Kent Bye vs Mick West: A Debate on UAP Evidence & Skepticism

Kent Bye vs. Mick West:
A Debate on UAP
Evidence & Skepticism
@KentBye
July 2, 2021

Bye, K. (2017, December 19). THREAD 1/ @tomdelonge's disclosure
campaign has had the UFO community buzzing since leaked Wikileaks
emails to @johnpodesta confirmed high-level contacts. Twitter.
https://twitter.com/kentbye/status/943238420037431297.
kentbye. (2021, June 12). Physics of UAP/UFO, Alcubierre
Warp Drives, & Spacetime Metric Engineering with Dr.
Matthew Szydagis. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MdkMMBoj5o.
42-Month UAP
Twitter Thread
(since Dec 19 2017)
@KentBye
Bye, K. (2017, May 4). Voices of VR Podcast.
https://voicesofvr.com/.
Engineering Background
Oral Historian
Emerging Tech Podcaster
Aspiring Philosopher
1 UAP YouTube Interview
After the Scientific
Coalition for UAP Studies
AAPC Conference
Full slidedeck available at
https://www.slideshare.net/kentbye

Munroe, R. (2008, February 20). Duty Calls.
xkcd. https://xkcd.com/386/.
Why we’re both here...

@KentBye debating @MickWest on the ODNI
Preliminary UAP Assessment
Bye, K. (2021, June 30). doesn't provide any justification for you to make the assertions
that the report says. Twitter. https://twitter.com/kentbye/status/1410285298139820033.

Robinson, M. (2014, December 29). The Socratic
Method, Teaching the Trivium: Dialectic. Trivium 21c.
https://trivium21c.com/2014/12/29/the-socratic-method
-teaching-the-trivium-dialectic/.
Socratic Dialogue
+ Dialectic
Miller, G. (2019, October 1). see this for what 'steelmanning' is. Twitter.
https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1178838156893753345.
I will do my best to “Steel
Man” Mick’s Arguments

● Intro & Context Setting
● Critiques of Mick West’s UAP Hypotheses
○ West on Nimitz Tic Tac
○ The Problem with West’s Occamaric Ranking
○ West’s GIMBAL Rotating Glare Hypothesis
○ West on Corbell’s Drops
○ West on GO FAST not being fast
○ West on ODNI’s UAP Preliminary Assessment
● Appendix: Philosophical References on Skepticism,
Scientific Method, & Epistemology + Tweets

My invitation to debate
Mick on Unidentified
Celebrity Review Podcast,
and then my invitation &
provocation to Mick.
@LuAngeles to @kentbye Twitter DMs (2021, June 30). Invitation & Response
to Debate Mick West on The Unidentified Celebrity Review. Twitter DMs.

West, M. (2013, June 30). My Personal History Of Debunking. Metabunk.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/my-personal-history-of-debunking.1915/.
Mick’s Debunking Goal:
“Remove ‘nonsense’ or false sentiment
& expose false claims

The Unidentified Celebrity Review. (2021, June 21). UFO/UAP LIVESTREAM W/Mick West. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqglLnqL62I.
Mick West:
"If I'm removing one thing that's a
false piece of evidence, then we all
move closer to the truth no matter
what you're underlying feeling is."

West, M. (2020). Escaping the rabbit hole: how to debunk
conspiracy theories using facts, logic, and respect.
Skyhorse Publishing.
West, M. (2006, April 11). Morgellons Watch.
https://web.archive.org/web/20070317234040/http://morgello
nswatch.com/2006/04/11/tea-tree-objects-identified/.
West, M. (2007, May 4). Metabunk.
https://web.archive.org/web/20110923094508/http://contrails
cience.com/persisting-and-spreading-contrails.
Some of Mick’s Evolution in Debunking...

Kean, L. (2017, January 5). Groundbreaking UFO Video Just Released By Chilean Navy. HuffPost.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/groundbreaking-ufo-video-just-released-from-chilean_b_586d37bce4b014e7c72ee56b.
Kean, L. (2017, January 17). The Chilean Navy UFO Video: Is It A Plane? HuffPost.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-chilean-navy-ufo-video-is-it-a-plane_b_587e7277e4b06a0baf6490ef.
West, M. (2017, January 6). Explained: Chilean Navy "UFO" video - Aerodynamic Contrails, Flight IB6830. Metabunk.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/explained-chilean-navy-ufo-video-aerodynamic-contrails-flight-ib6830.8306/.
West, M. (2017, January 17). Chilean UFO Video Explained. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uoqxr6AI7VQ.

Cooper, H., Blumenthal, R., & Kean, L. (2017, December 16). Glowing Auras and 'Black Money': The Pentagon's Mysterious U.F.O. Program.
The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html.

West, M. (2017, December 20). Rotating UFO or Rotating Infrared Glare? YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcsAZTKRv5E.
Mick West:
"It might be that it's fighter jet
going into a banked turn or a flying saucer that's
ignoring gravity. But it might be something simpler:
a rotation of the infrared glare around the engines...
So while this doesn't prove the UFO
is just a distant plane with some
infrared glare, it's certainly a possibility to
consider."
VIDEO: Rotating UFO or Rotating Infrared Glare?

Miller, G. (2019, October 1). see this for what 'steelmanning' is. Twitter.
https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1178838156893753345.

The Unidentified Celebrity Review. (2021, April 14). LIVE STREAM W/MICK WEST. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfRwr6YZQJM.
Mick West on the Nimitz Tic Tac:
● Fravor's size estimation could have been wrong
because the Tic Tac was a novel, featureless object
● "big [perceptual] illusion of it being big and far
away, and it was actually small and close."
● Rather 40ft long, may have been 20ft long.
● Even though he's a great pilot "Doesn't mean that
he can never, ever, ever make a mistake."
● Mike would “bet it was not a craft that accelerated
into hyperspeed.”
● Probably a fancy drone, target ballon, or
perceptual illusion.
● Also… “I don't know what happened.”

West, M. (2021, June 30), Twitter, https://twitter.com/MickWest/status/1410239541517066244

Mick West:
The issue for me [is] are there actually craft that
have the five observables?
Or are we just seeing things that look like they have
the five observables? ...
Some people say that we have so much evidence
that it must be real...
And I kind of disagree. If you look at each thing
individually... [could just be a radar glitch]

History Channel. (2019, June 15). Unidentified: The 5 Observables . YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sstBSuXIW0I0.

Knapp, G. (2018, May 18). I-Team Exclusive: Confidential report analyzes Tic Tac UFO incidents. KLAS.
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/i-team-exclusive-confidential-report-analyzes-tic-tac-ufo-incidents/.

TheZignal. (n.d.). Tic Tac UFO / UAP Encounter Morale Patch Sticker by ToInfinity. Redbubble.
https://www.redbubble.com/i/sticker/Tic-Tac-UFO-UAP-Encounter-Morale-Patch-by-ToInfinity/50818454.EJUG5.

Mick West Argues:
● Fravor's size estimation could have been wrong
because the Tic Tac was a novel, featureless object
● "big [perceptual] illusion of it being big and far
away, and it was actually small and close."
● Rather 40ft long, may have been 20ft long.
● Even though he's a great pilot "Doesn't mean that
he can never, ever, ever make a mistake."
● Mike would “bet it was not a craft that accelerated
into hyperspeed.”
● Probably a fancy drone, target ballon, or
perceptual illusion.
● Also… “I don't know what happened.”
QUESTION: How can you claim that what you’re
doing here is removing false pieces of evidence?

West, M. (2020, June 18). I use a process I call "Occamic Ranking"... Twitter. https://twitter.com/MickWest/status/1273652665138864133.

Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of intelligence analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency. Retrieved from
https://www.cia.gov/static/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf

West, M. (2021, June 11). I study UFOs – and I don't believe the alien hype. Here's why.
The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/11/i-study-ufos-and-i-dont-believe-t
he-alien-hype-heres-why.
West, M. (2021, June 26). This is not the biggest story. It's still the exact same story as
before. Twitter. https://twitter.com/MickWest/status/1408816138507616256.
West, M. (2021, July 2). Aliens are on the list, just not very high. Twitter.
https://twitter.com/MickWest/status/1410818623669690368.
West, M. (2021, June 30). A quick analysis of the new Corbell UFO video. Looks
like planes, possibly drones. Man made... Not aliens. Twitter.

West, M. (2020, October 15). [They] believe in aliens. Twitter.
West, M. (2021, June 11). I study UFOs – and I don't believe the alien hype. Here's why. The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/11/i-study-ufos-and-i-dont-believe-the-alien-hype-heres-why.
West, M. (2021, July 1). Who said anything about aliens?
Pretty much everyone! Twitter.

West, M. (2017, December 20). Rotating UFO or Rotating Infrared Glare? YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcsAZTKRv5E.
Mick West:
"It might be that it's fighter jet
going into a banked turn or a flying saucer that's
ignoring gravity. But it might be something simpler:
a rotation of the infrared glare around the engines...
So while this doesn't prove the UFO
is just a distant plane with some
infrared glare, it's certainly a possibility to
consider."
West: Rotating UFO or Rotating Infrared Glare? (Dec 20 2017)

West, M. (2019, June 30). Gimbal UFO: New Footage Proves Glare Rotation. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Btns91W5J8.
Mick West:
The entire effect is just a camera effect.
Is it solved?
We still don't know what it is.
But the shape is solved.
The rotation is solved.
And the glow, the aura is also solved.
So what we're looking at is something hot.
Something like a jet engine
miles away.
There's nothing to indicate any
advanced technology or aliens.
West: Gimbal UFO: New Footage Proves Glare Rotation (June 30, 2019)

Cuomo Prime Time. (2021, May 21). Expert Explains Navy Footage of UFO Sightings. CNN (Retrieved from Twitter).
https://twitter.com/CuomoPrimeTime/status/1395924723721285638.
Mick West on CNN:
So what we're looking at is a tail
end of a jet plane...

Global News. (2021, June 6). UFO skeptic shares explanation for declassified videos ahead of Pentagon report release. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqXkonM8wLU.
Mick West:
And a lot of these have very reasonable
explanations, especially the ones we have
video evidence for that's been released to the public.

West, M. (2021, March 11). TFTRH #52 - Luis Elizondo: UFOs, UAPs, AATIP, and TTSA. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eozxt_HnPu4.
West: Well respectfully, I don't think you
understand the argument I'm making with the rotating
glare and the horizon...
Elizondo: Maybe not. Please explain.
West: We don't have time to get into it... [~1-minute
explanation]... But because the glare is relative to the
orientation to the camera. This makes the glare rotate,
but the horizon not rotate.
Elizondo: I'm not sure I'm tracking you. I apologize...
[18-second recap attempt]... if you’re going to rotate the
object while not rotating the horizon --
West: Yeah, it's not rotating the object though. It's
rotating a glare, like the shape of a glare...
Elizondo: Oh I see what you’re saying… [back and
forth] Correct me if I’m wrong... Your hypothesis is that the
object that is creating that glare, you’re not actually seeing in
the camera. You’re only seeing the glare. Is that what your--?
West: Correct. Yeah, so. I’m thinking you’re looking
basically at the tail pipe of an F/A-18 that's
like 10 miles away.
Elizondo: No, I understand what you're saying. I will
have to respectfully disagree... The data we had did not
demonstrate that you were just looking at a glare.

West, M. (2021, March 11). TFTRH #52 - Luis Elizondo: UFOs, UAPs, AATIP, and TTSA. YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eozxt_HnPu4.
Elizondo: Are you certain that there's not other
video or also perhaps radar data that correlates
with the pilot's testimony?
West: That would be great, but unfortunately I've
only got the video to go by. But my point there isn't
really that there may be other data. My point is
that people are taking the video itself, and
they're saying this video itself shows these things [i.e.
flying off rapidly off the side by Chad Underwood and
Unidentified TV show.] And I would put it the video
itself could be interpreted as just a regular object not
making any sudden moves.
Elizondo: I think you're certainly entitled to your own
opinions and own interpretation. I will tell you with my
experience... that was not the interpretation. And in the
government we tend to look at things holistically. We try
to avoid single-source reporting. From an
intelligence perspective, it's kind of like a no-no for us -- just
like in the world of reporting you never look at a single
source. And so that's why it's important to look at these
videos in the greater context in the manner in which they
were taken and the circumstances... A video itself is only
going to tell you so much. And that's why you need additional
information to look at that can either corroborate or refute
that information... [i.e.] gun camera footage, what you
hear from eyewitness testimony, what you see on the
Hawkeye radar information, which is backed up by
the SPY-1 data from the Princeton, and possibly...
other sensors that were in the area at the time. Now you've
got a much more complete picture of what's actually going
on.
West: It'd be great if I could get that picture, of course...

Cooper, H., Blumenthal, R., & Kean, L. (2017, December 16). Glowing Auras and 'Black Money': The Pentagon's Mysterious U.F.O. Program.
The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html.
West’s Rotating Glare Theory Relies on this Being a
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There’s a whole fleet of them.
Look on the SA.
[Situational Awareness Screen]

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqglLnqL62I.
Mick West:
This isn't my opinion. This isn't me saying,
"I'm an expert. The GO FAST video is
going slow and you should trust everyone
else." It's saying, "This is the math. These
are the numbers on the screen. These are
the angles. You can do it yourself." Or you
can find a high schooler to verify it.

West, M. (2021, March 11). TFTRH #52 - Luis Elizondo: UFOs, UAPs, AATIP, and TTSA. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eozxt_HnPu4.
Elizondo:
I can tell you that several individuals that were very qualified,
particularly in that collection platform were able to discern
that this was an object that was indeed moving
at a fairly fast speed. I can’t tell you what that speed is,
but I know what was indicated to me after quite a bit of
analysis.
And by the way, let me make this clear. This wasn’t the world
according to AATIP. We truly had some of the finest
engineers, scientists, and other organizations within the
intelligence community. Providing their data to us. Because
we’re not engineers, right. So we really needed those experts
to tell us what it is we were seeing.
And then the discussion with the pilots were also very
interesting. Because according to them. And again,
according to radar data -- not just what you
see in the camera. That the performance characteristics
of this object [GO FAST] that there was some very
compelling, um, [pause] signatures
associated with that video.

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Quotes about John Milton’s Areopagitica in The New Radical Documentary
"In order for this animating contest of
liberty to really happen, for truth to
prevail, you have to have this wide open
marketplace of ideas and speech."
-- Cody Wilson
Adam Bhala Lough. (2017). The New Radical. The Orchard. https://tubitv.com/movies/515476/the-new-radical.
"The moment you still a voice by
destroying every copy of a book, you may
be preventing a future generation from
assembling a larger, fuller, more
complete understanding of the truth."
-- Raymond Frontain

Regarding the knowledge gained from eye witness testimony
Goldman, Alvin and Cailin O’Connor, "Social Epistemology", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Spring 2021 Edition), Edward N. Zalta
(ed.), Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2021/entries/epistemology-social/.

@PostDisclosure + @EthicalSkeptic vs @MickWest

@EthicalSkeptic on Ockham’s Razor Plurality

@EthicalSkeptic’s Definition of Disclosure

@EthicalSkeptic on Identification, Friend or Foe (IFF)

@EthicalSkeptic the Demarcation of Skepticism

@EthicalSkeptic on how @MickWest’s analysis lacks full context of data

Final Thoughts from @MickWest & @EthicalSkeptic

Kent Bye vs Mick West: A Debate on UAP Evidence & Skepticism

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