A keynote symposium talk to Grow Canada, December 7, 2016. The topic was the effects of climate change and how ag producers and agricultural researchers are studying opportunities to adapt to warmer temperatures. The session focuses on communications strategies that emphasize adaptation over the contentious issues of cause or mitigation. The hope it to continue productive agricultural production without becoming mired in policy discussion, and the science of adaptation will inform discussion in climate change cause and mitigation.

1. Agriculture Adaptation to Changing
Climate
Kevin M. Folta
Professor and Chairman
Horticultural Sciences Department
kfolta.blogspot.com
@kevinfolta kfolta@ufl.edu
www.talkingbiotechpodcast.com

2. Structure
Why plants are vulnerable to environmental irregularities
Evidence of changes in agricultural and natural product
produciton
How science is adapting plants to meet changing
conditions
How production practices are changing

3. Why does this matter?
Farming must be productive and profitable
Farmer incomes
Food security
Acknowledging a changing climate does not have to be a
judgement call-- it does not have to be good or bad.

4. Why does this matter?
We can discuss climate associated issues in
terms of
1. Mitigation
2. Adaptation

6. Plants are
complex,
stationary
capsules of
environmental
sensors

7. What are the Trends in Canada?

8. Climate-Inspired Trends in Canadian Agriculture
Shorter and warmer winter (season 2 weeks
longer compared to 1950)
Water becoming increasingly a limiting factor
Generally positive in that extended season allows
cultivation of a wider array of horticultural crops,
corn, soybeans, forages.

9. Climate-Inspired Trends in Canadian Agriculture
1931-1960 1981-2010
Difference

10. Natural ranges of trees affected by change, should
technology be used to adjust populations?

11. What are the Effects Being Observed?

12. “Biotic Effects”
Plants are bred to perform under specific
conditions, some are temperature related.
Thermoperiod
DIF
Chilling requirements
Germination
Flower abortion and low fruit set

13. Corn tassels abort under high temperatures.

14. Insufficient Chilling Hours are Decreasing Yields

15. Higher temperatures are not conducive to general
plant growth

16. Higher temperatures are not conducive to general
plant growth

17. • Corn: high nighttime temperatures, high temperatures
during pollination, water stress
• Soybean: water stress, high temperatures
• Wheat and small grains: extreme events, frost during
flowering, water stress
• Rice: temperature extremes during pollination, water
management
• Cotton: high temperatures during boll fill
• Pasture and rangeland: water stress
• Fruit trees: chilling requirements not met, high
temperatures during fruit development
• Specialty crops: water stress, high temperatures
Effects and Sensitivity Vary by Commodity

18. • Insect pests
• Greater numbers, increased insecticide resistance
• Geographic ranges increases & decreases
• Imports from foreign sources
• Pathogens
• Host-pathogen response changes (plants, insects, non-crop
reservoirs)
• Cultural control measures may be less reliable
• Extreme events can spread
• Weeds
– Increased vigor, herbicide resistance
– Geographic range increases & decreases
Increased Biotic Stresses
Will Significantly Affect Agriculture

19. Emergence of new pest and pathogens
In Canada, warmer weather, increased soy production
welcomes Asian Soybean Rust
Higher CO2 makes soybean more susceptible to the
Japanese beetle (Casteele et al., 2008)
Higher CO2 makes corn more susceptible to the Western
corn rootworm (Schumann 2014)

20. Emergence of new pest and pathogens
In Canada, warmer weather, increased soy production
welcomes Asian Soybean Rust
Higher CO2 makes soybean more susceptible to the
Japanese beetle (Casteele et al., 2008)
Pest/pathogen pressure is affected by
climate
Range of insect
Winter kill
Optimal conditions for
bacterial/fungal pathogens

21. Elevation of Threats from Existing Pathogens
Apple Scab

22. Trees are affected by warmer temperatures – Fruit and Lumber

23. Sea level rise and salt water intrusion

24. Sea level rise and salt water intrusion

25. How Can We Adjust?
Cultural?
Genetics?

26. Responses of AgriculturalResponses of Agricultural
SystemsSystems
Changes in farmer behaviorChanges in farmer behavior
Changes in production, consumption,Changes in production, consumption,
prices, and trade patternsprices, and trade patterns
– Domestic and global market responseDomestic and global market response
– U.S. impacts depend on global responseU.S. impacts depend on global response
Economic effects depend on domestic andEconomic effects depend on domestic and
global adaptive capacityglobal adaptive capacity
– Impacts vary by region, by sector, and byImpacts vary by region, by sector, and by
stakeholder groupstakeholder group

27. How Can We Speed Development of
Adapted Varieties?

28. Rapid Adaptation – Plant Breeding
It is possible to breed and select new elite
lines with inherent resistance to climate-
associated biotic and abiotic stress.

30. Genomic Selection
Genomic selection is an approach for improving quantitative traits
in large plant breeding populations. It is based on whole‐genome
molecular markers (high density markers and high throughput genotyping).‐
Flavell, 2010

31. Genomic Selection
Jannink et al. 2010

32. Transgenics
Can add traits from across species (like the Bt gene for insect resistance)
Can suppress traits or viruses using RNAi (as in the papaya and potato)

33. Transgenics
Can add traits from across species (like the Bt gene for insect resistance)
Can suppress traits or viruses using RNAi (as in the papaya and potato)

34. The Gene Editing Speeds Variety Improvement

35. The Gene Editing Revolution

37. Gene Editing
Horn Gene Horn Gene
NO HORNS!!!
Good beef
Bad milkHORNS!!!
Bad beef
Great milk
Horn Gene
NO HORNS!!!
Bad beef
Good milk

38. Gene Editing

39. Examples of Crops with Enhanced
Adaptation Traits
Response to direct threats

40. We
understand
the genes
that matter

41. Breeding for Heat Stress

42. Engineering Water Deficit Stress Resistance
Company advertisement
Not peer reviewed

43. Gene Editing - Edited out a floral repressor

44. Examples of Crops with Enhanced
Adaptation Traits
Response to indirect threats

45. miRNA Approaches Can Target Insects

47. Conclusion
Focusing on adaptation acknowledges change;
presents solutions based on unified concerns.
Food security hinges on rapid adaptation
Accelerated breeding techniques and genetic
engineering will be required to meet speed of
change. Gene editing will be critical.
Adaptations will affect flowering time, chilling
requirements and overall response to stress.

48. Challenge!
We are measuring effects of temperature on
agricultural production
In addition to mitigation efforts, adaptation will be
critical
We need all tools on deck
This requires the agricultural community to be active
in promoting strategies to develop adapted
materials

49. kfolta.blogspot.com
@kevinfolta
kfolta@ufl.edu
www.talkingbiotechpodcast.com
iTunes, Stitcher, Player FM
Thank you .
Science Advocate Community
All funding, reimbursement:
www.kevinfolta.com/transparency

50. “Don’t tell me it can’t be done,
tell me what needs to be done
and help me do it.”