﺠﻴﻌﻬﺎ. ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻔﻈﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﰎ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ )ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ُﻤﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻼﺟﺌﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﲔ ﻭﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺘﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ( ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﰲ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ )ﺿﻤﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ( ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ: ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﲏ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺑﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺷﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﻧﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﲝﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻱ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺭﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻔﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ. ﻭﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻓﻘﺪ ُﺟﺪ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫7‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﻭﺑﲔ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺪﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻭﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ. ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻔﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ، ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺇﺿﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳉﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺄﺻﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﺎﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ: ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻳﺴﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻃﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ، ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻣﺘﺜﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ. ﰒ ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﱐ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪ ﳏﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ،‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺿﻌﻒ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ – ﰱ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻯ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ، ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺳﺘﻈﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺻﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺐ. ﻭﺳﻴﻈﻞ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﱪﻯ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ، ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ، ﻭﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﲟﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ ﺃﺑﻮ ﻇﱯ. ﻭﳚﺐ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﻭﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻴﺎﻕ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ. ﻭﲣﺘﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﻮ ﻇﱯ ﻭﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻠﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳛﺎﺭﺏ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺃﻃﺮ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳًﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺗﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻳﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻲ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪﺓ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﻭﺃﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲡﺮﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻹﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﳌﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﰲ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﻋﺎﳌﻴًﺎ، ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺮﺟﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺳﻴﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ. ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﰲ ﻧﻈﺮﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰎ ﺑﺬﻝ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻹﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ. ﻭﻧﻈﺮًﺍ ﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﲨﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﺳﻴﺠﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺉ ﺷﺊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﺿﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ.‬ ‫8‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 1‬ ‫ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫1‬ ‫ﻫﺒﺔ ﻧﺼﺎﺭ‬ ‫1-1 ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ:‬ ‫ﲟﺮﻭﺭ ﻗﺮﻭﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﺪ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺩﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ، ﻭﻟﻐﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ، ﻭﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ، ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ، ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳًﺎ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ﻋﻘﺪﺕ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002 ﻗﺪ ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻬﺗﻴﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﲏ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻻﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ،‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﺑﺮﺯ ﻣﻈﺎﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺯﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﱴ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﹰﺎ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﲔ‬ ‫ﻳﺪﺭﺳﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﺋﺪ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ، ﻣﻊ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻔﻂ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﰱ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼ ّﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﳉﺪﻝ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻯ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﱂ ﻳﻮﺟﻪ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ.‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻟﻔﻬﻢ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﺳﺘﻜﺸﺎﻑ ﻛﻴﻒ ﺳﺎﳘﺖ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﺮﺍﻛﻢ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻛﻪ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ. ﻭﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺑﺪﺍﺀ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ.‬ ‫1‬ ‫وآﻴﻠﻪ آﻠﻴﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد واﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺌﻮن اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ- ﺝﺎﻡﻌﺔ اﻟﻘﺎهﺮة. وﺕﻘ ﱢر اﻟﻜﺎﺕﺒﺔ اﻟﺠﻬﻮد اﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻡﺔ ﻡﻦ اﻟﺴﻴﺪة/‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫راﻧﻴﺎ اﻟﺴﺒﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻰ هﺬا اﻟﻌﻤﻞ. اﻟﺒﺮیﺪ اﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﻲ: ‪hebanas@aucegypt.edu‬‬ ‫9‬
‫2-1 ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ:‬ ‫ﻳﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲎ. ﻭﰱ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 0002 ﺣﱴ 8002، ﺷﻬﺪﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﻗﻮﻳًﺎ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ 9.1 ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ 8002‬ ‫)ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 9002 ﺃ(. ﻭﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002، ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﳕﻮ ﰱ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻠﻎ 7.5%. ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ 5%، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻭﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻇﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﰱ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ: ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ، ﻭﺍﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺑﺎﺕ ﰱ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻘﺐ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﺩ ﰱ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﻤﻮﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ، ﻭﺃﺧﲑًﺍ، ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩ ﰱ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺛﺮﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺑﻠﺖ ﺑﻼﺀ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﺣﺴﻨًﺎ ﰱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻌﻘﻮﻝ، ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 8002(. ﻭﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ 6.1 ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002،‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﰱ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻹﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﺩ ﰱ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ، ﻭﻋﻮﺍﻗﺐ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ. )ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ،‬ ‫9002 ﺏ(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 1: ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ )0102 – 8002(‬ ‫%0.02‬ ‫8002‬ ‫%0.51‬ ‫%0.01‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫9002‬ ‫%0.5‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫%0.0‬ ‫0102‬ ‫%0.5‐‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎن‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬ ‫اﻹﻡﺎرات اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 9002 ﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺘﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﺑﻄﻴﺌﹰﺎ –ﺇﻥ ﱂ ﻳﻜﻦ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﺳﻠﺒﻴًﺎ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002 ﻭ0102، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ 3% ﻭ 4.61% ﻋﺎﻡ 8002. ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﺳﺎﺳًﺎ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ.‬ ‫01‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 2: ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ 8002-0102‬ ‫%0.9‬ ‫%0.8‬ ‫%0.7‬ ‫8002‬ ‫%0.6‬ ‫%0.5‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫%0.4‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫9002‬ ‫%0.3‬ ‫%0.2‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫%0.1‬ ‫0102‬ ‫%0.0‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻤﻦ‬ ‫اﻷردن‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎن‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻐﺮب‬ ‫ﺱﻮرﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻥﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ- 9002 ﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﻛﺒﲑًﺍ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 8002، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻦ 9.3% ﺇﱃ 5.8%. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ )9002( ﺗﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﺑﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺊ ﰱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻔﻂ. ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ، ﻭﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺧﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫8002، ﳑﺎ ﺃﺿﺮ ﺑﺄﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ.‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻌﺐ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﺩﻭﺭًﺍ ﻛﺒﲑًﺍ ﰱ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻬﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ُﻤﺴ ّ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ )8.93%(، ﺗﻌﻘﺒﻪ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )4.73%(، ﰒ‬ ‫ﺧ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )01%(، ﰒ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ )6%(. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 008 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002، ﻣﻨﻬﺎ 026 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻪ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 8.31% ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002 ﻟﺘﺒﻠﻎ 254 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ 643 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﻜﻠﺖ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫87% ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ. )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 8002(.‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺳﺠﻠﺖ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ 54 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002، ﺑﺎﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺠﻞ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 6002 ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻯ ﺑﻠﻎ 25 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ. ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ 0002‬ ‫ﻭﺣﱴ 4002، ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌًﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻋﺘﺪﺍﻻﹰ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫11‬
‫5002، ﺟﺬﺑﺖ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ، ﻭﻣﺼﺮ، ﻭﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻣﺘﻤﺘﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﳏﺘﻠﺔ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻣﺰﺩﻫﺮﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ، ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ01% ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﳐﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﻳﺒﺪﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻬًﺎ ﺑﻘﻮﺓ ﳓﻮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺮﺍﻥ: ﺍﻷﻭﻝ: ﺃﻥ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺕ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﺷﻴﺎﺀ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ )ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﻜﺎﻥ(، ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ: ﺃﻥ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰱ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰱ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﻔﺔ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 8002(.‬ ‫3-1 ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ:‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻒ ﰱ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ.‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﺽ: ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﺗﺆﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰱ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﰱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ. ﻭﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﺳﻜﺎﱐ ﻭﳕﻮ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ 26% ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 5102، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﺘﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻟﲔ ﻟﺘﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ 53% ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺳﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑـ "ﻫﺒﺔ ﺩﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ" ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 5.2%، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﻟﺔ، ﳑﺎ ﺳﻴﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ‬ ‫2,2% ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ، 3002(.‬ ‫ﻭﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 6002، ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ 221 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ. ﲟﺎ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ 83% ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ 5002 ﺍﻟﱴ ﻭﺻﻠﺖ ﺇﱃ 53%، ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫2.3% ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﺑﲔ 5991-6002. ﻭﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰱ ﺣﺠﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 5991-6002. ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱴ ﺗﻘﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﺑـ 8.66% ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ 8.62. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﺎ ﺯﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀًﺎ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻗﻮﺭﻥ ﲟﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰱ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﻛﱪ ﻟﻠﺼﻐﺎﺭ، ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺃﺓ. ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﺮﻛﺰﻭﻥ ﰱ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ )ﻣﺼﺮ، ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ، ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ، ﻭﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ(. ﻭﲤﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻊ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 07 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ )ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، 9002(‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲢﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻋﻮﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﳋﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ، ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ 2.41% ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫0002 ﺇﱃ 3.01% ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 8002، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺑﻘﻴﺖ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ )ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ، 9002(. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﻠﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻤﻮﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫21‬
‫ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺃﻋﻮﺍﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ، ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﺮﻋﺐ ﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ 1: ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )%(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )%( ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫6002-5991‬ ‫6002-5991‬ ‫6002‬ ‫5991‬ ‫2.3‬ ‫4.83‬ ‫53‬ ‫ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫3.3‬ ‫8.73‬ ‫3.03‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬ ‫9.2‬ ‫2.94‬ ‫5.54‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫2.2‬ ‫6.44‬ ‫1.94‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺒﻮﺗﻰ‬ ‫7.2‬ ‫8.04‬ ‫9.73‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬ ‫4.3‬ ‫8.62‬ ‫62‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‬ ‫1.6‬ ‫3.14‬ ‫1.82‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬ ‫7.5‬ ‫5.16‬ ‫9.55‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫2.3‬ ‫1.83‬ ‫2.03‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫9.92‬ ‫4.13‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫2.4‬ ‫6.35‬ ‫5.54‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬ ‫5.2‬ ‫1.34‬ ‫4.93‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫1.44‬ ‫2.63‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫9.14‬ ‫3.95‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫73‬ ‫9.43‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫9.3‬ ‫9.74‬ ‫9.43‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎﻝ‬ ‫6.2‬ ‫3.93‬ ‫7.93‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫3.4‬ ‫2.73‬ ‫8.03‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬ ‫7.2‬ ‫7.92‬ ‫1.52‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻧﺲ‬ ‫7‬ ‫8.66‬ ‫6.55‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‬ ‫8.3‬ ‫6.03‬ ‫9.92‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، 9002‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﺕ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﺇﱃ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ، ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻠﺘﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫31‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳋﺼﺨﺼﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻧﻈﺮًﺍ ﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻻﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﺠﻬﺎ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻹﳚﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﺿﻌﻒ ﳑﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌًﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺄﻥ.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻭﰱ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ، ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﻣﺼﺪﺭًﺍ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴًﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ. ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﳚﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻭﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺗﻪ. ﻭﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﲝﻮﺍﱄ 4.64%‬ ‫ﰱ ﻣﺼﺮ، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ 8.73% ﰱ ﺗﻮﻧﺲ )ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ- ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، 6002، ﺗﺄﻟﻴﻒ: 2002، ‪ .(Esim and Kuttab‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻗ ّﺭﺕ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﳍﻢ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﲝﻮﺍﱃ 07% ﰱ ﻣﺼﺮ، ﻭﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 53% ﻭ54% ﰱ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ، ﻭﲟﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 73% ﰱ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ، ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 33% ﰱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ - ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ، 6002(.‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺳﺘﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺑﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ، ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﺿﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻛﱪ، ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ، ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺃﺓ، ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ. ﻭﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ‬ ‫ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ )9002(، ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ 4.9% ﻭ‬ ‫3.01% ﺇﱃ 11% ﻭ2.11% ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 41 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻭ61 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻃﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﹶﺪ ﻣﻌﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﺎﱐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﺺ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ.‬ ‫41‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 3: ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ 8002 - 0102‬ ‫61‬ ‫41‬ ‫21‬ ‫01‬ ‫ﻣﻦ اﻷﻓﺮاد‬ ‫8‬ ‫6‬ ‫4‬ ‫2‬ ‫‐‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺸﺮق‬ ‫ﺵﻤﺎل أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫اﻹﺝﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫8002‬ ‫9002‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ، 9002‬ ‫4-1 ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ:‬ ‫ﺻّﻔﺖ ﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻨﻤﻄﻰ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻴﺰﻳﻦ: ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻭﻫﻰ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ. ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻳﺴﺘﻀﻴﻒ ﻋﺪﺩًﺍ ﻛﺒﲑًﺍ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﺮﻳﲔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﹶﺪ ﻣﻌﻬﻢ.‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺋﻤًﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻮﺻﻒ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﹰﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﰊ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺃﻯ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﻦ ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﳊﻖ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻴًﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﰊ. ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﳐﻄﻄﺔ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫)6002 ، .‪ .(Nassar, H‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺎ ﻳﻌﺘﱪﺍﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ.‬ ‫51‬
‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 4: ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﲔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻵﻻف‬ ‫000,7‬ ‫000,6‬ ‫أﻋﺪاد اﻟﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ واﻟﻼﺟﺌﻴﻦ‬ ‫000,5‬ ‫000,4‬ ‫000,3‬ ‫000,2‬ ‫000,1‬ ‫‐‬ ‫اﻹﻡﺎرات‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻮﻡﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻐﺮب‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻮدان‬ ‫اﻷردن‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎن‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎن‬ ‫ﺱﻮرﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﻡﺼﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻤﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫اﻷراﺿﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻠﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻬﺎﺝﺮون اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻮن‬ ‫اﻟﻼﺝﺌﻮن‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ- ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﰱ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ: ﻃﺒﻌﺔ ﻣﻨﻘﺤﺔ‬ ‫5002‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﻴﻨﺎﺕ، ﻭﺿﻊ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، ﺗﺰﺍﻣﻨًﺎ ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺰﺩﻫﺮﺓ. ﻭﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ، ﺻ ّﻕ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ )4691(. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﺷﺘﻤﻠﺖ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﺶ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﺷﺘﻤﻠﺖ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻖ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﲤﻠﻚ ﺃﻱ ﺷﺊ ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ، ﻭﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ 5991، ﺻﺪﻕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲡﺎﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺓ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺩﻋﻰ ﻣﺆﲤﺮ ﻭﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻋﻘﺪ ﰲ 5691 ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻊ ﻟﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ، ﻭﻹﻋﻄﺎﺋﻬﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺗﺎﱄ ﺁﺧﺮ ُﻘﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫52-7691/11/92، ﺻ ّﻕ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﺮﰊ ﻳﺸﺠﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﻳﻨﻈﻤﻬﺎ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﺸﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ –ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﻧﻔﺼﻠﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﲔ- ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ُﺮﻓﺖ‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﻢ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﲝﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ )ﺭﻗﻢ 2 ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 7691(. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻴﺴﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ(، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ 4(، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻭﺍﺓ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ 6(. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻛﺪﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻴﺴﲑ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﺳﻨﻮﻳًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ 3(. ﻭﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺳﺒﻊ ﺩﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﻗﺪ ﺻ ّﻗﻮﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ2، ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﺮﺯﺕ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻟﺔ.‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺼ ّﻗﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ 2: ﻤﺼﺭ ﻭﺴﻭﺭﻴﺎ )9691(، ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )0791(، ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ )2791(، ﻭﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫2‬ ‫)4791(،ﻭﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ )6791(، ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ )5991(‬ ‫61‬
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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic
Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic

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Alo iom report on intra-regional labour mobility arabic

  • 1. ‫ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫‪Partners In Development‬‬
  • 2. ‫ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﻻﻣﲔ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ‬ ‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺷﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﳊﻖ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻴﺖ ﻛﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺭﻭﺑﺮﺗﻮ ﺑﻴﺘﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻳﺎﻧﻜﺎ ﺩﻳﺒﻨﺎﺙ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﰲ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺩﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺍﺩ ﺳﻴﻜﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺭﺍﺀ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﺏ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻫﻲ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﺆﻟﻔﲔ ﻭﻻ ﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﱴ ﻛﺘﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻜﺘﻮﺑﺔ ﺑﺼﻔﺘﻬﻢ ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻴﺲ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻥ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻣﻮﺍﻗﻒ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ‬ ‫ﺃﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﻓﺮﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﻻ ﺍﻵﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﻋﻀﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺃ‬
  • 3. ‫ﺷﻜﺮ‬ ‫ﻭﺿﻊ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﳔﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﺃﺧﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺭﺯﻳﻦ. ﻭﻳﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ‬ ‫ﲞﺎﻟﺺ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﻟﻜﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﺑﻮ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ، ﻭﻋﺜﻤﺎﻥ ﺑﻠﺒﻴﺴﻲ، ﻭﻣﺎﺟﺪﺓ ﺇﻣﺎﻡ ﺣﺴﻨﲔ، ﻭﺑﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻦ ﺇﺑﺮﺍﻫﻴﻢ، ﻭﻋﺒﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺵ، ﻭﻛﻮﺳﻴﺖ ﻣﺎﻳﻜﻲ ﻭﺃﻣﺎﱐ ﻣﺴﻌﻮﺩ، ﻭﻫﺒﺔ ﻧﺼﺎﺭ، ﻭﺑﻮﻝ ﻃﺒﺎﺭ، ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺃﺳﻬﻤﻮﺍ ﺑﺜﺮﺍﺋﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﰲ ﻭﺧﱪﺍﻬﺗﻢ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ.‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻮﺩ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺮ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻌﺜﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻘﺪﳝﻬﻢ ﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﻥ ﻭﺩﻋﻤﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻭﲞﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻮﺹ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ: ﻭﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﺭﻳﻜﺎﺭﺩﻭ ﻛﻮﺭﺩﻳﺮﻭ، ﻭﺑﺮﺍﺩﱄ ﺩﺍﻳﻔﻴﺪ، ﻭﻓﻮﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﻮﺩ، ﻭﻓﻴﺪﻭﺭﺍ ﺟﺴﺒﺎﺭﰐ، ﻭﻟﻮﻱ ﺟﺮﳚﻮﺭﻱ ﻭﺟﲑﺗﺮﻭﻱ ﻻﻧﻮ، ﻭﻟﻮﺭﺍ‬ ‫ﻻﳒﺎﺭﻭﰐ، ﻭﺭﻭﺩﺍﻥ ﺳﻌﺪﻱ، ﻭﺇﻟﻴﺰﺍﺑﻴﺚ ﻭﺍﺭﻥ، ﻭﻻﺭﺍ ﻳﻮﻧﺎﻥ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﺮ ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻀﺎﻓﺘﻬﺎ ﻛﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻀﺮﻳﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻹﺳﻬﺎﻡ ﲢﺴﲔ ﺍﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻛﻴﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺑﲔ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺍﺟﻌﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻊ ﺇﺣﺘﺮﺍﻡ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﲑ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺮﺍﺡ. ﻭ ﰲ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﺭﻛﻮﺍ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺍﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺪ/ ﺃﲪﺪ ﳏﻤﺪ ﻟﻘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﺮﻳﻒ ﻭ ﳏﻤﺪ ﺍﻷﻣﲔ ﻓﺎﺭﺱ ﻭ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﻰ ﻋﺒﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﺘﺎﺭ.‬ ‫ﺏ‬
  • 4. ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺮﻳﺮ ........................................................................................................ 3‬ ‫ﺷﻜﺮ................................................................................................................ 4‬ ‫ﺟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﶈﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ .................................................................................................... 5‬ ‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ ................................................................................................................ 6‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻱ ................................................................................................... 7‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 1: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎ ................................................. 21‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 2: ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ......................................................................... 63‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 3: ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺑﻮﺻﻔﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﻻﺣﺘﻮﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ....................................... 15‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 4: ﻗﻀﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﺒﻠﺪ ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﻭﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ .................................................. 17‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 5: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ....................................................................... 68‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 6: ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻭﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ .................... 801‬ ‫ﺍﳋﺎﲤﺔ ...........................................................................................................521‬ ‫ﺝ‬
  • 5. ‫ﺍﳉﺪﺍﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ1 : ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ........................................................................................ 31‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ2 : ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺪﺓ ﰲ ﻗﻮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ""‪57 ......... 1975-2000 ،GCC‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ3 : ﺍﻟﺘﺠﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺪﺓ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ ،"GCC‬ﻋﺎﻡ 5002 ....................... 85‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ4 : ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﲔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ "GCC‬ﲟﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ "GCC‬ﻭﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻃﻠﲔ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ. ................................................... 66‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ5 : ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳋﻤﺲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﺳﻞ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪67 ................................................................................................................ "GCC‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ6 : ﺃﺛﺮ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪74 ........................................... "GCC‬‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ7 : ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺐ ﺍﳌﺌﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﳌﻬﲏ ﻭﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﳉﻨﺲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ 1002. .... 57‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ8 : ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻹﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﲣﺬﻬﺗﺎ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻸﺯﻣﺔ .................................... 101‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ9 : ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳊﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮ ﰲ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ )%( ..................................... 301‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ01 : ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﻣﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ .................................................... 401‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ11 : ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻋﻼﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻮﺻﻞ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻪ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﲔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ................................................................................................. 801‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ21 : ﻣﺼﻔﻮﻓﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ – ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ .................................. 111‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ31 : ﺗﻮﺍﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻹﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ....................... 921‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ41 : ﺍﳌﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ........................................................... 731‬ ‫1‬
  • 6. ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺺ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ1 : ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺑﺮﺓ- ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻄﻮﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻧﺪﻣﺎﺝ ﻣﻦ ﻭﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ..................................02‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ2 : ﺍﻟﱰﻭﺡ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﺮﻱ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ....................................................................................12‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ3 : ﺇﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﳌﻮﺭﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ .......................................................................42‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ4 : ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺇﺭﺳﺎﻝ ﲢﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺑﻘﻴﻤﺔ 002ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ ...........................................62‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ5 : ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻲ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ................................................................82‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ6 : ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺋﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺗﻮﻧﺲ ...........................................44‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ7 : ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺍﺩﻧﲔ ﺍﳌﺘﺨﺼﺼﲔ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﺔ – ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﳌﻮﺍﺟﻬﺔ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺍﺕ...........................94‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ8 : ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻴﺴﲑ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺮﻳﲔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ:.........................................96‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ9 : ﲡﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺘﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎﻝ ..............................................................................38‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ01 : ﺧﱪﺓ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ – ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ .......................................511‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ11 : ﲡﺮﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ ﰱ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ .......................................................................131‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ21 : ﺍﺷﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺘﻄﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﻴﺔ، ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﱏ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ 331‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ31 : ﺣﻮﺍﺭ ﺃﺑﻮ ﻇﱯ ﻭﺃﻧﺸﻄﺘﻪ ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﳋﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻪ ........................................................................531‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻧﺺ41 : ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ: ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﳌﻮﺣﺪ ﳋﺎﺩﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﺯﻝ ................................................................831‬ ‫2‬
  • 7. ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ1 : ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ )0102 – 8002( .................................. 01‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ2 : ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ 8002-0102 ..................................... 11‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ3 : ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ 8002 - 0102 ................................................. 51‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ4 : ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﲔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ....................................................................... 61‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ5 : ﻧﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰱ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، 6002 .................................... 81‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ6 : ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ 6002 .............................................................. 22‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ7 : ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ، 6002 ............................................................. 32‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ8 : ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﰱ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻕ ........................... 72‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ9 : ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﰱ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻕ ........................................... 92‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ01 : ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺑﲔ )51-42 ﻋﺎﻡ( ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻗﺎﻟﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ............. 83‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ11 : ﺍﻹﻧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﰱ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ..................................................... 14‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ21 : ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺑﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ............................................... 24‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ31 : ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ. .................................................... 34‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ41 : ﺍﳉﻨﺴﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺼﺮ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻻ ﻳﺼﺎﺣﺒﻬﻢ ﻣﺮﺍﻓﻘﻮﻥ، ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻭﺻﻠﻮﺍﺇﱃ ﺇﻳﻄﺎﻟﻴﺎ .......................... 54‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ51 : ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳋﺎﺭﺝ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﺪ.................................................................. 64‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ61: ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﻘﻴﺪﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻧﻮﻱ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ. ................................ 74‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ71 : ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ .............................................................. 84‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ81 : ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ "‪ "GCC‬ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﳌﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ )ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﺎﺣﺔ( ............................................................................................................................. 95‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ91 : ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ............................................................................ 18‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ02 : : ﺗﺼﺎﺭﻳﺢ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺠﻨﺴﻴﺔ 7002 ....................................................................... 98‬ ‫3‬
  • 8. ‫ﲤﻬﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻉ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ ﺑﲔ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻭﻫﻲ ﻬﺗﺪﻑ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ.‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﺪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺕ ﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻇﻠﺖ ﻏﺎﺋﺒﺔ ﲤﺎﻣًﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺪ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻲ. ﻭﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﰲ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﺑﺒﺪﺍﺋﻞ ﺟﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻟﺘﺤﺴﲔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﺣﱴ ﻳﺴﻬﻤﻮﺍ ﰲ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ، ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﳐﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﺃﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﻲ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﳑﻦ ﳍﻢ ﺧﱪﺓ ﻃﻮﻳﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻘﻴﺪﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻨﻄﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ. ﻭﻳﻐﻄﻲ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ، ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ، ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ‬ ‫ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ. ﺃﻣﺎ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻓﻴﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﴰﻞ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﲢﻠﻞ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻮﺍﺟﻬﻬﺎ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﳌﺪﱐ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ،‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻼﺀﻣﺔ ﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻧﺘﺸﺎﺭﻫﺎ.‬ ‫ﺃﲪﺪ ﻡ. ﻟﻘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﳏﻤﺪ ﺷﻬﻴﺪ ﺍﳊﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺪﻳﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﺜﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫4‬
  • 9. ‫ﺍﳌﻠﺨﺺ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳍﺎ ﺗﺮﺍﺙ ﻭﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻗﺪﳝﲔ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﱂ ﺗﻈﻬﺮ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﺰﻳﺮﺓ ﺇﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ. ﺍﺳﺘﻤﺮﺕ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻫﺬﻩ – ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺑﺪﺃﺕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻛﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ – ﺧﻼﻝ‬ ‫ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺇﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺗﺪﺭﳚﻴًﺎ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺎﺿﻴﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﻱ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﺑﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺧﻠﻖ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﻣﻌﻘﺪ ﻭﻣﻠﺊ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ، ﺗﻀﺂﻟﺖ ﺣﺮﺍﻛﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺞ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﰲ ﻇﻞ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻮﺛﻮﻕ ﻬﺑﺎ، ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩﻫﻢ ﺑـ 4.2 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﻏﲑ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻳﻌﻴﺸﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻣﻨﻬﻢ 5.1 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻳﻌﻴﺸﻴﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ.‬ ‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻓﻘﺪ ﺍﳊﻮﺍﺭ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﻭﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﻬﺗﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲪﺎﺳﻪ، ﻓﻼ‬ ‫ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ ﺑﻄﺮﻳﻘﺔ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻏﲑ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﺣﻴﺎﺓ ﺍﳌﻼﻳﲔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻘﻠﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﲔ ﺑﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻭﻋﺎﺋﻼﻬﺗﻢ. ﻭﻧﻈﺮًﺍ ﻻﺳﺘﻤﺮﺍﺭ ﺳﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻠﻔﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﺆﻫﻼﺕ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ، ﻓﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ – ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﲢﺮﻛﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﻴﻜﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪ ﺳﻮﺍﺀ – ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳚﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻏﺘﻨﺎﻣﻬﺎ ﻹﺩﻣﺎﺝ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﰲ ﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺮﺍﺗﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﰲ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻮﺍﻓﺮﺓ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻗﺪ ُﻨﻈﺮ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺇﱃ ﺃﺳﺒﺎﺏ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﲢﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ )ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ، ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﻭ ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺑﻄﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ( ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻃﺎﺭ ﺗﻌﺎﻗﺪﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺭﻛﻴﺰﺓ ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺟﻬﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻧﺎ ﺟﺰﺀًﺍ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻠﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ‬ ‫ﺿﺮﻭﺭﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻤﺎﺷﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺃﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺒﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ، ﻭﰲ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ‬ ‫ﻟﻸﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺑﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺘﻬﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﳕﻮ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺬﻛﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ، ﱂ ﺗﺰﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻴﻨﺎﺭﻳﻮ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﻭﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﳊﺎﱄ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺇﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫5‬
  • 10. ‫ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺘﺪﺍﻋﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺗﻮﻇﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﺧﺎﺭﺟﻬﺎ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺳﺠﻠﺖ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺸﺮﻕ ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺿًﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻒ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﺪ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﺮﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻬﻧﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺑﻼﺩ ﺍﳌﻘﺼﺪ ﺇﱃ ﻋﻮﺩﺓ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻼﺩ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ ﻣﺮﺓ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺩﺓ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺗﻘﻞ ﻋﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌًﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ. ﻟﻜﻦ ﺳﻴﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪﻭﻥ ﻇﺮﻭﻓﺎ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺻﻌﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﲢﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪﺭﺓ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪﻳﻦ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻭﻃﺎﻬﻧﻢ.‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺎﺕ، ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻳﻮﻓﺮ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﻏﲑ ﻣﺴﺘﻐﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﻘﺎﰲ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﺄﻟﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺮﻳﺮ ﻣﻦ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﻛﺘﺒﻬﺎ ﳔﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﳋﱪﺍﺀ ﰲ ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻳﻐﻄﻲ‬ ‫ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺃﻭﺟﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ. ﻭﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﶈﺪﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ: ﻳﻠﻘﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻓﻀﻼ ﻋﻦ ﺗﻄﻮﺭ ﻇﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻓﺮﻋﻴﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﳍﺎﻣﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ، ﻫﻮ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻮﺍﻛﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺟﺪ ﻋﱪ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺪﻭﺩ. ﳑﺎ ﻗﺪ ﻳﺴﻬﻢ ﰲ ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﳌﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻟﻸﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﳍﺎ. ﰒ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺘﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻭﻥ ﻭ ﺍﳌﺘﻨﻘﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﳓﻮ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﻬﺑﺎ،‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺑﻠﺪﻫﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ. ﻭﻳﻈﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﰲ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻳﺔ، ﻭﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺸﺘﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 33 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﻔﻮﻕ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺣﻴﺎﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺪﺍﺧﻠﻬﺎ. ﻭﲣﻠﺺ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﶈﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ. ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻭﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻮﺍﺋﺪ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﲡﺔ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺴﻦ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻳﺘﻮﺟﺐ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻧﻈﻢ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﳌﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﻴًﺎ‬ ‫ﻭﲢﺪﻳﺜﻬﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺗﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﺃﻃﻮﻝ ﺃﺟﻼ.‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ: ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ: ﻳﺪﺭﺱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﰲ ﻫﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﲢﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ، ﻭﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠﻴﻢ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺻﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺧﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ. ﻭﰲ ﻇﻞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﺮﻳﻊ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ، ﻭﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﳑﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﱂ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻢ ﺇﺩﻣﺎﺟﻪ ﺣﱴ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﰲ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ‬ ‫6‬
  • 11. ‫ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﺑﺎﳍﺠﺮﺓ، ﳑﺎ ُﻌﺮﺽ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﲑ ﻫﺆﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﻳﻔﺘﻘﺮﻭﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻼﺕ ﺍﳌﻼﺋﻤﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﻡ ﻬﺑﺠﺮﺓ ﻏﲑ ﺷﺮﻋﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﺴﺄﻟﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻻ ﻳﺰﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺧﻴﺎﺭًﺍ ﱂ ُﺴﺘﻐﻞ ﺍﺳﺘﻐﻼﻻ ﺟﻴﺪًﺍ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﺰﺯ ﺍﻟﻮﺻﻮﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ، ﻭﳛﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﻳ‬ ‫ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺘﺸﺎﺭﻙ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮﺟﻴﺔ. ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻄﻼﺏ ﻳﻌﺪ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻗﻮﻳﺔ ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺍﻷﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺮﺍﻙ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ: ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻛﻮﺳﻴﻠﺔ ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻳﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺃﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﺓ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ. ﻭﻳﺄﰐ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻐﺮﺽ ﻭﺿﻊ ﳕﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻓﺘﺮﺍﺿﻲ ﻟﺘﻘﻴﻴﻢ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺑﻨﻈﺮﺍﺋﻬﻢ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻠﲔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﲏ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﳕﻮﺫﺟًﺎ ﻻﺳﺘﺒﺪﺍﻝ ﺟﺰﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﺍﻵﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﳌﺆﻫﻠﲔ، ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﲣﻔﻴﺾ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺯﻣﲏ ﻗﺼﲑ ﻧﺴﺒﻴًﺎ. ﻭﺗﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﱪﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻔﻮﻇﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ﺃﺭﺳﻠﺘﻬﺎ ﻣﺴﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺇﱃ ﺑﻠﺪﺍﻬﻧﻢ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺪﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﲝﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﳐﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ. ﻭﻛﺜﲑًﺍ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻈﻮﺍﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺳﻊ ﻧﻄﺎﻗﹰﺎ. ﻭﻳﺴﻌﻰ ﻫﺬﺍ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺞ ﻟﺘﺰﻭﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﺍﺀ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺒﺼﺮ ﰲ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﳉﻮﺍﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ،‬ ‫ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﰲ ﻗﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻘﻞ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻮﻉ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ،‬ ‫ﻭﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﻧﺴﺎﻥ، ﻭﺍﳊﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ-ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ: ﻭﺿﻊ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﻛﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﻭﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻳﺪﺭﺱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺑﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺪﺍﻥ ﻛﺪﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﺸﺄ ﻭﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻹﺣﻼﻟﻴﺔ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻣﻘﺘﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﻪ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻀﻔﻲ ﺍﻷﳘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ ﺗﻌﺪ ﻣﺜﺎﻻ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﺻﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻬﺎ ﲢﻔﻈﺎﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻔﺘﺢ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﺠﻤﻟﻤﻮﻋﺎﺕ ﳏﺪﺩﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ، ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﱄ ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺛﻠﺔ ﳍﺎ ﻭﺗﺸﺠﻴﻌﻬﺎ. ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻔﻈﺎﺕ،‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﰎ ﺇﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﱐ ﻟﻠﻬﺠﺮﺓ )ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ُﻤﻢ ﰲ ﺍﻷﺻﻞ ﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻼﺟﺌﲔ ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﲔ ﻭﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺘﻬﻢ ﰲ ﺳﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺻ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ( ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﲔ ﻋﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﰲ ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ )ﺿﻤﻦ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ( ﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ: ﻳﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﲏ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺑﺪﺍﺧﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻌﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﺷﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﰲ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﻧﺔ ﻣﻌﻨﻴﺔ ﲝﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻱ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻮﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺭﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻔﺮﺿﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ. ﻭﰲ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻓﻘﺪ ُﺟﺪ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫7‬
  • 12. ‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺼﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ، ﻭﺑﲔ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﺔ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﺴﺘﺪﻋﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﻭﻧﺔ ﻭﺣﺴﻦ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﰲ ﺧﻄﻂ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ. ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﳋﻄﻂ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﻟﻴﺲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺍﻹﺳﺮﺍﻉ ﰲ ﲢﻔﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻧﺘﻌﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ، ﻭﻟﻜﻦ ﳝﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻳﻀﺎ ﺇﺿﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻘﺮﺍﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﳉﻤﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﺘﺄﺻﻞ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﺑﺎﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ.‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺩﺱ: ﺍﻹﻃﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻳﺴﺘﻌﺮﺽ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺍﻷﻃﺮ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ، ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺰ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻣﺘﺜﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ ﳍﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲑ. ﰒ ﻳﺒﺤﺚ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﳌﻴﺪﺍﱐ ﰲ ﺑﻠﺪ ﳏﺪﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ،‬ ‫ﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻂ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺿﻌﻒ ﻣﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﳎﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ﰲ ﺿﻮﺀ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ – ﰱ ﺍﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﺍﻟﺬﻯ ﻳﺼﻌﺐ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﳕﻮﻫﺎ ﻭﺗﺄﺛﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ، ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺳﺘﻈﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﺻﺪ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﺪﻳﻦ ﰲ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﻘﺮﻳﺐ. ﻭﺳﻴﻈﻞ ﻧﻈﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻌﻮﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﱪﻯ ﺍﻟﱵ ﲤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﲢﻘﻴﻖ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻣﻜﺎﻧﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﳌﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﻭﺍﺠﻤﻟﺘﻤﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻀﻴﻔﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ﺍﶈﺎﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪﺓ ﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻨﻈﺎﻡ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻮﺩ ﺍﳌﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ، ﻭﺇﻧﺸﺎﺀ ﻫﻴﺌﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻨﻴﺔ، ﻭﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﲟﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺃﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ ﺃﺑﻮ ﻇﱯ. ﻭﳚﺐ‬ ‫ﺗﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ ﻭﺗﻜﺮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﰲ ﺳﻴﺎﻕ ﺇﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺗﻮﺍﻓﻖ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻮﻯ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ. ﻭﲣﺘﺘﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﲟﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺮﻛﺰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺮﺍﺭ ﺣﻮﺍﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﺑﻮ ﻇﱯ ﻭﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺛﻨﺎﺋﻴﺔ ﻭﻣﺘﻌﺪﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻃﺮﺍﻑ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻠﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﳛﺎﺭﺏ ﳑﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﳚﺎﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺻﻼﺡ ﺃﻃﺮ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﱵ ﻗﺪ ﲤﺜﻞ ﺃﺳﺎﺳًﺎ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻩ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺗﺒﺤﺚ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺑﻌﺾ‬ ‫ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄﻬﻧﺎ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺃﺛﺮ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺮﺳﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻳﻐﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﺑﻊ ﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻲ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻓﺮﻳﻖ ﺍﻹﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﺎﻥ ﺑﻌﺪﺓ ﺧﱪﺍﺀ ﻭﺃﺧﺼﺎﺋﻴﲔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﳎﺎﻝ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳉﻴﺪﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﰎ ﲡﺮﺑﺘﻬﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻹﻟﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﻮﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻀﺎﻳﺎ ﺍﳌﻄﺮﻭﺣﺔ ﰲ ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻻ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻤﺎﺭﺳﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮﻭﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺘﻜﺮﺓ ﻋﺎﳌﻴًﺎ، ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺮﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﺮﺟﻢ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺳﻴﺎﻗﻬﺎ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ. ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ‬ ‫ﻓﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺷﻜﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﰲ ﻧﻈﺮﻬﺗﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻈﺎﻫﺮﺓ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻧﻪ ﰎ ﺑﺬﻝ ﺍﳉﻬﻮﺩ‬ ‫ﻹﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﺃﺣﺪﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ ﻭﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ. ﻭﻧﻈﺮًﺍ ﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺔ ﲨﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺪﻳﺜﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﳌﺘﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ ﺣﻮﻝ ﺍﲡﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﺳﻴﺠﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺭﺉ ﺷﺊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻳﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﻭﺿﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ.‬ ‫8‬
  • 13. ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ 1‬ ‫ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ: ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫1‬ ‫ﻫﺒﺔ ﻧﺼﺎﺭ‬ ‫1-1 ﺍﳌﻘﺪﻣﺔ:‬ ‫ﲟﺮﻭﺭ ﻗﺮﻭﻥ ﺗﻮﺍﺟﺪ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺩﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ، ﻭﻟﻐﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ، ﻭﺗﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻙ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ، ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻲ، ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻼ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳًﺎ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﱴ ﻋﻘﺪﺕ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﹰ‬ ‫ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002 ﻗﺪ ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﻋﻢ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻟﺘﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺣﲔ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻣﺎ ﻬﺗﻴﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳋﻄﺎﺏ ﺍﳌﻌﲏ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻻﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ،‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻝ ﺑﺄﻥ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺃﺑﺮﺯ ﻣﻈﺎﻫﺮ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻣﺎ ﺯﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﺣﱴ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﹰﺎ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺁﺧﺮ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻛﺎﺩﳝﻴﲔ‬ ‫ﻳﺪﺭﺳﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰱ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺍﺋﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﺍﻟﺰﺍﺋﺪ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ، ﻣﻊ ﻃﻠﺐ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻔﻂ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﰱ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﻭﺃﺛﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼ ّﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﺍﳉﺪﻝ ﺑﺸﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻮﻱ ﺍﻟﺬﻯ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﱂ ﻳﻮﺟﻪ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺍﻫﺘﻤﺎﻡ ﺑﺴﻴﻂ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺗﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ.‬ ‫ﻭﻳﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﻠﻴﻤﻴﺔ، ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺗﻌﺘﱪ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻟﻔﻬﻢ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻴﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﻋﻴﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻻﺳﺘﻜﺸﺎﻑ ﻛﻴﻒ ﺳﺎﳘﺖ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﰲ ﺗﺮﺍﻛﻢ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﺸﺮﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺣﺮﺍﻛﻪ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻨﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝ ﰲ ﺍﳉﺰﺀ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺃﺷﻜﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺭﺃﺱ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻴﻤﻲ. ﻭﻳﻨﺘﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺑﺪﺍﺀ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺗﻮﺻﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ.‬ ‫1‬ ‫وآﻴﻠﻪ آﻠﻴﺔ اﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎد واﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻟﺸﺌﻮن اﻟﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ- ﺝﺎﻡﻌﺔ اﻟﻘﺎهﺮة. وﺕﻘ ﱢر اﻟﻜﺎﺕﺒﺔ اﻟﺠﻬﻮد اﻟﺒﺤﺜﻴﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻡﺔ ﻡﻦ اﻟﺴﻴﺪة/‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫راﻧﻴﺎ اﻟﺴﺒﺎﻋﻲ ﻓﻰ هﺬا اﻟﻌﻤﻞ. اﻟﺒﺮیﺪ اﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﻲ: ‪hebanas@aucegypt.edu‬‬ ‫9‬
  • 14. ‫2-1 ﻧﻈﺮﺓ ﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﻗﻒ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ:‬ ‫ﻳﻨﻌﻜﺲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺃﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﲎ. ﻭﰱ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 0002 ﺣﱴ 8002، ﺷﻬﺪﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﻗﻮﻳًﺎ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻈﺮﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ 9.1 ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ 8002‬ ‫)ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 9002 ﺃ(. ﻭﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002، ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﳕﻮ ﰱ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻠﻎ 7.5%. ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﳋﺎﻣﺲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ ﺣﻴﺚ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ 5%، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺰﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﺃﻭﺍﺋﻞ ﺍﻷﻟﻔﻴﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻇﻬﺮ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺀ ﰱ ﺇﻃﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺌﺔ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺗﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ: ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ، ﻭﺍﻻﺿﻄﺮﺍﺑﺎﺕ ﰱ ﺍﻷﺳﻮﺍﻕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻘﺐ ﺍﻻﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﺩ ﰱ ﺗﻘﻴﻴﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻮﻕ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺪﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻣﺮﻳﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻀﻤﻮﻧﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻫﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻱ، ﻭﺃﺧﲑًﺍ، ﺍﻻﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﳊﺎﺩ ﰱ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻄﻴﺔ، ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻐﺬﺍﺋﻴﺔ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺛﺮﺕ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻄﻮﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﻕ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺑﻠﺖ ﺑﻼﺀ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﺣﺴﻨًﺎ ﰱ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﻌﻘﻮﻝ، ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺍﺯﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﳋﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 8002(. ﻭﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺇﱃ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ 6.1 ﺗﺮﻳﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002،‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﰱ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻹﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﳊﺎﺩ ﰱ ﺃﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ، ﻭﻋﻮﺍﻗﺐ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ. )ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ،‬ ‫9002 ﺏ(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 1: ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ )0102 – 8002(‬ ‫%0.02‬ ‫8002‬ ‫%0.51‬ ‫%0.01‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫9002‬ ‫%0.5‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫%0.0‬ ‫0102‬ ‫%0.5‐‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎن‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬ ‫اﻹﻡﺎرات اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 9002 ﺏ‬ ‫ﻳﻮﺿﺢ ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱐ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﺳﺘﻮﺍﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﺑﻄﻴﺌﹰﺎ –ﺇﻥ ﱂ ﻳﻜﻦ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﺳﻠﺒﻴًﺎ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 9002 ﻭ0102، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﺍﺻﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﲟﺎ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ 3% ﻭ 4.61% ﻋﺎﻡ 8002. ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺃﺳﺎﺳًﺎ ﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ.‬ ‫01‬
  • 15. ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 2: ﳕﻮ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ 8002-0102‬ ‫%0.9‬ ‫%0.8‬ ‫%0.7‬ ‫8002‬ ‫%0.6‬ ‫%0.5‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫%0.4‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫9002‬ ‫%0.3‬ ‫%0.2‬ ‫ﻡﺨﻄﻂ‬ ‫ﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫%0.1‬ ‫0102‬ ‫%0.0‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻤﻦ‬ ‫اﻷردن‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎن‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻐﺮب‬ ‫ﺱﻮرﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻥﺲ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ- 9002 ﺏ‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﻬﺪﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻮﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﻔﻂ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﳕﻮًﺍ ﻛﺒﲑًﺍ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 8002، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺘﺮﺍﻭﺡ ﻣﻦ 9.3% ﺇﱃ 5.8%. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮﺍﺕ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ )9002( ﺗﺘﻨﺒﺄ ﺑﻮﻗﻮﻉ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺊ ﰱ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻔﻂ. ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﻫﺬﺍ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻘﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ، ﻭﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻷﺳﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﻨﺬ ﺧﺮﻳﻒ‬ ‫8002، ﳑﺎ ﺃﺿﺮ ﺑﺄﺭﺑﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﺮ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻳﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻼﺕ.‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﻠﻌﺐ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﺩﻭﺭًﺍ ﻛﺒﲑًﺍ ﰱ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﺣﻴﺚ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺴﻬﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ ُﻤﺴ ّ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺍﶈﻠﻲ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻎ )8.93%(، ﺗﻌﻘﺒﻪ ﺍﳋﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )4.73%(، ﰒ‬ ‫ﺧ ﻲ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ )01%(، ﰒ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ )6%(. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺑﻠﻐﺖ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 008 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002، ﻣﻨﻬﺎ 026 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﺇﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻂ ﻭﺍﳌﻨﺘﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﻪ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﻌﺖ‬ ‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 8.31% ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002 ﻟﺘﺒﻠﻎ 254 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺜﻤﺮ ﺑﻔﺎﺋﺾ ﲡﺎﺭﻱ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ 643 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺷﻜﻠﺖ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻨﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﳌﻮﺍﺭﺩ‬ ‫87% ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ. )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 8002(.‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺳﺠﻠﺖ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ 54 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 7002، ﺑﺎﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬ ‫ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺍﳌﺴﺠﻞ ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 6002 ﻭﺍﻟﺬﻯ ﺑﻠﻎ 25 ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭ ﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻣﺮﻳﻜﻲ. ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﻣﻦ 0002‬ ‫ﻭﺣﱴ 4002، ﺣﻴﺚ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﻣﻮﺯﻋﺔ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻌًﺎ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻋﺘﺪﺍﻻﹰ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻨﺬ ﻋﺎﻡ‬ ‫11‬
  • 16. ‫5002، ﺟﺬﺑﺖ ﺛﻼﺙ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﺗﻌﺪ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ، ﻭﻣﺼﺮ، ﻭﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﺃﻛﱪ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻣﺘﻤﺘﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﳏﺘﻠﺔ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﺘﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﲢﻘﻖ ﺍﻵﻥ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻣﺰﺩﻫﺮﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ، ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ01% ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﳐﺼﺼﺔ ﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ. ﻭﻳﺒﺪﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺪﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺒﺎﺷﺮﺓ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻮﺟﻬًﺎ ﺑﻘﻮﺓ ﳓﻮ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ‬ ‫ﺃﻣﺮﺍﻥ: ﺍﻷﻭﻝ: ﺃﻥ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺕ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺳﻌﺮ ﺍﻷﺷﻴﺎﺀ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ )ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻹﺳﻜﺎﻥ(، ﺍﻟﺜﺎﱐ: ﺃﻥ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻴﺴﺖ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺮﺟﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﰱ ﺍﳊﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺴﺎﻫﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﰱ ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﻔﺔ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﱄ، 8002(.‬ ‫3-1 ﺗﻮﺻﻴﻒ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ:‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺿﺢ ﻋﺪﺓ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳌﻮﻗﻒ ﰱ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ.‬ ‫ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺮﺽ: ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﲑﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺪﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ ﺗﺆﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﰱ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﰱ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ. ﻭﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﳕﻮ ﺳﻜﺎﱐ ﻭﳕﻮ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻣﻦ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺎﻃﻖ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ 26% ﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 5102، ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﺘﻨﺨﻔﺾ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻟﲔ ﻟﺘﺼﻞ ﺇﱃ 53% ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺳﺘﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑـ "ﻫﺒﺔ ﺩﳝﻮﻏﺮﺍﻓﻴﺔ" ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﺰﻳﺪ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 5.2%، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺳﻴﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﻟﺔ، ﳑﺎ ﺳﻴﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﺻﺎﰲ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺔ ﺗﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ‬ ‫2,2% ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ، 3002(.‬ ‫ﻭﰱ ﻋﺎﻡ 6002، ﻛﺎﻥ ﻳﺸﻜﻞ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ 221 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ. ﲟﺎ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺣﻮﺍﱄ 83% ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﳌﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ 5002 ﺍﻟﱴ ﻭﺻﻠﺖ ﺇﱃ 53%، ﲟﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﻳﺒﻠﻎ‬ ‫2.3% ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﻤﺘﺪﺓ ﺑﲔ 5991-6002. ﻭﺗﺸﻬﺪ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰱ ﺣﺠﻢ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻃﻮﻝ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 5991-6002. ﻭﲣﺘﻠﻒ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﱴ ﺗﻘﺪﺭ‬ ‫ﺑـ 8.66% ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻐﺔ 8.62. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻣﺎ ﺯﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀًﺎ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻣﺎ ﻗﻮﺭﻥ ﲟﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﻳﺮﺟﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ ﰱ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺱ ﺇﱃ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻷﻛﱪ ﻟﻠﺼﻐﺎﺭ، ﻭﺍﳌﻌﺪﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻗﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺃﺓ. ﻭﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳉﻐﺮﺍﰲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺿﺢ‬ ‫ﺑﺄﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺼﻒ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻳﺘﺮﻛﺰﻭﻥ ﰱ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ )ﻣﺼﺮ، ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ، ﻭﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ، ﻭﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ(. ﻭﲤﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻊ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 07 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ )ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، 9002(‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﲢﻘﻖ ﰲ ﺍﻷﻋﻮﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺧﲑﺓ ﳋﻔﺾ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﳌﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ، ﻣﻦ ﺃﻛﱪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ 2.41% ﻟﻌﺎﻡ‬ ‫0002 ﺇﱃ 3.01% ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 8002، ﻓﻘﺪ ﺑﻘﻴﺖ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺪﻳﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ‬ ‫ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺑﲔ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ )ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ، 9002(. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﻨﺨﻔﺾ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺊ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ، ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻇﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﻣﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﳛﻠﻢ ﻬﺑﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮﻥ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻤﻮﻥ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫21‬
  • 17. ‫ﻣﺮﻭﺭ ﺃﻋﻮﺍﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺿﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻇﻴﻒ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ، ﻛﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﱃ ﺍﺭﺗﻔﺎﻉ ﻣﺮﻋﺐ ﳌﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺗﺘﺮﻛﺰ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﻮﺿﻮﺡ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺪﻭﻝ 1: ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﰱ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﳕﻮ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )%(‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ )%( ﻣﻦ ﺇﲨﺎﱄ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ‬ ‫6002-5991‬ ‫6002-5991‬ ‫6002‬ ‫5991‬ ‫2.3‬ ‫4.83‬ ‫53‬ ‫ﺇﲨﺎﱃ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫3.3‬ ‫8.73‬ ‫3.03‬ ‫ﺍﳉﺰﺍﺋﺮ‬ ‫9.2‬ ‫2.94‬ ‫5.54‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫2.2‬ ‫6.44‬ ‫1.94‬ ‫ﺟﻴﺒﻮﺗﻰ‬ ‫7.2‬ ‫8.04‬ ‫9.73‬ ‫ﻣﺼﺮ‬ ‫4.3‬ ‫8.62‬ ‫62‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺍﻕ‬ ‫1.6‬ ‫3.14‬ ‫1.82‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬ ‫7.5‬ ‫5.16‬ ‫9.55‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫2.3‬ ‫1.83‬ ‫2.03‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎﻥ‬ ‫8.2‬ ‫9.92‬ ‫4.13‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫2.4‬ ‫6.35‬ ‫5.54‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺭﻳﺘﺎﻧﻴﺎ‬ ‫5.2‬ ‫1.34‬ ‫4.93‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ‬ ‫6.3‬ ‫1.44‬ ‫2.63‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫8.1‬ ‫9.14‬ ‫3.95‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬ ‫1.3‬ ‫73‬ ‫9.43‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫9.3‬ ‫9.74‬ ‫9.43‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻮﻣﺎﻝ‬ ‫6.2‬ ‫3.93‬ ‫7.93‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻮﺩﺍﻥ‬ ‫3.4‬ ‫2.73‬ ‫8.03‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬ ‫7.2‬ ‫7.92‬ ‫1.52‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻧﺲ‬ ‫7‬ ‫8.66‬ ‫6.55‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻣﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ‬ ‫8.3‬ ‫6.03‬ ‫9.92‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺪ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ، 9002‬ ‫ﻭﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﺕ ﻋﺪﺓ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﺇﱃ ﺍﳔﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻄﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺳﺘﻴﻌﺎﺑﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻴﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺰﺭﺍﻋﺔ، ﻭﻗﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ، ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻠﺘﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﲑ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫31‬
  • 18. ‫ﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﳋﺼﺨﺼﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻧﻜﻤﺎﺵ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ. ﻭﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺣﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺮﻯ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ ﻧﻈﺮًﺍ ﻻﲡﺎﻩ ﺍﻻﺻﻼﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺮﺍﻣﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻒ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺗﻨﺘﻬﺠﻬﺎ ﺃﻏﻠﺐ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻣﺘﺰﺍﻳﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻹﳚﺎﺩ ﻓﺮﺹ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ. ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﺍﳋﺎﺹ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺃﺿﻌﻒ ﳑﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌًﺎ ﰲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺄﻥ.‬ ‫ً‬ ‫ﻭﰱ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ، ﺃﺻﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﻣﺼﺪﺭًﺍ ﺭﺋﻴﺴﻴًﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻭﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ. ﻭﻣﻊ ﺫﻟﻚ، ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻗﺼﻮﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﳚﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻭﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺗﻪ. ﻭﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ ﲝﻮﺍﱄ 4.64%‬ ‫ﰱ ﻣﺼﺮ، ﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻳﻘﺪﺭ ﺑـ 8.73% ﰱ ﺗﻮﻧﺲ )ﺍﳉﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﳌﺮﻛﺰﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀ- ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، 6002، ﺗﺄﻟﻴﻒ: 2002، ‪ .(Esim and Kuttab‬ﻭﻗﺪ ﻗ ّﺭﺕ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻦ ﻳﻌﻤﻠﻮﻥ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﳍﻢ ﺍﳊﻤﺎﻳﺔ ﲝﻮﺍﱃ 07% ﰱ ﻣﺼﺮ، ﻭﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 53% ﻭ54% ﰱ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ، ﻭﲟﺎ‬ ‫ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 73% ﰱ ﺍﳌﻐﺮﺏ، ﻭﲟﺎ ﻳﻘﺮﺏ ﻣﻦ 33% ﰱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ - ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﳌﻴﺔ ﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ، 6002(.‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺍﻟﻌﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺍﳍﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺁﺛﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺳﺘﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺑﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻌﺔ، ﻭﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﰲ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﳌﻌﺮﺿﺔ ﻟﻠﺨﻄﺮ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺓ ﺃﻛﱪ، ﻣﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﺸﺒﺎﺏ، ﻭﺍﳌﺮﺃﺓ، ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻄﺎﻉ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻲ. ﻭﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ‬ ‫ﳌﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ )9002(، ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺪﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰲ ﴰﺎﻝ ﺃﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺮﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺳﻂ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻣﻦ 4.9% ﻭ‬ ‫3.01% ﺇﱃ 11% ﻭ2.11% ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺍﱄ. ﳑﺎ ﻳﺆﺩﻱ ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺎ ﺑﲔ 41 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻭ61 ﻣﻠﻴﻮﻥ ﻋﺎﻃﻞ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻭﺑﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﳝﺜﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻷﺟﻨﱯ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﹶﺪ ﻣﻌﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﻛﺒﲑﺓ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻘﻮﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﺪﻯ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ، ﻓﺈﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﳝﻜﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﻗﺪ ﻳﻌﺎﱐ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﺺ ﻓﺮﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﳌﺎﻟﻴﺔ.‬ ‫41‬
  • 19. ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 3: ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻄﺎﻟﺔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﻮﻃﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ 8002 - 0102‬ ‫61‬ ‫41‬ ‫21‬ ‫01‬ ‫ﻣﻦ اﻷﻓﺮاد‬ ‫8‬ ‫6‬ ‫4‬ ‫2‬ ‫‐‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺸﺮق‬ ‫ﺵﻤﺎل أﻓﺮﻳﻘﻴﺎ‬ ‫اﻹﺝﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬ ‫8002‬ ‫9002‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﺔ، 9002‬ ‫4-1 ﺗﺪﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ:‬ ‫ﺻّﻔﺖ ﺍﻷﲝﺎﺙ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻨﻤﻄﻰ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻤﻴﺰﻳﻦ: ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺧﺎﺭﺝ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﻨ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻭﻫﻰ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻝ ﻣﻨﻈﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ، ﻭﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻷﺳﻴﻮﻳﺔ ﺇﱃ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻝ ﳎﻠﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﳋﻠﻴﺠﻲ. ﻭﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ، ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻳﺴﺘﻀﻴﻒ ﻋﺪﺩًﺍ ﻛﺒﲑًﺍ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﻘﺴﺮﻳﲔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﲔ، ﲟﺎ ﻳﺸﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﺍﻷﺟﺎﻧﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﺎﻗﹶﺪ ﻣﻌﻬﻢ.‬ ‫ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﺩﺍﺋﻤًﺎ ﻣﺎ ﻳﻮﺻﻒ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺑﺄﻧﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﺸﺎﻃﹰﺎ ﰲ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ.‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻘﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﳌﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺒﻴﻞ ﺍﳌﺜﺎﻝ ﰲ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﰊ، ﺣﻴﺚ ﳝﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺃﻯ ﻣﻮﺍﻃﻦ ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﳊﻖ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻴًﺎ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﺧﺮﻯ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻻﲢﺎﺩ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﺭﰊ. ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻮﻥ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﺍﳍﺠﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻏﲑ ﳐﻄﻄﺔ، ﺇﻻ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﻴﺪ ﻟﻠﺘﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ‬ ‫)6002 ، .‪ .(Nassar, H‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺍﳌﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﲔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﺓ ﺩﺍﺧﻞ ﺍﳌﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﻧﺎ ﻳﻌﺘﱪﺍﻥ ﺇﱃ ﺣﺪ ﻣﺎ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ.‬ ‫51‬
  • 20. ‫ﺍﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﱏ 4: ﺣﺠﻢ ﺍﳌﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻟﻴﲔ ﰱ ﺍﻟﺪﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻵﻻف‬ ‫000,7‬ ‫000,6‬ ‫أﻋﺪاد اﻟﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻴﻦ واﻟﻼﺟﺌﻴﻦ‬ ‫000,5‬ ‫000,4‬ ‫000,3‬ ‫000,2‬ ‫000,1‬ ‫‐‬ ‫اﻹﻡﺎرات‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻮﻡﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻐﺮب‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻮدان‬ ‫اﻷردن‬ ‫ﻋﻤﺎن‬ ‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎن‬ ‫ﺱﻮرﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﻡﺼﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﻄﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻌﻮدﻳﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻴﻤﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺰاﺋﺮ‬ ‫اﻟﺒﺤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫اﻷراﺿﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻠﺔ اﻟﻔﻠﺴﻄﻴﻨﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻬﺎﺝﺮون اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﻮن‬ ‫اﻟﻼﺝﺌﻮن‬ ‫ﺍﳌﺼﺪﺭ: ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺌﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﻢ ﺍﳌﺘﺤﺪﺓ- ﻗﺴﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺟﻬﺎﺕ ﰱ ﺍﳊﺠﻢ ﺍﻹﲨﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﻬﺎﺟﺮﻳﻦ: ﻃﺒﻌﺔ ﻣﻨﻘﺤﺔ‬ ‫5002‬ ‫ﻭﰲ ﺍﻟﺴﺘﻴﻨﺎﺕ، ﻭﺿﻊ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻮ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﱂ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﺍﻷﺳﺲ ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ، ﺗﺰﺍﻣﻨًﺎ ﻣﻊ‬ ‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻣﺰﺩﻫﺮﺓ. ﻭﰲ ﺗﻠﻚ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ، ﺻ ّﻕ ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﻦ ﺍﳊﻜﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻮﺣﺪﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ )4691(. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺍﺷﺘﻤﻠﺖ ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻹﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﰲ ﺍﳊﺮﺍﻙ ﻟﻠﻌﻴﺶ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺍﳊﺮﻳﺔ ﰲ ﻧﻘﻞ ﺍﻷﻣﻮﺍﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻬﻧﺎ ﺍﺷﺘﻤﻠﺖ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﻖ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﲤﻠﻚ ﺃﻱ ﺷﺊ ﰲ ﺃﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺃﺧﺮﻯ. ﻭﺑﻌﺪ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻋﻘﻮﺩ، ﻭﰲ ﻋﺎﻡ 5991، ﺻﺪﻕ ﺍﺠﻤﻟﻠﺲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﰊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﲡﺎﺭﺓ ﺣﺮﺓ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ﻋﺮﺑﻴﺔ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺩﻋﻰ ﻣﺆﲤﺮ ﻭﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻋﻘﺪ ﰲ 5691 ﺇﱃ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻊ ﻟﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ، ﻭﻹﻋﻄﺎﺋﻬﻢ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻏﲑ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ. ﻭﰲ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻉ ﺗﺎﱄ ﺁﺧﺮ ُﻘﺪ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻜﻮﻳﺖ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫52-7691/11/92، ﺻ ّﻕ ﺍﻟﻮﺯﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﺮﰊ ﻳﺸﺠﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻭﻳﻨﻈﻤﻬﺎ. ﻭﻗﺪ ﻗﺎﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺃﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﻋﺸﺮ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺔ –ﻣﻨﻬﺎ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺘﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﻴﻤﻦ ﺍﻟﱵ ﺍﻧﻔﺼﻠﺖ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﺇﱃ ﺩﻭﻟﺘﲔ- ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺼﺪﻳﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ُﺮﻓﺖ‬ ‫ﻋ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﺳﻢ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﲝﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ )ﺭﻗﻢ 2 ﻟﻌﺎﻡ 7691(. ﻭﻗﺪ ﺭﻛﺰﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻴﺴﲑ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺟﺮﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺮﲰﻴﺔ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ(، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻟﻮﻳﺔ ﺍﳌﻮﺍﻃﻨﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺏ ﰲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻞ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ 4(، ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﳌﺴﺎﻭﺍﺓ ﺑﲔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﶈﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺮﺑﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺎﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻭﺍﳌﺰﺍﻳﺎ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ 6(. ﻛﻤﺎ ﺃﻛﺪﺕ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺃﻳﻀًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﳘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫ﻭﺗﺒﺎﺩﻝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﳌﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻴﺴﲑ ﺣﺮﺍﻙ ﺍﻷﻳﺪﻱ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻣﺮﺓ ﺳﻨﻮﻳًﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻞ )ﺍﳌﺎﺩﺓ 3(. ﻭﲟﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺳﺒﻊ ﺩﻭﻝ‬ ‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﻗﺪ ﺻ ّﻗﻮﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻻﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ2، ﻟﺬﺍ ﺑﺮﺯﺕ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻘﺪ ﺍﺗﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻟﺔ.‬ ‫ﺪ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺼ ّﻗﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ 2: ﻤﺼﺭ ﻭﺴﻭﺭﻴﺎ )9691(، ﻭﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ )0791(، ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻭﺩﺍﻥ )2791(، ﻭﻟﻴﺒﻴﺎ‬ ‫ﺩ‬ ‫2‬ ‫)4791(،ﻭﻓﻠﺴﻁﻴﻥ )6791(، ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻐﺭﺏ )5991(‬ ‫61‬